Rank top 5 French Open Contenders

#51
This. No way I would put him over Fed who has the #1 player in the world form and a highly underatted history at the French Open. 5 French Open finals and another SF's ended by Nadal. The way Nadal and Djokovic have looked the last couple months or with Nadals injury questions I'm not sure Fed wouldn't be a co-favorite with them if Nadal is losing to guys like near 32 year old Fogini now on clay.
I'll still take an injured Nadal and off-his-game Novak as a healthy favorite above Federer, who hasn't even played this event in 4 years.

Roger's still 37 and loses to the likes of Kokkinakis, Coric and Millman on hard/grass. Anyone can beat him on clay. It won't take a zoning opponent like Fognini.
 
#53
Way too early to tell. We’ve literally only had one week of clay tennis. At this point I’m sticking with who has proved themselves able to go deep in previous years.

1. Nadal
2. Djokovic
3. Federer
4. Thiem
5. Zverev

Fognini had a nice week but he is one of the absolute last people I would pick to have the mental strength needed to win a slam.
 
#55
LOL at putting Federer who is 37 years old, has 1 RG and is 0-5 against Nadal at RG, as the first favorite to win RG over Nadal who has 11 RG and is 5 years younger than Federer.

Fognini is a worst matchup on clay for Nadal than Federer. Fognini's two-handed backhand is far more difficult to attack for Nadal than Federer's one-handed backhand.
You will be surprised.
 

duaneeo

Hall of Fame
#56
I don't see Nadal nor Djokovic winning Roland Garros. Watching Rafa at Monte Carlo reminded me of watching Rafa on clay in 2015. I think Djokovic is mentally frayed and will be a jungle of nerves trying to win 2X4 and another NCYGS. So with that preface, my top-contender list:

1. Zverev - Sticking with my long-made prediction.

2. Thiem - After winning his first big title at IW, maybe it'll give him the mental boost to do more than just making the RG final.

3. Federer - No one is better at proving the doubters wrong. The general consensus at 2017 AO was that old-returning-from-injury Roger couldn't win 7 BO5 matches and couldn't survive 5-setters.

4. Someone totally unexpected/out of the top-10 or 20 (but not Fognini).

5. Nadal or Djokovic - Simply because they can never be counted out.
 
#57
I'll still take an injured Nadal and off-his-game Novak as a healthy favorite above Federer, who hasn't even played this event in 4 years.

Roger's still 37 and loses to the likes of Kokkinakis, Coric and Millman on hard/grass. Anyone can beat him on clay. It won't take a zoning opponent like Fognini.
Everyone contending seems to be old in Tennis. Fognini will be 32 in less than a month and he relies on his athleticism as much if not more than anyone. Being old doesn't seem very damning at this point to me not when you look around tennis. Nadal is pushing 33 and seemingly breaking down more if anything.

With Roger's experience getting back on clay is probably like riding a bike for him probably. One tourny warm up and I expect that is a non issue. One of the perks of being old I guess. He's not going to have the heat working against him like at the US Open vs Millman who everyone likes to fall back too. A former training partner, buddy type who also knew his game and didn't fear him like some average journyman would.

Fed's record at the french open is actually pretty stellar and underrated if anything. You combine that with #1 in the world form and a motivated again guy on clay and I think you sleep on him at your own parallels. He may not be the favorite but he's not far down the list, certainly not past 3 or 4 for me and I don't see as huge a gap right now even on clay with Nadal or Djokovic at their current form and questions. I'd also put Theim right in that mix with those three and then everyone else.
 
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#58
Everyone contending seems to be old in Tennis. Fognini will be 32 in less than a month and he relies on his athleticism as much if not more than anyone. Being old doesn't seem very damning at this point to me not when you look around tennis. Nadal is pushing 33 and seemingly breaking down more if anything.

With Roger's experience getting back on clay is probably like riding a bike for him probably. One tourny warm up and I expect that is a non issue. One of the perks of being old I guess. He's not going to have the heat working against him like at the US Open vs Millman who everyone likes to fall back too. A former training partner, buddy type who also knew his game and didn't fear him like some average journyman would.

