Raonic Tiafoe perfectly explains the level gap
- Thread starter Fabresque
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Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
I know how ranking points work. My point is, when you look at his results, they don't scream top 10. I'm not saying he's there because the ATP have made a mistake, the points are the points. But it's clear he's there because of the sheer amount of tournaments played. Another user quoted me saying he's played 22 tournaments in the last 12 months.
Let's look at what you said.
A US Open SF - 720 points
Indian Wells SF - 360 points
Paris QF - 180 points
Every single other result counting for his ranking from slams and Masters are under 100 points. He has other results over 100 points and they are 250's, one 500 final and the United Cup (lol). So he's there because of the volume of easy tournaments played.
Now take Khachanov.
Aus Open SF - 720 points
US Open SF - 720 points
French Open QF - 360 points
Miami SF - 360 points
Madrid QF - 180 points
Now that screams top 10. Two slam SF's plus another slam QF. Plus a Masters SF and another QF. Unfortunately he's had injuries in the last 12 months so he hasn't played a ridiculous 22 tournaments like Tiafoe has done with his bunch of 45-90 points sitting pretty in his ranking breakdown.
Tiafoe hasn't done anything wrong, i'm just saying it doesn't look top 10. And the loss to outside the top 500 Raonic proves that.
norcal
Legend
I mean a guy who could barely win matches at the challenger level beat Joker because he has a huge game and gives you no rhythm. These things happen. (talking about Vessely btw)
If it were up to TTW, Fognini would be permanantly in the top 10 because he is so talented. (did Fog even crack the top 10 lmao)
edit: google says he reached #9, take that Francis!
Sampras-Bruguera 1993
Legend
Berdych and Tsonga would be top 25-30
Open era GOATs playing against gutless tour of kids today
Open era GOATs playing against gutless tour of kids today
ElChivoEspañol
Hall of Fame
You don't engage with people that challenged your false narrative and proceed to gaslight your way out of backing up your arguments?
Got ya.
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
They didn't actually perform worse, they just didn't play the insane amount of tournaments that he has, as you point out. 22 in the last 12 months.
He's 13th in the race in 2023 and his results at slams and Masters?
Aus Open 3R
French Open 3R
Wimbledon 3R
Indian Wells SF
Miami 3R
Madrid 3R
Rome 3R
Canada 1R
He's made the QF stage at a big tournament just once. He's #13 because he won two ATP250's and the stupid United Cup giving points. One of his 250 titles he didn't even face a top 70 player. He doesn't have a single win over a top 10 player this year. I come back to what I said, he's just not top 10 to me. His ranking may say it but he doesn't play like one.
McGradey
Hall of Fame
Raonic is a better player than Tiafoe, so no big shock here. His serve is among the best we’ve seen. If it were David Ferrer coming back and outgrinding the young guys at age 74, then yes, that’d be an interesting development. But a guy with a huge serve can always win with very little else going on, look at Kyrgios.
Vincent-C
Hall of Fame
I mostly agree RE Raonic, and "nice job!" to him, but Kyrgios had quite a bit more
than a big serve. I think his best day is behind him, alas.
onehandbh
G.O.A.T.
I think the ATP only counts the top 19 or 20 tournament results and he has the 10th most points.
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
I like the analysis of the first half but the second half metric has zero relevance. Feels like you're just being kind to Tiafoe for the sake of it
For instance, you've listed Carreno Busta as an example and given him 1 QF at the same age Tiafoe is now which doesn't really matter. PCB was a late starter who didn't make his slam debut til he was 22. His first full year on tour he was already 23/24.
Tiafoe made his slam debut at 17 and played his first full year at 19.
Compare the results for the two but. For PCB within 2 or 3 years he made a slam SF and QF in the same year and finished 2017 at #10. Tiafoe is still yet to make a SF and QF in the same year like PCB managed to despite Tiafoe having several more years on tour. If anything, that stat makes Tiafoe look worse. In PCB's 4th full year on tour he made a slam SF & QF. Tiafoe is playing his 7th full year on tour and still hasn't accomplished that.
You also list John Isner as someone who didn't make a slam QF til after he was 26 but... so what? He wasn't a top 10 player. What got him to being in the top 10 (at the age of 33 might I add) was that was when he made the SF and also won Indian Wells. So I don't really know why that matters?
Also, would be worth mentioning the Masters results for some of those guys who got to the top 10. Hurkacz got there on the back of his Masters win in Miami. Isner got there with his Indian Wells title. Tiafoe doesn't have a Masters, he hasn't even made a Masters final. Even Basilashvili has lol.
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dr325i
G.O.A.T.
Correct, if you play 40 tournaments, you won’t get ranking points of all 40 added up.
I agree with Darcy that Tiafoe is not the top 10 player in 2023 according to his results, and that will show after USO unless he repeats his run from 2022
onehandbh
G.O.A.T.
If a player is not usually a "top 10 player", their rankings fall soon enough.
Getting to and staying inside the top 100 seems to be difficult. Requires transitioning from someone getting a lot of points from challengers (but little money) to more money at 250/500/1000/grand slams but more difficult opponents at each round and a risk of dropping down the rankings if they don't get results soon.
