1. Zverev -- The man is a seriously fascinating case. Top 3 or 4 best player in the world over best of 3 sets, with not quite big 4 like consistency, but something not entirely far off. Yet over best of 5? I mean his issue is not physical, he's worked his butt off with Jez Green in that regard, and he doesn't have an issue with crumbling mentally on big stages, he's beaten the biggest players in the world for titles.
But why the hell can he not play best of 5 set tennis to even top 10 standard? If he can get over that hump he's easily number 1 on this list. If he can't he's probably going to get overtaken by a bunch of these guys. Still, he's accomplished more at this stage of his career than anyone else has at such an age since certainly Murray and Djokovic, so he's still comfortably number 1.
2. Tsitsipas -- Between the Rogers Cup and Australian Open runs he has to be number two. Can do that shocking thing guys of this generation seemingly can't of getting to net, he can play over best of 5, he doesn't seem scared or over awed by the biggest stages and opponents(ish).
A lot of those break points with Fed in Australia he saved in damn fine style, the way he held his nerve in that match was bad ass. The fact that he actually backed it up in the next round was arguably even more impressive instead of just being satisfied and fading away.
3. Coric -- He seems to have been around for years, I'm not sure why he hasn't stepped up in any consistently meaningful way yet. He gets compared to Novak, but where's the consistency? Beats Federer in Halle one day, and what happens the next? I remember how cool it was when he outclassed Sascha in New York 2 years ago, and then BAM, folds to Big Kev.
He's had a couple of pretty decent results at the last 2 majors with losses to finalist/semi finalists, and he still has a couple of years to improve, and he has the sort of style and game I feel might only be helped by further experience, but jeez. Get it together already, it's not like you're just breaking on the scene. He's way too up and down.
4. Kyrgios -- Headcase who needs to develop consistency and a sort of moderate level he can rely on when he isn't in his blazingly inspired form. Physically unconvincing too. Has probably displayed the highest level out of all these guys on a more than one off basis, but he doesn't REALLY seem like he's interested in being a multi time slam champion.
He seems more a Monfils type who turns up with inspired magic now and then but doesn't have the work ethic and desire to put him over the top to the level he's probably closer to than anyone else here. Day in and day out guy who loves the lifestyle the game affords him and having fun more than winning.
5. Shapovalov -- Ah, the disappointment! The autumn of 2017 with his Rogers Cup and US Open runs really, really, really did make you think the game was saved, but like Kyrgios the dude needs to develop a base level to get him through the day to day when he's not on fire. Roger Federer didn't get where he is because of all the genius creativity, he got there because he could hold serve against god and rally for 5 hours with Nadal.
He's still doing well enough that he is climbing rather than tumbling down the rankings, but has he had one defining, killer win since USO17? I can't recall anything. The set he just took of Novak in Australia was more on Djokovic than him.
6. FAA -- I have not seen enough of him yet to really be able to judge in any meaningful way, but he's so young that there's no reason to be anything but hopeful for him.
7. Thiem -- Promise? He's going to be 26 this year, and all he has to show for it is one spectacular failure of a Roland Garros final. He's beaten Nadal the last two clay seasons, and crumbled embarrassingly before tournaments end. These are supposed to be the best years of a players career.
I suppose he could be like some of these lost gen guys and play his best tennis closer to 30, but... that's not really promise, that's the fanning of dying embers. He's the only one here with a major final to his name, sure, but he doesn't seem to be displaying any discernible improvement.
8. Tiafoe -- The quarter final run in Melbourne just now is nice, taking Federer 5 in New York was pretty cool, but he's done nothing else of genuine note even though like Coric he's been around a few years now.
Hopefully this is his year to make the big step up, but until we see it there's no reason to believe, and I have a hard time seeing anyone with that whack forehand going very far very often.
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Lotsa love to Khachanov and Medvedev, who I might well slot in at about 3 and 4 on this list, and de Minaur who I'd probably have either just ahead or just behind Felix.
