Predicting the Nationals winners - 18 & Over 5.0+ men and women

[schmke]

Just wrote about the 5.0+ levels to be played this weekend in Orlando.

5.0+ played just 3 courts so I use just 7 rather than 10 for the top-N averages, and by this measure both the men and women have pretty big ranges meaning we will likely have some lopsided results and fewer teams are really in the running to make the semis and win it. But this also means there are some really weak schedules to teams well down the top-7 average list may make the semis.

All that said, for the men, Intermountain and Pacific Northwest appear to be the big favorites, a number of teams vying to make the semis, Intermountain the narrow favorite to win. But smaller rosters and who shows up and getting to play just one 5.5 really makes it a toss up.

For the women, three teams are near guarantees to make the semis, Texas and the Californias, and Florida is nearly so too. It would be a surprise to see another team advance. But the teams with the best chance to make the semis are doing so based on weak schedules, and the "lower chance" teams in the semis are actually stronger on paper and Florida would be the favorite to win.

 

[J_R_B]

The Middle States team has a 5.5 who is late 20s and played D1 and played some futures tournaments early this decade. They also have a 5.0 rated college kid who played #2 for a top 20 D3 school as a freshman and was the #1 player on the team that won PA states in high school at least twice while he was there. Most of the rest of their roster are teaching pros/open tournament players who are solid long-time 5.0s, but in 5.0, you don't need many ringers to make some noise.

 

[CHtennis]

I was just reading the 5.0 women preview and the numbers for the Semis seem insanely high. http://computerratings.blogspot.com/2018/10/predicting-2018-usta-league-nationals_2.html

Four teams have 89% chance or above to make the final four, this gives very little chance to this not being the top 4. I dont know anything about any of the teams here, but wow those are high numbers. I will be interested to see how it shakes out, especially since if one teams best player doesnt go than that can drastically change things in 5.0+. Not that you could take that into account for the simulations, I just wonder how it will work out.

 

[schmke]

I was just reading the 5.0 women preview and the numbers for the Semis seem insanely high. http://computerratings.blogspot.com/2018/10/predicting-2018-usta-league-nationals_2.html

Four teams have 89% chance or above to make the final four, this gives very little chance to this not being the top 4. I dont know anything about any of the teams here, but wow those are high numbers. I will be interested to see how it shakes out, especially since if one teams best player doesnt go than that can drastically change things in 5.0+. Not that you could take that into account for the simulations, I just wonder how it will work out.

Yep, 5.0+ can be hard to predict due to the fewer courts (3) making it so one player not going or not in the line-up can drastically change things.

But yes, the rosters for the Nationals teams are wildly different. It appears some sections scraped together line-ups and don't have strong 5.0s or 5.5s but still get to go to Nationals as they were the best team put together in their section, while a few teams are loaded with strong players. This could make for some lopsided results like you say.

 

[schmke]

Early results from the 5.0 men, we have minor upsets.

Texas over Southwest 3-0 - expected (0.16)
Florida over SoCal 2-1 - expected (0.04)
Mid-Atlantic over Middle States 2-1 - expected (0.15)
Eastern upsets Caribbean 2-1 - gap was 0.07, but based on who played got the upset when a 5.01 beat a 5.05 on 1S
New England over Norther 2-1 - expected (0.03)
NorCal upsets Intermountain 2-1 - 1S had an upset in a match TB

 

[J_R_B]

Middle States had their 5.5 ex-ITF player playing, but he lost to a dude who played Davis Cup for Hong Kong. LOL.

 

[dannywilliams10s]

So who over-performed and under-performed at 5.0 according to the numbers?

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[JLyon]

Former S.Carolina #1 Kyle Koch was big time in singles for Southern to win the title

 

[JLyon]

wow Poor Texas beat ******* and was 2 MTB's away from being undefeated losing 2-1 to Southern and Nor Cal

 

[schmke]

So who over-performed and under-performed at 5.0 according to the numbers?

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Southern over performed to win it all, simply because they had a tough schedule so had one of the tougher roads to the semis.

PNW underperformed badly, but also didn't take 3 of their top-5 so perhaps not a surprise.

Intermountain also underperformed going 2-2, but they were 8-4 on courts despite having to play NorCal and Southern in round-robin, and with just one flipped match tie-break against NorCal or flipping a 7-5,7-6 loss into a win would have been in the semis.