Prediction: if Djokovic wins RG this year, if Djokovic doesnt win RG this year

[mattosgrant]

I think if Djokovic wins RG this year he will end up with 2 total RGs minimum, and might even win 3. I cant see him not winning atleast 1 more after this year if he wins this year.

However if he doesn't win RG this year, I can practically guarantee he will win 1 max, and might not even win that.

Winning RG this year would alleviate a lot of pressure in future years, and free him up to play bolder and more relaxed there. Should he not win this year the burden and pressure of the event will only be heightened more as he gets increasingly older.

I will copy this thread, as I am sure either way it will be right (2 RGs minimum if Djokovic wins this year, 1 RG maximum in his career if he doesn't) and we will see I have been right in 5 years or so when Djokovic retires or is almost done.

 

[AustinTx24]

So Djokovic will win 1, 2 or 3 RG's...Bold prediction! You should also add 0 just to cover yourself.

 

[mattosgrant]

So Djokovic will win 1, 2 or 3 RG's...Bold prediction! You should also add 0 just to cover yourself.

Well guaranteeing he will win atleast 1 more (could be more than 1) if he does win this year, and no more than 1 (could be 0) if he doesn't win this year, is making a somewhat definitive statement don't you think?

 

[Deleted member 716271]

I think if he wins this year, he'll definitely win another. Because there's no reason he shouldn't be the favorite there and even an odds one every year besides the mental jinx of it

 

[Deleted member 743561]

Still think he wins this year (although not as sure of that as I was before this season began). I'd give Djok the best odds, then maybe Stan, Tsonga, Nishikori, Fed, Thiem, et al. Realize I'm throwing a lot of names in there, but the point is Djok's at the top of the list. Don't see multiple RG titles though.

EDIT: Overlooked Murray. He's got a shot, too. And La Monf.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

Still think he wins this year (although not as sure of that as I was before this season began). I'd give Djok the best odds, then maybe Stan, Tsonga, Nishikori, Fed, Thiem, et al. Realize I'm throwing a lot of names in there, but the point is Djok's at the top of the list. Don't see multiple RG titles though.

No Rafa?

 

[mattosgrant]

Still think he wins this year (although not as sure of that as I was before this season began). I'd give Djok the best odds, then maybe Stan, Tsonga, Nishikori, Fed, Thiem, et al. Realize I'm throwing a lot of names in there, but the point is Djok's at the top of the list. Don't see multiple RG titles though.

Rafa clearly has the 2nd best chance to win RG this year. It isn't even a question. Stan 3rd. Not sure after that, but no way anyone else is winning so doesn't matter. Theim or a French player I guess would be next. Then Murray, Nishikori, another French player, and Fed after all those (Fed isn't winning another RG at this stage).

 

[Deleted member 743561]

.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

Rafa clearly has the 2nd best chance to win RG this year. It isn't even a question. Stan 3rd. Not sure after that, but no way anyone else is winning so doesn't matter. Theim or a French player I guess would be next. Then Murray, Nishikori, another French player, and Fed after all those (Fed isn't winning another RG at this stage).

Clearly the 2nd best chance? Is the MC trophy in his hands all you needed to see? RG '16 is gonna be a battle royale. He's not the dominant force he used to be. Game on.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

One and done. Still not convinced this year will be the one. If he wins it this year and is flying high next year then it could be time to change my mind.

So Djokovic will win 1, 2 or 3 RG's...Bold prediction! You should also add 0 just to cover yourself.

lol

 

[mattosgrant]

Clearly the 2nd best chance? Is the MC trophy in his hands all you needed to see? RG '16 is gonna be a battle royale. He's not the dominant force he used to be. Game on.

Of course he isn't dominant, but there are a lack of genuine contenders, so yes he is the 2nd best chance. The clay field is weak, that slowed and way past his prime Rafa is 2nd favorite is evidence of that, and it will be a huge wasted opportunity if Djokovic does not win RG this year. Yes winning Monte Carlo, and smacking the crap out of Wawrinka is all I need to see to make the 9 time Champ 2nd favorite given the non existing group of real contenders on the surface.

You need to wake up if you honestly think Theim, Tsonga, or for a real laugh Fed or Nishikori, are stronger contenders for the RG title this year than Rafa (all guys you listed without listing Rafa).

