Predict the state of the Great Slam Race by EOY 2020

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R

Robert F

Hall of Fame
Fed--Hopeful 21. Consistency is starting to be his issue. Can't win a slam if you have a bad day in the later rounds. What works in his favor is choosing the tournaments for him and building training blocks to go deep.
Nadal--Probable 18. Thiem and Djokovic are the ones who can prevent this. If healthy, he might be able to pick something up at Wimby or US Open.
Djokovic--16 min, 18 max. Based on how he came back since Wimby, it's hard to not see him getting at least 2. Seems like he is done playing games with his training team.

Based on the end of the year 2018, 2019 will still probably belong to the big 3.
2020 is tough to say, their health vs. the developing youth could shut all 3 of them down.
 
Phoenix1983

Phoenix1983

G.O.A.T.
NKDM said:
Some Fed fans think Roger has NO chance to win one more slam. This is recency bias at it’s worst.

We know hand injury issues have plagued him since Wimby18, which he admitted affected his forehand (despite which he had a increasingly better latter half of the season). This is good news because there is hope he can recover a better state of play than the last 6 months

Assuming he can keep scheduling his season well and stay fit, I don’t see why him winning another Wimbledon or a fast court AO is out if the question.

The age issue is overblown. Connors was in the semis at the USO in his 40s. Roger has an infinitely better suited game than Connors for playing at a later age.

I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
Click to expand...

Actually Connors was 39, and that USO semis run was his only decent run at a slam after the age of 37. I do think Federer can win one more slam, but it will have to be very soon.
 
J

justasport

Professional
NKDM said:
Some Fed fans think Roger has NO chance to win one more slam. This is recency bias at it’s worst.

We know hand injury issues have plagued him since Wimby18, which he admitted affected his forehand (despite which he had a increasingly better latter half of the season). This is good news because there is hope he can recover a better state of play than the last 6 months

Assuming he can keep scheduling his season well and stay fit, I don’t see why him winning another Wimbledon or a fast court AO is out if the question.

The age issue is overblown. Connors was in the semis at the USO in his 40s. Roger has an infinitely better suited game than Connors for playing at a later age.

I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
Click to expand...
Excellent post!
 
BeatlesFan

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
NKDM said:
Some Fed fans think Roger has NO chance to win one more slam. This is recency bias at it’s worst.
Click to expand...
@NKDM Actually it’s the antithesis of regency bias. I base my belief that Fed won’t win any more slams on the entirety of tennis history. If he wins another slam, he will be the oldest champion to do so.

Connors has nothing to do with the argument. He last won a slam at age 31, so the analogy is moot. He wasn’t a factor in any major after that age and was routinely destroyed by Lendl (lost his last 17 matches to him). Connors was not “into his 40’s” when he made one semi at the USO. He turned 39 the day he was destroyed by Courier in that one memorable semi. ;)
 
D

Deleted member 763024

Guest
BeatlesFan said:
@NKDM Actually it’s the antithesis of regency bias. I base my belief that Fed won’t win any more slams on the entirety of tennis history. If he wins another slam, he will be the oldest champion to do so.
Click to expand...

By the same entirety of tennis history did you predict the 20th slam earlier this year? Or the oldest No.1 ranking at 37? 3 more slams after a gap of 5 years winning none at the age of 35? That too after returning from a 6 month surgery lay-off.

The only reason people are predicting doom and gloom is because in tennis stock market terms he didn’t quite end the year the way he began (AO Rotterdam).

Suddenly the all-explaining “age” has become a factor. Every day that he breathes in oxygen and breathes out CO2, Roger is leaking tennis abilities like a punctured hot air balloon.

It’s understandable when neutrals or detractors spew this stuff (and have been doing so for a decade) but I wish people who call themselves fans could show some respect to this once-in-a-lifetime athlete by acknowledging Roger has a chance at a slam until the day he hangs up his racket.
 
NoleFam

NoleFam

Bionic Poster
After Djokovic won Wimbledon 2018, I predicted this...
NoleFam said:
I think Djokovic will now win at least 4 more before he retires. After that I have no idea. 4 more for me seems like a lock. The movement is still there, the serve, the return, the hunger. I think 4 more is a lock at this point.
Click to expand...
Well he caught 17 even faster than I predicted so anything else will be gravy at this point. Nadal is almost certain to hit 20 this year.
 
S

Sexy Fed

New User
TripleATeam said:
Novak: I can see Novak getting 3 or maybe 4 in the next 8 slams. The distribution is impossible to predict, but I think 1 or 2 AO, 1 WIM, and 1 US or maybe French, if Rafa falls off.

