Race to YE#1 - Nadal leads Djokovic by ~ 2000 points

How the heck is that even possible?

Novak has been far and away the best player this season. When did I blink?
Nadal won four of the last five tournaments he played in, which are two Slams and two Masters. Novak didn't even make it to the final in any of those except Rome.

After the Australian Open he's only outperformed Nadal in Madrid, Wimbledon and Cincinnati. Hence the noticeable advantage in Nadal's favor.
 

Lebsta

Rookie
I haven't looked into it but what's the minimum Rafa has to play to secure #1 YE? I believe he hardly has anything to defend post US Open. Will a couple of round robin wins at WTF be enough or can he secure it before then?

To get 200+ weeks at #1 would be a nice bonus addition to his GOAT case which just got a massive boost tonight.
 

hipolymer

Hall of Fame
How the heck is that even possible?

Novak has been far and away the best player this season. When did I blink?
That's why they call it luck of the draw.
He had brutal draws in Rome, at RG, at Cinci, at USO
while Rafa had easy draws in Rome, RG, Montreal, and USO
all those tournaments together are 6000 points, so it's easy to see a 2000 point difference now
 

RaulRamirez

Hall of Fame
How the heck is that even possible?

Novak has been far and away the best player this season. When did I blink?
I was under that assumption as welll, as Novak won handily at the AO, and had a big lead in carry-over points. But Rafa has a final and a semi to Novak's semi and a R of 16 in the other two majors, and has a 2-1 lead in M1000s. He's been the better player in 2019, and I don't know if Novak can/will go all out for YE #1.
 

MeatTornado

Legend
wat?

they each have 2 slams. rafa made the finals of 3/4 of them and the semis or better of all 4. Novak 2 of the 4. and semis in 3/4.
Obviously, Rafa has better mathematical results.

I'm saying to me it seems like Novak has been the best player on the courts this year. His peak >> Rafa's peak. End of the day a win's a win and they count for equal points. But it seems like Rafa's been much more vulnerable to me throughout the year. Even on clay he looked lost for 3 tournaments in a row.

This is like a GOAT/BOAT splitting hairs debate.
 

Tenez101

Hall of Fame
How the heck is that even possible?

Novak has been far and away the best player this season. When did I blink?
Nadal has been under the radar, consistently going deep in every tourney he enters. 2-2 slams, and another final and semi appearance for Rafa.
 

MeatTornado

Legend
Nadal has been under the radar, consistently going deep in every tourney he enters. 2-2 slams, and another final and semi appearance for Rafa.
I keep thinking about all the poor tournaments he had. But then I really think about it and Djokovic didn't do any better in a lot of them.

IW/Mia/MC was bad for both of them.
 

Subway Tennis

Hall of Fame
Yes, have to think that Nadal fans tonight are feeling a lot like Novak fans after Wimbledon. A combination of elation, anxiety, and disbelief. And mental fatigue!
I have to say it's a great feeling but the feeling for Djokovic fans after Wimbledon must have been something on another planet.
 

James P

Hall of Fame
It's doable, but it's a tall order. If Nadal shuts it down until Oz, it'll make a lot easier.
 

papertank

Hall of Fame
Djokovic is playing at least 4 tournaments the rest of the season. He doesn't need to win all of them. This is a realistic way it could go down for a Djokovic win:

Djokovic:
Tokyo W (500)
Shanghai W (1000)
Paris F (600)
WTF F (800)
Total points: 10165

Nadal:
Shanghai QF (180)
Paris QF (180)
WTF SF (400)
Total points: 9985

This is a tall order for Djokovic, and it assumes that Nadal won't really show up, but both of these paths have precedent, so we'll see what happens. There's also a chance that Nadal could pull out of one or more of these events, giving Djokovic even more leeway.
 

titoelcolombiano

Hall of Fame
If Shanghai is the next tournament Djoker plays, he needs to win it to maintain his # 1 ranking if my calculations are correct. He will have a 640 point lead when the new rankings come out in a few hours. The only way he holds on is by defending his 1000 points from Shanghai last year and Rafa doesn't play. If Rafa plays Shanghai, every win will eat into the lead a little, even if Djoker wins the tournament.

This pressure to defend points will be there for the rest of the year for Djoker as he defends 600 in Paris and 1000 at the WTF. Rafa has nothing to defend for the rest of the year (but might not play too much either).
 

Shaj

New User
He messed up during Sunshine Double,took almost two vacations in the middle of the season..what did we expect??
 
If Shanghai is the next tournament Djoker plays, he needs to win it to maintain his # 1 ranking if my calculations are correct. He will have a 640 point lead when the new rankings come out in a few hours. The only way he holds on is by defending his 1000 points from Shanghai last year and Rafa doesn't play. If Rafa plays Shanghai, every win will eat into the lead a little, even if Djoker wins the tournament.

This pressure to defend points will be there for the rest of the year for Djoker as he defends 600 in Paris and 1000 at the WTF. Rafa has nothing to defend for the rest of the year (but might not play too much either).
What if nadal participates in China open?
He's had some success there. The latest title coming in 2017
 
Top