Discussion in 'Former Pro Player Talk' started by montx, Mar 7, 2008.
If Andre Agassi and Pistol Pete played a exhibition today who do you think would win and why?
Agassi is in better shape, but his return of serve reflexes seem to have diminished. I'd still pick him in straights. Sampras isn't consistent enough to go against that barrage.
What surface are they playing on? That is key here. A fast surface I give Sampras the edge, a slower surface Agassi
Assuming, when you say exhibition we are talking about both players putting their all into the match and disregarding surface, then I would have to go for Agassi.
Considering things from my favourite ELO stance, when Sampras retired his game was in major decline and his ELO had fallen from 2749 to 2669, a fall of 80 points. Agassi, on the other hand was currently scoring 2660 which was only 27 points lower than his career peak.
Allowing for the fact that Agassi was still scoring 2642 ELO three years later we can extrapolate the average rate of decline seen in players in the latter parts of their career to derive the following two figures as estimates of their current playing standards, were they active.
Pete Sampras 2525
Andre Agassi 2580
Surprisingly these scores predict both players could still be expected to perform in the top 40 in the world while Agassi could probably still scrape into the top 10.
A 55 point gap would give Agassi a 60% chance of winning a three set match against Sampras at this point in time and a 63% chance in a 5 set match.
The actual set score predictions using ELO would be as follows:
3 Set Match
Agassi 2 sets -0 32%
Agassi 2 sets -1 28%
Sampras 2 sets -1 21%
Sampras 2 sets -0 19%
5 Set Match
Agassi 3 sets -0 18%
Agassi 3 sets -1 24%
Agassi 3 sets -2 21%
Sampras 3 sets -2 16%
Sampras 3 sets -1 14%
Sampras 3 sets -0 8%
Of course all this is just the opinion of probability theory and is probably as valid as anyone elses point of view, it's just that the conclusion is made in a numerical form and the reasoning behind the conclusion is mathematically based.
Take care all.
PS the percentages for the five set match don't add to exactly 100 owing to the fact that the percentages are rounded to the nearest point.
I would think sampras would win because has been playing more, but i would love to just see a match between them because i am a junior and have never seen them play.
Wuornos, that's amazing. Great job backing up your opinion.
i'd love to see agassi and graf enter a major as a mixed team just to see if they could do it.
Has Agassi been playing, other than in his back yard? If not, then Sampras would have a better chance.
He still plays. Darren Cahill said he watched Agassi hit recently, and he was pounding the ball just like he did in his prime. The only thing different with Agassi now is that he can't go through the grind of the tour anymore.
And BTW, that Rios exo was completely scripted. Agassi was just feeding the ball to Rios and letting him have his way with it.
PS wins on Grass, AA wins on clay...
Right now? Pete--maybe even on clay.
Pete wouldn't win on clay but if its a fast surface like the indoor surfaces that Federer and Sampras played on in the 3 exhibitions in Asia then I would give the edge to Sampras.
Now Pete, i think
Sorry to put a spanner in the works but why just one match? Whoever won it wouldn't tell us much. They would have to play a series of exhibition matches before we know who was in better shape overall.
Andre's more of a grinder, and the legs are the first to go. Pete wins a lot of quick points on his serve, so fitness isn't as much an issue to him as Andre.
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