Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic Wimbledon FINAL

Who will win the final?

  • Nadal in 3

    Votes: 12 5.3%
  • Nadal in 4

    Votes: 52 22.9%
  • Nadal in 5

    Votes: 34 15.0%
  • Djokovic in 3

    Votes: 20 8.8%
  • Djokovic in 4

    Votes: 74 32.6%
  • Djokovic in 5

    Votes: 29 12.8%
  • Someone will quit

    Votes: 6 2.6%

  • Total voters
    227
  • Poll closed .

Hood_Man

Legend
I'v got Novak in 5, but it might not go to 5. Murray really piled on the pressure today in the first set, and it paid off at 6-5 when Nadal got nervous and allowed Murray to gain an opening.

As we've seen on the clay this year, Djokovic can do that to Nadal, but unlike Murray he won't let one missed forehand derail his entire game.

We also saw on the hard courts though, that when Nadal piles on the pressure Novak can keep it together and ride it out.

And Nadal's forehand won't break down Novak's backhand.

The big thing in Nadal's favour is that this is a Best of 5 grand slam final. Nadal has won 10 of these things, Novak 2. Novak also hasn't beaten Nadal in a Major before, in 5 attempts.

The way Djokovic has played this year however, I'm not sure how relevant a statistic like that will be on Sunday. After all, Djokovic had never beaten Nadal in any final, and this year he's done it 4 times.
 

tlm

G.O.A.T.
The rafa i saw today looked close to the same as he did at uso last year, he was crushing both his forehand +backhand. Joker is going to have to dig deep to beat rafa on sunday.
 

Sid_Vicious

G.O.A.T.
The rafa i saw today looked close to the same as he did at uso last year, he was crushing both his forehand +backhand. Joker is going to have to dig deep to beat rafa on sunday.
What is really impressive (and scary) about Rafa's game is that he is taking massive cuts at the ball and still maintaining a huge margin of error. Usually, playing more agressive means making more unforced errors, but apparently this rule does not apply to Nadal.
 

bolo

G.O.A.T.
Theres something about Djokovic's serve that doesn't work on grass that I can't put my finger on.
He is serving well but has his motion changed from 2007 and 2008? Especially the backbend. I get the impression he is much more upright these days and quicker in between the toss and making contact with the ball compared to then.
 

DragonBlaze

Hall of Fame
I think final will actually be competitive. Very hard for me to predict the winner here which hasn't been the case over the last 6 majors.

Still I have a feeling it will be Rafa with Slam no. 11 come Sunday (evening hopefully after a long hard battle).
 

OneMoreShot

Rookie
Why are Nadal fans so confident Nadal is going to win? He hasn't beat him all year and lost convincingly twice on his favorite surface? Just curious where does the confidence come from?
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
Why are Nadal fans so confident Nadal is going to win? He hasn't beat him all year and lost convincingly twice on his favorite surface? Just curious where does the confidence come from?
LOL. No "REASONABLE" Nadal fan is expecting him to win. They are hoping (perhaps against hope) for Nadal to prevail.

Sure Nadal is the heavy underdog, but it's not like he has no chance. I mean they're playing the match right. And if Roddick can take Fed to 5 sets in a Wimb final, anything can happen on the day...
 
Can't say I really care who wins this one, but this match is definitely shaping up to be a good one. Expect this match to be 6 hours if it goes to five sets, there shall be copious amounts of ball bouncing and butt picking on Sunday. Lookin' forward to it.
 

Mustard

Talk Tennis Guru
Why are Nadal fans so confident Nadal is going to win? He hasn't beat him all year and lost convincingly twice on his favorite surface? Just curious where does the confidence come from?
This is a major final, and Nadal has always, to date, brought his best game to a major final, or as well as he needs to play. Only prime Federer at Wimbledon has beaten him in a major final. Nadal is also 5-0 against Djokovic in slams. Also, when Nadal beat Djokovic in the 2010 US Open final, Djokovic had won their previous 3 matches without the loss of a set, yet Nadal still won that 2010 US Open final. Why should the 4 losses this year be any different, especially when Nadal could have easily won 2 of those 4 matches?
 

