Rankings scenarios for YE#1 in 2014

underground

G.O.A.T.
Now before you start disputing the content of the following, please read the whole post carefully before commenting, I'm trying to put everything into one post comprehensively to clear any confusions:

Rankings and Race

The Rankings reflect the points gained by a player in the last 52 weeks. The Race reflects the points gained by a player since the start of the calendar year. In both cases, for the top players the rankings consist of the 4 slams, WTF (if applicable), the 8 mandatory 1000s, and 6 of the best remaining tournaments (MC/DC/500s/250s).

EXCEPTIONS to the rule:
- The WTF points from a previous year will be dropped in the rankings immediately after the conclusion of the last even before the current year's WTF.
- The points for the Davis Cup final in a previous year are counted in the current year's race. (If you don't believe me go and add up Djokovic's points right now)
- This means that by the time the WTF starts, the rankings and race will be equal to each other (so technically speaking, the race is from WTF to WTF).
- The RACE therefore consists of points from DC previous year right up to WTF current year, the whole purpose being to identify who is eligible for the WTF. The RACE is merely and very strong indicator of who is YE #1.
- After the WTF, you won't look at the race anymore, because the race starts again, instead the rankings will be used.

Update after Djokovic has won Paris:

Djokovic is now 1310 points ahead of Federer in the rankings. Take away the DC final points the effective gap is 1160 points.

With Federer having a maximum possibility of grabbing 1725 points by the end of the season, the following conditions for Djokovic would secure him YE #1:

- 3 RR wins in WTF
- Reaching the final of WTF regardless of RR result

If anybody has anything to add to this feel free to comment and I'll change this post accordingly.

Also I don't want people talking about whether Federer deserves #1 or not as 1. This thread is not created for such purpose. 2. I honestly couldn't care less about what you think of it.

That is all. Thank you.
 
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Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Solid post. One question, DC points.
When you look at their current rankings breakdown, Fed's got 310 from DC and Novak got's those 150. Fed's from this year, right? But Novak's from last year? And Fed can gain an additional 225 if he wins two single live rubbers and the Swiss team wins the DC?
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
Solid post. One question, DC points.
When you look at their current rankings breakdown, Fed's got 310 from DC and Novak got's those 150. Fed's from this year, right? But Novak's from last year? And Fed can gain an additional 225 if he wins two single live rubbers and the Swiss team wins the DC?
What happens is that DC points get replaced round by round as they are played. Djokovic's 150 are from the final against the Czech last year, all his early round points are deducted already. The race includes points gained from the DC final the previous and the points from DC this year excluding the final. It's a strange concept but the whole point of the race is for the WTF, and the DC final is inconveniently taking place after the WTF, hence this weird situation.

Each singles live rubber win in the DC final are worth 75 points. If a player wins 7 singles live rubbers overall in the whole DC and their country wins then there's an additional bonus 75 points. Federer has won 5 live ones this year (1 against Serbia, 2 each against Kazakhstan and Italy), so he needs 2 more to do so. If Switzerland goes 3-0 then Fed would only get 75 points.
 
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kOaMaster

Hall of Fame
Is the official YE#1 title given at
a) end of the WTF (without potential DC final points)
b) end of the year (including DC final points)
?
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
What happens is that DC points get replaced round by round as they are played. Djokovic's 150 are from the final against the Czech last year, all his early round points are deducted already. The race includes points gained from the DC final the previous and the points from DC this year excluding the final. It's a strange concept but the whole point of the race is for the WTF, and the DC final is inconveniently taking place after the WTF, hence this weird situation.

Each singles live rubber win in the DC final are worth 75 points. If a player wins 7 singles live rubbers overall in the whole DC and their country wins then there's an additional bonus 75 points. Federer has won 5 live ones this year (1 against Serbia, 2 each against Kazakhstan and Italy), so he needs 2 more to do so. If Switzerland goes 3-0 then Fed would only get 75 points. It also depends whether Fed plays the first reverse singles and the second one, as if Stan plays the 4th match and wins it for the Swiss 3-1 then the last one would be a dead rubber.
thanks for the explanation - and lovely sig!
 

illkhiboy

Hall of Fame
Is the official YE#1 title given at
a) end of the WTF (without potential DC final points)
b) end of the year (including DC final points)
?
Is there an "official" YE no. 1? It's just the player with the most points at the end, right? And that could be the guy who has the most points after DC.

