Race to Wimbledon 2017

Who Will Be The Top 4 Seeds?

  • Murray

    Votes: 41 85.4%

  • Djokovic

    Votes: 37 77.1%

  • Raonic

    Votes: 7 14.6%

  • Federer

    Votes: 37 77.1%

  • Wawrinka

    Votes: 14 29.2%

  • Cilic

    Votes: 1 2.1%

  • Tsonga

    Votes: 1 2.1%

  • Nishikori

    Votes: 2 4.2%

  • Dimitrov

    Votes: 9 18.8%

  • Nadal

    Votes: 19 39.6%
  • Total voters
    48
  • Poll closed .
zjtennis

zjtennis

New User
With the Wimbledon only 4 months away, @Slasher1985's Open Era Rankings added an interesting addition to the site: because people had to compute on what special points do players gain for a seeding in Wimbledon, we decided to just add a Wimbledon rankings table instead. With the talk of the seeding for Wimbledon only starting at June at times, I think an early headstart observation should be interesting (with how the bonuses could actually help players who did well on grass the past years, but like Fed, had some issues during the previous season that hampered gaining points, how big of an impact those bonus points had in the upcoming seeding).

Race Link: Wimbledon Race

The points computation for Wimbledon seeding is based on:

Ranking points + Grass points gathered on that ranking + (Best grass tournament of last 13-24 months * .75)

Based on the data, it seems Murray has quite a large lead over Djokovic on the Race -- 5025 points. Murray again could gain points in Queen's Club although I have a hunch that Djokovic may play one grass warmup this year. Fed currently is #4 seed while Stan is #5 -- the 2015 final and 2016 SF (+1620 points) helped him vs. Stan's 2015 QF and 2016 R64 (+315 points), boosting the 2775 points Fed currently has on regular W race points vs. Stan's 3885.

So, who do you think will get the Top 4 seeds?
 
zjtennis said:
With the Wimbledon only 4 months away, @Slasher1985's Open Era Rankings added an interesting addition to the site: because people had to compute on what special points do players gain for a seeding in Wimbledon, we decided to just add a Wimbledon rankings table instead. With the talk of the seeding for Wimbledon only starting at June at times, I think an early headstart observation should be interesting (with how the bonuses could actually help players who did well on grass the past years, but like Fed, had some issues during the previous season that hampered gaining points, how big of an impact those bonus points had in the upcoming seeding).

Race Link: Wimbledon Race

The points computation for Wimbledon seeding is based on:

Ranking points + Grass points gathered on that ranking + (Best grass tournament of last 13-24 months * .75)

Based on the data, it seems Murray has quite a large lead over Djokovic on the Race -- 5025 points. Murray again could gain points in Queen's Club although I have a hunch that Djokovic may play one grass warmup this year. Fed currently is #4 seed while Stan is #5 -- the 2015 final and 2016 SF (+1620 points) helped him vs. Stan's 2015 QF and 2016 R64 (+315 points), boosting the 2775 points Fed currently has on regular W race points vs. Stan's 3885.

So, who do you think will get the Top 4 seeds?
Click to expand...
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@jm1980:rolleyes:

Yours trully pushed for this and it is awesome that it is up and running for Federer's return at IW/Miama. Worldest first and I wonder if players really know where they stand at the moment.:oops: Fed's already number 4 in the race.:eek: Federeristas:rolleyes: #2 seed at Wimby could be had.:D

Greegor fans @ArcspacE @jwjh @amorys90 you know who is at 9 already and a 4th seed very possible.:eek::p

Thiemerer 15.:oops:
 
So you can see the components to the right where the last two years grass results are counted with weighting. Those numbers will stay static. In June grass points will get added to 100% column essentially counting double. The race points would start at Nottingham last year and will keep building until the Monday before the draw just like regular ATP race (simple). #WimbyRace:cool:
WimbyRace.png
 
Fed has HUGE BOOST because of the bonus points. He could have been lower than Stan and Cilic, but the deep runs in Wimbledon in the past years gave him a reprieve (almost the worth of a Slam!). Nadal is quite low, with only 45 bonus points. Ryan Harrison leads the race among those without any bonuses. "S&V Renaissance Man" Mischa Zverev only has 5 bonus points but if he does do well on grass and maximize his current form it will carry well for next year.
 
So this means that Fed would be seeded at least 4 unless someone outside of Murray and Djokovic make some spectacular results?

Federer will definitely add more points this spring than during his 2016 season, so maybe even a chance to get the number 3 seed.
 
Could be one of those years a complete DUD wins Wimbledon. Murray isn't the Murray of old. Nadal's grass prime was gone 5 years ago. Federer is questionable now. The AO may have been his swan song. Wawrinka sucks on grass. Nole remains questionable
 
chut said:
It's certainly one of those weak eras when someone like Washington can sneak into Wimbledon final, right? ;)
Click to expand...


