Reality Check on Thiem

bjsnider

bjsnider

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Thiem has had good results since the AO, winning a couple of titles and claiming some scalps along the way. It's tempting to think of Thiem as the next ascendant young star. I checked the stats to see if that idea is realistic. It's not. In key areas, Thiem's numbers are up a couple of percentage points against his career. Thiem's first serve percentage has spiked 8 points. Here are the 2016 numbers:

DLbIZZd.png

Career Numbers:

2udF1Hi.png

That's the good news. Here's the bad news. How does Thiem currently rank against the field in 2016? Out of the top 10 in every significant category.

1st Serve Points Won 39* revised Tuesday to 29
2nd Serve Points Won 18* revised Tuesday to 13
Service Games Won 33* revised Tuesday to 28
1st Serve Return Points Won 16* revised Tuesday to 11
2nd Serve Return Points Won 40* revised Tuesday to 26
Return Games Won 24* revised Tuesday to 17

Maybe Thiem is suffering from a skewed result due to a larger sample size than the field? True, Thiem has played many more matches thus far than most players. Perhaps the field has not regressed to the mean as quickly as Thiem?

One way to correct for that is to project Thiem's current numbers to the end of the season and then compare them to the field in the most recent complete season available -- 2015. How does that look?

1st Serve Points Won 24
2nd Serve Points Won 15
Service Games Won 25
1st Serve Return Points Won 8
2nd Serve Return Points Won 17
Return Games Won 12

Good numbers, right? Except we have to consider that the field is at a much worse disadvantage in this comparison than Thiem's large sample size puts him in 2016. They've had three or four times the number of opportunities to make mistakes. Certainly we can expect Thiem to regress in many of these stats over the course of 2016.

Quick Word about Thiem on Clay

Delimiting the stats to clay improves Thiem's rankings in the key stats, just not to something like dominant levels. Cuevas and Nadal are ahead, just to name two, and most of the field hasn't played the surface yet. Still, Thiem may be more dangerous on clay.

Thiem in the top 10?

Thiem is currently ranked 14. The numbers really don't say he can get much higher than that -- in fact it looks to me like he'll sink down into the 25-35 range at some point this season. The top 10 players typically have a few statistical categories in which they are also ranked in the top 10 -- for instance the incredibly important duo second serve points/return points won. Thiem is not close to the top ten in any key stat this season. Players don't have to be in the top 10 in every key stat -- just a few. Stats reflect why players happen to win matches -- offense, defense, serve, whatever the case may be. On what is Thiem hanging his hat? I hope for Thiem's sake he continues to have a great season, but he may have already peaked.

EDIT: After the ATP updated the stats page on Tuesday, Thiem jumped many spots in all categories -- he didn't stay in place or drop in any of them. Based on the new rankings, Thiem's stats are at least as impressive as the 9th ranked player, Jo-Willy. Although Thiem is still significantly less impressive statistically than Berdych or anyone higher, I think Thiem is definitely a threat to move into the 8-10 range. This would have been my conclusion had the ATP's site been updated as I expected on Monday. I think Thiem is a threat at the big clay tournaments, but does not present a consistent threat to the players currently ranked 1-7, and I would add Raonic and probably Kyrgios to that list. That aspect of my original conclusion remains unchanged at this point.
 
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I agree he's probably already peaked.

Time isn't on his side (he's already 22), and grinders like him don't tend to have long careers.
 
At first I thought the title was 'reality check on theism' :D

Yeah, I don't know if he's peaked but I think there probably will be a regression to the mean soon.
 