But if there is an "official YE#1" then I have the same questions as you...
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
Is the official YE#1 title given at
a) end of the WTF (without potential DC final points)
b) end of the year (including DC final points)
?
I believe it will be given by the end of the year, since it is called year-end #1 after all. But this is a good point as it has rarely happened before I can't find anywhere that says explicitly when it is given.

thanks for the explanation - and lovely sig!
Thank you, my project 18 sig has been going on for some time and hopefully I can change it by the end of January next year ;)
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
What happens is that DC points get replaced round by round as they are played. Djokovic's 150 are from the final against the Czech last year, all his early round points are deducted already. The race includes points gained from the DC final the previous and the points from DC this year excluding the final. It's a strange concept but the whole point of the race is for the WTF, and the DC final is inconveniently taking place after the WTF, hence this weird situation.

Each singles live rubber win in the DC final are worth 75 points. If a player wins 7 singles live rubbers overall in the whole DC and their country wins then there's an additional bonus 75 points. Federer has won 5 live ones this year (1 against Serbia, 2 each against Kazakhstan and Italy), so he needs 2 more to do so. If Switzerland goes 3-0 then Fed would only get 75 points. It also depends whether Fed plays the first reverse singles and the second one, as if Stan plays the 4th match and wins it for the Swiss 3-1 then the last one would be a dead rubber.
Slight correction here--Federer is the Swiss #1 and the 4th rubber is automatically a match between both #1's. So, as long as no team wins 3-0, on the Sunday, Federer *will* play the first match (vs Tsonga) and Wawrinka will play the second one.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
With regards to Davis Cup, This may help. It would seem Year End #1 will include 2014 Davis Cup finals.
Thank you. That clears things up a lot.

does it means federer has chance to end up as no: 1 even he does not wins another title
Yes of course if Djokovic does abysmally in Paris and WTF then yes it is possible.

Slight correction here--Federer is the Swiss #1 and the 4th rubber is automatically a match between both #1's. So, as long as no team wins 3-0, on the Sunday, Federer *will* play the first match (vs Tsonga) and Wawrinka will play the second one.
That is always the case right?
 

merlinpinpin

Hall of Fame
That is always the case right?
Yes, the first singles (on the Friday) are #1 vs #2 in whichever order (gets a draw, probably), but on the Sunday, the 4th rubber is between the #1's and the 5th between the #2's (so you get more matches between the #1's, probably, as they are considered the high mark of the weekend... note that they don't always are). ;)

So, provided no team wins 3-0, Federer *will* get to play two live rubbers and have the chance to score 150 or 225 points.
 
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Fed881981

Hall of Fame
Federer can rise to #1 for 2 weeks and stretch his record at #1 to a minimum of 304 weeks IF:
- Federer wins Paris and Djokovic doesn't reach the final, OR;
- Federer loses in the final and Djokovic doesn't reach the QF.
As much as I wish this to be correct, it is not.

Tomorrow morning, Djokovic will have 11510 (before dropping any point from Paris) and Fed will have 9280 (after adding the points he gained from Basel and before dropping any points).

If Djoker loses in his first match in Paris, he will end the week with 11510+10-1000=10520.
If Fed wins Paris, he will have 9280+1000-360=9920.

Therefore, even in the best case scenario for Fed and the worst case scenario for Djokovic, Fed will NOT get to #1 after Paris.
 

Rhino

Legend
Why does Federer only appear to be at 8320 race points following Basel? OP says he should be at 8520.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
As much as I wish this to be correct, it is not.

Tomorrow morning, Djokovic will have 11510 (before dropping any point from Paris) and Fed will have 9280 (after adding the points he gained from Basel and before dropping any points).

