rafa/roger both about 10/1 on USO

C

citybert

Hall of Fame
many sites have both rafa and federer at about 10/1. anyone think this is a good bet or is it basically just burning money.

obvious reasons: Rafa looks done and fed while playing well looks really tired in long matches due to age

reasons for: Rafa turns it around and roger's latest aggressive tactics of shortening points pays off over two weeks

think I saw one site with Rafa at 16/1 but I doubt that will hold.

FYI this is to win. not to meet as we all know that has never happened (not counting Arthur ashe kids day)
 
citybert said:
many sites have both rafa and federer at about 10/1. anyone think this is a good bet or is it basically just burning money.

obvious reasons: Rafa looks done and fed while playing well looks really tired in long matches due to age

reasons for: Rafa turns it around and roger's latest aggressive tactics of shortening points pays off over two weeks

think I saw one site with Rafa at 16/1 but I doubt that will hold.

FYI this is to win. not to meet as we all know that has never happened (not counting Arthur ashe kids day)
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Forget Nadal. Fed has a good chance (at least 10/1). I would take Fed at that rate (if I had the money to gamble:().
 
citybert said:
many sites have both rafa and federer at about 10/1. anyone think this is a good bet or is it basically just burning money.

obvious reasons: Rafa looks done and fed while playing well looks really tired in long matches due to age

reasons for: Rafa turns it around and roger's latest aggressive tactics of shortening points pays off over two weeks

think I saw one site with Rafa at 16/1 but I doubt that will hold.

FYI this is to win. not to meet as we all know that has never happened (not counting Arthur ashe kids day)
Click to expand...

Burning money if you bet on Rafa.
 
citybert said:
many sites have both rafa and federer at about 10/1. anyone think this is a good bet or is it basically just burning money.

obvious reasons: Rafa looks done and fed while playing well looks really tired in long matches due to age

reasons for: Rafa turns it around and roger's latest aggressive tactics of shortening points pays off over two weeks

think I saw one site with Rafa at 16/1 but I doubt that will hold.

FYI this is to win. not to meet as we all know that has never happened (not counting Arthur ashe kids day)
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here are the odds, Fed's only returning half of what Rafa's returning:
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens/winner

I don't trust Fed in best of 5 and I don't trust Rafa's form. With that in mind, it's burned money imo. But a few bucks on either can't hurt.

The US Open is an affair between Novak, Murray and possibly Stan imo. Fed might play spoiler, but I don't see him winning the whole thing.
 
Where did you find such odds?

I see Federer at 6/1 and Nadal at 14/1 (behind Wawrinka and Nishikori, both at 12/1). Murray at 3/1, Djokovic at 6/5
 
Federer at 10/1 seems reasonable for a small punt. If he wins against Nole tomorrow those odds are going away.
 
tennis_pro said:
Where did you find such odds?

I see Federer at 6/1 and Nadal at 14/1 (behind Wawrinka and Nishikori, both at 12/1). Murray at 3/1, Djokovic at 6/5
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Fed's returning 8 times the money and Rafa's 17 in my link above (decimal).
tennis_pro said:
Fed will need a good draw and a Djokovic/Murray SF with Murray winning in tough 5 sets. Not likely but possible.
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that's true, but I honestly don't dare to hope
 
Chanwan said:
Fed's returning 8 times the money and Rafa's 17 in my link above (decimal).

that's true, but I honestly don't dare to hope
Click to expand...

I actually think that Djokovic is the only player capable of beating Federer at the US Open this year. No Cilic miracle this year, the guy is a joke right now (for a US Open champion), caught lightning in a bottle, sucked before and has been sucking since.

The only players able to push Djokovic are either Wawrinka or Murray. I'd love to see Djokovic having to go through Isner, Wawrinka, Murray just to get to Federer...
 
tennis_pro said:
I actually think that Djokovic is the only player capable of beating Federer at the US Open this year. No Cilic miracle this year, the guy is a joke, caught lightning in a bottle, sucked before and has been sucking since. And the only players able to push Djokovic are either Wawrinka or Murray. I'd love to see Djokovic having to go through Isner, Wawrinka, Murray just to get to Federer...
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You have way more faith in the old man than I do then. Remember Cilic? Remember Monfils? Remember Robredo (okay, that was 2013, but still), remember Birdman? Remember Seppi at the AO?

Fed CAN lose to a lot of players. He can also beat pretty much everyone except probably Djoko.
 
10/1 odds are good for Federer. Well worth a bet. I'd need longer odds before putting action on Rafa. 14/1 or 15/1 would be enticing though.
 
