Predicting Next Year’s Elo Ratings - Article by Jeff Sackmann

Rovesciarete · Dec 17, 2023

If you can read the full article here, I will just post the general thrust and one graphic:

That said, Elo ratings are not explicitly predictive. They rely only on past results. They don’t recognize the fact that a player on a hot streak will probably cool off, or that a younger player is more likely to improve than an older one. If we want to look further ahead than tomorrow’s match, we need to take some of those additional factors into account.

Hence today’s project: Projecting Elo ratings one year in advance. Elo ratings tend to be a leading indicator of official rankings, so if we can get some idea of a player’s future in Elo terms, we can estimate–very approximately, I admit–his or her ATP or WTA ranking even further out.

The intervals demonstrate just how uncertain we are, with 12 months of tennis to play. If Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz hits the high end of his range, in the mid-2,300s, he’ll have established himself as a runaway number one. But if they surprise in the other direction, they’ll land below 2,000 and just barely stay in the top ten. Even these intervals don’t quite account for all the unknowns. There’s a nonzero chance that any of these guys will get hurt and miss most of the season, leaving them off the 2024 year-end list entirely.

The late Elo rise by Jannik pushes him a bit too high for my taste while Nole feels obviously too low. Alcaraz seems kinda right. We will see how things shake out, but it is a good reference to keep in mind.

Jonesy · Dec 17, 2023

Sinner and Alcaraz should manage their schedule right if they don't want to stay behind the guy that is allowed to skip tournaments.

Last year both Sinner and Alcaraz bodies let them down at crucial parts, Sinner had a fragile body and Alcaraz has a style that is a meat grinder. If both can fix those issues then their consistency will go up to challenge Djokovic.

SonnyT · Dec 17, 2023

I don't get it. Every man has a lower predictive '24 ELO than '23, except 1. Every woman has a lower '24 predictive ELO than current one.

Angrybirdstar · Dec 17, 2023

SonnyT said:
I don't get it. Every man has a lower predictive '24 ELO than '23, except 1. Every woman has a lower '24 predictive ELO than current one.

You might have noticed in both the ATP and WTA lists that most ratings–at least for top-tenners–are projected to go down. There’s a small regression component in the model, meaning that every player is expected to pull a bit back toward the middle of the pack. That doesn’t mean they will, of course, but on average, that’s what happens.

didn't really care for this article - doesn't really intuitively make sense in the way that many others have (e.g., quantifying best overhead smashes article, where Tsonga and Sampras were rightfully high). also think the error ranges are way too large to make any sense of the graphs. that said, Sackmann went on Alex Gruskin's The Mini-Break podcast to talk about confusing ATP players for next year, and it seemed like the Elo prediction project helped him come up with good players for conversation topics, so don't mind much

Sudacafan · Dec 17, 2023

I really didn't know that current top ATP players were so good at chess.

Aestheticsaboveallelse · Dec 17, 2023

Sudacafan said:
I really didn't know that current top ATP players were so good at chess.

Of course they are as Alcaraz said chess helps him quickly strategize and such, Tsitsipas has claimed similar things. Chess is a prerequisite to being an elite tennis player

Sudacafan · Dec 17, 2023

Aestheticsaboveallelse said:
Tsitsipas has claimed similar things

He's also a finance guru.
I plan to become filthy rich following his advice in not more than 5 years.

mika1979 · Dec 17, 2023

Jonesy said:
Sinner and Alcaraz should manage their schedule right if they don't want to stay behind the guy that is allowed to skip tournaments.

Last year both Sinner and Alcaraz bodies let them down at crucial parts, Sinner had a fragile body and Alcaraz has a style that is a meat grinder. If both can fix those issues then their consistency will go up to challenge Djokovic.

Cry me a river. You earn the right yo skip

TripleATeam · Dec 18, 2023

I don't like how almost every player has a confidence interval of the same size, give or take 5%. Shouldn't be the case. Also the intervals seem always equal on both sides.

Someone like Hurkacz who's at his career high at nearly 27 years old is likely to regress to the mean somewhat, whereas Tsitsipas who is having a down year at the moment is likely to bounce back somewhat. And Novak, who has been at a similar elo level for years now has an interval the same size as Tsitsipas, who can make slam finals at one slam and then go out R1 in the next? Seems fishy.

TearTheRoofOff · Dec 18, 2023

mika1979 said:
Cry me a river. You earn the right yo skip

What kind of response is that? lol.

socallefty · Dec 18, 2023

Djokovic plays a lower number of tournaments than the younger players and his ELO might be lower, but he is still the one to beat over 5 sets at Slams where he tends to peak.

TearTheRoofOff · Dec 18, 2023

TripleATeam said:
I don't like how almost every player has a confidence interval of the same size, give or take 5%. Shouldn't be the case. Also the intervals seem always equal on both sides.

