Rare feat on Tour — winning 44%+ of return points

[ghostofMecir]

Obviously the season isn’t over, but Carlitos has been finding his absolute best on return since his poor match vs. Djoko at AO, though credit to Djoko. He is currently winning 44% of his return points, a very rare mark especially considering that players are holding serve at higher rates (see serve points won % for the top 50–it’s the highest it’s ever been). Many of the seasons here are clay skewed, of course, but Carlos only has 5 of his matches played on clay so far.

Return points won %

2003 Coria, 44.8%
2011 Djokovic, 44.6% (45.5% on hard, higher than what he won on clay)
2005 Nadal, 44.6%
1992 Chang, 44.2%
2005 Coria, 44.2%
2011 Murray, 44.2%
2012 Nadal, 44.2%
1994 Berastegui, 44.1%
2018 Nadal, 44.1%
1991 Perez-Roldan, 44.1% (missing match data)
2025 Alcaraz, 44.0%
1991 Muster, 44.0%
2016 Djokovic, 43.9%
1995 Muster, 43.8%
1996 Chang, 43.7%
2007 Ferrer, 43.6%
2014 Nadal, 43.6%
2012 Djokovic, 43.5%
1995 Agassi, 43.4%
2016 Nadal, 43.2%
2005 Nalbandian, 43.2%
2015 Djokovic, 43.0%

 

[nolefam_2024]

Good for Alcaraz. So as long as he doesn't face Nole, his numbers will go UP and up it seems.

 

[Winner Sinner]

It is also true that so far in this 2025 if we exclude a Hurkacz still in a moment of crisis (even if in Rotterdam to get to the semifinals he was not in such a crisis), in addition to Djokovic himself, he has not really faced elite serves.

However Alcaraz in return is the most devastating player of the current circuit on medium-slow surfaces, it did not even take this monstrous statistic to understand it.
With his very aggressive response on second serves he can take on the inertia of the exchange right away.

 

[nolefam_2024]

It is also true that so far in this 2025 if we exclude a Hurkacz still in a moment of crisis (even if in Rotterdam to get to the semifinals he was not in such a crisis), in addition to Djokovic himself, he has not really faced elite serves.

However Alcaraz in return is the most devastating player of the current circuit on medium-slow surfaces, it did not even take this monstrous statistic to understand it.
With his very aggressive response on second serves he can take on the inertia of the exchange right away.

If Raz plays full clay season, 3 masters, barcelona and rg, I think he can push these numbers very high.

The destruction of Medvedev in 2023 was one thing i always remember, he was ruthless.

he won 46.3 of return points on grass vs this tall Medvedev, breaking him 6 times. It was very scary return game.

 

[Winner Sinner]

If Raz plays full clay season, 3 masters, barcelona and rg, I think he can push these numbers very high.

The destruction of Medvedev in 2023 was one thing i always remember, he was ruthless.

he won 46.3 of return points on grass vs this tall Medvedev, breaking him 6 times. It was very scary return game.

I was also impressed by Sinner who against Shelton at the last Australian Open won 56 of 118 points (47.4%) on Shelton's serve, but then you get angry because you consider Shelton an overrated server.

Which is even more impressive considering that the previous occasion they faced each other (Shanghai 2024) Sinner on the same surface (hard outdoor) won only 25% of the points on return despite winning that match 2-0.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I was also impressed by Sinner who against Shelton at the last Australian Open won 56 of 118 points (47.4%) on Shelton's serve, but then you get angry because you consider Shelton an overrated server.

Which is even more impressive considering that the previous occasion they faced each other (Shanghai 2024) Sinner on the same surface (hard outdoor) won only 25% of the points on return despite winning that match 2-0.

Shelton is overrated player not server. He is pretty good server. This is impressive. But Shelton is not near Medvedev who even on grass has pretty solid ground game.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Shelton is overrated player not server. He is pretty good server. This is impressive. But Shelton is not near Medvedev who even on grass has pretty solid ground game.