If Djoker loses in his first match in Paris, he will end the week with 11510+10-1000=10520.
If Fed wins Paris, he will have 9280+1000-360=9920.

Therefore, even in the best case scenario for Fed and the worst case scenario for Djokovic, Fed will NOT get to #1 after Paris.
Did I not tell you to read my posts properly before disputing?

Now before you start disputing the content of the following, please read the whole post carefully before commenting

EXCEPTIONS to the rule:
- The WTF points from a previous year will be dropped in the rankings immediately after the conclusion of the last even before the current year's WTF.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
Why does Federer only appear to be at 8320 race points following Basel? OP says he should be at 8520.
The ATP website right now updates the race on a day-to-day basis, since the Valencia final just finished they haven't updated the scores yet.
 

smoledman

G.O.A.T.
I honestly think Roger will not play Paris. He must feel absolutely physically devastated after that 51min 'tour de force' of a final against David "The Beast" Goffin. :twisted:
 
The Rankings reflect the points gained by a player in the last 52 weeks. The Race reflects the points gained by a player since the start of the calendar year.

- The points for the Davis Cup final in a previous year are counted in the current year's race. (If you don't believe me go and add up Djokovic's points right now)
- This means that by the time the WTF starts, the rankings and race will be equal to each other (so technically speaking, the race is from WTF to WTF).



However as I mentioned above, the race includes the DC final points from last year. Meaning that you can knock off 150 points from Djokovic when it comes to calculating the YE #1.
The last paragraph contradicts the other paragraphs above. Points are dropped from the rankings every 52 weeks; however, points from a race cannot be dropped until after the race is completed. If Novak's points from last year's DC are being counted in the race right now, then they will not drop until after the race is over. In other words, anything Federer does in DC will be counted in the next year's race. I think the confusion comes in the term "Year End No.1". It's not a literal Dec. 31 No.1. The YE No.1 is the person with the most points after the WTF final. That is the last tournament in the race to No. 1.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
With regards to Davis Cup, This may help. It would seem Year End #1 will include 2014 Davis Cup finals.
The last paragraph contradicts the other paragraphs above. Points are dropped from the rankings every 52 weeks; however, points from a race cannot be dropped until after the race is completed. If Novak's points from last year's DC are being counted in the race right now, then they will not drop until after the race is over. In other words, anything Federer does in DC will be counted in the next year's race. I think the confusion comes in the term "Year End No.1". It's not a literal Dec. 31 No.1. The YE No.1 is the person with the most points after the WTF final. That is the last tournament in the race to No. 1.
I disagree. The race is a measure of who qualifies for the WTF,not determining the YE#1. YE#1 does not have direct relevance to the race, they are 2 separate things.

If you check a few posts ago there was a link to another thread that proves that YE#1 factors in the DC final in the current year not the previous one.

The reason why I said you could knock off 150 from Djokovic's race is because after the WTF the race points becomes the new rankings point, whereas the race will start at 0 again. Hence it was a legit move/calculation when doing the possible scenarios.

To make it clear (at least from current evidence this is what it seems to be):
- Race is *technically speaking* WTF to WTF
- YE#1 is points earned from Jan 1 to Dec 31. (Any tournaments starting on the last few days of December finishes in January where points are given so it doesn't affect anything)
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
If the points get close, they cannot award the year end #1 at O2.

I definitely see both Fed and Novak to have losses between WTF and Paris.
 
I disagree. The race is a measure of who qualifies for the WTF,not determining the YE#1. YE#1 does not have direct relevance to the race, they are 2 separate things.

If you check a few posts ago there was a link to another thread that proves that YE#1 factors in the DC final in the current year not the previous one.

The reason why I said you could knock off 150 from Djokovic's race is because after the WTF the race points becomes the new rankings point, whereas the race will start at 0 again. Hence it was a legit move/calculation when doing the possible scenarios.