 

[Deleted member 743561]

Of course he isn't dominant, but there are a lack of genuine contenders, so yes he is the 2nd best chance. The clay field is weak, that slowed and way past his prime Rafa is 2nd favorite is evidence of that, and it will be a huge weak if Djokovic does not win RG this year. Yes winning Monte Carlo, and smacking the crap out of Wawrinka is all I need to see to make the 9 time Champ 2nd favorite given the non existing group of real contenders on the surface.

You are the one who needs to come on if you honestly think Theim, Tsonga, or for a real laugh Fed or Nishikori, are stronger contenders for the RG title this year than Rafa (all guys you listed without listing Rafa).

Think he's playing in two more clay tournies before RG. If he fails to win either (or possibly both), does your opinion change?

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Can't think of a recent tournament with more build up and attention than 2016 FO. I hope the wait and the event end quickly.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

Can't think of a recent tournament with more build up and attention than 2016 FO. I hope the wait and the event end quickly.

haha... what does that part of it mean? I get hoping that the wait will end, but you won't enjoy the event, itself?

 

[Tardigrade]

Either way it's a win/win situation for him; If he wins the pressure is off, if he loses he could very go on another hot streak and will be even more motivated to dominate tennis.

 

[Krish872007]

Think he's playing in two more clay tournies before RG. If he fails to win either (or possibly both), does your opinion change?

It shouldn't really change. MC has no real relevance to RG as we've seen in the past - same goes for Madrid and Rome. The 9-time champion has played his way into some sort of form and over 5 sets I can only see Djokovic taking him out at this point. RG is just so different from these tune-ups - and Nadal is rightly the bookies' 2nd favourite at 3/1 for the title.

 

[mattosgrant]

Think he's playing in two more clay tournies before RG. If he fails to win either (or possibly both), does your opinion change?

No. I expect Djokovic will win both anyway, so I am not even expecting Nadal to win either. The only thing that could possibly change is if Nadal beats Djokovic to win 1 of those I might elevate him to RG favorite over Djokovic.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

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[Deleted member 716271]

No. I expect Djokovic will win both anyway, so I am not even expecting Nadal to win either. The only thing that could possibly change is if Nadal beats Djokovic to win 1 of those I might elevate him to RG favorite over Djokovic.

I agree, and Madrid is totally different from RG anyway.

I need to take a nap, barely slept at all last night. After that, I'll respond to your PM

 

[Deleted member 743561]

No. I expect Djokovic will win both anyway, so I am not even expecting Nadal to win either. The only thing that could possibly change is if Nadal beats Djokovic to win 1 of those I might elevate him to RG favorite over Djokovic.

Well, depending on how the seeding works out... even though Nadal beat Stan at MC... Stan proved he could beat Djok on clay's biggest stage. Doesn't he get some benefit of the doubt as the title holder?

 

[Meles]

Of course he isn't dominant, but there are a lack of genuine contenders, so yes he is the 2nd best chance. The clay field is weak, that slowed and way past his prime Rafa is 2nd favorite is evidence of that, and it will be a huge wasted opportunity if Djokovic does not win RG this year. Yes winning Monte Carlo, and smacking the crap out of Wawrinka is all I need to see to make the 9 time Champ 2nd favorite given the non existing group of real contenders on the surface.

You need to wake up if you honestly think Theim, Tsonga, or for a real laugh Fed or Nishikori, are stronger contenders for the RG title this year than Rafa (all guys you listed without listing Rafa).

Can't think of a recent tournament with more build up and attention than 2016 FO. I hope the wait and the event end quickly.

Very strong field on clay this year. Nadal is clearly back in the mix. Wawa, Murray, and perhaps Thiem could really take some energy out of their opponents. Three former champs and dominate number 1 plus some nice bit part players taking shape in Monfils and Thiem. Best year ever on clay in the works. Even Nishikori seems to be rounding into form. Federer's return game isn't going anywhere, but his improved offense gives him as much hope as he's had the last five years. Fed is still a great clay court player despite no longer being in his prime on the surface.Ferrer likely MIA for top form, but that's good; all the more excitement guaranteed without Ferrer guaranteed to lose at the end.

When have their been genuine contenders since Nadal arrived? Soderling?

 

[Krish872007]

But maybe winning a 1000 on clay was all some people needed to see (regardless of any carry-over value). RG seems to think there's some correlation. Maybe a jinx attempt, though.

Ah, they never fail to deliver, do they? About as relevant as Doha is to the AO in my book

My order: Djoko, Nadal, Murray, Wawrinka, Federer, Thiem, etc.

