Predicting Nationals: 40 & Over 4.5+ men

[schmke]

Latest prediction up on my blog.

The top 4 teams are somewhat separated from the rest, The Californias, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic, but Pacific NW is pretty close, and Mydwest and Eastern would be next to step up if someone falters.

How the 5.0s are used is the wildcard here and can make predicting tricky. Top-10 averages can be inflated by a really high rated 5.0 but that is just one court he can play on.

 

[J011yroger]

Jolly predicts mid pack finish for Eastern.

J

 

[schmke]

Jolly predicts mid pack finish for Eastern.

J

Most likely record, 2-2 (37%) but 33% chance of 3-1. Just 9% chance of 4-0.

 

[J011yroger]

Most likely record, 2-2 (37%) but 33% chance of 3-1. Just 9% chance of 4-0.

Jolly's less scientific analysis: They have a couple of hustlas and a solid middle but not enough to get them over the hill. No X factor.

J

 

[2ndServe]

where is this being played?

 

[J011yroger]

where is this being played?

Vegas.

J

 

[iNeverSlice]

Jolly predicts mid pack finish for Eastern.

J

Have faith Jolly

 

[J011yroger]

Have faith Jolly

You got it backwards; Faith had me.

J

 

[OnTheLine]

There will be no weather issues this weekend .... sunny, 80F degrees, light breeze at 10-15mph .... players should be happy and play nothing but regular full set tennis.

Last week's 3.0 nationals also went very smoothly according to folks at the club ... great weather, a little windy on Sunday ... schedule went like clock work.

 

[BeyondTheTape]

All in favor of moving the ENTIRE 2019 Nationals to Vegas. DILLY DILLY.

 

[OnTheLine]

All in favor of moving the ENTIRE 2019 Nationals to Vegas. DILLY DILLY.

no no ... perhaps just some ... I am getting a little tired of getting kicked out of my club. Our league matches this weekend are at a park with only 2 courts.
(Can you imagine playting at a park? the horror of being around the riff raff!)

 

[J011yroger]

All in favor of moving the ENTIRE 2019 Nationals to Vegas. DILLY DILLY.

It would be a ridiculous advantage to any guy with an arm on him.

J

 

[OnTheLine]

It would be a ridiculous advantage to any guy with an arm on him.

J

You think so? I think it would be more of an advantage to A. those that already play at altitude and B. Those who hit more control and angle shots

Those who go big (and particularly deep) may need more adjustment in order to find the court

 

[2ndServe]

Vegas.

J

I hope it's not being played at UNLV, everytime I've been there it's like a semi hurricane. I'm not even sure how you LV guys play there all the time.

 

[J011yroger]

You think so? I think it would be more of an advantage to A. those that already play at altitude and B. Those who hit more control and angle shots

Those who go big (and particularly deep) may need more adjustment in order to find the court

I hit a first serve 8' up the back fence, it was above the gate door.

J

 

[winchestervatennis]

I hit a first serve 8' up the back fence, it was above the gate door.

J

You’re supposed to aim for the box, big guy!

 

[OnTheLine]

I hope it's not being played at UNLV, everytime I've been there it's like a semi hurricane. I'm not even sure how you LV guys play their all the time.

I know not a soul that ever plays at UNLV, ... but yes, Vegas can have pretty strong winds, especially in the spring ... if you can't play with winds over 25mph, you aren't good enough for Vegas.

And @J011yroger I will never let you forget that you scoffed when I said my serves hit the back fence on one bounce ...

But, when we have lowlanders come and hit, they are hitting the back fence on the fly with their groundstrokes until they adjust.

 

[Pickle9]

But, when we have lowlanders come and hit, they are hitting the back fence on the fly with their groundstrokes until they adjust.

Got that @5point5 depth!

 

[dblsonly]

Schmke, will you be doing a 40+ 4.0 Men's write up?

 

[schmke]

Schmke, will you be doing a 40+ 4.0 Men's write up?

Yep, I will, probably Monday or Tuesday next week.

 

[J_R_B]

Schmke, will you be doing a 40+ 4.0 Men's write up?

Middle States.

/thread

 

[BeyondTheTape]

Middle States.

/thread

Danggggg. @J_R_B with the mic drop. Calling end of thread.

 

[J_R_B]

Danggggg. @J_R_B with the mic drop. Calling end of thread.

Middle States 4.0 40+ has been runner up in 2013, 15, 16, & 17. They're taking the next step this year.

 

[dblsonly]

Not if my Mydwest team has anything to say about it!

 

[J011yroger]

No scores from the 7:30 match yet.

J

 

[OnTheLine]

That is because it is only 8:30am here when you posted .... hope no match is so short at Nationals ...

 

[J011yroger]

Just finished!

J

 

[J011yroger]

That is because it is only 8:30am here when you posted .... hope no match is so short at Nationals ...

It's not easy being stupid.

J

 

[mikeler]

I hope it's not being played at UNLV, everytime I've been there it's like a semi hurricane. I'm not even sure how you LV guys play there all the time.

Darling Tennis Center and Red Rock Country Club.

 

[schmke]

Six matches played/recorded, everyone has been 3-2. Close!

 

[damazing]

So far all matches have gone 3-2. I've listed the losing teams court wins below, it looks like having good singles didn't help out two of the teams that couldn't close the deal with the doubles.
1S 1D
1S 2S
1S 2S
2D 3D
1S 2D
2S 1D

 

[schmke]

SoCal beat Hawaii 5-0, otherwise every first match for all the teams was 3-2.