Numbers are one thing, mentality is another. Not quite sure what it is about him but something is missing. He almost seems to nice. He doesn't have the brashness, cockiness, touch of arrogance, killer instinct or winner's mentality which I think is critical to being a top flight player who can win majors. I guess he is missing what Kyrgios has, some people refer to it as the X factor. He has a solid game no doubt, but there needs to be more to it than that.
 
bjsnider said:
Thiem has had good results since the AO, winning a couple of titles and claiming some scalps along the way. It's tempting to think of Thiem as the next ascendant young star. I checked the stats to see if that idea is realistic. It's not. In key areas, Thiem's numbers are up a couple of percentage points against his career. Thiem's first serve percentage has spiked 8 points. Here are the 2016 numbers:

DLbIZZd.png

Career Numbers:

2udF1Hi.png

That's the good news. Here's the bad news. How does Thiem currently rank against the field in 2016? Out of the top 10 in every significant category.

1st Serve Points Won 39
2nd Serve Points Won 18
Service Games Won 33
1st Serve Return Points Won 16
2nd Serve Return Points Won 40
Return Games Won 24

Maybe Thiem is suffering from a skewed result due to a larger sample size than the field? True, Thiem has played many more matches thus far than most players. Perhaps the field has not regressed to the mean as quickly as Thiem?

One way to correct for that is to project Thiem's current numbers to the end of the season and then compare them to the field in the most recent complete season available -- 2015. How does that look?

1st Serve Points Won 24
2nd Serve Points Won 15
Service Games Won 25
1st Serve Return Points Won 8
2nd Serve Return Points Won 17
Return Games Won 12

Good numbers, right? Except we have to consider that the field is at a much worse disadvantage in this comparison than Thiem's large sample size puts him in 2016. They've had three or four times the number of opportunities to make mistakes. Certainly we can expect Thiem to regress in many of these stats over the course of 2016.

Quick Word about Thiem on Clay

Delimiting the stats to clay improves Thiem's rankings in the key stats, just not to something like dominant levels. Cuevas and Nadal are ahead, just to name two, and most of the field hasn't played the surface yet. Still, Thiem may be more dangerous on clay.

Thiem in the top 10?

Thiem is currently ranked 14. The numbers really don't say he can get much higher than that -- in fact it looks to me like he'll sink down into the 25-35 range at some point this season. The top 10 players typically have a few statistical categories in which they are also ranked in the top 10 -- for instance the incredibly important duo second serve points/return points won. Thiem is not close to the top ten in any key stat this season. Players don't have to be in the top 10 in every key stat -- just a few. Stats reflect why players happen to win matches -- offense, defense, serve, whatever the case may be. On what is Thiem hanging his hat? I hope for Thiems's sake he continues to have a great season, but he may have already peaked.
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@Gary Duane do you buy any of this? The ranking guess is laughable as Thiem already is 3rd in the ATP race for points at 1110 which would get him to around 40 if he stopped playing for the rest of the year. Thiem has also played more matches on clay than anyone on tour except Cuevas which completely skews the data. The ATP site does not have the common match stats of winners and unforced errors.

Thiem's first serve percentage was very high at the end of Acapulco with something like 75, 73, and 78% in the finals. Thiem served 22 aces and 1 DF in the final while winning 82% of first serve points. The amount of aces versus double faults is crazy along with the 78% first serve percentage. Thiem seems to also play his best tennis at critical junctures of a match. I believe @falstaff78 posted something about Thiem's clay court tournament wins and quality of opponent were higher over the same period than Nadal's were when he first ran to the French Open title at age 18.

Berdych, Ferrer, and Nishikori have a truck load of points to defend before the French Open while Thiem has few. I'd be surprised if Thiem was not seeded between 6 and 8 at the French as that will be his likely ranking.

Last year Thiem was:
Aces 23rd (Djokovic was 18th for the year)
1st Serve Percentage 40th (Djkovic was 5th for the year)
1st Serve Points Won 18th at 75% (Djkovic was 24th for the year at 74%)
2nd Serve Points Won 12th at 55% (Djkovic was 1st at 60% and this is a very telling stat)
Service Games Won 21st with 84% (Djokovic was 5th with 89%)
1st Serve Return Points Won % 25th with 28% (Djokovic was 1st with 57%)
2nd Serve Return Points Won % 26th 49% (Djokovic was 1st with 34%)

Thiem won 3 events.