In fact, Sinner won 33% of the points on return against Medvedev at Wimbledon.
Sinner loses incisiveness on grass return, and I can't explain whether this is due to the fact that the ball bounces lower, and with such a high center of gravity, he has a harder time coordinating himself in the right way.

 

[socallefty]

I thought TTW has been saying Alcaraz is in a big slump?

 

[Winner Sinner]

I thought TTW has been saying Alcaraz is in a big slump?

On hard he was unquestionably in crisis, and if someone denies all this it means that his eyes are lined.
And in any case you have to counterbalance those return data with the service data that will surely be mediocre for a player of his status.

 

[nolefam_2024]

In fact, Sinner won 33% of the points on return against Medvedev at Wimbledon.
Sinner loses incisiveness on grass return, and I can't explain whether this is due to the fact that the ball bounces lower, and with such a high center of gravity, he has a harder time coordinating himself in the right way.

Sinner is also easier to ace against on hard courts than Alcaraz.

In 2024 the ace against % on hard courts , cc , gc for sinner , alcaraz and adm are as below

Ace Against %	HC	CC	GC
Sinner	7.29	4.12	11.87
Alcaraz	5.86	3.31	5.59
ADM	6.79	3.06	5.48

Alcaraz and ADM are the best returners on the tour right now. But on HC, Raz is harder to ace than even ADM.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I thought TTW has been saying Alcaraz is in a big slump?

There is return pts won and then there is also serve pts won.

Raz has dropped a lot on serve buddy. He is not in slump but he is serving worse than 2023.

 

[Winner Sinner]

Sinner is also easier to ace against on hard courts than Alcaraz.

In 2024 the ace against % on hard courts , cc , gc for sinner , alcaraz and adm are as below

Ace Against %	HC	CC	GC
Sinner	7.29	4.12	11.87
Alcaraz	5.86	3.31	5.59
ADM	6.79	3.06	5.48

Alcaraz and ADM are the best returners on the tour right now. But on HC, Raz is harder to ace than even ADM.

Yes, but even though I am the first to say that on grass the incisiveness of Sinner's return drops drastically, those disproportionate data are also inflated by the Halle tournament, which I think is the most complicated of the entire current circuit for a returner.
That is a real potato field, in short, the closest thing to vintage grass.
Sinner since the final with Djokovic in Turin 2023, in the following 89 matches played, has only once failed to get any break points in a match, and it happened precisely in Halle in the final with Hurkacz.
Obviously the reverse is also true, that is, the service numbers are also inflated but positively.

 

[Mark-Touch]

Obviously the season isn’t over, but Carlitos has been finding his absolute best on return since his poor match vs. Djoko at AO, though credit to Djoko. He is currently winning 44% of his return points, a very rare mark especially considering that players are holding serve at higher rates (see serve points won % for the top 50–it’s the highest it’s ever been). Many of the seasons here are clay skewed, of course, but Carlos only has 5 of his matches played on clay so far.

Return points won %

2003 Coria, 44.8%
2011 Djokovic, 44.6% (45.5% on hard, higher than what he won on clay)
2005 Nadal, 44.6%
1992 Chang, 44.2%
2005 Coria, 44.2%
2011 Murray, 44.2%
2012 Nadal, 44.2%
1994 Berastegui, 44.1%
2018 Nadal, 44.1%
1991 Perez-Roldan, 44.1% (missing match data)
2025 Alcaraz, 44.0%
1991 Muster, 44.0%
2016 Djokovic, 43.9%
1995 Muster, 43.8%
1996 Chang, 43.7%
2007 Ferrer, 43.6%
2014 Nadal, 43.6%
2012 Djokovic, 43.5%
1995 Agassi, 43.4%
2016 Nadal, 43.2%
2005 Nalbandian, 43.2%
2015 Djokovic, 43.0%

Can you please clarify what you mean by "return points"?
Is that return of serve?
If so, is it first serve or second serve or both combined?