 

[schmke]

Jolly's less scientific analysis: They have a couple of hustlas and a solid middle but not enough to get them over the hill. No X factor.

J

Dude, they won 3-2 again. 2-0!

 

[J011yroger]

Dude, they won 3-2 again. 2-0!

Patience young Skywalker.

J

 

[schmke]

Patience young Skywalker.

J

Ha, I'm patient, have no dog in the race. You aren't a bit worried the mid-pack prediction might not come to fruition? ;-)

 

[schmke]

And my updated simulation says Eastern and SoCal are the only two teams with 4-0 records most likely. Four others have 3-1 records most likely.

This is based on current records, ratings changes from today's results, and the remaining schedule. For @J011yroger, Eastern plays a 1-1 Middle States team (won and lost 5 courts) and an 0-2 Hawaii who hasn't won a court.

 

[J011yroger]

And my updated simulation says Eastern and SoCal are the only two teams with 4-0 records most likely. Four others have 3-1 records most likely.

This is based on current records, ratings changes from today's results, and the remaining schedule. For @J011yroger, Eastern plays a 1-1 Middle States team (won and lost 5 courts) and an 0-2 Hawaii who hasn't won a court.

The draw is rigged!

J

 

[schmke]

The draw is rigged!

J

Whomever did it did a good job. Eastern 4-0 and #2 seed. SoCal and Caribbean fill out the semis.

 

[mikeler]

The draw is rigged!

J

The top 3 tomorrow all had Hawaii on their schedule. Four flights of 4 teams with the winner of each flight advancing would have been more fair than this 16 team free for all. Boo to the player party too USTA. Not a great ending to the season.

 

[OnTheLine]

The top 3 tomorrow all had Hawaii on their schedule. Four flights of 4 teams with the winner of each flight advancing would have been more fair than this 16 team free for all. Boo to the player party too USTA. Not a great ending to the season.

Out of curiousity, what was wrong with player party? I know one of the organizers and would be happy to pass feedback along.

 

[schmke]

The top 3 tomorrow all had Hawaii on their schedule. Four flights of 4 teams with the winner of each flight advancing would have been more fair than this 16 team free for all. Boo to the player party too USTA. Not a great ending to the season.

But with the traditional 4 teams 4 flights arrangement, each team would only get 3 matches, and getting everyone 4 was one of the goals (and perks) for the new format.

 

[J011yroger]

The top 3 tomorrow all had Hawaii on their schedule.

Wow.

J

 

[J011yroger]

What happens if today is rained out?

J

 

[OnTheLine]

It (at least in Vegas) is not rained out ... Big t-storm at 4am dropped less than 1/8" of rain (that is big for us!!!) (*BTW at Darling Tennis center, they received 0.08" of rain) .. all burned off before 9am, there were some brief sprinkles in the early am ... the kind you don't even turn your wipers on while driving ... currently sunny with a few light clouds and no wind... it is humid as heck though

 

[mikeler]

It (at least in Vegas) is not rained out ... Big t-storm at 4am dropped less than 1/8" of rain (that is big for us!!!) (*BTW at Darling Tennis center, they received 0.08" of rain) .. all burned off before 9am, there were some brief sprinkles in the early am ... the kind you don't even turn your wipers on while driving ... currently sunny with a few light clouds and no wind... it is humid as heck though

You don’t know humidity!

 

[mikeler]

Out of curiousity, what was wrong with player party? I know one of the organizers and would be happy to pass feedback along.

All in all, a great event. These are minor complaints:

1. I was told I had to use tickets for bottled water. So I went in the pro shop instead to buy them and used my tickets for adult beverages. Throw in a free water next time.

2. If anyone wanted more than 2 drinks, there was no way to purchase anymore. I didn’t care because I was driving and didn’t want more than 2 but those who didn’t have to worry about driving should have had the option to pay cash.

 

[mikeler]

But with the traditional 4 teams 4 flights arrangement, each team would only get 3 matches, and getting everyone 4 was one of the goals (and perks) for the new format.

I’d rather have more matches.

 

[OnTheLine]

All in all, a great event. These are minor complaints:

1. I was told I had to use tickets for bottled water. So I went in the pro shop instead to buy them and used my tickets for adult beverages. Throw in a free water next time.

2. If anyone wanted more than 2 drinks, there was no way to purchase anymore. I didn’t care because I was driving and didn’t want more than 2 but those who didn’t have to worry about driving should have had the option to pay cash.

Made a quick phone call ..... I have been told that as it is a public park rather than a private club, they were limited as to how much they were allowed to offer/sell in terms of alcohol by the city permitting policies.

On the bottled water ... wow, that was pretty chintzy I agree.

On humidity ... I do have vague memories of living in Atlanta 25 years ago ... I prefer my desert weather for certain. But for us, today is incredibly humid.

 

[schmke]

It (at least in Vegas) is not rained out ... Big t-storm at 4am dropped less than 1/8" of rain (that is big for us!!!) (*BTW at Darling Tennis center, they received 0.08" of rain) .. all burned off before 9am, there were some brief sprinkles in the early am ... the kind you don't even turn your wipers on while driving ... currently sunny with a few light clouds and no wind... it is humid as heck though

@OnTheLine any idea why one women's semi score still not entered and both men's/women's finals scheduled for 6:30 pm? Doesn't sound like rain/weather should have been an issue.

 

[Topaz]

@mikeler Most of the teams in Dallas this weekend never even saw the player party. Everyone was still playing. By the time my team came off the court everything was packed up.