Vincent-C
Hall of Fame
The tendency on the opaqueNet to put words into others' mouths (see above) when no one has said them is really disturbing, and unfortunately is now endemic to this medium.
Musterrific
Hall of Fame
That match actually disproves your point - peak Blake couldn't even beat old man Agassi.
Vincent-C
Hall of Fame
Did anyone ever strike the ball better than the unfortunately heavy-footed Agassi?
Seles and Segura come to mind; not many others.
Khachanov hasn't won a single tournament in the past 52 weeks. Heck, he hasn't even had a single final in the past 52 weeks!
"Won three tournaments" (like Tiafoe has) screams top 10 much more than "won nothing and didn't even get to any finals".
...and there's nothing "ridiculuous" about playing 22 tournaments. That's a perfectly normal amount to play. Looking at the numbers of tournaments that players have played, the top 20 have played :17, 17, 22, 23, 24, 22, 25, 22, 26, 22, 19 (Khachanov), 22, 23, 25, 21, 21, 24, 24, 27, 23.
At 22 tournaments in the past 52 weeks, Tiafoe has actually played less than average. Alcaraz and Djokovic play fewer but that's about it, outside of injured Khachanov.
Musterrific
Hall of Fame
I miss Agassi. He was like a human ball machine with those laser-like, crisp, clean shots off both wings. Efficient, compact strokes. Phenomenally talented player.
Vincent-C
Hall of Fame
As an aside, I'd like to know why Fred couldn't beat Blake/Berdych/whoever at the Olympics.
A number of thoughts come to mind.
Vincent-C
Hall of Fame
To do what he did- at his best, pushing top guys around at will without great wheels himself- was admirable. I love the good movers best, though.
mavsman149
Hall of Fame
I like the analysis of the first half but the second half metric has zero relevance. Feels like you're just being kind to Tiafoe for the sake of it
For instance, you've listed Carreno Busta as an example and given him 1 QF at the same age Tiafoe is now which doesn't really matter. PCB was a late starter who didn't make his slam debut til he was 22. His first full year on tour he was already 23/24.
Tiafoe made his slam debut at 17 and played his first full year at 19.
Compare the results for the two but. For PCB within 2 or 3 years he made a slam SF and QF in the same year and finished 2017 at #10. Tiafoe is still yet to make a SF and QF in the same year like PCB managed to despite Tiafoe having several more years on tour. If anything, that stat makes Tiafoe look worse. In PCB's 4th full year on tour he made a slam SF & QF. Tiafoe is playing his 7th full year on tour and still hasn't accomplished that.
You also list John Isner as someone who didn't make a slam QF til after he was 26 but... so what? He wasn't a top 10 player. What got him to being in the top 10 (at the age of 33 might I add) was that was when he made the SF and also won Indian Wells. So I don't really know why that matters?
Also, would be worth mentioning the Masters results for some of those guys who got to the top 10. Hurkacz got there on the back of his Masters win in Miami. Isner got there with his Indian Wells title. Tiafoe doesn't have a Masters, he hasn't even made a Masters final. Even Basilashvili has lol.
You aren’t wrong about PCB and especially Isner who played college, but those are more exception than the rule.
My purpose of showing their results at a similar age as Tiafoe is because earlier someone had criticized that he’s only made 1 SF and 1 QF in his career. I was trying to illustrate that Tiafoe at this stage in his career is close to on par (a little better or worse) with other players who finished the year 10th.
That’s not a bad idea to compare Masters results actually, maybe if I have time later this week I’ll try to compare these players Masters results but that would be quite a bit more time consuming haha.
mavsman149
Hall of Fame
I randomly saw a recent video of him hitting balls at his local club, strokes look as crisp and clean as ever, I miss him as well
mavsman149
Hall of Fame
Excellent post, in addition I’d like to add that only your 19 best tournament results actually count towards your ranking so claiming Tiafoe is only ranked as high as he is because plays more tourneys than others (which you just showed isn’t true to begin with) becomes an entirely moot point
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
Lol. So is Sebastian Baez with his 2 weak ATP 250's screaming more of a top 10 player to you than Khachanov, a guy with two slam SF's and a slam QF with impressive wins? Khachanov has great results the last 12 months. Two slam SF's and a QF as well as a Masters SF and QF. Meanwhile, you say two weak 250 titles and the United Cup shared trophy for Tiafoe screams more top 10?
My god Nicolas Jarry and Sebastian Baez have won the same as Tiafoe with two weak 250's this year. Should they be top 10? Or higher than Khachanov cause he doesn't have any weak 250 titles?
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McGradey
Hall of Fame
I agree, Nick has a good all round game, but he often doesn’t use much of it apart from his serve, which is still enough in many matches.
CHillTennis
Hall of Fame
daggerman
Hall of Fame
OK, but I wasn't attributing a quote to anyone.
I responded to the claim: "Raonic beating Tiafoe is evidence of a 'weak era'"
By saying: "Saying Raonic beating Tiafoe is evidence of a 'weak era' requires pretending that somebody with Raonic's serve isn't always dangerous against most opponents."