Semi-Pro

Hall of Fame
It will be interesting to see what tactics Nadal employs against this new and rejuvenated 2011 Djokovic...so far he has yet to crack the riddle.
 

GOAT BAAH!!!

Professional
It will be interesting to see what tactics Nadal employs against this new and rejuvenated 2011 Djokovic...so far he has yet to crack the riddle.
I think if he has a high 1st serve pct. and has more confidence/pop on his backhand wing and doesn't run around every time to hit a forehand he will be in a good position to "crack the riddle".

I'd also like to see him take more cuts on a Djoker 2nd serve and not simply block it back.
 

Backbored

Hall of Fame
I’m thinking Rafa in five. That first set is going to be so important for Novak. If Novak wins the first set, look out. It may be a short trip for Rafa. If Rafa wins the first set, I’m thinking it will be a long fought slow grinding close to the end.
 

Semi-Pro

Hall of Fame
I think if he has a high 1st serve pct. and has more confidence/pop on his backhand wing and doesn't run around every time to hit a forehand he will be in a good position to "crack the riddle".

I'd also like to see him take more cuts on a Djoker 2nd serve and not simply block it back.
Yes, but he has to make sure they are effective 1st serves, spinning them in just to get a high percentage would be pointless as Djokovic would just pounce on them. It will be interesting to see if he is willing to sacrifice pace for a higher percentage, vice versa.

With regards to the backhand, I was watching a replay of the rome match this year and noticed Nadal try to use variety against Djokovic (inject pace, moonball, ect) however none of that was really working. Perhaps, he should throw some slice in there on Sunday, thing is however, Nadals slice isn't really that great so we will see.
 

GOAT BAAH!!!

Professional
Yes, but he has to make sure they are effective 1st serves, spinning them in just to get a high percentage would be pointless as Djokovic would just pounce on them. It will be interesting to see if he is willing to sacrifice pace for a higher percentage, vice versa.

With regards to the backhand, I was watching a replay of the rome match this year and noticed Nadal try to use variety against Djokovic (inject pace, moonball, ect) however none of that was really working. Perhaps, he should throw some slice in there on Sunday, thing is however, Nadals slice isn't really that great so we will see.
Definitely agree about dialing in the serve no no...but with Djoker you will have to pick your battles and Rafa knows that Nole the best returner in the game now and will have to be ready to have these serves returned at his feet.

I also like the slice to Djoker's forehand but with respect to Nadal's backhand I think Noel knows that Rafa seldom goes DTL with it and that predictability allows Novak to cover the cross court...

Rafa's going to have to bring out his USO 2010 beast mode

Either way it's going to be a tough one and Tio Toni is no doubt checking the tapes for anything to expose...
 

aceX

Hall of Fame
Nadal had the tougher semi. Tsonga was playing poorly and it was still a close match.

For that reason I'm picking Nadal.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
how is that the least likely outcome?? Nadal wins 6-0 6-0 6-0 is probably the least likely outcome.
Either man winning straight sets is very unlikely. For Nadal, even more so because Novak beat Nadal in straights twice this yr.

BTW the set of outcomes is in terms of sets (i.e in Nadal/Djoker in 3, 4 or 5) and not in terms of score for each set.

Hopefully, Nadal is watching the tapes of his match against Delpo, that's the heat he needs to bring on Sunday..
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
I also like the slice to Djoker's forehand but with respect to Nadal's backhand I think Noel knows that Rafa seldom goes DTL with it and that predictability allows Novak to cover the cross court...

Rafa's going to have to bring out his USO 2010 beast mode

Either way it's going to be a tough one and Tio Toni is no doubt checking the tapes for anything to expose...
Good post. The unique thing about Novak is his ability to hit up the line. So whenever Nadal gets into a standard cross court exchange (backhand to forehand or forehand to backhand), Novak often hits DTL in the open court. (unlike Murray who will almost always hit cross court using his forehand.).