Someone like Hurkacz who's at his career high at nearly 27 years old is likely to regress to the mean somewhat, whereas Tsitsipas who is having a down year at the moment is likely to bounce back somewhat. And Novak, who has been at a similar elo level for years now has an interval the same size as Tsitsipas, who can make slam finals at one slam and then go out R1 in the next? Seems fishy.

Yeah it just looks like a historically unhelpful concept has been given some massive contemporaneous uncertainty bandwidth to the tune if a big shrug of the shoulders. What it doesn't tell us.

Rovesciarete · Dec 18, 2023

TripleATeam said:
I don't like how almost every player has a confidence interval of the same size, give or take 5%. Shouldn't be the case. Also the intervals seem always equal on both sides.

Someone like Hurkacz who's at his career high at nearly 27 years old is likely to regress to the mean somewhat, whereas Tsitsipas who is having a down year at the moment is likely to bounce back somewhat. And Novak, who has been at a similar elo level for years now has an interval the same size as Tsitsipas, who can make slam finals at one slam and then go out R1 in the next?

To me a fairly simple stat-based his helpful to explore possibilities. It does not substitute knowledge or insight. Tsitispas is a good example with his nagging injuries and off court troubles. He could do very well indeed and I would put his future performance on the right of the band. The same goes for Zverev.

Sinner might suffer a shift to the left while Rune should do relatively better after cleaning up his game.

Rovesciarete · Dec 19, 2023

Nice podcast with Jeff about the 2023 confounding ATP All-stars, among them Sinner. As we have written before Jannik is one of those rare players where Elo was almost always above his ATP ranking.

Rovesciarete · Apr 1, 2024

Let us take a look how Elo compares to Jeff’s year end brackets after the first quarter of 2024. Jannik, Daniil and Gregor outperforming quite a bit.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-04-01

Rank	Player	Age	Elo	HardRaw	ClayRaw	GrassRaw	hElo	cElo	gElo	Peak Match	Peak Age	Peak Elo
1	Jannik Sinner	22.5	2263.2	2190.9	1913.5	1733.0	2227.1	2088.4	1998.1	2024 Miami F	22.5	2263.2
2	Novak Djokovic	36.7	2202.9	2103.3	1960.2	1898.1	2153.1	2081.5	2050.5	2016 Miami F	28.8	2470.3
3	Carlos Alcaraz	20.8	2162.7	2046.2	2018.9	1909.3	2104.4	2090.8	2036.0	2023 Canada R16	20.2	2239.7
4	Daniil Medvedev	28.0	2135.5	2053.5	1850.0	1751.2	2094.5	1992.7	1943.3	2022 Australian Open SF	25.9	2191.9
5	Grigor Dimitrov	32.8	2056.3	1949.7	1802.7	1611.6	2003.0	1929.5	1833.9	2014 Canada QF	23.2	2090.6
6	Alexander Zverev	26.9	2049.5	1938.2	1917.9	1619.4	1993.8	1983.7	1834.4	2022 Atp Cup RR	24.7	2161.7
7	Alex De Minaur	25.0	2009.1	1926.2	1622.5	1679.5	1967.6	1815.8	1844.3	2024 Indian Wells R32	25.0	2028.5
8	Andrey Rublev	26.4	2001.0	1892.5	1918.9	1757.6	1946.8	1959.9	1879.3	2021 Monte Carlo SF	23.4	2106.2
9	Ugo Humbert	25.7	1982.0	1899.3	1656.7	1582.4	1940.7	1819.4	1782.2	2024 Indian Wells R64	25.6	2009.8
10	Hubert Hurkacz	27.0	1968.1	1877.4	1717.5	1723.7	1922.7	1842.8	1845.9	2024 Marseille QF	26.9	1999.4
11	Taylor Fritz	26.3	1956.6	1889.9	1757.6	1598.7	1923.2	1857.1	1777.7	2023 Monte Carlo QF	25.4	2041.3
12	Casper Ruud	25.2	1956.6	1843.9	1940.6	1412.8	1900.3	1948.6	1684.7	2022 Roland Garros SF	23.4	2064.0
13	Stefanos Tsitsipas	25.5	1949.0	1850.5	2005.2	1650.8	1899.8	1977.1	1799.9	2021 Roland Garros SF	22.8	2133.4
14	Tommy Paul	26.7	1940.3	1877.1	1598.1	1618.1	1908.7	1769.2	1779.2	2023 Miami R32	25.8	1953.3
15	Holger Rune	20.8	1939.5	1817.3	1897.3	1631.9	1878.4	1918.4	1785.7	2023 Roland Garros R16	20.0	2070.1

ghostofMecir · Apr 1, 2024

Rovesciarete said:
If you can read the full article here, I will just post the general thrust and one graphic:

The late Elo rise by Jannik pushes him a bit too high for my taste while Nole feels obviously too low. Alcaraz seems kinda right. We will see how things shake out, but it is a good reference to keep in mind.