You're obviously welcome to disagree with my point, but leave the righteous indignation at home, please. You can keep your 10th grade PSAT words and YouTube University logical fallacies there, too.
Vincent-C
Hall of Fame
Keizer
Hall of Fame
I was surprised by that, so I took a look at Evans’s results around then. He’s been awful this summer other than this one run. First round losses in every tournament since the clay swing other than Barcelona and Surbiton (where he lost to Diallo in R2). I guess this is just a reversion to the mean.
He also apparently hit a 188 kph/116 mph forehand winner that I’m sure Tsitsipas thought was a serve.
RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
Raonic hit 37 aces, 57 winners and only 20 errors in almost 3 hours of play. I don’t think it's fair to just say he has barely played for 2 years when he obviously has worked for to come back and then puts these kind of numbers. It ain't easy playing him. With that elite serve and FH of his you can be semi retired and still be a very dangerous player for most of the players no matter who you are.
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It’s unbelievable. He hit a 215 kph second serve against Daniel according to the commentators today and had 3 second serve aces.
lordkarim
New User
"peak blake would bla bla bla..." if PEAK blake would play vs today's top 10 in their PEAK, he would not won ****. Stop throw peak everywhere.
junior74
Talk Tennis Guru
I agree. Crazy good 1-2 combo. Also a good attacking slice and great wingspan at the net. Obvious issues with movement and fitness, though.
Tiafoe is still overrated.
Monfils (I thought he was retired) just beat Tsittipas one of the career inflation era titans in an age where he should be at his peak. More and more examples every day.
WYK
Hall of Fame
Raonic was hitting 135+mph serves up the middle, volleying like Pete Sampras, and painting the lines with 90mph backhands on one of the quicker courts on tour.
Did none of these guys watch the match?
It's beginning to become like those baseball forums where people peck on their keyboards after reading the stats having never watched the game.
How can you enjoy a sport if you aren't even watching it?
Did none of these guys watch the match?
It's beginning to become like those baseball forums where people peck on their keyboards after reading the stats having never watched the game.
How can you enjoy a sport if you aren't even watching it?
sportsfan1
Legend
There may not be an athleticism gap, but there's a skill and application gap. No one was winning so many slams so easily in their mid to late 30s, it's unprecedented.
At least Ferrer, Tsonga etc could compete and were winning the expected matches and titles.
The competition now is surprisingly weak. Ruud ranked #4 or higher gets routined in finals, and didn't even prep for Wimbledon 2023 losing r1. Even with surfaces playing the same. Kyrgios is a part timer. Tsitsipas has the athleticism but not the game. There's no consistency.
Soul_Evisceration
Hall of Fame
I love how the referee just drops down after the Kane Pyro fire lolThat's why Nadal is still the GOAT
I agree with you. But I want to point out that Raonic is more than a serve. He has a good forehand and solid backhand. His one issue has always been his movement. He's a big guy and moves like one. He's not incredibly slow but he's also not some genetic freak like Medvedev who moves like a guy that's 5-6 inches shorter. I only watched a bit of his return matches but he seems to look fit and almost like he's moving better than before. Raonic playing like Raonic is a perennial top 10 player. His overall talent, not his game, reminds me a bit of Berdych. Dangerous player for the top 10 guys, but he doesn't have that extra gear to beat top 10 guys playing well because of his movement and resulting lack of defense.
Kyrgios, who's often described as "talented," doesn't have a fundamentally different game or talent. Kyrgios is a bit faster though but doesn't have the speed to make it a weapon either.
Start da Game
Hall of Fame
though i agree some results have been quite strange in recent times but this one it's just one match, raonic wins because of his massive serve advantage......tiafoe i think will get his act together by us open......expect fireworks, don't forget he was a semifinalist last year......
Ruud is this generation's Ferrer. He does have a slightly bigger serve which may account for a slightly higher ranking but yes, he doesn't have the weapons to make guys like Alcaraz, Nadal, Djokovic sweat. Tsitsipas' problem is a lack of weapons. His only A level shot is his forehand but the rest of his strokes are solid but not great. He would probably do well to be a more attacking player to hide his mediocre backhand but it's hard to give up his current style because it has gotten some very good results. But his current level of play is kinda like a constant B+. Any player who has a good day stands a chance of beating him. He seems to be fixing his serve but I don't think he'll ever become a huge server.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Epic AF
ScentOfDefeat
G.O.A.T.
Ok, so now McDonald is all of a sudden a genius according to OP? How does that work?
That's what happens when you oversimplify and generalise based on one result and on the pathetic notion that "weak" or "strong" eras are a thing.
That's what happens when you oversimplify and generalise based on one result and on the pathetic notion that "weak" or "strong" eras are a thing.
CyBorg
Legend
This has always been true.
Lazuras_Long
Rookie
mavsman149
Hall of Fame
Tiafoe will probably have a better career than the top 2.
Tsonga wasn’t a weak top 10 guy at all though, had big wins against top players in big tourneys, reached a slam final by absolutely crushing Nadal. He also made the Tour Finals, won 2 Masters and finished year end top 10 5 times.
