Predicting the Nationals winners 18 & over 4.0 men

schmke

Legend
In less than a week we'll have a National champ for the 4.0 men. I used my simulation to write up a prediction, see more on my blog, but the short story is that Florida is the pick to come out on top of a very tight fight with Northern, Middle States, and Texas. Really, any one of those teams could win, and there are a few right behind that can slip in if any of those teams slip up.
 

Vox Rationis

Professional
That Florida team honestly looks like the sketchiest team in the competition. How are you going to have a bunch of 2017 3.5s get bumped to 4.0 and make it to nationals the next year? And on top of that have 3 self rates close to getting bumped (rated over 4.0 on TR) that barely played all year. I fully expect their guys to come in and play well over what the stats would suggest they would. Not to be naive, but at least some of the other super stacked teams look like they got super lucky with rating bumps last year. Notably, Northern went 0-3 at nationals last year and seemed to be treated leniently as a result. Florida, on the other hand, just stands out as fishy to me.
 

Vox Rationis

Professional
Here's a link to schmke's blog post http://computerratings.blogspot.com/

Interesting that Florida and Northern look like the top 2 teams since they play each other early on. That will be a fun match to follow and will be interesting to see if the loser of that dominates their other matches enough to still sneak into the semifinals.
 

BeyondTheTape

Semi-Pro
Here's a link to schmke's blog post http://computerratings.blogspot.com/

Interesting that Florida and Northern look like the top 2 teams since they play each other early on. That will be a fun match to follow and will be interesting to see if the loser of that dominates their other matches enough to still sneak into the semifinals.

And Mid Atlantic plays both. Opportunity to play spoiler...twice. o_O

might have other sections not named FL or Northern rooting for them.
 

schmke

Legend
And Mid Atlantic plays both. Opportunity to play spoiler...twice. o_O

might have other sections not named FL or Northern rooting for them.
I guess this is part of what makes the new format fun! Teams among the favorites playing in the round-robin and having to come back and dominate their other matches to still make the semis.
 

ShaunS

Semi-Pro
schmke said:
Should one of the above teams falter, Southern and ******* are most likely to take advantage of it and advance, New England and Southern Cal are also dark horses to find their way in if the stars align.
I haven't seen the schedules, but I did get to play one team and see the other. For what that's worth, I think Southern is the better team. No offense intended, but I found the ******* singles to be weaker at all spots. Their doubles was good but not outstanding for the level. So while they are probably similar in doubles, I'd give Southern the edge at two of the three though. In the end, close enough that the right opponents could turn the tide, but still far enough that I'd bet Southern without reservation.
 

schmke

Legend
I haven't seen the schedules, but I did get to play one team and see the other. For what that's worth, I think Southern is the better team. No offense intended, but I found the ******* singles to be weaker at all spots. Their doubles was good but not outstanding for the level. So while they are probably similar in doubles, I'd give Southern the edge at two of the three though. In the end, close enough that the right opponents could turn the tide, but still far enough that I'd bet Southern without reservation.
I agree Southern is the stronger team, and they are more likely to make the semis than Middle West is, but Southern has a slightly tougher schedule too.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Middle States does not have a single player under 40 on their 18+ roster (they had one earlier who was DQ'd).
 

iNeverSlice

Rookie
In less than a week we'll have a National champ for the 4.0 men. I used my simulation to write up a prediction, see more on my blog, but the short story is that Florida is the pick to come out on top of a very tight fight with Northern, Middle States, and Texas. Really, any one of those teams could win, and there are a few right behind that can slip in if any of those teams slip up.
Any chance you do a simulation for the men's 40 and over 4.5+?
 

schmke

Legend
Early results:

New England over Intermountain 3-2 - expected (0.04 top-10 average gap)
Northern over Eastern 4-1 - expected (0.10)
Florida over Mid-Atlantic 4-1 - expected (0.05)
Texas over Middle West 3-2 - expected (0.05)

So all as expected so far. I can't imagine that continuing through the whole event, but the simulation is off to a nice start.
 

schmke

Legend
Two more in:

Southern over PNW 4-1 - expected (0.13)
Caribbean upsets Middle States 4-1 - but based on the line-ups, Caribbean was actually favored on 3 of the 5 courts. This is why top-10 averages are great, but who plays and where is often more important.
 
In less than a week we'll have a National champ for the 4.0 men. I used my simulation to write up a prediction, see more on my blog, but the short story is that Florida is the pick to come out on top of a very tight fight with Northern, Middle States, and Texas. Really, any one of those teams could win, and there are a few right behind that can slip in if any of those teams slip up.

Pretty good predictions Kevin. Texas and Florida are in, but Caribbean and Southern round it out.
 

schmke

Legend
Pretty good predictions Kevin. Texas and Florida are in, but Caribbean and Southern round it out.
Yeah, Caribbean is almost always underrated coming in, still working on the best way to remedy that.

Middle States appears didn't have their best guys there, and Northern was one court away in their last match from joining the huge tie at 3-1 and may have found their way in.
 

Vox Rationis

Professional
I wonder how much schedule of strength came into play. Here's the combined record of each semifinalist's opponents...

Florida: 4-12 overall (1-3, 1-3, 2-2, 0-4)
Southern: 7-9 overall (3-1, 1-3, 1-3, 2-2)
Caribbean: 3-13 overall (1-3, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3)
Texas: 4-12 overall (0-4, 3-1, 0-4, 1-3)

Only Southern and Texas played a team that finished above .500. In this case they both played Pacific NW, which happens to be Texas's sole loss so far.

And looking at the 3 teams that lost out on a semifinal spot via the tiebreaker...