Sinner already at the 75% mark of highest predicted ELO. The highest predicted ELO would put Sinner (and Carlitos) right at Murray’s peak ELO.

Rovesciarete · Apr 1, 2024

ghostofMecir said:
Sinner already at the 75% mark of highest predicted ELO. The highest predicted ELO would put Sinner (and Carlitos) right at Murray’s peak ELO.

Yes, it is a quite conservative model to frame the possible year-end 2024 outcomes and is more suited to your regular ATP100 player.

Rovesciarete · Jun 12, 2024

We are now past the half-year mark plus the big clay swing so let us take a closer look how things are going:

Rank	Player	Age	Elo	HardRaw	ClayRaw	GrassRaw	hElo	cElo	gElo	Peak Match	Peak Age	Peak Elo
1	Jannik Sinner	22.7	2250.8	2190.9	1975.5	1733.0	2220.9	2113.2	1991.9	2024 Monte Carlo QF	22.6	2271.1
2	Carlos Alcaraz	21.0	2197.4	2046.2	2071.4	1909.3	2121.8	2134.4	2053.3	2023 Canada R16	20.2	2239.6
3	Novak Djokovic	37.0	2181.8	2103.3	1954.0	1898.1	2142.6	2067.9	2040.0	2016 Miami F	28.8	2470.3
4	Daniil Medvedev	28.2	2119.9	2053.5	1850.6	1751.2	2086.7	1985.2	1935.5	2022 Australian Open SF	25.9	2191.9
5	Alexander Zverev	27.1	2074.5	1938.2	1979.6	1619.4	2006.3	2027.0	1847.0	2022 Atp Cup RR	24.7	2161.7
6	Grigor Dimitrov	33.0	2042.5	1949.7	1808.0	1611.6	1996.1	1925.3	1827.0	2014 Canada QF	23.2	2090.6
7	Casper Ruud	25.4	2027.7	1843.8	1980.0	1412.8	1935.8	2003.9	1720.3	2022 Roland Garros SF	23.4	2064.0
8	Alex De Minaur	25.2	2012.6	1926.2	1795.3	1679.5	1969.4	1904.0	1846.0	2024 Indian Wells R32	25.0	2028.5
9	Stefanos Tsitsipas	25.7	2010.2	1850.5	2017.2	1650.8	1930.3	2013.7	1830.5	2021 Roland Garros SF	22.8	2133.4
10	Andrey Rublev	26.6	1995.9	1892.6	1902.0	1757.6	1944.3	1948.9	1876.8	2021 Monte Carlo SF	23.4	2106.2

The No. 1 in Elo has unsurprisingly also become the No. 1 in the ATP ranking. Despite a terrible call and a two-three weak stop before RG Sinner has big lead over the rest of the field. Grass, olympic clay hardcourt and later indoor await and without big injuries it is difficult to imagine him finishing at the level of last year.

Alcaraz has cemented his place as the best clay courter and will defend much glory on grass. Olympic single and double gold are likely his biggest targets.

Djokovic has lost some bad matches but his current play style works best on the faster surfaces, hopefully he can play. Sadly his stop will influence his form on olympic clay.

Rovesciarete · Jun 30, 2024

Pre-Wimbledon update:

Unsurprisingly Sinner has a big lead over the rest with another step-down from the duo Djokovic-Alcaraz. ClayRaw puts Alcaraz first with Tsitispas and Zverev ahead of Sinner and Djokovic. ClayGrass is clearly topped by Novak, Carlos and Jannik. HardRaw is dominated by the Sinner with even Nole down 87 points and Charlie almost 150.