Chanwan said:
You have way more faith in the old man than I do then. Remember Cilic? Remember Monfils? Remember Robredo (okay, that was 2013, but still), remember Birdman? Remember Seppi at the AO?

Fed CAN lose to a lot of players. He can also beat pretty much everyone except probably Djoko.
Click to expand...

I have a feeling Federer might win the US Open this year if someone takes care of Djokovic or tires him out. Haven't felt this good about his chances for years, he's fresh and ready to go.
 
tennis_pro said:
I have a feeling Federer might win the US Open this year if someone takes care of Djokovic or tires him out. Haven't felt this good about his chances for years, he's fresh and ready to go.
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At the US or at slams? I've lost close to all slam hope after the recent Wimbledon-final. Would obviously loved to be proved wrong.
 
tennis_pro said:
Fed will need a good draw and a Djokovic/Murray SF with Murray winning in tough 5 sets. Not likely but possible.
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Fed gets good draws at events where he has no chance. But the moment it is Wimb or USO, he will have the best players lined up in QF/SF/Final. Look for Stan/Novak/Murray in his draw.
 
Chanwan said:
You have way more faith in the old man than I do then. Remember Cilic? Remember Monfils? Remember Robredo (okay, that was 2013, but still), remember Birdman? Remember Seppi at the AO?

Fed CAN lose to a lot of players. He can also beat pretty much everyone except probably Djoko.
Click to expand...

It's amazing how short peoples' memories are. Federer hasn't made a HC slam final since AO 2010 and time is not on his side. To say that "Djokovic is only person capable of beating him at the USO" as the previous poster did seems downright delusional. Murray would have to be a considerable favourite against him in best-of-5 on HCs with them having comparable rest. You can't read too much into their match today (Fed took last week off while Murray won Canada and was playing his 9th match in 11-12 days) nor at Wimbledon (much more favourable surface for Fed at this point in his career).
 
CDNguy87 said:
It's amazing how short peoples' memories are. Federer hasn't made a HC slam final since AO 2010 and time is not on his side. To say that "Djokovic is only person capable of beating him at the USO" as the previous poster did seems downright delusional. Murray would have to be a considerable favourite against him in best-of-5 on HCs with them having comparable rest. You can't read too much into their match today (Fed took last week off while Murray won Canada and was playing his 9th match in 11-12 days) nor at Wimbledon (much more favourable surface for Fed at this point in his career).
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Exactly, at the US Open, I would expect close to a 50-50 match (small edge Fed) between Fed and Muzz despite Fed owning him recently. And it only takes one bad day of which he has had plenty in the HC slams for him to lose to other players than Nole.
@tennis_pro - aren't they a bit slower and higher bouncing though?
 
tennis_pro said:
I actually think that Djokovic is the only player capable of beating Federer at the US Open this year. No Cilic miracle this year, the guy is a joke right now (for a US Open champion), caught lightning in a bottle, sucked before and has been sucking since.

The only players able to push Djokovic are either Wawrinka or Murray. I'd love to see Djokovic having to go through Isner, Wawrinka, Murray just to get to Federer...
Click to expand...

nFzHjYK.gif
 
CDNguy87 said:
It's amazing how short peoples' memories are. Federer hasn't made a HC slam final since AO 2010 and time is not on his side. To say that "Djokovic is only person capable of beating him at the USO" as the previous poster did seems downright delusional. Murray would have to be a considerable favourite against him in best-of-5 on HCs with them having comparable rest. You can't read too much into their match today (Fed took last week off while Murray won Canada and was playing his 9th match in 11-12 days) nor at Wimbledon (much more favourable surface for Fed at this point in his career).
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Yes let's disregard the Wimbledon match to suit our own agenda:rolleyes:
 
Chanwan said:
At the US or at slams? I've lost close to all slam hope after the recent Wimbledon-final. Would obviously loved to be proved wrong.
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Yeah, I don't think the 18th Slam is happening anymore. Wimbledon 2015 felt like the best chance he'd ever have. Not that he should, really. 17 is plenty.
 
The_18th_Slam said:
Yeah, I don't think the 18th Slam is happening anymore. Wimbledon 2015 felt like the best chance he'd ever have. Not that he should, really. 17 is plenty.
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Wimbledon 2014 = last chance Federer will ever have
US Open 2014 = last chance Federer will ever have
Wimbledon 2015 = last chance Federer will ever have.

YAWN.
 
tennis_pro said:
I actually think that Djokovic is the only player capable of beating Federer at the US Open this year. No Cilic miracle this year, the guy is a joke right now (for a US Open champion), caught lightning in a bottle, sucked before and has been sucking since.

