RAFA has a legit chance of winning WTF

octogon

Hall of Fame
I strongly disagree that Tim gets "lucky" when he beats a top player

wasn't there a thread earlier in the week how Tim has the best H2H against Fedalovic among the younger players on tour?

besides, he already edged out Nadal at a HC slam earlier in the year and he outclutched him at the WTF

no luck involved

I think with Nadal, it's the fact that he won those HC matches due to 4 consecutive tiebreaks. To me, I often consider tiebreaks a bit of a lottery, so I can understand the "luck" claim if someone is just edging out an opponent on tiebreaks.
 

ibbi

Legend
Rafa is playing pretty well, to be fair. He's serving really well, but the blips he has had have all notably come at the tail end of sets (in the breakers with Thiem, serving last in the second with Tsitsipas).

I agree that with the exception of Thiem the other three matches all look winnable. Zverev looks pretty bad, and Novak got bossed by Medvedev, but you know both those guys can turn it on against him.

Medvedev as Bercy champion, and being 2 for 2 here is pretty much the form player and after last year will surely want vengeance here too. As far as Thiem is concerned, their matches this year have all basically come down to tiebreakers, yeah, but I don't think you can dismiss it as luck when he's won all 5 of them :-D I think Nadal's best chance there is assuming Domi continues to be a massive choke artist in finals.

I agree it's as good a chance as he's going to get being relatively fresh after the short year, in good form, with nobody looking particularly dominant and as he's only going to get older and older each time after, but... I dunno, I'd give him a 50/50 chance, I don't know that it's much better than that. Today's early match will be telling.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
The fact that Nadal has only lost to Thiem in their last 2 hardcourt matches because of 4 consecutive tiebreaks lost by Nadal show the margin on hardcourts between them is pretty damned thin, and if Rafa ups his focus by a couple of % points, he should have no problem beating Thiem on hardcourt again.
Except I didn't say that Nadal can't win only that Thiem should be favored.
 

TheNachoMan

Hall of Fame
Damn this Thiem guy gets luckier and luckier with time.

He should be the favorite against Nadal in every match they play from now on on HC.
Thiem is the LOAT. Only has a slam because Rafa couldn’t be bothered to buy a plane ticket and Novak decided to pelt a ball into a woman’s throat :sick:
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Thiem is the LOAT. Only has a slam because Rafa couldn’t be bothered to buy a plane ticket and Novak decided to pelt a ball into a woman’s throat :sick:
I will be shocked if Thiem doesn't win another Slam, especially in the next 2 years. The guy can beat anyone anywhere.
 

octogon

Hall of Fame
He's world class, and at his best, he's arguably the best player in the world right now.
I respect Thiem's game, but "arguably best player in the world now" is a real big stretch. He barely beat Zverev in a horrible chokefest for the US Open, and hasn't done anything amazing since. Beating Rafa on two tiebreaks in his worst conditions doesn't suddenly elevate him to that kind of level. I think his ranking (World no.3) is entirely appropriate to his level, at his best right now. He can beat anyone on his day, as the world no.3 should be able to.

That is not to say he cannot become the best player in the world, or show that level one day. But I certainly haven't seen it this year.
 

Amritia

Hall of Fame
I respect Thiem's game, but "arguably best player in the world now" is a real big stretch. He barely beat Zverev in a horrible chokefest for the US Open, and hasn't done anything amazing since. Beating Rafa on two tiebreaks in his worst conditions doesn't suddenly elevate him to that kind of level. I think his ranking (World no.3) is entirely appropriate to his level, at his best right now. He can beat anyone on his day, as the world no.3 should be able to.

That is not to say he cannot become the best player in the world, or show that level one day. But I certainly haven't seen it this year.
I didn't say he is the best player in the world right now. He's too inconsistent for that.
I wouldn't read too much into the final vs Zverev. It was his first slam final where he was favourite, and he also had a minor injury. Coming back from 2 sets and a break down to win actually is a great sign of mental resilience.

The bookies currently have him as 4th favourite for the WTF, and there's only 5 players left who can win it. In reality he's probably marginally favourite.
 

octogon

Hall of Fame
Coming back from 2 sets and a break down to win actually is a great sign of mental resilience.
I dunno. I feel like Zverev trying to choke the match away had more to do with that, than Herculean mental strength from Thiem.

It was a truly terrible final. Like I said, both were choking throughout the whole match, and Zverev opened the door for Thiem because he wasn't clutch enough. We'll see if Thiem has what it takes in slam finals against the big boys (Djokovic, Nadal) going forward.
 

Amritia

Hall of Fame
I dunno. I feel like Zverev trying to choke the match away had more to do with that, than Herculean mental strength from Thiem.

It was a truly terrible final. Like I said, both were choking throughout the whole match, and Zverev opened the door for Thiem because he wasn't clutch enough. We'll see if Thiem has what it takes in slam finals against the big boys (Djokovic, Nadal) going forward.
He was injured too. He will be very competitive in future slam finals against Djokovic and Nadal.
 

SonnyT

Hall of Fame
If he can ever win another tiebreak! In London, 3 tiebreaks, 3 losses against Thiem and Meddy!

In Melbourne, 3 tiebreaks, 3 losses against Thiem.
 
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