Fed's record at the french open is actually pretty stellar and underrated if anything. You combine that with #1 in the world form and a motivated again guy on clay and I think you sleep on him at your own parallels. He may not be the favorite but he's not far down the list, certainly not past 3 or 4 for me and I don't see as huge a gap right now even on clay with Nadal or Djokovic. I'd also put Theim right in that mix with those three and then everyone else.
Clearly the field is trending older everywhere. But in terms of Roger in particular, I'm talking particularly about his chances on clay. So much about older Fed's recent 2017-19 success has been built around playing the right tournaments and allowing his re-worked style of play to flourish. His rally & return game skills have both declined a lot, and certainly his stamina has too. He relies primarily on his serve & quick 1-2 punch points to win matches, and that works mostly on fast courts. He's been trending this way for about 5 years now, and even 5 years ago he wasn't much of a threat to win the French. So I'm just trying to be realistic about his chances.

If he couldn't make the final in 2014 or 2015, he certainly isn't winning it in 2019. With his recent Australian & Wimbledon victories, the writing was on the wall with them. He'd still been doing great on hard & grass courts before his 2016 injury. So it was just a matter of getting healthy and not having to deal with Novak. There are way more things that need to break right for him in Paris if he's to be a serious contender.
 
#59
I don't see Nadal nor Djokovic winning Roland Garros. Watching Rafa at Monte Carlo reminded me of watching Rafa on clay in 2015. I think Djokovic is mentally frayed and will be a jungle of nerves trying to win 2X4 and another NCYGS. So with that preface, my top-contender list:

1. Zverev - Sticking with my long-made prediction.

2. Thiem - After winning his first big title at IW, maybe it'll give him the mental boost to do more than just making the RG final.

3. Federer - No one is better at proving the doubters wrong. The general consensus at 2017 AO was that old-returning-from-injury Roger couldn't win 7 BO5 matches and couldn't survive 5-setters.

4. Someone totally unexpected/out of the top-10 or 20 (but not Fognini).

5. Nadal or Djokovic - Simply because they can never be counted out.
What is your drink of choice tonight? An 11 time champ and who has only lost two times at the tournament the 5th or 6th favorite? Zverev #1? LOL...just stahp.
 
#61
Clearly the field is trending older everywhere. But in terms of Roger in particular, I'm talking particularly about his chances on clay. So much about older Fed's recent 2017-19 success has been built around playing the right tournaments and allowing his re-worked style of play to flourish. His rally & return game skills have both declined a lot, and certainly his stamina has too. He relies primarily on his serve & quick 1-2 punch points to win matches, and that works mostly on fast courts. He's been trending this way for about 5 years now, and even 5 years ago he wasn't much of a threat to win the French. So I'm just trying to be realistic about his chances.

If he couldn't make the final in 2014 or 2015, he certainly isn't winning it in 2019. With his recent Australian & Wimbledon victories, the writing was on the wall with them. He'd still been doing great on hard & grass courts before his 2016 injury. So it was just a matter of getting healthy and not having to deal with Novak. There are way more things that need to break right for him in Paris if he's to be a serious contender.
All of what you say maybe true about the fast courts but I think the key really is Nadal and Djokovic both look vulnerable and I think clay is a surface you could see a nobody/specialist upset them. Prior to the Nadal run clay was a court you could have guys from no where win and they seem to not be at their best right now. I don't even think Roger necessarily has to go through either to win. If they go out and a Fognini or Medvedev types end up deep in the tourny no way I wouldn't go with the Fed all day every day at that point as the proven guy in the big moment and I just think that is as likely an outcome as either one of them just dominating their way to the finals at this point. You take Nadal out of the mix and Roger has 5 or 6 French Opens over the years and with number one form all it really would take is an upset or two or maybe even a retire or poor day like both Djokovic and Nadal have been having lately.
 