Rank	Player	Age	Elo	HardRaw	ClayRaw	GrassRaw	hElo	cElo	gElo	Peak Match	Peak Age	Peak Elo
1	Jannik Sinner	22.8	2264.3	2190.9	1975.5	1835.6	2227.6	2119.9	2050.0	2024 Monte Carlo QF	22.6	2271.1
2	Novak Djokovic	37.0	2181.8	2103.3	1954.0	1898.1	2142.6	2067.9	2040.0	2016 Miami F	28.8	2470.3
3	Carlos Alcaraz	21.1	2178.1	2046.2	2071.4	1866.0	2112.1	2124.7	2022.0	2023 Canada R16	20.2	2239.6
4	Daniil Medvedev	28.3	2105.2	2053.5	1850.6	1719.2	2079.3	1977.9	1912.2	2022 Australian Open SF	25.9	2191.9
5	Alexander Zverev	27.1	2070.4	1938.2	1979.6	1665.4	2004.3	2025.0	1867.9	2022 Atp Cup RR	24.7	2161.7
6	Grigor Dimitrov	33.0	2034.0	1949.7	1808.0	1620.8	1991.8	1921.0	1827.4	2014 Canada QF	23.2	2090.6
7	Casper Ruud	25.4	2027.7	1843.8	1980.0	1412.8	1935.8	2003.9	1720.3	2022 Roland Garros SF	23.4	2064.0
8	Alex De Minaur	25.3	2021.7	1926.2	1795.3	1723.3	1973.9	1908.5	1872.5	2024 s Hertogenbosch F	25.3	2038.4
9	Hubert Hurkacz	27.3	2011.7	1877.4	1824.6	1758.4	1944.6	1918.2	1885.1	2024 Halle SF	27.3	2016.0
10	Stefanos Tsitsipas	25.8	1999.1	1850.5	2017.2	1626.5	1924.8	2008.1	1812.8	2021 Roland Garros SF	22.8	2133.4
11	Tommy Paul	27.0	1983.3	1877.1	1716.6	1732.1	1930.2	1850.0	1857.7	2024 Queen's Club F	27.0	1983.3
12	Andrey Rublev	26.6	1980.5	1892.6	1902.0	1713.7	1936.5	1941.2	1847.1	2021 Monte Carlo SF	23.4	2106.2
13	Taylor Fritz	26.6	1960.9	1889.8	1833.2	1617.9	1925.3	1897.1	1789.4	2023 Monte Carlo QF	25.4	2041.3
14	Sebastian Korda	23.9	1929.3	1781.7	1609.1	1714.0	1855.5	1769.2	1821.7	2023 Australian Open R16	22.5	2005.3
15	Jack Draper	22.4	1923.4	1794.5	1538.5	1716.7	1859.0	1731.0	1820.0	2024 Queen's Club R16	22.4	1938.4

Rovesciarete · Aug 30, 2024

Pre-US Open update:

Novak and Carlos have been closing the gap, but Jannik had still a sizeable lead, more so on hardcourt. He hit his peak basically shortly after the affair, we will see how it goes now from there. He is also now the third best grass player. Nole holding up well despite his tough year so far, apart from the great gold and the Wimby run.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-08-26

Rank	Player	Age	Elo	HardRaw	ClayRaw	GrassRaw	hElo	cElo	gElo	Peak Match	Peak Age	Peak Elo
1	Jannik Sinner	22.9	2251.6	2186.7	1975.5	1842.4	2219.1	2113.6	2047.0	2024 Monte Carlo QF	22.6	2271.1
2	Novak Djokovic	37.1	2200.3	2103.3	2002.3	1911.9	2151.8	2101.3	2056.1	2016 Miami F	28.8	2470.3
3	Carlos Alcaraz	21.2	2194.8	2017.4	2067.9	1980.2	2106.1	2131.3	2087.5	2023 Canada R16	20.2	2239.6
4	Daniil Medvedev	28.5	2074.2	2015.4	1835.7	1762.4	2044.8	1954.9	1918.3	2022 Australian Open SF	25.9	2191.9
5	Alexander Zverev	27.3	2065.7	1952.0	1967.9	1689.6	2008.9	2016.8	1877.7	2022 Atp Cup RR	24.7	2161.7
6	Grigor Dimitrov	33.2	2018.2	1920.7	1808.0	1659.4	1969.4	1913.1	1838.8	2014 Canada QF	23.2	2090.6
7	Hubert Hurkacz	27.4	2017.7	1890.2	1824.6	1769.5	1953.9	1921.2	1893.6	2024 Canada R16	27.4	2023.8
8	Casper Ruud	25.6	1982.0	1832.5	1952.2	1437.5	1907.2	1967.1	1709.7	2022 Roland Garros SF	23.4	2064.0
9	Tommy Paul	27.2	1977.5	1842.8	1766.7	1771.9	1910.1	1872.1	1874.7	2024 Paris Olympics R16	27.2	2010.3
10	Holger Rune	21.2	1973.3	1860.9	1875.7	1665.9	1917.1	1924.5	1819.6	2023 Roland Garros R16	20.0	2070.1
11	Taylor Fritz	26.7	1970.4	1860.5	1827.8	1729.0	1915.5	1899.1	1849.7	2023 Monte Carlo QF	25.4	2041.3
12	Stefanos Tsitsipas	26.0	1968.5	1823.6	2000.7	1602.5	1896.1	1984.6	1785.5	2021 Roland Garros SF	22.8	2133.4
13	Matteo Berrettini	28.3	1965.6	1680.2	1942.8	1759.6	1822.9	1954.2	1862.6	2022 Gstaad SF	26.2	2072.6
14	Andrey Rublev	26.8	1963.6	1910.0	1862.8	1665.7	1936.8	1913.2	1814.6	2021 Monte Carlo SF	23.4	2106.2
15	Lorenzo Musetti	22.4	1955.7	1653.0	1877.0	1756.4	1804.3	1916.4	1856.0	2024 Cincinnati R64	22.4	1972.9

nolefam_2024 · Aug 30, 2024

Rovesciarete said:
Pre-US Open update:

Novak and Carlos have been closing the gap, but Jannik had still a sizeable lead, more so on hardcourt. He hit his peak basically shortly after the affair, we will see how it goes now from there. He is also now the third best grass player. Nole holding up well despite his tough year so far, apart from the great gold and the Wimby run.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-08-26

Rank
Player
Age
Elo

HardRaw
ClayRaw
GrassRaw

hElo
cElo
gElo

Peak Match
Peak Age
Peak Elo
1
Jannik Sinner
22.9
2251.6

2186.7
1975.5
1842.4

2219.1
2113.6
2047.0

2024 Monte Carlo QF
22.6
2271.1
2
Novak Djokovic
37.1
2200.3

2103.3
2002.3
1911.9

2151.8
2101.3
2056.1

2016 Miami F
28.8
2470.3
3
Carlos Alcaraz
21.2
2194.8

2017.4
2067.9
1980.2

2106.1
2131.3
2087.5

2023 Canada R16
20.2
2239.6
4
Daniil Medvedev
28.5
2074.2

2015.4
1835.7
1762.4

2044.8
1954.9
1918.3

2022 Australian Open SF
25.9
2191.9
5
Alexander Zverev
27.3
2065.7

1952.0
1967.9
1689.6

2008.9
2016.8
1877.7

2022 Atp Cup RR
24.7
2161.7
6
Grigor Dimitrov
33.2
2018.2

1920.7
1808.0
1659.4

1969.4
1913.1
1838.8

2014 Canada QF
23.2
2090.6
7
Hubert Hurkacz
27.4
2017.7

1890.2
1824.6
1769.5

1953.9
1921.2
1893.6

2024 Canada R16
27.4
2023.8
8
Casper Ruud
25.6
1982.0

1832.5
1952.2
1437.5

1907.2
1967.1
1709.7

2022 Roland Garros SF
23.4
2064.0
9
Tommy Paul
27.2
1977.5

1842.8
1766.7
1771.9

1910.1
1872.1
1874.7

2024 Paris Olympics R16
27.2
2010.3
10
Holger Rune
21.2
1973.3

1860.9
1875.7
1665.9

1917.1
1924.5
1819.6

2023 Roland Garros R16
20.0
2070.1
11
Taylor Fritz
26.7
1970.4

1860.5
1827.8
1729.0

1915.5
1899.1
1849.7

2023 Monte Carlo QF
25.4
2041.3
12
Stefanos Tsitsipas
26.0
1968.5

1823.6
2000.7
1602.5

1896.1
1984.6
1785.5

2021 Roland Garros SF
22.8
2133.4
13
Matteo Berrettini
28.3
1965.6

1680.2
1942.8
1759.6

1822.9
1954.2
1862.6

2022 Gstaad SF
26.2
2072.6
14
Andrey Rublev
26.8
1963.6

1910.0
1862.8
1665.7

1936.8
1913.2
1814.6

2021 Monte Carlo SF
23.4
2106.2
15
Lorenzo Musetti
22.4
1955.7

1653.0
1877.0
1756.4

1804.3
1916.4
1856.0

2024 Cincinnati R64
22.4
1972.9

Would Novak lead if he beats zverev and sinner and sinner doesn't face Medvedev

Rovesciarete · Aug 30, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
Would Novak lead if he beats zverev and sinner and sinner doesn't face Medvedev

Don't know, guess it would be fairly close but I think Novak would need to win the title to be sure. A fifty point difference is big.

It is more important not to lose against low Elo than to win against close ones. Alcaraz will suffer quite the drop.*

*Nole got punished mostly by that this year.

nolefam_2024 · Aug 30, 2024

Rovesciarete said:
Don't know, guess it would be fairly close but I think Novak would need to win the title to be sure. A fifty point difference is big.

It is more important not to lose against low Elo than to win against close ones. Alcaraz will suffer quite the drop.

Alcaraz is having bad year he had 2 highlights and people forget that. His best surface is clay and he was robbed of 2 clay masters participation already. He should drop even more by end of the year.

Rovesciarete · Aug 30, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
Alcaraz is having bad year he had 2 highlights and people forget that. His best surface is clay and he was robbed of 2 clay masters participation already. He should drop even more by end of the year.

I don't know about dropping but his signature shot, the dropper, is least effective on hard court. Overall his great variability gets curtailed there, especially indoor. Against Djokovic and Sinner he can rely less on the heavy forehand, especially from inside-out and can't pull them out of position as often.

