Rafa is 3-0 on clay vs. Djokovic in 2017-2019, so if Djokovic can go deep at the clay events this year Rafa will tie the H2H at 29-29

Raphael Nadal

Hall of Fame
And Djokovic of course is the favorite at the AO, but even the most tired version of Rafa almost won the 2nd Set - 5 break points in one game, and up a minibreak in the tiebreaker before Djokovic's shot hit the net and lobbed over Rafa's head :)
 

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
Djokovic will likely put up a better fight on clay than Rafa does on HC, but you could be correct. It's all on Djokovic to have a better clay season, like Rafa also, and hopefully serve us some great matches.
 

Breakpointerer

Hall of Fame
And Djokovic of course is the favorite at the AO, but even the most tired version of Rafa almost won the 2nd Set - 5 break points in one game, and up a minibreak in the tiebreaker before Djokovic's shot hit the net and lobbed over Rafa's head :)
Surprised that you said Djokovic is the favourite considering your last thread
 

Raphael Nadal

Hall of Fame
OP expects absolutely nothing from now until April.

Nevermind AO, IW, and Miami :D
I don't think Rafa will play IW and Miami, because he's had no break for a year :)
AO I think Rafa will beat Djokovic, but Djokovic is the betting favorite so its too complicated to include in my forecast.
 

ChrisRF

Hall of Fame
Djokovic will likely put up a better fight on clay than Rafa does on HC, but you could be correct. It's all on Djokovic to have a better clay season, like Rafa also, and hopefully serve us some great matches.
To be fair, Nadal made it a good fight in the 2nd set. On clay an opponent always has a hard time to even make one single set competitive against Rafa. But of course Djokovic is one of the very few candidates who are expected to do so.
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Because the future is always the same as the past. Why not use the last time Djokovic was #2 and Nadal was #1? They went 1-1 in 2014 clay tournaments. I could see the same this year.

If we use the last two years as indicators, then we should expect Djokovic to win 75% of their future matches. Hell, if we use 2015-2016 as indicators, Nadal should never beat Djokovic again.

"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything."
 

Wilsonpro

Rookie
But is Djokovic good enough to reach the finals of multiple clay events?
Let's hope so :)
If they meet at Wimbledon its a tossup, as their last meeting was 10-8 in the 5th Set.
Djokovic not really a factor on clay or american hard courts nowadays. His game is more built around faster courts. Nadal clearly the most complete player on tour at the moment.
 

dr325i

Legend
And Djokovic of course is the favorite at the AO, but even the most tired version of Rafa almost won the 2nd Set - 5 break points in one game, and up a minibreak in the tiebreaker before Djokovic's shot hit the net and lobbed over Rafa's head :)
Why was this "the most tired" version of Rafa??
Did he play more matches than Novak at the ATP cup? Longer matches?
Had to put the kids to bed?
Lame excuse for the loss... Instead, read what your boy, Rafa, said about the loss

BTW, that Rome final, that is what a TIRED player looks like, and with a valid reason and still, novak took a set off the King of Clay!
 
This thread shows the ridiculous overrating of H2H for some people. I do think it is a stat with some marginal meaning. Or more the interpretation beyond the sheer numbers of it, like I believe a large reason Navratilova is seen above Evert for most people is most people come to the conclusion she won their head to head war in a way that goes beyond 43-37. Nowhere near as much as some H2H obsessed people, mostly Nadal fans it seems, think it is.
 

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
Nadal better hope it's not like 2011 where Nadal couldn't even take a set off of Djokovic on clay.
They met twice on clay in 2011. Its not like they went toe to toe loads LOL But nevermind, as in 2012 it was 8 sets to 1 on clay to Nadal. Normal service resumed.

Oh, and incase you didn't know. Its not 2011. Djokovic is nowhere near that level, nevermind Nadal.

That wont happen.
 

JaoSousa

Semi-Pro
This thread shows the ridiculous overrating of H2H for some people. I do think it is a stat with some marginal meaning. Or more the interpretation beyond the sheer numbers of it, like I believe a large reason Navratilova is seen above Evert for most people is most people come to the conclusion she won their head to head war in a way that goes beyond 43-37. Nowhere near as much as some H2H obsessed people, mostly Nadal fans it seems, think it is.
How the hell did they even meet that many times?
 

Krish0608

Hall of Fame
Definitely . Thiem beat Federer and Nadal a much better hard court player than Thiem. Proof is further highlighted by fact Nadal won US Open a few months later.
You have a point had Nadal won USO beating Federer. The last 5 times Federer and Nadal have met on a HC, its been 5-0. Where do you fans draw this confidence from?
 

Wilsonpro

Rookie
You have a point had Nadal won USO beating Federer. The last 5 times Federer and Nadal have met on a HC, its been 5-0. Where do you fans draw this confidence from?
Generally on outdoor HC where ball gets up high Nadal beats Federer. AO (since 2017) Miami and Shanghai all keep low and the Nadal federer matchup is all about the Federer BH. If it spits up Nadal wins. If its sitting in Federer wheelhouse his BH cross court can hurt Nadal. Im in no doubt in conditions like last year Nadal would have won in IW. Conversely i think Federer would have beat him in Miami.
 
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