#62
All of what you say maybe true about the fast courts but I think the key really is Nadal and Djokovic both look vulnerable and I think clay is a surface you could see a nobody/specialist upset them. Prior to the Nadal run clay was a court you could have guys from no where win and they seem to not be at their best right now. I don't even think Roger necessarily has to go through either to win. If they go out and a Fognini or Medvedev types end up deep in the tourny no way I wouldn't go with the Fed all day every day at that point as the proven guy in the big moment and I just think that is as likely an outcome as either one of them just dominating their way to the finals at this point.
You're right that he might not have to go through either of them to win.

The part that concerns me is that Novak & Rafa could've both lost first round at each of the last 3 slams and it would've made zero impact on Roger's chances, because he's not putting himself in a position to win. It would be a (shockingly pleasant) if that changed at Roland Garros of all places and he finds himself in the SF or F.
 
#63
You're right that he might not have to go through either of them to win.

The part that concerns me is that Novak & Rafa could've both lost first round at each of the last 3 slams and it would've made zero impact on Roger's chances, because he's not putting himself in a position to win. It would be a (shockingly pleasant) if that changed at Roland Garros of all places and he finds himself in the SF or F.
Just looking at the last time he did play in the FO 2015 he lost to the eventual champ Wawrinka in the QF's. Hard to really fault him for that IMO. Anytime you get knocked out by the eventual champ it's lesser of a loss and he's been beat by the eventual champ deep in the tourny almost all of his compeditive years it seems. It seems like a quality loss and showing in the aggregate and I just don't see the strenght of the field being the same today or really his game being a ton diminished either. Maybe some but the field seems to comeback to him just as much if not more. Certainly guys like Wrawrinka and Murrary who were real big time 2nd tier threats major champs I just don't see those sorts of ancillary figures in his way as well. It's just not a scary field right now.
 
#64
I find it funny that we make fun of Zverev not doing things at slams and is poor form of late but see no problem putting him as favorite or one of the favorites.

Nadal loses one match... one, and he is a scrub? Zverev and Thiem lose all the time and they are favorites? Don't get it.
 

duaneeo

Hall of Fame
#65
Nadal loses one match... one, and he is a scrub? Zverev and Thiem lose all the time and they are favorites? Don't get it.
99% of the thread is picking Nadal as the top favorite, so leave the 1% picking Zverev alone. And, picking soon-to-be-32-year-old Fognini (who has 1 Masters and 1 RG QF) as a favorite is way more "don't get it" than picking Zverev. ;)
 
#66
Just looking at the last time he did play in the FO 2015 he lost to the eventual champ Wawrinka in the QF's. Hard to really fault him for that IMO. Anytime you get knocked out by the eventual champ it's lesser of a loss and he's been beat by the eventual champ deep in the tourny almost all of his compeditive years it seems. It seems like a quality loss and showing in the aggregate and I just don't see the strenght of the field being the same today or really his game being a ton diminished either. Maybe some but the field seems to comeback to him just as much if not more. Certainly guys like Wrawrinka and Murrary who were real big time 2nd tier threats major champs I just don't see those sorts of ancillary figures in his way as well. It's just not a scary field right now.
The clay field is better than when Roger last played RG in terms of depth imo. Nadal is better than he was when Roger last played RG. Djokovic marginally worse but current day Nole is still a force on Bo5 clay. Adding to that, I haven't seen anything from Roger in a long time to indicate he can still hang with Nole on any surface over Bo5, let alone clay.

Don't get me wrong, I bet Roger is still a very, very good clay player, but Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Djokovic, Nadal would all start as favourites against him at any stage up to QF. Maybe even Fognini. Any stage past the QF and Roger gains a massively important experience advantage which would no doubt help him against the guys with less experience in majors.
 
#67
I see some dark horses like Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Cilic, Coric, or Fognini making a deep appearance along with one random player.

Thiem could win if Nadal or Djokovic goes out early. Zverev hasn't been playing a consistent level so far so chances are not looking good.
 
#68
The clay field is better than when Roger last played RG in terms of depth imo. Nadal is better than he was when Roger last played RG. Djokovic marginally worse but current day Nole is still a force on Bo5 clay. Adding to that, I haven't seen anything from Roger in a long time to indicate he can still hang with Nole on any surface over Bo5, let alone clay.