 

[EddieChang]

Very impressive stats for people who are not great on clay (or do not play a lot on clay) like 2011 Murray

 

[wang07]

Without a decent serve you are forced to go all out on return all the time. Tiny is just the ATP version of Kasatkina at this point

 

[BauerAlmeida]

Obviously the season isn’t over, but Carlitos has been finding his absolute best on return since his poor match vs. Djoko at AO, though credit to Djoko. He is currently winning 44% of his return points, a very rare mark especially considering that players are holding serve at higher rates (see serve points won % for the top 50–it’s the highest it’s ever been). Many of the seasons here are clay skewed, of course, but Carlos only has 5 of his matches played on clay so far.

Return points won %

2003 Coria, 44.8%
2011 Djokovic, 44.6% (45.5% on hard, higher than what he won on clay)
2005 Nadal, 44.6%
1992 Chang, 44.2%
2005 Coria, 44.2%
2011 Murray, 44.2%
2012 Nadal, 44.2%
1994 Berastegui, 44.1%
2018 Nadal, 44.1%
1991 Perez-Roldan, 44.1% (missing match data)
2025 Alcaraz, 44.0%
1991 Muster, 44.0%
2016 Djokovic, 43.9%
1995 Muster, 43.8%
1996 Chang, 43.7%
2007 Ferrer, 43.6%
2014 Nadal, 43.6%
2012 Djokovic, 43.5%
1995 Agassi, 43.4%
2016 Nadal, 43.2%
2005 Nalbandian, 43.2%
2015 Djokovic, 43.0%

I'm surprised Coria 2003 and 2005 both rank very high but 2004 is not on the list at all. Do you have his % for that season? I would have guessed it would be higher than the other two.

 

[GRASScaraz]

Alcaraz would have no chance against strong era top 5 players like Ljubicic. He would be barely noticed and have a Srichaphan like career.

 

[Kralingen]

1995 Agassi is the most impressive name on this list. If you know you know.

 

[Kralingen]

Without a decent serve you are forced to go all out on return all the time. Tiny is just the ATP version of Kasatkina at this point

Not sure bout that.

Dasha has a more reliable serve.

 

[adil1972]

Elena Rybakina 'punished' after choosing country over Stuttgart title defence

Elena Rybakina is set to drop out of the top 10 of the WTA Rankings for the first time in two years as she was forced to make a tough decision over her Stuttgart Open title defence.

www.tennis365.com

When was lazt time that top player has chosen DC / Fed Cup over ATP / WTA tourny

 

[nighthawkrr]

Shelton is overrated player not server. He is pretty good server. This is impressive. But Shelton is not near Medvedev who even on grass has pretty solid ground game.

He was a ban away from winning a slam though. Fritz too lol. If Sinner is banned we’d be talking about Fritz and Shelton as slam winners. Let that sink in.

 

[nolefam_2024]

He was a ban away from winning a slam though. Fritz too lol. If Sinner is banned we’d be talking about Fritz and Shelton as slam winners. Let that sink in.

If sinner is banned fritz may win the title but he is among Medvedev and draper 1/3 chance.

Shelton has to beat zverev.

 

[jl809]

2011 Murray is underappreciated af… just got nuked by Djokodal unfortunately should have won Rome 11 at least ffs

 

[mike danny]

2011 Murray is underappreciated af… just got nuked by Djokodal unfortunately should have won Rome 11 at least ffs

There’s a reason he’s underappreciated. He was in pigeon mode that year

 

[jl809]

There’s a reason he’s underappreciated. He was in pigeon mode that year

May be valid

 

[ghostofMecir]

I was also impressed by Sinner who against Shelton at the last Australian Open won 56 of 118 points (47.4%) on Shelton's serve, but then you get angry because you consider Shelton an overrated server.

Which is even more impressive considering that the previous occasion they faced each other (Shanghai 2024) Sinner on the same surface (hard outdoor) won only 25% of the points on return despite winning that match 2-0.

Follows up his incredible returning performance at the 2024 USO.

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...turn-game-performance-at-the-2024-uso.775367/