Rafa: Close to guaranteed for 1 of the next 2 RG. 95% of 1 RG, 70% at 2. I could also see a US or Wimby, but maybe ~40% chance of that over the next 2 years. Don't see an AO.

Fed: We have been writing him off for years, but one of these has to be his last... and given how he played at the end of last season, I think AO18 might have been it.

Novak: 17 probably.
Rafa: 19 or so.
Fed: Still the frontrunner at 20.
Click to expand...
Imba
 
BGod

BGod

G.O.A.T.
BGod said:
It really is only 8 tournaments. I have Novak pegged for the next 2 but it gets dicey after that as he might lose motivation again. Honestly if he got the Calendar Slam he might just call it a day given what happened in 2016. With guys like Anderson and Cilic sneaking in I think 2 of 8 Slams have to be won by wildcard guys so that leaves 6 for the Big 3. Federer's 2017 is a complete outlier for sure but you pencil him in for 1 Slam because he's the GOAT and deserves that BoD. So with 5 remaining and me already have said I think Novak gets 2 this year I'll finish it by saying 3-2-1 in Novak's favor. Nadal has won 1 Slam in 5 years outside of the French and as much of a safety net as it is, cannot be endless and I really don't see more than 2 Slams next 2 years.

Federer: 21
Nadal: 19
Djokovic: 17
Click to expand...

Thiem wins French
Fed or Milos wins Wimbledon
Stan or WC wins USO
 
clout

clout

Hall of Fame
Assuming Rafa and Nole win RG and WI, respectively and someone else wins the USO, then by year end it’ll prob be:

Fedal - 20
Nole - 18

I do think there’s a major possibility of Nole and Rafa splitting the again though
 
Third Serve

Third Serve

Talk Tennis Guru
Not gonna lie OP (whoever he/she is) is pretty close. The results he lists could still play out that way, even if it's unlikely.
 
titoelcolombiano

titoelcolombiano

Legend
titoelcolombiano said:
AO 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 17, Djoker 15)
RG 19: Rafa (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 15)
WIM 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 16)
USO 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 17)
AO 20: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 18)
RG 20: Rafa (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 18)
WIM: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 19)
USO: None of the big 3 (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 19)

After this Rafa will be gunning for 20 at RG 2021 which, although he'll be an old man, will make him ultra-motivated. Snagging that elusive second AO in 2019 would greatly boost his chances of making 20 also.

Djoker is a year younger so he has time but is also behind the other two so anything less than a multi-slam year could be fatal to his chance of making 20.

Fed is still capable at slams but at 38 is more susceptible to the field. He would need the seas to part for him to get 21.
Click to expand...

If Djokovic wins RG my prediction is right on track. Also, if Djokovic wins RG and Wimbledon and Thiem or someone else other than Fedalovic wins the US Open I've picked it like a dirty nose.
 
RaulRamirez

RaulRamirez

Legend
Third Serve said:
Don't worry, I don't hold it against you. I'm sure I could dig up some of my first posts from early 2019 that ended up incorrect. I thought it was funny that you said OP was underselling the next gen when he may in fact have been "overselling" the next gen.
Click to expand...
All true, and in good fun. And yeah, though I'm an immense Big 3 fan, I did not envision 13 straight!
 
zagor

zagor

Bionic Poster
At this point I'd say:

Novak - 18
Nadal - 21
Fed - 20

Novak and Nadal could easily end up with 25+ slams by their careers end.
 
zagor

zagor

Bionic Poster
guitarra said:
Yeah, I think many people underestimated both Rafa and Novak. Those who don't make predictions are never wrong. There's no shame though - those champions are redefining the sport as it is now.
Click to expand...

I think it's also about overestimating the rest of the field.

You still have people picking Thiem to win FO for example.
 
weakera

weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
titoelcolombiano said:
AO 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 17, Djoker 15)
RG 19: Rafa (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 15)
WIM 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 16)
USO 19: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 17)
AO 20: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 18, Djoker 18)
RG 20: Rafa (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 18)
WIM: Djoker (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 19)
USO: None of the big 3 (Fed 20, Rafa 19, Djoker 19)

After this Rafa will be gunning for 20 at RG 2021 which, although he'll be an old man, will make him ultra-motivated. Snagging that elusive second AO in 2019 would greatly boost his chances of making 20 also.

Djoker is a year younger so he has time but is also behind the other two so anything less than a multi-slam year could be fatal to his chance of making 20.