Just browsing around the career statistics I'd say that 2nd serve points % won and 1st serve points % won are very telling stats for greatness. For Clay this year Thiem has the following stats:
2nd serve return points 50% (17th and very average number, and down from 6th last year at 54%)
1st serve return points 32% (15th but up a lot from last years 30%, good for 41st)
1st serve points won 73% (16th similar to last years 73%, good for 19th)
2nd serve points won 51% (21st and down from 55% last year which was good for 11th)

To put these numbers in perspective if you look at the all time clay court greats:
2nd serve return points won Nadal leads the way at 56%. Thiem's 2015 number would be good enough for 15th all time.
1st serve return points won Nadal and Coria lead the way at 39% so Thiem's 30% last year was awful and 32% this year is an improvement, but not the stuff of greatness
1st serve points won (this number is misleading with Karlovic leading the way, if we filter down to true clay courters, Kuerten and Almagro lead the way at 74% for their career, so Thiem's 73% is actually very, very strong)
2nd serve points won (Nadal has an amazing 56% career with the next clay courter being Muster at 54%. Thiem's 55 percent last year is off the charts and even 51% is not horrible on clay)

So for last year Thiem on clay had all time great numbers for 2nd serve points won at 55% right between Nadal and Muster's career numbers
Thiem also had all time great numbers for 1st serve points won for true clay courters with 73% right behind Kuerten's 74% and much better than Nadal's 70%
2nd serve return points won is all off the charts last year at 54%, around 15th all time
Thiem's 1st serve return has improved from awful last year to 32% this year which is something, but a long way to go.

With Thiem showing all time great clay court numbers in 3 of these 4 key stats, the OP's prediction of Thiem falling to 25 to 35 this year is clearly a failure of epic proportions. I'll be shocked if Thiem is not in the top 8 by the French Open and with his recent hard court performance, he should be able to improve his ranking by year end given the horrible season Thiem had after July last year.
 
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Thiems 1st serve return looked much better this weekend in Acapulco so I got the numbers to check my impression.

Hard court stats from recent matches on Thiem's 1st serve return (his greatest weakness):
Versus the hot big serving Querrey in SF - Thiem won 41% of 1st serve return points. The all time ATP career leader on hard courts in this category are Murray and McEnroe at 34%. So off the charts against the big serving Querrey.
Versus the impressive service game of Dimitrov in the QF - Thiem won a staggering 45% of 1st serve return points
Versus Tomic in the final - Thiem came back to reality with only 28%

This will be a key thing to watch for in upcoming Thiem matches, but he appears to be working successfully on this weakness. Thiem was 26% last year on first serve points on hard courts.
 
@Meles
@Gary Duane

I believe there's some logic fail in OP's analysis. I would argue Thiem is indeed a very promising young player. His 2016 does not appear to be a statistical oddity like Raonic's tie-break-fuelled 2015. And I don't expect mean-reversion to kill off his progress. See below for why I believe this is the case.


(1)
OP claims that there have only been incremental improvements in thiem's fundamental stats between his career numbers and his 2016 numbers. what he doesn't realize is that lots of incremental changes can add up to a big change.

the most fundamental ratio in tennis is the ratio of points that you win, to the points that you surrender. this is called "dominance ratio." it neatly encapsulates the impact of all the metrics OP has quoted above (1srv%, 1srv w%, 2srv w%, rtrn w%). it also shows, pound for pound, how good a tennis player you are relative to your opponents.

let's put all of OP's stats together and look at thiem's dominance ratio. but comparing 2016 to pre-2016 (which makes more sense than comparing 2016 to career, which includes 2016):

Thiem pre 2016: won 36% of return points. opponents won 35% on DT's serve. dominance ratio = 36/35 = 1.03
Thiem 2016: won 39% of return points. opponents won 33% on DT's serve. dominance ratio = 39/33 = 1.19

So Thiem has gone from winning 3% more points than his opponents pre-2016, to winning 19% more points than his opponents in 2016.