 

[mattosgrant]

Well, depending on how the seeding works out... even though Nadal beat Stan at MC... Stan proved he could beat Djok on clay's biggest stage. Doesn't he get some benefit of the doubt as the title holder?

Sure I did say Stan was my 3rd favorite. It is hard to put him over Rafa seeing Rafa beat him so badly. Stan is much tougher in slams, but Rafa is also tougher at RG than any other clay event. Those 3 are clearly my top 3, way over anyone else. I honestly cant see anyone but Djokovic, Nadal, or Stan winning RG, no way.

 

[Meles]

No. I expect Djokovic will win both anyway, so I am not even expecting Nadal to win either. The only thing that could possibly change is if Nadal beats Djokovic to win 1 of those I might elevate him to RG favorite over Djokovic.

Djocko may not win anything on clay this year. With the Vesely loss, blood is in the water.

 

[Krish872007]

Sure I did say Stan was my 3rd favorite. It is hard to put him over Rafa seeing Rafa beat him so badly. Stan is much tougher in slams, but Rafa is also tougher at RG than any other clay event. Those 3 are clearly my top 3, way over anyone else. I honestly cant see anyone but Djokovic, Nadal, or Stan winning RG, no way.

And I highly doubt Stan repeats as Champion - so really RG is a two-horse race with the possibility of 1 early upset

 

[mattosgrant]

Djocko may not win anything on clay this year. With the Vesely loss, blood is in the water.

Well if that is the case, Nadal is really likely.

 

[Meles]

Well if that is the case, Nadal is really likely.

I think the Fognini match tomorrow will show if Nadal's serve has was it takes to win. If Fog does damage than Nadal is very much a work in progress. It is hard to imagine anyone beating Nadal in five sets if his form keeps up except Djokovic. Djokovic will have some trouble with the bigger servers because his first return game is surprisingly weak in 2015 and 2016 so far (his Achilles heel on clay.)

 

[Chadillac]

He is 0-1 this year on clay, has never won the french. Why is he the favorite again?

 

[mattosgrant]

He is 0-1 this year on clay, has never won the french. Why is he the favorite again?

Who do you think is?

 

[Chadillac]

Who do you think is?

Looks like a fairly open field atm. Oddly enough nadal seems to be in the best form.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

haha... what does that part of it mean? I get hoping that the wait will end, but you won't enjoy the event, itself?

I was really looking forward to several previous FOs and was always thinking "This is the year". Now I am just like whatever, if it happens great, if not who cares, there is Wimbledon and other tournaments that usually cheer me up.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

I was really looking forward to several previous FOs and was always thinking "This is the year". Now I am just like whatever, if it happens great, if not who cares, there is Wimbledon and other tournaments that usually cheer me up.

The last few for him were rough. Completely agree. But Fed's pain has been much worse... someone laid out the litany in another thread. I know, I know... all the wins soften the blow, but he's lost a crapload of heartbreakers.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

The last few for him were rough. Completely agree. But Fed's pain has been much worse... someone laid out the litany in another thread. I know, I know... all the wins soften the blow, but he's lost a crapload of heartbreakers.

If you are talking about FO only, I wouldn't agree.
Overall though, maybe. He really lost many tight matches, not criticizing him btw.

 

[mattosgrant]

The last few for him were rough. Completely agree. But Fed's pain has been much worse... someone laid out the litany in another thread. I know, I know... all the wins soften the blow, but he's lost a crapload of heartbreakers.

Not at RG really. None of his losses were really that close.

The 2 U.S Open semis he had match point on Djokovic, but Nadal would have been the favorite in both finals anyway.

Wimbledon 2008, Wimbledon 2014, Australian Open 2009, and maybe U.S Open 2009. That is pretty much it.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

If you are talking about FO only, I wouldn't agree.
Overall though, yes. He really lost many tight matches, not criticizing him btw.

Not at RG really. None of his losses were really that close.

The 2 U.S Open semis he had match point on Djokovic, but Nadal would have been the favorite in both finals anyway.

Wimbledon 2008, Wimbledon 2014, Australian Open 2009, and maybe U.S Open 2009. That is pretty much it.