This stops Nadal from camping in his backhand corner, his preferred position . Nadal has to come to the middle of the court, and Djokovic then attacks Nadal's backhand.

I think the slice will be crucial for Nadal. If he can keep it low, especially to Djokovic's forehand, it should be effective. Fed used the tactic excellently in RG. But Rafael has to hit it well - because if he doesn't, it just sits up, which is a recipe for losing control of the pt.
 

ViscaB

Hall of Fame
I’m thinking Rafa in five. That first set is going to be so important for Novak. If Novak wins the first set, look out. It may be a short trip for Rafa. If Rafa wins the first set, I’m thinking it will be a long fought slow grinding close to the end.
Statistically Nadal will almost certainly win the match if he wins the first set...
 

Bartelby

Bionic Poster
Very good observation. His fast, 'flat balls' still have ungodly spin and this seems to be what aspiring players need to take from Nadal's success. Federer has this capacity, but not to the same extent.


What is really impressive (and scary) about Rafa's game is that he is taking massive cuts at the ball and still maintaining a huge margin of error. Usually, playing more agressive means making more unforced errors, but apparently this rule does not apply to Nadal.
 

Semi-Pro

Hall of Fame
Statistically Nadal will almost certainly win the match if he wins the first set...
Ya, and Federer had a 12/2 win-loss ratio in GS finals from 2003-2007, it is now 16/7. Don't read much into statistics, anything can happen.
 

tlm

G.O.A.T.
LOL. No "REASONABLE" Nadal fan is expecting him to win. They are hoping (perhaps against hope) for Nadal to prevail.

Sure Nadal is the heavy underdog, but it's not like he has no chance. I mean they're playing the match right. And if Roddick can take Fed to 5 sets in a Wimb final, anything can happen on the day...
There is no hoping here, the rafa fans are expecting him to win, because they know he is a true champion that comes through when it counts. This is something joker still has to prove that he can do consistently in majors when the real pressure is on.
 

Fedace

Banned
GENIUS at work

I already bet a HUGE parlay for Nadal to win it all and Kvitova to win it all.
Mistake dude. Novak will win this one for the first time. He is playing better than Nadal right now. and Grass doesn't favor any one player. Trust the GENIUS like myself. I know what i am talking about.
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
Nadal in 5 close sets. I see two, maybe three tiebreaks. I'm already looking forward to buying the DVD.

Will be rooting for Djoker actually but fear that he has too much emotional instability to deal with Nadal over 5 sets.

Grass may actually be Nadal's best surface now.
 

tlm

G.O.A.T.
Mistake dude. Novak will win this one for the first time. He is playing better than Nadal right now. and Grass doesn't favor any one player. Trust the GENIUS like myself. I know what i am talking about.
Okay genius if you are so positive i would suggest you bet every dollar you can then, because that would be guaranteed money. By the way how much are you putting on this match?
 
T

TennisandMusic

Guest
Mistake dude. Novak will win this one for the first time. He is playing better than Nadal right now. and Grass doesn't favor any one player. Trust the GENIUS like myself. I know what i am talking about.
We should play at Balboa sometime. You down?
 

fednad

Hall of Fame
Complete bs. Nadal is not a mental midget like your dear Fed. He will not give in. It's like you've watched Nadal for years and you still don't understand how strong he is mentally. What can I say? Good luck with your theory, I wouldn't bet 1 cent on it.
Watch him turn into a Giant midget now - oxymoron there but hope you will get it.
The only way he can get out of trouble here is to take MTO (Medical Time Out), hold his ankle, knee or some other body part and change the momentum.
I repeat - your boy was lucky to have Fed in the final.
And leave Fed aside. We will have a separate war on that later. This thread is about Nadsy and Djoker. Let us stick with the protagonists.
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2011/07/01/everyones-a-winner-at-wimbledon/

Nadal, in particular, has tailored his game perfectly for the lawns this year. He has committed errors on just 5% of points he’s played so far — never reaching 10% in any of his six matches — while hitting winners on 20% of them.

