TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
I started a similar thread last year after Wimbledon. Let's see where this one goes.
Current standings in the Race to London:
Nadal: 9225
Djokovic 7265
Federer: 5510
At this point, these 3 are the only real contenders. Medvedev could also be considered assuming he wins the US Open, but at that point Federer and Medvedev's race totals would be so similar you could substitute him anywhere below for Federer and nothing would change.
With 4500 points left on the table after the US Open, it comes down to what happens in the next week. Nadal has 1640 points left on the table in New York, and can take it all home. Assuming he does, he'll have 9225 points. At that point, it's nigh impossible for Federer to catch up. Even without Nadal winning the US Open, Federer still has to win 1 of the Big Titles and Basel to have a real chance, with solid showings in the other two.
Beijing/Tokyo (500)
Shanghai (1000)
Basel/Vienna (500)
Paris (1000)
London (1500)
The saving grace for Nadal's opponents is that he will likely play fewer events post-USO. If what I hear is true, that's Paris and London.
What I'm going to do is play off an assumption (else this race becomes a slaughter):
Federer can win. It's just a matter of how far we're willing to stretch our belief. First say Federer wins Basel, the WTF (without losing a match), Shanghai, and Paris. That's 4000 points, and Federer is at 9510. If Federer is to do this, I don't see how he could have played China/Tokyo beforehand. That would be too much time on court.
If we assume Federer wins every single match he plays for the rest of the year, Nadal just needs to win the US Open and 2 RR matches at the WTF to come out ahead. Alternatively, the US Open, 1 RR match, and a R4 at Paris.
The following is a best case scenario:
Nadal: (9425)
2. Djokovic victory (2018 performance)
Djokovic performed very well late last year. Not as great as 2013, but we'll get to that eventuality.
Assuming everything is the same...
Nadal: (10225)
3. Djokovic (2013 performance) vs Nadal (best theoretical performance to date)
The very epitome of Djokovic's post-USO performances. He was right on the verge of catching Nadal that year as well, but Nadal mounted his greatest post-USO season as well.
Nadal: (10825)
Of course, no talk of the Race is complete without mentioning the obvious. All of these are exceptions to the rule. In each of these scenarios I either hold Nadal's competition to very high standards or make Nadal himself perform sub-par because otherwise it isn't a race, it's just Nadal winning.
Current standings in the Race to London:
Nadal: 9225
Djokovic 7265
Federer: 5510
At this point, these 3 are the only real contenders. Medvedev could also be considered assuming he wins the US Open, but at that point Federer and Medvedev's race totals would be so similar you could substitute him anywhere below for Federer and nothing would change.
With 4500 points left on the table after the US Open
Beijing/Tokyo (500)
Shanghai (1000)
Basel/Vienna (500)
Paris (1000)
London (1500)
The saving grace for Nadal's opponents is that he will likely play fewer events post-USO. If what I hear is true, that's Paris and London.
What I'm going to do is play off an assumption (else this race becomes a slaughter):
- Djokovic and Federer do not simultaneously do well. This will drastically reduce each of their chances at victory.
Federer can win. It's just a matter of how far we're willing to stretch our belief. First say Federer wins Basel, the WTF (without losing a match), Shanghai, and Paris. That's 4000 points, and Federer is at 9510. If Federer is to do this, I don't see how he could have played China/Tokyo beforehand. That would be too much time on court.
If we assume Federer wins every single match he plays for the rest of the year, Nadal just needs to win the US Open and 2 RR matches at the WTF to come out ahead. Alternatively, the US Open, 1 RR match, and a R4 at Paris.
The following is a best case scenario:
Nadal: (9425)
US Open: W
Paris: Withdraw
WTF: 1 RR win (drawn with Federer, Tsitsipas, and Nishikori)
Federer: (9510)Shanghai: W
Basel: W
Paris: W
WTF: W (1 loss not to Rafa)
Djokovic: (9465)Tokyo: W
Shanghai: F
Paris: F
WTF: RR (2 RR wins - loss in semifinal)
I don't think Federer's getting YE#1.
2. Djokovic victory (2018 performance)
Djokovic performed very well late last year. Not as great as 2013, but we'll get to that eventuality.
Assuming everything is the same...
Nadal: (10225)
US Open: W
Paris: SF
WTF: SF (2 wins, loses in SF to Djokovic because Federer led that group with 3-0)
Djokovic: (10365)Tokyo: W
Shanghai: W
Paris: F (loss to young gun)
WTF: F (no losses)
Not too shabby. Nadal would put up decent results, and Novak could still come out ahead with a very consistent end to the year, and only just beats out Nadal.3. Djokovic (2013 performance) vs Nadal (best theoretical performance to date)
The very epitome of Djokovic's post-USO performances. He was right on the verge of catching Nadal that year as well, but Nadal mounted his greatest post-USO season as well.
Nadal: (10825)
US Open: W
Shanghai: Withdraw
Paris: F (loss to Djokovic)
WTF: F (3-0 in RR, loss in final to Djokovic)
Djokovic: (11065)Tokyo: W
Shanghai: W
Paris: W
WTF: W (one loss)
ConclusionOf course, no talk of the Race is complete without mentioning the obvious. All of these are exceptions to the rule. In each of these scenarios I either hold Nadal's competition to very high standards or make Nadal himself perform sub-par because otherwise it isn't a race, it's just Nadal winning.
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