Was talking overall... Post #24 in this thread gives a nice sampling:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/inde...vastating-losses-emotionally-speaking.561130/

But come to think of it... he was emasculated many times at RG. I'm not sure it's so clear-cut that Djok's had it worse. Would say maybe, since he was the one to solve Nadal... and has yet to reap the biggest reward for that. But it's kind of splitting hairs.

 

[tennisaddict]

Not at RG really. None of his losses were really that close.

The 2 U.S Open semis he had match point on Djokovic, but Nadal would have been the favorite in both finals anyway.

Wimbledon 2008, Wimbledon 2014, Australian Open 2009, and maybe U.S Open 2009. That is pretty much it.

'Maybe' USO 2009 ? LOL. He was 2 points away from title.

And no AO 2005 SF ?

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Was talking overall... Post #24 in this thread gives a nice sampling:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/inde...vastating-losses-emotionally-speaking.561130/

But come to think of it... he was emasculated many times at RG. I'm not sure it's so clear-cut that Djok's had it worse. Would say maybe, since he was the one to solve Nadal... and has yet to reap the biggest reward for that. But it's kind of splitting hairs.

I think Novak was closer to beating Rafa in his last 3 losses there, 2013 being the obvious example. We can talk about this forever, but the important thing is Fed 1 Djoko 0. As much as I loved it when Fed completed the collection, it seems "unfair" to me that Novak is yet to do it and probably will never do.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

I think Novak was closer to beating Rafa in his last 3 losses there, 2013 being the obvious example. We can talk about this forever, but the important thing is Fed 1 Djoko 0. As much as I loved it when Fed completed the collection, it seems "unfair" to me that Novak is yet to do it and probably will never do.

Look at it this way: is the likelihood of Djok winning RG this year higher than it was for Fed going into RG '09? We can agree on "probably," right?

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Look at it this way: is the likelihood of Djok winning RG this year higher than it was for Fed going into RG '09? We can agree on "probably," right?

Yes. But I don't think he will handle the pressure, unless he ends up facing some of his bunnies in the final.

 

[DerekNoleFam1]

He gets it this year, he gets in once more.
Not this year, then chances diminish of getting it once or multiple times, and the prospect of zero, like Lendl at Wimbledon, is likely.

 

[Emperor of Belgrade]

Yes. But I don't think he will handle the pressure, unless he ends up facing some of his bunnies in the final.

 

[mattosgrant]

Was talking overall... Post #24 in this thread gives a nice sampling:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/inde...vastating-losses-emotionally-speaking.561130/

But come to think of it... he was emasculated many times at RG. I'm not sure it's so clear-cut that Djok's had it worse. Would say maybe, since he was the one to solve Nadal... and has yet to reap the biggest reward for that. But it's kind of splitting hairs.

The 2013 RG semis were a far bigger heartbreak than anything Federer had at RG. For that matter the 2015 RG final only since he was so heavily expected to win. Federer never had a RG he lost he was either that close to winning or that much expected to win.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

The 2013 RG semis were a far bigger heartbreak than anything Federer had at RG. For that matter the 2015 RG final only since he was so heavily expected to win. Federer never had a RG he lost he was either that close to winning or that much expected to win.

Looking at RG finals, alone, there are a couple that rival Djok's pain at that tournament. Here is one that's probably equivalent, for a number of reasons:

'06 final. Winning this match would have made Fed the first since Laver to hold all four major titles at once. He was undefeated in major finals at that point. He won the first set 6-1. Proceeded to lose the next three sets, the last in a tiebreak.

Edit: Had left out the tag on that reply. Sorry about that.

 

[mattosgrant]

Looking at RG finals, alone, there are a couple that rival Djok's pain at that tournament. Here is one that's probably equivalent, for a number of reasons:

'06 final. Winning this match would have made Fed the first since Laver to hold all four major titles at once. He was undefeated in major finals at that point. He won the first set 6-1. Proceeded to lose the next three sets, the last in a tiebreak.

Come on, even though he won the first set 6-1, he was never on the verge or close to winning the match. It doesn't even compare to 2013. Once Nadal got back on serve in the 2nd set he was in complete control, and Federer had to break to even get into the 4th set tiebreaker.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

Come on, even though he won the first set 6-1, he was never on the verge or close to winning the match. It doesn't even compare to 2013. Once Nadal got back on serve in the 2nd set he was in complete control, and Federer had to break to even get into the 4th set tiebreaker.

Absolutely it does. Even without comparing the actual flow of the match. Fed was 7-0 at major finals before that match. His aura of invincibility was definitively shattered... and for someone of his stature, that was gigantic. He was a nearly invincible tennis demigod then.