Don't get me wrong, I bet Roger is still a very, very good clay player, but Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Djokovic, Nadal would all start as favourites against him at any stage up to QF. Maybe even Fognini. Any stage past the QF and Roger gains a massively important experience advantage which would no doubt help him against the guys with less experience in majors.
I see some dark horses like Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Cilic, Coric, or Fognini making a deep appearance along with one random player.

Thiem could win if Nadal or Djokovic goes out early. Zverev hasn't been playing a consistent level so far so chances are not looking good.
Nadal, Djokovic
Federer , Theim
or
Someone lower who more clay specialist type like (Foginini, Swartzman type)

That's where I expect the winner to come from

I just don't see the field being stronger or really capable of winning in that upper middle tier guys like

Zverev, Anderson, Tsitispsipas, Del Potro, Isner, Khacanov, Medevdev, Radonic

or the top like Nadal being a strong either. In 2015 you still had to go through some 2nd tier All time greates like Murrary or even Wawrinkia to get through as well who were serious contenders on clay.
 
#71
I don't see Nadal nor Djokovic winning Roland Garros. Watching Rafa at Monte Carlo reminded me of watching Rafa on clay in 2015. I think Djokovic is mentally frayed and will be a jungle of nerves trying to win 2X4 and another NCYGS. So with that preface, my top-contender list:

1. Zverev - Sticking with my long-made prediction.

2. Thiem - After winning his first big title at IW, maybe it'll give him the mental boost to do more than just making the RG final.

3. Federer - No one is better at proving the doubters wrong. The general consensus at 2017 AO was that old-returning-from-injury Roger couldn't win 7 BO5 matches and couldn't survive 5-setters.

4. Someone totally unexpected/out of the top-10 or 20 (but not Fognini).

5. Nadal or Djokovic - Simply because they can never be counted out.
I love it. Bold predictions! I hope you're right!
 
#72
At this point, Thiem and Djokovic have the best chance besides the obvious person. Zverev you can almost take out of the picture now, not sure what's wrong with his game. If he can do well at Madrid or Rome and boost his confidence then perhaps but not looking good now.

Federer has a chance out of sheer presence, and Del Potro could win if his SF/F matches are against weaker opponent. Wawrinka is long shot.

Medvedev might disrupt the draw but going all the way perhaps unlikely. Coric and Tsitsipas might be disruptive as well.

RBA and Correno Busta along with other clay-court specialists will do well but won't be able to go against the big guys. Pouille and Kachanov might do well like the Spaniards but won't reach the QFs.
 
#73
1. Nadal
2. Thiem
3. Djokovic
4. Wawrinka
5. Tsitsipas

I really don’t get Roger’s inclusion. Personally,
I still have doubts he’ll even play RG, and feel he will really get exposed as a 38 yo on clay. Him winning it would be a real tennis miracle and this says a lot. He’ll do very very well to get to the QF, and anything beyond that is science fiction.

The even bigger laugh is Fog’s inclusion. This year he lost 1&4 to Bedene, 2&3 to Felix, 6&4 to Vesely and a close 3-setter to Munar all on clay - not really world beaters. It’s been 8 years since he first and last reached the 2nd week at any Slam. I also like the guy and his game, but that’s a huge knee jerk even for this forum. Fog is much more likely to lose in 2nd or 3rd round than even reach QF’s, let alone the F.
 

duaneeo

Hall of Fame
#74
Zverev you can almost take out of the picture now, not sure what's wrong with his game. If he can do well at Madrid or Rome and boost his confidence then perhaps but not looking good now.
The other side is that if he wins Madrid and/or Rome yet again, it'll only increase the pressure to win Roland Garros. I actually think it'll be best if he enters RG under the radar and with few thinking he can win (similar to how he entered the WTFs after a string of losses).
 
#75
The other side is that if he wins Madrid and/or Rome yet again, it'll only increase the pressure to win Roland Garros. I actually think it'll be best if he enters RG under the radar and with few thinking he can win (similar to how he entered the WTFs after a string of losses).
Yeah, definitely it would be sort of a blessing in disguise coming in having less pressure.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
#76
I don't see Nadal nor Djokovic winning Roland Garros. Watching Rafa at Monte Carlo reminded me of watching Rafa on clay in 2015. I think Djokovic is mentally frayed and will be a jungle of nerves trying to win 2X4 and another NCYGS. So with that preface, my top-contender list:

1. Zverev - Sticking with my long-made prediction.

2. Thiem - After winning his first big title at IW, maybe it'll give him the mental boost to do more than just making the RG final.