Backhand performance is possibly the best sign of an excellent hard court player. Djokovic, Sinner, Medvedev and Zverev have some of the very best in the business. Superb qualities elsewhere - hi Roger - can compensate of course, but I haven't found another one apart from - duh - serve.

nolefam_2024 · Aug 30, 2024

Rovesciarete said:
I don't know but his signature shot, the dropper, is least effective on hard court. Overall his great variability gets curtailed there, especially indoor. Against Djokovic and Sinner he can rely less on the heavy forehand, especially from inside-out and can't pull them out of position as often.

He looked so hopeless on forehand yesterday. Federer and even Novak would have hit many Inside in fhs and ended the points but raz kept hitting low intensity forehands

Rovesciarete · Aug 30, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
He looked so hopeless on forehand yesterday. Federer and even Novak would have hit many Inside in fhs and ended the points but raz kept hitting low intensity forehands

Clearly also a faulty game plan, he even stated that he expected many free points from Botic. Ferrero supposedly also made an inelegant 'will choke' gesture when Alcaraz got desperate with the level by BvZ...

nolefam_2024 · Aug 30, 2024

Rovesciarete said:
Clearly also a faulty game plan, he even stated that he expected many free points from Botic. Ferrero supposedly also made an inelegant 'will choke' gesture when Alcaraz got desperate with the level by BvZ...

I saw it. Raz wanted other guy to miss.

Rovesciarete · Aug 30, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
I saw it. Raz wanted other guy to miss.

Indeed. Just play it to his weak backhand and don't open up the angles or the court. Botic won't hurt you...

Sport · Aug 30, 2024

ELO is not part of tennis.

Neither the ATP nor the ITF, the two main tennis body organizations, endorse any type of official ELO rating.

All I see here are unofficial especulative "ELOs" from fan-made webpages, and each giving different results deoending on the webpage, proving the criteria selected to measure it to be subjective

Rovesciarete · Aug 30, 2024

Sport said:
ELO is not part of tennis.

Neither the ATP nor the ITF, the two main tennis body organizations, endorse any type of official ELO rating.

Of course it is, as witnessed by much work. Rough maybe but very insightful. Thank god we are mostly free guys and not beholden in our freedom of expression to some institution.

nolefam_2024 · Aug 30, 2024

Rovesciarete said:
Of course it is, as witnessed by much work. Rough maybe but very insightful. Thank god we are mostly free guys and not beholden in our freedom of expression to some institution.

Yes I agree with elo and all stats. Elo has some problems but it's far better than atp

Where winner gets 2000 and loser 1300. The gap can be a few points in the game.

Rovesciarete · Sep 9, 2024

Post-US Open update:

Jannik ahead by roughly 90-100 points of the other two top3 who distance by another 100 the lanky giants. Age-wise Grigor and especially Novak keep outperforming. Strong showing by Fritz and Paul, Draper is almost in the top15.

Last update: 2024-09-09

Rank	Player	Age	Elo	HardRaw	ClayRaw	GrassRaw	hElo	cElo	gElo	Peak Match	Peak Age	Peak Elo
1	Jannik Sinner	23.0	2273.6	2209.9	1975.5	1842.4	2241.8	2124.6	2058.0	2024 Us Open F	23.0	2273.6
2	Novak Djokovic	37.2	2188.6	2089.1	2002.3	1911.9	2138.9	2095.5	2050.3	2016 Miami F	28.8	2470.3
3	Carlos Alcaraz	21.3	2171.3	1986.8	2067.9	1980.2	2079.0	2119.6	2075.7	2023 Canada R16	20.2	2239.6
4	Daniil Medvedev	28.5	2081.6	2022.8	1835.7	1762.4	2052.2	1958.7	1922.0	2022 Australian Open SF	25.9	2191.9
5	Alexander Zverev	27.3	2065.4	1951.7	1967.9	1689.6	2008.6	2016.7	1877.5	2022 Atp Cup RR	24.7	2161.7
6	Grigor Dimitrov	33.2	2033.5	1941.2	1808.0	1659.4	1987.3	1920.8	1846.5	2014 Canada QF	23.2	2090.6
7	Taylor Fritz	26.8	2009.5	1899.4	1827.8	1729.0	1954.4	1918.6	1869.2	2023 Monte Carlo QF	25.4	2041.3
8	Hubert Hurkacz	27.5	2004.5	1875.8	1824.6	1769.5	1940.1	1914.6	1887.0	2024 Canada R16	27.4	2023.8
9	Casper Ruud	25.6	1988.1	1851.4	1952.2	1437.5	1919.8	1970.2	1712.8	2022 Roland Garros SF	23.4	2064.0
10	Tommy Paul	27.2	1983.1	1854.1	1766.7	1771.9	1918.6	1874.9	1877.5	2024 Paris Olympics R16	27.2	2010.3

Rovesciarete · Oct 14, 2024

The Asian swing is done and the Elo numbers are rolling in, Sinner moving closer to the 2300 mark. Tough to get there, though. Next-gen guys Medvedev and Zverev are a good 200 points behind. cElo, gElo are a toss-up between Jannik and Carlos.