Fed is still capable at slams but at 38 is more susceptible to the field. He would need the seas to part for him to get 21.
Click to expand...


This was EXTREMELY close to being DEAD ON accurate.

Literally only missed on USO 19 and WIM 20 being cancelled. 6/7 slams played, predicted accurately.


Very nice call!
 
ForumMember

ForumMember

Hall of Fame
King No1e said:
I just can't see Federer winning Slams. (Yes, we've said this numerous times only to be disproven). But he's 37 now. He's given everything he's got and more over the last 2 decades. We've been privileged to watch the legendary career unfold. But as much as we wished it, time never freezes.
Nadal: 3 more over the next 2 years (2 RG's, and one Wimbledon or possibly USO). Attackdal of 2018 who only lost 2 completed matches will be a scary opponent for the field
Djokovic: 4 more (3 AO, 1 more USO, or 2 and 2. As much as I would love to see him play into his 30's like Fed and Agassi and win 4 more AO, I can't pin my hopes on that because it's a setup for disappointment)
Nadal and Federer finish with 20, Djokovic with 18. Djokovic finishes as the undisputed AO GOAT and Nadal the undisputed RG GOAT, and Fed the Wimbledon GOAT.
Click to expand...
It was a great call.. most likely would have been 100% true not for throat of that lineswoman.
 
TripleATeam

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
TripleATeam said:
Novak: I can see Novak getting 3 or maybe 4 in the next 8 slams. The distribution is impossible to predict, but I think 1 or 2 AO, 1 WIM, and 1 US or maybe French, if Rafa falls off.

Rafa: Close to guaranteed for 1 of the next 2 RG. 95% of 1 RG, 70% at 2. I could also see a US or Wimby, but maybe ~40% chance of that over the next 2 years. Don't see an AO.

Fed: We have been writing him off for years, but one of these has to be his last... and given how he played at the end of last season, I think AO18 might have been it.

Novak: 17 probably.
Rafa: 19 or so.
Fed: Still the frontrunner at 20.
Click to expand...
I also did pretty well here. Rafa pulled off the USO I put him at 40% chance of getting (by the skin of his teeth), Novak pulled off an AO that was really close but lost out on a USO that was his for the taking.

My failures even out in the end.
 
Beckerserve

Beckerserve

Legend
Deleted member 763024 said:
Some Fed fans think Roger has NO chance to win one more slam. This is recency bias at it’s worst.

We know hand injury issues have plagued him since Wimby18, which he admitted affected his forehand (despite which he had a increasingly better latter half of the season). This is good news because there is hope he can recover a better state of play than the last 6 months

Assuming he can keep scheduling his season well and stay fit, I don’t see why him winning another Wimbledon or a fast court AO is out if the question.

The age issue is overblown. Connors was in the semis at the USO in his 40s. Roger has an infinitely better suited game than Connors for playing at a later age.

I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
Click to expand...
Nadal hit 20 as most predicted.
 
Turning Pro

Turning Pro

Hall of Fame
Day_Tripper said:
It put into perspective how unlikely Nadal is to catch Federer the gap between them in regards to slams is the same as it was 13 years ago!
Nadal has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. Djokovic has zero chance of eclipsing Federer. The only race is between Nadal and Djokovic for who finishes second.
Click to expand...

Now come back out of the woodwork and face the wrath!!!
 
BeatlesFan

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Xemi666 said:
The 1st posts are hilarious :-D
Click to expand...
tenor.gif


Bump any prediction thread of today in 5 years and they will be hilarious as well.
 
Rafa4GOAT

Rafa4GOAT

Professional
Rafa4GOAT said:
Federer: I think he has no slams left in him, but we’ve saying that for ages, so I give him one last hurrah at the Australian Open.

Nadal: He’s definitely got the next two French Opens, I think he can win one or two more out of clay. Hopefully one Australian Open, maybe another Wimbledon. So 3-4

Djokovic: I say Novak takes the other three, I was originally thinking the NextGen take one, but they sure as hell ain’t taking one from Nole.

Overall, I say Djokovic takes 2019 AO, Nadal takes RG and Wimbledon, either Djokovic or a NextGen for USO (I know I said NextGen ain’t taking one from Djokovic, but keep reading). 2020 AO, either Djokovic takes it or Fedr has his last hurrah, RG for Rafa, Wimbledon goes to Djokodal or NextGen, the USO is between Djokodal. Tally then stands at
Fedr: 21
Nadl: 20-21
Djokr: 17-18
Click to expand...
Pretty happy with this, C virus ended up taking the NextGen spot in my prediction
 
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