James P
G.O.A.T.
Race for #1: Well documented at this point. Djokovic has a pretty major stranglehold on it. Medvedev has to get to the final without Djokovic making the final OR he needs to beat Djokovic in the final. Very tall order. Likelihood, near negligible.
Race for #3: With Nadal taking a break, his post-tournament ATP points will sit at 8,270. Three chasers behind him are in reach, Tsitsipas in #4 needs a QF to pass him. The other two, Thiem and Zverev, both need to make a final to pass Nadal, another very tall order. There is an absolute crazy-town permutation where Thiem and Zverev meet in the final, Tsitsipas reaches a QF/SF, where Nadal is bumped from #3 to #6. Likelihood of dropping to #4, moderate. Likelihood of dropping to #5 or #6, very low.
Tussling between #4-#7: Besides trying to catch Nadal, there's a lot of room for movement between Tsistipas, Thiem, Zverev, and Rublev, depending on results. Rublev could surprise and take #4 himself with the proper results, albeit highly unlikely. At the very least, he has a golden opportunity to close the gap between Zverev and himself. Zverev and Thiem, meanwhile, are a mere 120 points apart, so Thiem could plummet further. I suspect we'll see Tsitsipas move to #3, Nadal to #4, Zverev #5, Thiem #6, Rublev stays in #7.
Race for #8: Federer has been clinging onto the top 10 by the mercy of the Covid Rankings system, but he's starting to fade as things go to halfway normal. Due to his performance in London this past week, Berrettini will actually start this tournament ahead of Federer, once the points drop gets reflected live on opening Monday (4,378 to 4,215), meaning Berrettini need only match Federer's performance to pass him. Likelihood of Berrettini passing Federer, very high.
Race for #10: It's a big deal carrying the moniker "top 10 player" in your bio, I suppose, and RBA will be defending SF points from 2019, so #10 is also up in the air. Chase pack includes Schwartzman, Shapovalov, and PCB, all of which will have higher live rankings than RBA on the first Monday of Wimbledon. Probably a big reason RBA is down grinding in Mallorca at the moment, trying to stem the tide. It gets a lot hazier behind them, as we are dealing with a lot of young players that have limited grass experience. Anyone in the top 25 or so, outside of Goffin and Raonic (both out), could make some serious headway including all the way up to #10 with a significant result. Maybe it's a desire on my part, but I see Shapovalov having the best result of the #10-13 crowd and takes #10 again for the second time in his career. PCB #11, Schwartzman fades further to #12, RBA fading to #13 (or possibly worse).
Race for #3: With Nadal taking a break, his post-tournament ATP points will sit at 8,270. Three chasers behind him are in reach, Tsitsipas in #4 needs a QF to pass him. The other two, Thiem and Zverev, both need to make a final to pass Nadal, another very tall order. There is an absolute crazy-town permutation where Thiem and Zverev meet in the final, Tsitsipas reaches a QF/SF, where Nadal is bumped from #3 to #6. Likelihood of dropping to #4, moderate. Likelihood of dropping to #5 or #6, very low.
Tussling between #4-#7: Besides trying to catch Nadal, there's a lot of room for movement between Tsistipas, Thiem, Zverev, and Rublev, depending on results. Rublev could surprise and take #4 himself with the proper results, albeit highly unlikely. At the very least, he has a golden opportunity to close the gap between Zverev and himself. Zverev and Thiem, meanwhile, are a mere 120 points apart, so Thiem could plummet further. I suspect we'll see Tsitsipas move to #3, Nadal to #4, Zverev #5, Thiem #6, Rublev stays in #7.
Race for #8: Federer has been clinging onto the top 10 by the mercy of the Covid Rankings system, but he's starting to fade as things go to halfway normal. Due to his performance in London this past week, Berrettini will actually start this tournament ahead of Federer, once the points drop gets reflected live on opening Monday (4,378 to 4,215), meaning Berrettini need only match Federer's performance to pass him. Likelihood of Berrettini passing Federer, very high.
Race for #10: It's a big deal carrying the moniker "top 10 player" in your bio, I suppose, and RBA will be defending SF points from 2019, so #10 is also up in the air. Chase pack includes Schwartzman, Shapovalov, and PCB, all of which will have higher live rankings than RBA on the first Monday of Wimbledon. Probably a big reason RBA is down grinding in Mallorca at the moment, trying to stem the tide. It gets a lot hazier behind them, as we are dealing with a lot of young players that have limited grass experience. Anyone in the top 25 or so, outside of Goffin and Raonic (both out), could make some serious headway including all the way up to #10 with a significant result. Maybe it's a desire on my part, but I see Shapovalov having the best result of the #10-13 crowd and takes #10 again for the second time in his career. PCB #11, Schwartzman fades further to #12, RBA fading to #13 (or possibly worse).