His opponent in the final, Novak Djokovic, has won 49 of his last 50 matches by playing high-margin, low-error tennis, but his stats aren’t quite as clean as Nadal’s at Wimbledon. Djokovic has won 16% of points he’s played with winners, while losing 8% with unforced errors.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
All those stats won't really matter in the end since tennis is a question of matchup (ie: Novak's stats could be average against x other players but still be brilliant vs Rafa because of the way the matchup operates).
 

TennisFan3

G.O.A.T.
All those stats won't really matter in the end since tennis is a question of matchup (ie: Novak's stats could be average against x other players but still be brilliant vs Rafa because of the way the matchup operates).
True. Novak has been raising the bar against Rafael. I never thought he would win in Rome after the exhausting 3 setter the night before against Murray.

On Sunday, Nadal needs to bring his Delpo 4th round game and lots of fire in his belly. Needs to play the match on his own terms instead of getting pushed back by the Djoker, which is what has happened this year.
 
I appreciate the very matter of fact WSJ article and its heavy use of statisctics. But, in the words of John Facenta,
"Predictions are empty yardsticks when to are alone on the field of battle."

Vamos Rafa.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
True. Novak has been raising the bar against Rafael. I never thought he would win in Rome after the exhausting 3 setter the night before against Murray.
so was it your alter ego which posted this ?

( that thread is locked, so I can't quote )

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=380065&page=3

In some ways when you play such a long match the day before you actually have nothing to lose and swing even more freely.

I expect Djokovic to come out firing, to be more aggressive and shorten points. He could get the first set.

What is good for Djokovic is that he would think of himself as an underdog. And as he showed in Madrid he has an excellent game plan against Nadal, which involves stretching Nadal wide and then attacking his backhand hitting up the line.

If anything Djokovic is playing better than he was in Madrid. Still today's match SURELY took a lot out of him. But even then Djokvic won't give up without a fight -he's in the confidence zone right now. And for Nadal the way he's played in Rome so far won't suffice against the Djoker, so that Spaniard will need to lift his game.

I expect Djokovic to win the 1st set, but Nadal to wear him down eventually and win in 3.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic somehow won - the guy is on a amazing confidence boost, it's hard to lose when you've forgotten how to for 6 months!
 

Slice&Smash

Semi-Pro
Complete bs. Nadal is not a mental midget like your dear Fed. He will not give in. It's like you've watched Nadal for years and you still don't understand how strong he is mentally. What can I say? Good luck with your theory, I wouldn't bet 1 cent on it.
I honestly believe Nadal mental strength is overrated.

Every single champion has steel mentality during their prime. That is how they become champions after all. winning breeds confidence and destroys your opponents before they enter the court.

Yet despite his reputation, Nadal has shown at certain times during his career that his mental strength is suspect:

1- It took him almost 1 full year to recover from that RG loss by Soderling. Some will disagree and say it was physical, but it's clear that loss affected him mentally and he lost to every single top 10 player for a very long time.

2- Nadal has never before been in a situation where he is regularly losing to an upcoming and younger guy (Djoko 2011). After his Rome loss, he was already talking about his long career on tour and how it affects him. In Madrid and Rome, Nadal was firing on all cylinders, body language was positive and intimidating, yet Djokovic still battled through and won in straight sets.

3- All those excuses when he loses are mind games used to restore his own confidence ("say a lie enough times and you will believe it") and to his competitors ("I'm still unbeatable, this is a one time loss only"). However, no such excuses will work when you lose to the same guy 4 or 5 finals in a row.

If Nadal loses this Wimbledon final, I would say there is a possibility of Borg scenario where he takes a long break to recover from "physical" problems.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Novak is clearly a MASSIVE underdog in this one, the Serb has close to ZERO chance of beating an inspired Nadal who is playing his best tennis ever by a good margin. However given that Novak is such a nice and extremely humble guy we will all root for him to perform a miracle and somehow win his 1st Wimbledon title.
 
Top