jl809
Hall of Fame
Djokovic has benefitted from an amazing set of circumstances coming together to allow him to win 7 Wimbledons:
1 (a) He had the weakest competition in his prime and postprime of the 00s ATGs. His prime was perfectly timed; it started when the 2 other ATGs’ grass primes were ending or already over, AND continued when no new ATGs on grass were coming up during his postprime
What a perfect meeting of fortunes! What it all tells us?????
1 (a) He had the weakest competition in his prime and postprime of the 00s ATGs. His prime was perfectly timed; it started when the 2 other ATGs’ grass primes were ending or already over, AND continued when no new ATGs on grass were coming up during his postprime
- Federer's prime competition: peak Nadal 2x, peak Roddick 2x, prime Nadal 1x, prime Roddick 2x
- Nadal's prime competition: peak Federer 2x, peak Djokovic 1x, prime Federer 1x, preprime Murray 3x
- Djokovic's prime competition: prime Nadal 1x, peak Murray 1x, and postprime Federer 2x
- Federer's postprime competition: prime Djokovic 2x, prime Murray 2x, postprime Nadal 1x, mugs (Cilic, Raonic, Anderson)
- Djokovic's postprime competition: super old Federer 1x, postprime Nadal indoors (see later) 1x, mugs (Berrettini + Kyrgios)
- Nadal's postprime competition: lol
- We know prime Djokovic would have been screwed vs prime Federer on grass because of how prime Djokovic could barely handle postprime Federer (lost to him in 2012, narrow win in 2014). Similarly 2019 shows us that Super Old Federer would have destroyed Super Old Djokovic on grass, given how he nearly beat postprime Djokovic.
- 2003 Federer with 2011's competition, 2004 Federer with 2012's competition etc. could win 11 or 12 Wimbledons easily even if Djokovic was still around, because he is better than Djokovic on grass. It's a matchup issue like Nadal at RG.
- Even if you swap 2011 Djokovic into 2003 (i.e. give him the weak era) and put 2003 Federer in 2011, Djokovic probably wins 2003, 2005, 2006 and debatably 07. Again, that is 3 or maybe 4 Wimbledons, not the SEVEN (soon to be EIGHT) we are looking at. Wow!
- You know how people used to say Murray does everything Djokovic does, but a bit worse? On grass it was the reverse. Murray never lost a set against Prime Djokovic on center court, beating him in 2012 at the Olympics and at 2013 in the Wimbledon final all in straight sets. Murray was becoming the grass version of Stan for Djokovic... but since 2013, they have never played at Wimbledon again. Djokovic's titles in 2014 and 15 and his resurgence on grass in 2018-present contained one bit of fortune we don't really talk about - no Murray
- A freak Anderson-Isner match turned the first part of Nadal-Djokovic into an indoor match... then turned it into an indoor match AGAIN in broad sunlight and 30 degrees celsius the following day (for .... reasons...). Nadal is about 1000 times better outdoors than indoors, and given how close the match was (194 points to 190, identical winners and UEs, etc), Nadal fans will rightfully argue taking things outdoors would probably have swung things for their man. No comeback slam for Djokovic, the future looking very different, etc.
- As clearly the only person (other than Federer) competitive enough to beat Djokovic on grass, Nadal gets a 6-month injury in 2021, allowing Djokovic to win a Berrettini Open with an even easier draw than AO 22.
- Then, with Djokovic's rally game looking the worst I've ever seen it, Nadal gets an ab tear that prevents him playing Djokovic in baking conditions on a worn-out, dirt-covered baseline in the 2022 final, allowing Djokovic to win Wimbledon beating - have we blotted it out yet? - Sinner, Norrie and Kyrgios.
- I don't have many words to describe Djokovic's level at Wimbledon in 2021 and 2022. It made 2019 look like 2011. Who would have benefitted from facing this absolutely muggy Djokovic, even with his own level vastly declined? The 2019 Wimbledon finalist. Who was injured in both 2021 and 2022? The 2019 Wimbledon finalist. Hopefully he is back to save tennis in 2023.
What a perfect meeting of fortunes! What it all tells us?????
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