Paul & Berrettini ranking surprisingly high.

All Elo leaderboards, updated weekly:
Men: Elo | yElo
Women: Elo | yElo
Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-14

Elo Rank	Player	Age	Elo	hElo	cElo	gElo	Peak Elo	Peak Month	ATP Rank	Log diff
1	Jannik Sinner	23.1	2287.3	2253.8	2131.3	2064.7	2287.3	2024-10	1	0
2	Carlos Alcaraz	21.4	2203.8	2134.6	2135.8	2091.4	2239.6	2023-08	2	0
3	Novak Djokovic	37.3	2193.9	2146.0	2098.1	2052.6	2470.3	2016-03	4	-0.29
4	Daniil Medvedev	28.6	2066.1	2033.3	1950.8	1914.1	2191.9	2022-01	5	-0.22
5	Alexander Zverev	27.4	2052.5	1995.1	2010.6	1870.8	2161.7	2022-01	3	0.51
6	Grigor Dimitrov	33.3	2031.3	1984.6	1919.5	1845.2	2090.6	2014-08	10	-0.51
7	Taylor Fritz	26.9	2013.0	1957.8	1920.4	1871.1	2041.3	2023-04	6	0.15
8	Hubert Hurkacz	27.6	1994.9	1930.3	1909.7	1881.8	2023.4	2024-08	12	-0.41
9	Tommy Paul	27.3	1971.6	1907.5	1868.9	1871.1	2010.1	2024-07	13	-0.37
10	Matteo Berrettini	28.4	1965.0	1845.6	1953.9	1862.2	2072.6	2022-07	42	-1.44

nolefam_2024 · Oct 14, 2024

Rovesciarete said:
The Asian swing is done and the Elo numbers are rolling in, Sinner moving closer to the 2300 mark. Tough to get there, though. Next-gen guys Medvedev and Zverev are a good 200 points behind. cElo, gElo are a toss-up between Jannik and Carlos.

Paul & Berrettini ranking surprisingly high.

All Elo leaderboards, updated weekly:
Men: Elo | yElo
Women: Elo | yElo
Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-10-14

Elo Rank
Player
Age
Elo

hElo
cElo
gElo

Peak Elo
Peak Month

ATP Rank
Log diff
1
Jannik Sinner
23.1
2287.3
2253.8
2131.3
2064.7
2287.3
2024-10
1
0
2
Carlos Alcaraz
21.4
2203.8
2134.6
2135.8
2091.4
2239.6
2023-08
2
0
3
Novak Djokovic
37.3
2193.9
2146.0
2098.1
2052.6
2470.3
2016-03
4
-0.29
4
Daniil Medvedev
28.6
2066.1
2033.3
1950.8
1914.1
2191.9
2022-01
5
-0.22
5
Alexander Zverev
27.4
2052.5
1995.1
2010.6
1870.8
2161.7
2022-01
3
0.51
6
Grigor Dimitrov
33.3
2031.3
1984.6
1919.5
1845.2
2090.6
2014-08
10
-0.51
7
Taylor Fritz
26.9
2013.0
1957.8
1920.4
1871.1
2041.3
2023-04
6
0.15
8
Hubert Hurkacz
27.6
1994.9
1930.3
1909.7
1881.8
2023.4
2024-08
12
-0.41
9
Tommy Paul
27.3
1971.6
1907.5
1868.9
1871.1
2010.1
2024-07
13
-0.37
10
Matteo Berrettini
28.4
1965.0
1845.6
1953.9
1862.2
2072.6
2022-07
42
-1.44

Is it really tough? I don't think so. Turin is coming.

Rovesciarete · Oct 14, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
Is it really tough? I don't think so. Turin is coming.

Paris is first, not faster Turin. In the latter case it would be more probable if he doesn't get Nole first in the first round.

nolefam_2024 · Nov 6, 2024

Sinner has done well and can shoot upto 2300 this year. But its not the end.

Top 10 peak elo by Tennis abstract. The big 3 are very low.

1. Steffi Graf - 2601

2. Navaratilova - 2575

3. Laver - 2571

4. Seles - 2563

5. Serena - 2507

6. Borg - 2473

7. Djokovic 2470

8. McEnroe - 2440

9. Roger - 2383

10. Nadal - 2370

Even Andy Murray has 2347 Peak Elo rating. Improving from here is very tough and we will see if he can.

Rovesciarete · Nov 6, 2024

Sinner is really pushing to that upper boundary, while Alcaraz has advanced only a little with Djokovic once again defiant, Rune steady! A lot can still change in Turin and the Davis Cup.

Single years don’t deserve too much credit but still interesting.

Pheasant · Nov 6, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
Sinner has done well and can shoot upto 2300 this year. But its not the end.

Top 10 peak elo by Tennis abstract. The big 3 are very low.