Well he didn't win it though. I bet we see some very questionable players winning Wimbledon over the next half a dozen years.
 
90's Clay said:
Could be one of those years a complete DUD wins Wimbledon. Murray isn't the Murray of old. Nadal's grass prime was gone 5 years ago. Federer is questionable now. The AO may have been his swan song. Wawrinka sucks on grass. Nole remains questionable
Click to expand...

You maybe on to something. I do think RG will tell a lot and some may fall short come Wimbledon.
 
Federer's seeding doesn't matter much IMO. I prefer he faces the top players in early rounds than later rounds for some reason :P
 
6-3 6-0 said:
Don't be ridiculous. Its too early to say but if I were to choose one it'd be definitely the defending champion Andy Murray.
Click to expand...

The way I see it is, I'd put my money on Murray to reach the final over Fed, but if the two meet I have Fed as heavy favourite in the match up.
 
KINGROGER said:
The way I see it is, I'd put my money on Murray to reach the final over Fed, but if the two meet I have Fed as heavy favourite in the match up.
Click to expand...
Form counts more than the history especially for Federer who is 35. It is still way too early to predict anything and Federer won't be heavy favourite against the top guys at this stage especially against the world #1 :rolleyes:
 
6-3 6-0 said:
Form counts more than the history especially for Federer who is 35. It is still way too early to predict anything and Federer won't be heavy favourite against the top guys at this stage especially against the world #1 :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

I don't see too much difference between 14-15 Fed and now, and 14-15 Murray and now to say that Murray will turn the H2H around in his favour.

I think on clay or slow HC Murray would have the edge, but anywhere like Wimbledon, Cincinatti or WTF I'd make Fed heavy favourite. I think he'd destroy Murray with his GOAT serving and aggressive game.
 
6-3 6-0 said:
Don't be ridiculous. Its too early to say but if I were to choose one it'd be definitely the defending champion Andy Murray.
Click to expand...

The confidence Fed would have got from the 4 top 10 wins at AO 17 is too much.

It is Fed's Wimbledon to lose given that Djokovic has dropped form . The only disclaimer is if somehow Djokovic is able to revert back to 2015 form
 
90's Clay said:
Kraijicek was on fire that tournament like a Safin at the USO in 2000 or 2005 AO. Hes gonna give anyone problems
Click to expand...
He's a Mug Slam wonder who took advantage of an abyss like vacuum of talent in the draw that year. How many other slam finals did he make? ROFLMAO
 
90's Clay said:
He has re-occuring injury issues throughout his career
Click to expand...
You're on the edge of a knife Mr. Frodo. Either you admit Kracijek was a LOL slam Wonder and acknowledge Sampras was Loligagged like a joke by a clown in a circus field or you admit Kracijek was a great competitor, and was never around, thereby also admitting Sampras was a circus Ringmaster without true competition.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I pick them same current top 4 from the race. Only exception could be Stan instead of Raonic. I see Nadal at 5th at best.
 
TheGhostOfAgassi said:
Kyrgios to win Wimbledon this year. He is not top 4, but who cares. That seed list is boring besides Dimitrov.
Click to expand...
The seed list is actually excellent given that Dimitrov is likely to displace Nishikori in the top 8. 8 strong grass court players. The two seed is there for the taking for Federer. Wawrinka is the only weak link, but he still has delusions of winning the whole thing.:rolleyes:
 
I would love a "mug" to win Wimbledon...think about it:

"Dustin Brown - Wimbledon Champion 2017"
​
I don't think there would be any complaints with that. :D
 
If Federer beats Sock he'll be third in the race.

If he wins IW he'll be only 510 behind Djokovic for Wimbledon second seed
 
Now we see the effect of the bonus points -- without the bonus points, Fed would be 3rd in the Race, but instead, he's #2. That being said, Djokovic is surprisingly #4 by normal points. Berdych got a good boost from #13 by normal points to #9 with bonuses, although still belongs in the same seeding group. Stan got the short end of the stick though, from being #2 in the normal points (meets #1 in F) to #5 with bonuses (could meet #1 in QF).
 
If Federer gets 2nd seed he has a 50% chance of avoiding Djokoray until the final. (and he'd probably land Wawrinka in his half, who most likely won't make the SFs)
 
Djokovic scrapes past Federer for No 2. Nadal may also move past him dependent on upcoming Rome and RG performances. It looks like it will be a tight race for No 2, with Djokovic having no scheduled grass preparation and Federer likely to gain good points at Stuttgart/Halle. (which are worth 'double')
 
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