3. Federer - No one is better at proving the doubters wrong. The general consensus at 2017 AO was that old-returning-from-injury Roger couldn't win 7 BO5 matches and couldn't survive 5-setters.

4. Someone totally unexpected/out of the top-10 or 20 (but not Fognini).

5. Nadal or Djokovic - Simply because they can never be counted out.
You are desilusional,
Being a fanatic is one thing, but saying nonsense is another thing.
Federer has 0 chances to win RG.
At Wimbledon he is still one of the 4 favorites because the level on grass is very poor, so a tennis player with almost 38 years is still favorite in that tournament.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
#77
The other side is that if he wins Madrid and/or Rome yet again, it'll only increase the pressure to win Roland Garros. I actually think it'll be best if he enters RG under the radar and with few thinking he can win (similar to how he entered the WTFs after a string of losses).
Comparing the WTF with a Grand Slam is ridiculous, one is a one-week tournament with five matches to the best of 3 sets, it is the end of the season and indoor hard courts.
The other is a two-week tournament, seven matches at the best of 5 sets in outdoors clay and in the first half of the season.
It is nothing comparable, and the game of Zverev is fully exposed in the grand slams, where his monotonous game is not effective against the big players, in fact, the third category players like Kohlschreiber know the German Achilles' heel.
Zverev also has no chances in RG.
 
#78
You are desilusional,
Being a fanatic is one thing, but saying nonsense is another thing.
Federer has 0 chances to win RG.
At Wimbledon he is still one of the 4 favorites because the level on grass is very poor, so a tennis player with almost 38 years is still favorite in that tournament.
Incorrect

Level on grass >>>>>> Level on clay
 
#82
Comparing the WTF with a Grand Slam is ridiculous, one is a one-week tournament with five matches to the best of 3 sets, it is the end of the season and indoor hard courts.
The other is a two-week tournament, seven matches at the best of 5 sets in outdoors clay and in the first half of the season.
It is nothing comparable, and the game of Zverev is fully exposed in the grand slams, where his monotonous game is not effective against the big players, in fact, the third category players like Kohlschreiber know the German Achilles' heel.
Zverev also has no chances in RG.
I support Zverev but its hard to see him doing well at Roland Garros considering the physicality of playing on clay in Bo5 sets. Maybe this is a good time for Lendl to take a break from his team until he regains his form.
 
#84
I don't see Nadal nor Djokovic winning Roland Garros. Watching Rafa at Monte Carlo reminded me of watching Rafa on clay in 2015. I think Djokovic is mentally frayed and will be a jungle of nerves trying to win 2X4 and another NCYGS. So with that preface, my top-contender list:

1. Zverev - Sticking with my long-made prediction.

2. Thiem - After winning his first big title at IW, maybe it'll give him the mental boost to do more than just making the RG final.

3. Federer - No one is better at proving the doubters wrong. The general consensus at 2017 AO was that old-returning-from-injury Roger couldn't win 7 BO5 matches and couldn't survive 5-setters.

4. Someone totally unexpected/out of the top-10 or 20 (but not Fognini).

5. Nadal or Djokovic - Simply because they can never be counted out.
ROTFL nice April Fools joke. Or maybe you are that big an idiot.
1. Nadal
2. Thiem
3. Djokovic
4. Wawrinka
5. Tsitsipas

I really don’t get Roger’s inclusion. Personally,
I still have doubts he’ll even play RG, and feel he will really get exposed as a 38 yo on clay. Him winning it would be a real tennis miracle and this says a lot. He’ll do very very well to get to the QF, and anything beyond that is science fiction.