 

[mattosgrant]

Absolutely it does. Even without comparing the actual flow of the match. Fed was 7-0 at major finals before that match. His aura of invincibility was definitively shattered... and for someone of his stature, that was gigantic. He was a nearly invincible tennis demigod then.

By that point it was already extremely clear Federer was the underdog to Nadal on clay. Now I can see the Rome match giving some hope, and going up 6-1, 2-0 increasing that hope, but again once Nadal got back on serve in the 2nd set in that RG final he took complete control. There was never a point Federer got even close to winning, nor was he ever expected to win before the match either. It is obvious we aren't going to agree on this at all.

Djokovic has both had far higher/more realistic expectations to either beat Nadal at the French, or win the title/final (eg- last year), and has come much closer (particularly in 2013) to doing so. Add to that he still hasn't won RG. He has had far more obvious and significant dissapointments at RG than Federer.

Djokovic lost the 2015 final as the heavy favorite, lost after being up a break late in the 5th set with that questionable netchord point in the defacto final in 2013 vs Nadal in the semis, and was beaten in a huge upset by Federer in the semis when nearly everyone still believes he would have been the slight favorite over Nadal in the final in 2011. Federer' by contrast lost 4 fairly standard 4 setters as the clear underdog to Nadal in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2011 (2005 maybe less clear at the actual time, but atleast in hindsight more clear). No comparision that I see.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

By that point it was already extremely clear Federer was the underdog to Nadal on clay. Now I can see the Rome match giving some hope, and going up 6-1, 2-0 increasing that hope, but again once Nadal got back on serve in the 2nd set in that RG final he took complete control. There was never a point Federer got even close to winning, nor was he ever expected to win before the match either. It is obvious we aren't going to agree on this at all.

Yeah, thinking agree to disagree maybe. It's about the context of the thing, not the progression of the match, itself. To me, both were brutal in their own ways.

 

[cc0509]

I think if Djokovic wins RG this year he will end up with 2 total RGs minimum, and might even win 3. I cant see him not winning atleast 1 more after this year if he wins this year.

However if he doesn't win RG this year, I can practically guarantee he will win 1 max, and might not even win that.

Winning RG this year would alleviate a lot of pressure in future years, and free him up to play bolder and more relaxed there. Should he not win this year the burden and pressure of the event will only be heightened more as he gets increasingly older.

I will copy this thread, as I am sure either way it will be right (2 RGs minimum if Djokovic wins this year, 1 RG maximum in his career if he doesn't) and we will see I have been right in 5 years or so when Djokovic retires or is almost done.

Oh my gosh mattosgrant, more of these "X player will definitely do this or that" predictions. In the who will win Wimbledon 2012 thread you basically said Federer had no chance of winning it and you were laughing that Federer was leading in the poll. Look how that turned out. These definitive statements about Djokovic are exhausting. There are too many unknown variables which could occur. Let's see if he can win ONE FO at last before we predict that he will win two or three more. You are jumping the gun here. Two or three more years of winning something is IMPOSSIBLE to predict for any player especially a player almost 29. Can we chill a bit?

 

[mattosgrant]

Oh my gosh mattosgrant, more of these "X player will definitely do this or that" predictions. In the who will win Wimbledon 2012 thread you basically said Federer had no chance of winning it and you were laughing that Federer was leading in the poll. Look how that turned out. These definitive statements about Djokovic are exhausting. There are too many unknown variables which could occur. Let's see if he can win ONE FO at last before we predict that he will win two or three more. You are jumping the gun here. Two or three more years of winning something is IMPOSSIBLE to predict for any player especially a player almost 29. Can we chill a bit?

I was not on this forum in 2012, so what you are saying would be impossible. As Djokovic was clearly struggling, getting beat up badly by Nadal on clay all year, it wouldn't be a surprise at all he would be unable to defend his title on his worst surface (atleast what was then viewed as his worst surface).

 

[cc0509]

I was not on this forum in 2012, so what you are saying would be impossible. As Djokovic was clearly struggling, getting beat up badly by Nadal on clay all year, it wouldn't be a surprise at all he would be unable to defend his title on his worst surface (atleast what was then viewed as his worst surface).

Come on now buddy!

My point is we shouldn't be so sure about anything especially trying to predict things two or three years down the road. Way too much can happen.