To make it clear (at least from current evidence this is what it seems to be):
- Race is *technically speaking* WTF to WTF
- YE#1 is points earned from Jan 1 to Dec 31. (Any tournaments starting on the last few days of December finishes in January where points are given so it doesn't affect anything)
You may be correct, but I'm not convinced. I read the link posted earlier, and it was still unclear. The poster in that link seemed to agree with you, but the comment in that post seemed to disagree.

When is the Year End No.1 award given? If it's given prior to DC, then DC wouldn't count. The quote below is from Federer. It seems to imply that he wants to finish No.1 and THEN win DC.

"Right now I am focused to win the tournament of Basel, which for me is very important. After that, we will see what happens with the rest. At this point of the season my priority has to be considered to close the year as World No.1. The Davis Cup only will arrive at the very end of the season. When that moment will come Davis Cup will be my main priority, but not for now."
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
You may be correct, but I'm not convinced. I read the link posted earlier, and it was still unclear. The poster in that link seemed to agree with you, but the comment in that post seemed to disagree.

When is the Year End No.1 award given? If it's given prior to DC, then DC wouldn't count. The quote below is from Federer. It seems to imply that he wants to finish No.1 and THEN win DC.

"Right now I am focused to win the tournament of Basel, which for me is very important. After that, we will see what happens with the rest. At this point of the season my priority has to be considered to close the year as World No.1. The Davis Cup only will arrive at the very end of the season. When that moment will come Davis Cup will be my main priority, but not for now."
I would interpret Federer's quote as him wanting to focus and produce the best results in Paris and WTF to strengthen his YE#1 bid, then focus on DC. At that point if it does come down to DC points, to Fed then both priorities are the same thing. So I don't see the exclusiveness of those 2 priorities.
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
I'm pretty sure that the YE #1 award is given at the Tour Finals, IF the YE #1 is locked up by that time.

That is what happened in 2012, Djokovic had locked up the YE #1 before the completion of the WTF (as Federer elected not to play Paris that year)

It would be given later if the ranking was still dependant on DC, I presume.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
I probably missed that. My bad. I must say, however, that I'm not yet sure about this, but things will become clearer in one week.

Thank you for doing all of this analysis.
I'm sure that is the case. It is because of that rule that Federer dropped a grand total of 3000 points at the end of 2012 before the WTF.
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
A bit of an update: the ATP website has corrected the drop date of WTF 2013 points to 3rd November, meaning that Federer does have the chance to gain #1 at the end of Paris as I mentioned earlier.

Also please keep bumping this thread as I see members constantly have queries about the rankings and this thread can sort these issues out.
 

Russeljones

G.O.A.T.
Now before you start disputing the content of the following, please read the whole post carefully before commenting, I'm trying to put everything into one post comprehensively to clear any confusions:

Rankings and Race

The Rankings reflect the points gained by a player in the last 52 weeks. The Race reflects the points gained by a player since the start of the calendar year. In both cases, for the top players the rankings consist of the 4 slams, WTF (if applicable), the 8 mandatory 1000s, and 6 of the best remaining tournaments (MC/DC/500s/250s).

EXCEPTIONS to the rule:
- The WTF points from a previous year will be dropped in the rankings immediately after the conclusion of the last even before the current year's WTF.
- The points for the Davis Cup final in a previous year are counted in the current year's race. (If you don't believe me go and add up Djokovic's points right now)
- This means that by the time the WTF starts, the rankings and race will be equal to each other (so technically speaking, the race is from WTF to WTF).

Djokovic and Federer's race to YE#1

Djokovic currently stands at 9010 points in the race, Federer at 8520. Federer is now 490 points behind Djokovic.

However as I mentioned above, the race includes the DC final points from last year. Meaning that you can knock off 150 points from Djokovic when it comes to calculating the YE #1.

Therefore this technically means that Federer needs to outperform Djokovic by 340 points for the remainder of the year.

If in the case that Switzerland does NOT achieve 3-0 within the first 2 days in the Davis Cup final and Federer has to play 2 singles live rubbers, provided that Federer wins both and Switzerland wins, Federer can gain a maximum of 225 points there. This means that there is a high chance that Federer only needs to outperform Djokovic by 115 points over Paris and WTF to secure YE #1.