New England: 4-12 overall (1-3, 1-3, 0-4, 2-2)
Pacific NW: 8-8 overall (4-0, 3-1, 1-3, 0-4)
Mo Valley: 6-10 overall (1-3, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2)

PNW looks like they have a right to be mad at the draw they were handed.
 
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schmke

Legend
PNW did have a tougher draw going in, average opponent top-10 average of 3.97 to Texas' 3.93, and after the matches were played it was similar, 3.96 for PNW to 3.92 for Texas. Florida's was pretty tough at 3.97, and Caribbean 3.93.

But yes, schedules make a big difference, and in this format with no effort made to have similar schedule strengths, some vary wildly and some benefited from that.

Note of course when Florida and Texas go 4-0, their opponents are likely to have losing records, but even taking those out, their opponents still had losing records.
 

schmke

Legend
PNW did have a tougher draw going in, average opponent top-10 average of 3.97 to Texas' 3.93, and after the matches were played it was similar, 3.96 for PNW to 3.92 for Texas. Florida's was pretty tough at 3.97, and Caribbean 3.93.

But yes, schedules make a big difference, and in this format with no effort made to have similar schedule strengths, some vary wildly and some benefited from that.

Note of course when Florida and Texas go 4-0, their opponents are likely to have losing records, but even taking those out, their opponents still had losing records.
Just wrote a bit of a recap on the semi-finalists and tie-breakers on my blog.
 

Vox Rationis

Professional
PNW did have a tougher draw going in, average opponent top-10 average of 3.97 to Texas' 3.93, and after the matches were played it was similar, 3.96 for PNW to 3.92 for Texas. Florida's was pretty tough at 3.97, and Caribbean 3.93.
It also matters if their opponents actually brought their best players or if their ratings are "accurate" in comparison to the other sections. I noticed both Florida and Northern didn't bring one of their key singles players. Northern definitely could have used their missing guy to try and flip their losses. If you were to redo the simulations with only the players that showed up to nationals, I'm sure the predictions would look different. Wouldn't have helped Middle States, though. That was a surprise.

Note of course when Florida and Texas go 4-0, their opponents are likely to have losing records, but even taking those out, their opponents still had losing records.
Yep, I thought about noting that. It might have helped to list the opponent's record minus the match against the semifinal team in question. It would have looked like this

Florida: 4-8 overall
Southern: 7-5 overall
Caribbean: 2-10 overall
Texas: 3-9 overall

New England: 3-9 overall
Pacific NW: 7-5 overall
Mo Valley: 5-7 overall

Huge difference between Caribbean/Texas and Southern/PNW. Just the way she goes sometimes.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Yeah, Caribbean is almost always underrated coming in, still working on the best way to remedy that.

Middle States appears didn't have their best guys there, and Northern was one court away in their last match from joining the huge tie at 3-1 and may have found their way in.
I agree. It looks like Middle States left their best player at home. LOL.
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru
@schmke I told you that every 4.0 in Eastern who could tie their own shoes got bumped up to 4.5.

Lo and behold Eastern 4.0 finished DFL in the pool.

J
 
@schmke I told you that every 4.0 in Eastern who could tie their own shoes got bumped up to 4.5.

Lo and behold Eastern 4.0 finished DFL in the pool.

J

Eastern was last, but had two factors working against them. First, their top player couldn't make it, for whatever reason. Second, their strength of opponents was among the hardest, including 2nd place Florida, 4th place Texas, and Southwest and Northern were also strong.

They were still a very tough team to beat.
 

schmke

Legend
Eastern was last, but had two factors working against them. First, their top player couldn't make it, for whatever reason. Second, their strength of opponents was among the hardest, including 2nd place Florida, 4th place Texas, and Southwest and Northern were also strong.

They were still a very tough team to beat.
Schedule strengths are a huge factor in this format. And I've heard from some players how close some matches were, for example a 4-1 loss where the losing team had multiple match points in two of the losses so that could have been a 3-2 win. There are razor thin margins and a 4-0 or 0-4 record isn't necessarily as dominant as it sounds.
 

tdhawks

Professional
I was following it closely this weekend as well. Very tight matches. OK singles player I lost to at Sectionals went on to record a 4-0 record in singles at Nationals.
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru

Yoda Jr.

New User
I agree. It looks like Middle States left their best player at home. LOL.
Really? I was on the Middle States team and was there this past weekend. We had our top players so I'm not sure who we left at home. We had match points to win # 2 doubles and ended up losing 16-14 in the coman. #3 doubles also came down to a coman so it could've been 3-2 middle states over weekend. Credit to Puerto Rico for pulling out the win. They're a good group of guys and deserve winning the whole tournament.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Really? I was on the Middle States team and was there this past weekend. We had our top players so I'm not sure who we left at home. We had match points to win # 2 doubles and ended up losing 16-14 in the coman. #3 doubles also came down to a coman so it could've been 3-2 middle states over weekend. Credit to Puerto Rico for pulling out the win. They're a good group of guys and deserve winning the whole tournament.
It was me I was referring to. That was a joke, not serious.
 

BeyondTheTape

Semi-Pro
well its been a week since i returned from 4.0 nationals and...i am not one to complain. We had a hell of a run finishing 3rd and losing to the eventual champs. I am completely content!

But its been on my mind. That our team in the semi finals was a victim of coaching by the Caribbean. While we did lose the team match 5-0, (you think, what did it matter) well we lost three 3rd sets 10-8 and i was one of those courts. Again, not complaining...individually and team wise....best year ever!

it bothers me that USTA had no response when we told them. And i would like a change.
 
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