Predicting the Nationals winners 18 & over 4.5 men and women - Men's All TT Team has a shot!

schmke

Hall of Fame
#1
Just posted the predictions for the 4.5 men and women.

Southern, NorCal, and PNW appear to be the class of the field for the women.

The men are more competitive, but SoCal looks to be the favorite.

What about the 4.5 men All TT team? They averaged 4.48 and in this group would be tied for the #4 team. Given anything other than one of the tougher schedules, they'd do some damage and be in the running for the semis!
 
#3
Just posted the predictions for the 4.5 men and women.

Southern, NorCal, and PNW appear to be the class of the field for the women.

The men are more competitive, but SoCal looks to be the favorite.

What about the 4.5 men All TT team? They averaged 4.48 and in this group would be tied for the #4 team. Given anything other than one of the tougher schedules, they'd do some damage and be in the running for the semis!
I am hoping your simulations are not that accurate so my team has a shot. Since we are the defending champs we will try to defend our title ( I am speaking for the middle west, my team won nothing last year)
 
#4
I am hoping your simulations are not that accurate so my team has a shot. Since we are the defending champs we will try to defend our title ( I am speaking for the middle west, my team won nothing last year)
There are always surprises. While I list the teams most likely to make the semis, other teams still have a good shot and it is actually not likely that the exact 4 teams I identify will all make it. And your team was one of the next I would have mentioned with a 26% chance of the semis. Things are close enough, that one upset court can turn a 3-2 loss into a 3-2 win and make one of those 26% scenarios occur.
 
#5
There are always surprises. While I list the teams most likely to make the semis, other teams still have a good shot and it is actually not likely that the exact 4 teams I identify will all make it. And your team was one of the next I would have mentioned with a 26% chance of the semis. Things are close enough, that one upset court can turn a 3-2 loss into a 3-2 win and make one of those 26% scenarios occur.
Or if their best players don't make the trip which is often the case in my experience.

J
 
#6
Or if their best players don't make the trip which is often the case in my experience.

J
Yep, my simulations assume the top-10 rated players make the trip and this often isn't the case. Sometimes more go, and sometimes some top players are missing.

Perhaps I should use top-12 averages to try to better reflect the "real" rosters?
 
#13
Here is an update from nationals. Due to weather concerns we are playing short sets to four, win by one no set tiebreaks. They are doing a seven point tiebreak instead of the normal ten point. They seem to be entering it as full scores on line though. My team won the first match 4-1.
 
#14
Here is an update from nationals. Due to weather concerns we are playing short sets to four, win by one no set tiebreaks. They are doing a seven point tiebreak instead of the normal ten point. They seem to be entering it as full scores on line though. My team won the first match 4-1.
Sorry to hear. This is not how the National Champion should be determined.
 
#15
Sorry to hear. This is not how the National Champion should be determined.
Heard the same thing from others and wrote an update. This format has matches taking on average a little less than half the time as a normal scored match so in theory they could get all the round-robin in today. Not sure if that is the plan or not.

Agree that this is not how to determine a National Champ, but when you pick sites other than the desert Southwest, the chances of rain are there and this is bound to happen. Last year between Mobile and Florida, 59% of the events held there were affected by rain, either shortening of format or even not completing events and declaring co-champs. I'm sure they thought Arlington would have better weather and perhaps they do on average, but it is still not as reliable as Palm Springs or Arizona, although to be fair Phoenix looks to have thunderstorms forecast much of tomorow. But the Indian Wells forecast? Mid/upper 80s and party cloudy to sunny all weekend.
 
#16
Some early upsets, not sure if the format had a role or not.

PNW beats SoCal 3-2, two of the wins in (7 point) match tie-breaks. And Eastern beats Southern 4-1, the upset a minor upset, but that score a little surprising.
 
#33
Watching matches—this fast 4 format is going to cause some less predictable results. If you get broken, you’re under a lot more pressure to get a quick break back.
Yep, what I just wrote on a reply to a comment on Facebook.

Fast 4 is arguably better than a pro set as you can regroup, win the second set and TB, but it is awfully difficult to come back in an individual set.

And it is interesting that as I understand it there is no TB in the sets, it is just first to 4? I guess that is ok in that if every holds it will be 4-3,3-4 and the TB will decide it, but is still an interesting twist.
 
#34
You'd expect/want 6-4? I suppose an argument could be made that 4-2 is a single break and if the rest were holds it would end up 6-4. But a 6-3 set may be a single break too, and 4 is twice the number of games 2 is (6 vs 3), and if someone was broken once in getting to 4-2, there is a 50% chance they'd be broken again and so not get to 6-4.
 
#35
Yep, what I just wrote on a reply to a comment on Facebook.

Fast 4 is arguably better than a pro set as you can regroup, win the second set and TB, but it is awfully difficult to come back in an individual set.

And it is interesting that as I understand it there is no TB in the sets, it is just first to 4? I guess that is ok in that if every holds it will be 4-3,3-4 and the TB will decide it, but is still an interesting twist.
Right, first to 4. It initially seems like a glorified pro set, but you could have a collective 4-7 score and still win. It’s too sketchy in my opinion.
 
#37
You'd expect/want 6-4? I suppose an argument could be made that 4-2 is a single break and if the rest were holds it would end up 6-4. But a 6-3 set may be a single break too, and 4 is twice the number of games 2 is (6 vs 3), and if someone was broken once in getting to 4-2, there is a 50% chance they'd be broken again and so not get to 6-4.
I expect 2 full sets and a super tiebreaker.

If that is not within your capability, you don't get to host nationals.

J
 
#39
I expect 2 full sets and a super tiebreaker.

If that is not within your capability, you don't get to host nationals.

J
And on why they are where they are, I've obviously written and been critical about the selected sites, and I can't speak for the USTA but what I've heard is that A) locations have to bid to host Nationals and some that we think should perhaps don't, and B) desert Southwest locations are sometimes more expensive than alternatives and a lot farther trip for many and feedback from players is to go to cheaper/closer places.

Now, I wonder if players still like the cheaper/closer places when formats are shortened or events are not completed? The surveys/polls I've done have had a mix of responses on what is preferred.
 
#42
And on why they are where they are, I've obviously written and been critical about the selected sites, and I can't speak for the USTA but what I've heard is that A) locations have to bid to host Nationals and some that we think should perhaps don't, and B) desert Southwest locations are sometimes more expensive than alternatives and a lot farther trip for many and feedback from players is to go to cheaper/closer places.

Now, I wonder if players still like the cheaper/closer places when formats are shortened or events are not completed? The surveys/polls I've done have had a mix of responses on what is preferred.
I figure they had a drunk chicken throw darts at a map of the US.

J
 
#45
Watching matches—this fast 4 format is going to cause some less predictable results. If you get broken, you’re under a lot more pressure to get a quick break back.
with the fast 4 format...with less emphasis on a complete match id look down my bench for the biggest servers. "Billy you weren't gonna play at nationals because quite frankly youre #13 on the team.. but since you hit flamethrower serves once every 6 serves, suit up."
 
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