Claiming the #1 ranking after the conclusion of Paris

Bear in mind that there is a gap week between Paris and WTF, and certainly the #1 ranking (NOT YE) is up for grabs. We only need to look at the race points now as after Paris the rankings and race are the same.

Federer can rise to #1 for 2 weeks and stretch his record at #1 to a minimum of 304 weeks IF:

- Federer wins Paris and Djokovic doesn't reach the final, OR;
- Federer loses in the final and Djokovic doesn't reach the QF.

I'm not going to post any more scenarios right now before the conclusion of Paris as there are too many permutations due to the round robin format of the WTF.

If anybody has anything to add to this feel free to comment and I'll change this post accordingly.

Also I don't want people talking about whether Federer deserves #1 or not as 1. This thread is not created for such purpose. 2. I honestly couldn't care less about what you think of it.

That is all. Thank you.
Nice work here. I hope it goes down to the wire. Should be exciting.
 

World Beater

Hall of Fame
if federer gets to the final and loses both paris and the WTF to djokovic...can he make up the difference at davis cup?

my intuition says no.

If he however, splits the difference - wins paris but loses the WTF to djokovic...then it might get hairy?
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
if federer gets to the final and loses both paris and the WTF to djokovic...can he make up the difference at davis cup?

my intuition says no.

If he however, splits the difference - wins paris but loses the WTF to djokovic...then it might get hairy?
Of course not for the first scenario, that would mean Djokovic widening the gap by 900 points when the gap was already 490 prior to that, DC only offers 225 maximum so that can't happen.

Second scenario would guarantee Djokovic #1 as well because he would widen the gap by 100 points, so the DC points can't cover the 590 gap.

Federer winning WTF and losing Paris (both against Djokovic) doesn't work either as the gap would then be 390.

Basically, if both Federer and Djokovic reach the finals in both Paris and WTF, Djokovic just needs to win one of them to guarantee #1.
 

World Beater

Hall of Fame
Of course not for the first scenario, that would mean Djokovic widening the gap by 900 points when the gap was already 490 prior to that, DC only offers 225 maximum so that can't happen.

Second scenario would guarantee Djokovic #1 as well because he would widen the gap by 100 points, so the DC points can't cover the 590 gap.

Federer winning WTF and losing Paris (both against Djokovic) doesn't work either as the gap would then be 390.

Basically, if both Federer and Djokovic reach the finals in both Paris and WTF, Djokovic just needs to win one of them to guarantee #1.
Federer is really gonna have to earn it.

:)

Thanks for the fast reply.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
If Fed somehow managed to get #1 without winning either a slam or WTF, he would be a really, really lame #1. So, better for his sake if he has to win WTF.
 

WhiskeyEE

G.O.A.T.
Of course not for the first scenario, that would mean Djokovic widening the gap by 900 points when the gap was already 490 prior to that, DC only offers 225 maximum so that can't happen.

Second scenario would guarantee Djokovic #1 as well because he would widen the gap by 100 points, so the DC points can't cover the 590 gap.

Federer winning WTF and losing Paris (both against Djokovic) doesn't work either as the gap would then be 390.

Basically, if both Federer and Djokovic reach the finals in both Paris and WTF, Djokovic just needs to win one of them to guarantee #1.
It depends if Novak wins all 3 of his RR matches.

If Novak loses one of his RR Fed could lose the Paris final to him and still get #1.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
If Fed somehow managed to get #1 without winning either a slam or WTF, he would be a really, really lame #1. So, better for his sake if he has to win WTF.
It might be similar to earlier this year where it was possible for Nole to be a Slamless #1 after Rome(if he'd played in Madrid he would have had a great chance of doing so). So who knows, maybe Fed would prefer to get #1 back after WTF? Obviously he'd still be without a Slam to his name but having the next biggest tournament would at least add a bit more weight to it.
 

Vensai

Professional
Both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will have to work hard until the end of the season to obtain the YE #1 ranking.
 
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