The even bigger laugh is Fog’s inclusion. This year he lost 1&4 to Bedene, 2&3 to Felix, 6&4 to Vesely and a close 3-setter to Munar all on clay - not really world beaters. It’s been 8 years since he first and last reached the 2nd week at any Slam. I also like the guy and his game, but that’s a huge knee jerk even for this forum. Fog is much more likely to lose in 2nd or 3rd round than even reach QF’s, let alone the F.
Yeah I am laughing at people putting Federer on their list maybe other than a token #5 or something only since there are basically no good clay courters today, especialy people putting him higher than Nadal or Djokovic.

Even funnier than that though is the person who had a super badly slumping Zverev who has done anything in a slam (just 1 quarter final where he got destroyed by Theim) ever at #1. Classic.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
#85
Wrong. I like many of their shows, but I'm not a fanatic of Desilu Productions.
Put Federer third in RG! and above Nadal and Djokovic only shows a level of ignorance or fanaticism.
Nothing more than that.
and I ask you again a question that you did not answer, did not you say that older players should not win grand slam, that young players should do it?
Your predilection for the Swiss says the opposite or does not that thought apply to him?
 
#87
Put Federer third in RG! and above Nadal and Djokovic only shows a level of ignorance or fanaticism.
Nothing more than that.
and I ask you again a question that you did not answer, did not you say that older players should not win grand slam, that young players should do it?
Your predilection for the Swiss says the opposite or does not that thought apply to him?
Putting Zverev 1st given his year and abysmal GS record is honestly even more ridiculous though. This guy is a loon.
 
#89
Fed is playing clay and the French. Likely for the last time.

If he is motivated and trains, would not be surprised to see Fed go deep in the French, especially if someone knocks off Nadal and/or Djok.

Fed is still a former French champion. Must respect that.

Never write off a champion that is feeling healthy and playing well.
Yeah I think some are going overboard on his chances, especialy when he struggled at RG 2013-2015 much younger than he is today. Still I give him more of a shot than say Zverev atleast.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
#90
Fed is playing clay and the French. Likely for the last time.

If he is motivated and trains, would not be surprised to see Fed go deep in the French, especially if someone knocks off Nadal and/or Djok.

Fed is still a former French champion. Must respect that.

Never write off a champion that is feeling healthy and playing well.
on clay he is done, especially in tournaments at the best of 5 sets.

27 years old.............................................................................................................................................................37 years old.
 
#91
Although I do not expect a huge showing from Fed at the French (maybe a respectable-ish on, like say the quarters), I would actually love to see it just for the amazement and amusement factor, and that is despite that I am not a Federer fan. Anything that gets people talking and surprised would be a good thing in this dead beat season we are currently having. In that sense cool erratic shotmaker and personality perennial dangerous floater Fognini winning Monte Carlo was nice, and the high piont of the season so far I guess.
 
#92
Although I do not expect a huge showing from Fed at the French (maybe a respectable-ish on, like say the quarters), I would actually love to see it just for the amazement and amusement factor, and that is despite that I am not a Federer fan. Anything that gets people talking and surprised would be a good thing in this dead beat season we are currently having. In that sense cool erratic shotmaker and personality perennial dangerous floater Fognini winning Monte Carlo was nice, and the high piont of the season so far I guess.
Everybody will be rooting for Fed. What a way to go out. With a French title.

Salzenstein says Fed is actually moving better at 37 then he was about 5 years ago. Granted a clay 5 setter is much more physical. But Fed is not the typical 37 y/o.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
#93
Although I do not expect a huge showing from Fed at the French (maybe a respectable-ish on, like say the quarters), I would actually love to see it just for the amazement and amusement factor, and that is despite that I am not a Federer fan. Anything that gets people talking and surprised would be a good thing in this dead beat season we are currently having. In that sense cool erratic shotmaker and personality perennial dangerous floater Fognini winning Monte Carlo was nice, and the high piont of the season so far I guess.
Only 2 tennis players could get to play the quarterfinals of RG being older than the Swiss:
Pancho Gonzales was a semifinalist with a little over 40 years and the Hungarian István Gulyás was a quarter-finalist with more than 39 years.
Moreover, reaching the semifinals with 33 years or more is extremely difficult.
Only Ken Rosewall got it twice where he was champion and finalist, Nikola Pilic who was a finalist, Andrés Gimeno who was champion and Gonzales himself, already mentioned.
Nadal will have it more difficult than ever but he can still get it.
 