1. Steffi Graf - 2601

2. Navaratilova - 2575

3. Laver - 2571

4. Seles - 2563

5. Serena - 2507

6. Borg - 2473

7. Djokovic 2470

8. McEnroe - 2440

9. Roger - 2383

10. Nadal - 2370

Even Andy Murray has 2347 Peak Elo rating. Improving from here is very tough and we will see if he can.

These are some great numbers. Do you happen to know the dates of when the players achieved those numbers? I'm curious as to how old they were. Seles was probably 19 when she pulled this off. Big Mac was maybe 25.

nolefam_2024 · Nov 6, 2024

Pheasant said:
These are some great numbers. Do you happen to know the dates of when the players achieved those numbers? I'm curious as to how old they were. Seles was probably 19 when she pulled this off. Big Mac was maybe 25.

Yes

Graf 1990
Navaratilova 1974
Laver 1970
Seles 1973
Serena 2003
Borg 1980
Djokovic 2016
McEnroe 1985
Fed 2007
Rafa 2009

nolefam_2024 · Nov 6, 2024

@Pheasant funny thing about wta vs ATP

While there are 4 players less than 100 pts between Steffi and Serena

In ATP laver is 100+ pts away from Borg and Djokovic. His peak is above anyone from ATP we have ever seen which is logical as he has 2 calendar slams.

Pheasant · Nov 6, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
@Pheasant funny thing about wta vs ATP

While there are 4 players less than 100 pts between Steffi and Serena

In ATP laver is 100+ pts away from Borg and Djokovic. His peak is above anyone from ATP we have ever seen which is logical as he has 2 calendar slams.

Makes sense. I believe that he beat over 30 top-10 opponents the year he won the Open Era grand slam. And Laver beat a Hall of Fame player in all of those grand slams that year, IIRC.

nolefam_2024 · Nov 6, 2024

Pheasant said:
Makes sense. I believe that he beat over 30 top-10 opponents the year he won the Open Era grand slam. And Laver beat a Hall of Fame player in all of those grand slams that year, IIRC.

Djokovic also beat 31 top 10 in 2015. Only Laver and Djokovic achieved this in a single year.

Pheasant · Nov 6, 2024

nolefam_2024 said:
Djokovic also beat 31 top 10 in 2015. Only Laver and Djokovic achieved this in a single year.

That’s truly an insane # of wins like that.

Rovesciarete · Nov 19, 2024

Davis Cup is still looming but for some of the older chaps the season is at the end, so some words for them:

1) Djokovic won 'just' the dream of a lifetime, gold for Serbia but he also continues to be incredibly strong for his age. He finished at almost 2200 Elo points ( yearly 2140) which is frankly remarkable. A fit Novak should fight for slams.

2) Dimitrov is also performing very well against his age and finishing with 2018 far in the upper part of the projection. Like Nole he has become an excellent first strike player and very tough to break.

3) Medvedev is with his 2044 right in the ballpark but did so with his weakest serve performance in ages. If his shoulder gets well he will be more dangerous than in most of 2024.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2024-11-18

Elo Rank	Player	Age	Elo	Peak Elo	Peak Month	ATP Rank
1	Jannik Sinner	23.2	2304.5	2304.5	2024-11	1
2	Novak Djokovic	37.3	2193.7	2470.4	2016-03	7
3	Carlos Alcaraz	21.5	2151.9	2239.3	2023-08	3
4	Alexander Zverev	27.5	2083.8	2161.5	2022-01	2
5	Daniil Medvedev	28.7	2043.6	2191.6	2022-01	5
6	Taylor Fritz	27.0	2027.2	2040.8	2023-04	4
7	Grigor Dimitrov	33.4	2017.9	2091.0	2014-08	10
8	Jack Draper	22.8	2000.8	2018.5	2024-10	15
9	Hubert Hurkacz	27.7	1979.5	2023.2	2024-08	16
10	Holger Rune	21.5	1968.3	2069.4	2023-05	13
11	Tommy Paul	27.4	1964.9	2010.0	2024-07	12
12	Tomas Machac	24.0	1961.0	1974.6	2024-10	25
13	Stefanos Tsitsipas	26.2	1951.1	2133.3	2021-05	11
14	Matteo Berrettini	28.5	1935.4	2072.3	2022-07	35
15	Alex De Minaur	25.7	1932.2	2038.0	2024-06	9
16	Ugo Humbert	26.3	1921.3	2009.4	2024-03	14
17	Sebastian Korda	24.1	1920.6	2005.0	2023-01	23
18	Lorenzo Musetti	22.6	1919.7	1972.5	2024-08	17
19	Ben Shelton	22.0	1917.2	1960.4	2024-10	21
20	Andrey Rublev	27.0	1916.6	2106.1	2021-04	8

Predicting Next Year’s Elo Ratings - Article by Jeff Sackmann

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