The only players able to push Djokovic are either Wawrinka or Murray. I'd love to see Djokovic having to go through Isner, Wawrinka, Murray just to get to Federer...
Click to expand...
Heck, why not all of them at once while we're at it.
 
NBP said:
Yes let's disregard the Wimbledon match to suit our own agenda:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

No, we disregard Wimbledon because it's a completely different surface that has little predictive value for the USO. If Murray met Fed at Roland Garros this year, Murray almost certainly would have come out on top. Would that have had any practical implications for a potential USO encounter between them?
 
The_18th_Slam said:
I don't care if "they all" said that twice last year. I didn't. I'm not myopic. You're thick.
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Yes, I'm sure if Federer ever loses another slam final you will be touting: "Oh, there goes Federer's last best chance at an 18th slam!"
YAWN. Very predictable, knee-jerk and myopic. Nothing new.
 
Inanimate_object said:
Yes, I'm sure if Federer ever loses another slam final you will be touting: "Oh, there goes Federer's last best chance at an 18th slam!"
YAWN. Very predictable, knee-jerk and myopic. Nothing new.
Click to expand...
So you're calling me myopic for things I "will" do in the future? You know where to shove your crystal ball :D
 
The logic is simple ... Federer has much chances of a deep run , but very low chances to succed after SF...

Nadal has lower chances to have a deep run (heavily dependant on th draw at the moment) but there is still this small chance that if he turn things around and reach a slam sf again he can wake up and win a slam...

Federer cant win a slam final at wimbledon.. let alone succeding at US open where he hanst been able to reach a final after the 09 loss against delpo
 
Both 10/1? Here is what I am getting. Will change after draw most likely. Plus you probably see a flood money put on Fed if he wins tonight thus bringing his odds in.

Nole 6/5
Andy 10/3
Fed 6/1
Stan 12/1
Kei 12/1
Nadal 14/1
Cilic 25/1
Dimi 33/1
Raonic 33/1
Berd 40/1
Tsonga 50/1
NK 80/1
Gulbis 100/1
Tomic 100/1
Ferrer 100/1
Monfils 100/1
 
Chicharito said:
Both 10/1? Here is what I am getting. Will change after draw most likely. Plus you probably see a flood money put on Fed if he wins tonight thus bringing his odds in.

Nole 6/5
Andy 10/3
Fed 6/1
Stan 12/1
Kei 12/1
Nadal 14/1
Cilic 25/1
Dimi 33/1
Raonic 33/1
Berd 40/1
Tsonga 50/1
NK 80/1
Gulbis 100/1
Tomic 100/1
Ferrer 100/1
Monfils 100/1
Click to expand...

at some point after feds won the it was updated to 6/1 on most sites. before it was showing 8/1 to 10/1.

beating a guy like murray who had better odds will move it instantly
 
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If Djokovic meets Murray in the semi's with Fed waiting in the final, I'd give him a shot. He hasn't even been in a final for 6 years though, so highly unlikely anything will happen. Nadal looks cooked, at least for this year.
 
CDNguy87 said:
No, we disregard Wimbledon because it's a completely different surface that has little predictive value for the USO. If Murray met Fed at Roland Garros this year, Murray almost certainly would have come out on top. Would that have had any practical implications for a potential USO encounter between them?
Click to expand...
That's totally different. Wimbledon and the US Open are not only similar speeds, but less than two months apart, and form could be similar. Murray is better on grass than hard, don't think that's really up fo debate. And there were absoloutely no excuses on that day. No injuries, and he wasn't tired. So yes, that match, and the past 5 wins in a row would play a role in the outcome if they played next month.
 
I'm really having a hard time understanding why Federer winning Cincy would have such a big impact on the odds. Again, it's remarkable how shorts peoples' (or more specifically, the betting markets') memories are. Federer won Cincy in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2014 but failed to win the USO all of those years. Cincy is moderately faster and only best-of-3, both factors which make it much more favourable for him. In addition, Federer took the previous week off while both Djokovic and Murray went the distance last week in Canada, so victories against those 2 here really wouldn't indicate a whole lot about his USO chances.

Actually, it's interesting looking at his historic results, because he only won Cincy 2 out of the 5 years he ended up winning the USO, but (as noted above) has won Cincy in 4 of the 6 years since his last USO win. So in other words, winning Cincy seems to be almost negatively correlated with his chances of winning the USO.
 