#94
Only 2 tennis players could get to play the quarterfinals of RG being older than the Swiss:
Pancho Gonzales was a semifinalist with a little over 40 years and the Hungarian István Gulyás was a quarter-finalist with more than 39 years.
Moreover, reaching the semifinals with 33 years or more is extremely difficult.
Only Ken Rosewall got it twice where he was champion and finalist, Nikola Pilic who was a finalist, Andrés Gimeno who was champion and Gonzales himself, already mentioned.
Nadal will have it more difficult than ever but he can still get it.
Yeah I agree logically Federer should not do well at all. A quarter final still wouldnt surprise me though, and I expect atleast a round of 16, anything beyond the quarters is a bonus.

It is a difficult French Open to call since the 2 favorites (Nadal and Djokovic) are both poor at the moment, and it is a weak field. Some people are looking for their long awaited maiden slam like Thiem and I guess (although it would be a miracle right now) Zverev or Dmitriev. Wawrinka trying this comeback and if he is going to surprise anywhere it would be here, and Federer as the sentimental long shot. It will be interesting to follow regardless.

One thing to remember about the game is that the game is getting older than ever today, so age rules can all be thrown out the window, although I agree a nearly 40 year old Federer on his worst surface, he has not done anything on for years is a long shot at best. If the field were not so dire now, especialy on clay, I would say no shot, but the field has him having an outside shot of doing something.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
#96
Everybody will be rooting for Fed. What a way to go out. With a French title.

Salzenstein says Fed is actually moving better at 37 then he was about 5 years ago. Granted a clay 5 setter is much more physical. But Fed is not the typical 37 y/o.
That is laughable and a product of the moment.
The moment of truth will come from May to September, where reality will take effect and everything else will not matter.
 
#97
Federer's best shot this year will be Wimbledon by far. If nothing else, a 2nd week showing of some sort at RG could give him needed match play, momentum, and confidence for his shot at Wimbledon. As long as it doesnt end in a total smackdown by Nadal or Djokovic which could hurt him a match against them at Wimbledon (although even here that would mean he made an unlikely semi or final at RG, which could really bolster his confidence still).
 
#98
Federer's best shot this year will be Wimbledon by far. If nothing else, a 2nd week showing of some sort at RG could give him needed match play, momentum, and confidence for his shot at Wimbledon. As long as it doesnt end in a total smackdown by Nadal or Djokovic which could hurt him a match against them at Wimbledon (although even here that would mean he made an unlikely semi or final at RG, which could really bolster his confidence still).
I don't see anything at the French affecting Wimby. Hasn't played FO in years and still did well at Wimby.
Yes, he could get blown out at FO by Djok/Nadal but at this point of his career you have to believe he immediately puts it out of his mind for Wimby.
 
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I don't see anything at the French affecting Wimby. Hasn't played FO in years and still did well at Wimby.
Yes, he could get blown out at FO by Djok/Nadal but at this point of his career you have to believe he immediately puts it out of his mind for Wimby.
Well in 2008 the extremity of the blow out by Nadal at RG I think had an impact at Wimbledon. Then again Nadal nearly beat him in 2007, was improved, and Federer for various reasons (mono, finally left his absolute peak, etc...) was weaker in 2008 anyway, so maybe it had no difference and the 5 set loss was inevitable anyhow.

He beat Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2012 after losing to him easily at RG.
 
Well in 2008 the extremity of the blow out by Nadal at RG I think had an impact at Wimbledon. Then again Nadal nearly beat him in 2007, was improved, and Federer for various reasons (mono, finally left his absolute peak, etc...) was weaker in 2008 anyway, so maybe it had no difference and the 5 set loss was inevitable anyhow.

He beat Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2012 after losing to him easily at RG.
After 2008 one would think Fed could put a bad loss behind him straight away, as Nadal has had to do after this year's AO drubbing.
I don't think that AO match will have any bearing on RG, as these players can compartmentalise their games and move forward very easily.
 
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