CDNguy87 said:
I'm really having a hard time understanding why Federer winning Cincy would have such a big impact on the odds.
Click to expand...

Confidence, but most importantly, winning Cincy makes him the #2 seed which means there is a 50% chance Murray plays Novak in the semis. No matter who wins that game, it's likely they will enter the finals (if Fed makes it there) tired, greatly increasing Federer's chance of winning.

I think this Cincy final and the #2 seed is huge for Federer.
 
Vrad said:
Confidence, but most importantly, winning Cincy makes him the #2 seed which means there is a 50% chance Murray plays Novak in the semis. No matter who wins that game, it's likely they will enter the finals (if Fed makes it there) tired, greatly increasing Federer's chance of winning.

I think this Cincy final and the #2 seed is huge for Federer.
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Ok I can see how the #2 seed would be an advantage all things being equal, but he's shown he's more than capable of losing to players not named Djokovic or Murray at the USO (see 2012, 2013, 2014). But I really don't buy the confidence thing at all, he's not a "confidence"-dependent player in the way Nadal is. The "confidence" of winning Cincy didn't seem to help him much in those 4 years since '08 he won there but not at the USO. Based on his historical record, winning Cincy seems to give far more confidence to his fanboys than it does to him.
 
CDNguy87 said:
Ok I can see how the #2 seed would be an advantage all things being equal, but he's shown he's more than capable of losing to players not named Djokovic or Murray at the USO (see 2012, 2013, 2014). But I really don't buy the confidence thing at all, he's not a "confidence"-dependent player in the way Nadal is. The "confidence" of winning Cincy didn't seem to help him much in those 4 years since '08 he won there but not at the USO. Based on his historical record, winning Cincy seems to give far more confidence to his fanboys than it does to him.
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The fact that he's more than capable of losing to other players affects his chances whether he is #2 seed or #3 seed equally, so it is irrelevant as far as comparing his odds after winning or losing Cincy.

Confidence was a throwaway point, and personally I don't put much in it, but the betting public will. The seed is why Cincy is really affecting his odds.
 
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Vrad said:
The fact that he's more than capable of losing to other players affects his chances whether he is #2 seed or #3 seed equally, so it is irrelevant as far as comparing his odds after winning or losing Cincy.

Confidence was a throwaway point, and personally I don't put much in it, but the betting public will. The seed is why Cincy is really affecting his odds.
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Can't really disagree with that, but if your logic holds, then if Federer gets the #2 seed but ends up drawn in Murray's half, his odds should revert more or less to what they were before yesterday (since getting drawn in Murray's half would completely negate the advantage of being the #2 seed).
 
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After living in Nevada for 15 years I know how the book works. Look for Fed to be 4/1 after today for US Open, and odds getting "worse" after that. Book it. As of right now, he's 6.5/1 in Nevada.
 
TahoeTennis said:
After living in Nevada for 15 years I know how the book works. Look for Fed to be 4/1 after today for US Open, and odds getting "worse" after that. Book it. As of right now, he's 6.5/1 in Nevada.
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Probably right. People/the betting market will read far too much into his Cincy victory after today, but then when a few more days pass and people have time to thoroughly consider the factors I've mentioned in the last few posts, I'd expect a bit of a correction.
 
CDNguy87 said:
Can't really disagree with that, but if your logic holds, then if Federer gets the #2 seed but ends up drawn in Murray's half, his odds should revert more or less to what they were before yesterday (since getting drawn in Murray's half would completely negate the advantage of being the #2 seed).
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Agreed. If this theory is right then if Murray falls on Federer's side, Fed's odds should drop and vice versa if Djokovic has to face Murray.

That being said, when the schedule is out this effect will not be completely clear because it may be masked by where Nadal, Stan, Cilic, etc. fall in the draw as well.
 
tennis_pro said:
Where did you find such odds?

I see Federer at 6/1 and Nadal at 14/1 (behind Wawrinka and Nishikori, both at 12/1). Murray at 3/1, Djokovic at 6/5
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I think Federer looks mispriced versus Murray. Murray has to go through both of them and there is a chance Fed will only meet Djok or Muzz in the final.
 
Vrad said:
Agreed. If this theory is right then if Murray falls on Federer's side, Fed's odds should drop and vice versa if Djokovic has to face Murray.

That being said, when the schedule is out this effect will not be completely clear because it may be masked by where Nadal, Stan, Cilic, etc. fall in the draw as well.
Click to expand...

So Federer is indeed drawn on Murray's side, which makes him moving up from the #3 to the #2 seed inconsequential. Let's see what happens with the odds now.
 
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