(2)
The obvious question is, is this a big improvement?

OP takes a subjective approach in his post. He simply looks up rankings for individual stats. And in support of this approach, he makes the statistically unverified claim that:

bjsnider said:
The top 10 players typically have a few statistical categories in which they are also ranked in the top 10
Click to expand...

Fortunately there's a more objective way. We simply can look at the dominance ratio for players at different YE rankings in 2015. It turns out Thiem's improvement corresponds to a jump from a ranking of 20-30, to a ranking of 8-10.

2015 Y/E rank 1: 1.43
2015 Y/E rank 2: 1.24
2015 Y/E rank 3: 1.40

2015 Y/E rank 8: 1.18
2015 Y/E rank 9: 1.17
2015 Y/E rank 10: 1.19

2015 Y/E rank 20: 1.07
2015 Y/E rank 21: 1.01
2015 Y/E rank 22: 1.05

2015 Y/E rank 30: 1.01
2015 Y/E rank 40: 0.99
2015 Y/E rank 50: 0.97
2015 Y/E rank 100: 0.95

(The last table doesn't show average ranking of opponents. This is an important factor, obviously. e.g. Djokovic was not just 43% better than his opponents, he was 43% better than opponents ranked 36 on average. Murray was 24% better than opponents ranked 53. Federer was 40% better than opponents ranked 46 on average etc. etc. Thiem's ave opp ranking before 2016 checks out with guys in the 20-30 range, and his ave opp ranking in 2016 checks out with guys in the 8-10 range. Can provide details if anyone is interested.)



(3)
Finally, OP makes the point that the only stat which has spiked is first serve percentage. as though to suggest this number alone explains Thiem's surge.

bjsnider said:
In key areas, Thiem's numbers are up a couple of percentage points against his career. Thiem's first serve percentage has spiked 8 points.
Click to expand...

Well, first of all Thiem's 1srv% has not spiked from a normal level, to an unsustainable level. It has spiked from a low level, to a normal, sustainable level.

But even if indulge OP's logic, we find that most of the increase in Thiem's dominance ratio is NOT coming from the spike in first serve percentage:

in 2016 Thiem has so far won 67% of service points. This breaks down into: (1srv% 66%) x (1srv w% 74) + (1-66%) x (2srv w% 54%)

Now let's do the same calculation assuming that the first serve percentage did not "spike," but only increased 3 percentage points above the pre-2016 level:
(1srv% 60%) x (1srv w% 74) + (1-60%) x (2srv w% 54%) => 66% of service points won

We can then calculate Thiem's dominance ratio in this latter scenario:
Thiem 2016: won 39% of return points. opponents won 34% on DT's serve (i.e. 1-66%). dominance ratio = 39/34 = 1.15

That is to say, only 25% of the total increase in dominance ratio comes from the "spike" in first service percentage. (1.19-1.15)/(1.19-1.03).

Indeed if the first serve % had not increased at all in 2016, Thiem's dominance ratio for 2016 would still be 1.13.
 
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Meles said:
@Gary Duane do you buy any of this? The ranking guess is laughable as Thiem already is 3rd in the ATP race for points at 1110 which would get him to around 40 if he stopped playing for the rest of the year. Thiem has also played more matches on clay than anyone on tour except Cuevas which completely skews the data. The ATP site does not have the common match stats of winners and unforced errors.
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I'm a bottom-line kind of guy. All the stats I have watched show that great champions win close to or mor than 60% of their games, and that takes in everything. It doesn't say how. It only says that this is what is needed to be really great. Super aggressive players can fall further below this, but not much, because they tend to coast when they are serving well and only get really stubborn returning when they need to break back. Sampras is the best example I know of this.

Nadal won his first title in 2004, but the ATP says he turned pro in 2001. There are no stats for Nadal until 2002, and on clay
they are:
2002: 61/28 89 (divide by 2 for percent). That's pretty crappy, hardly showing a future champion.
2003: 80/30 110
2004: 74/40 114
2005: 84/46 120 (60%)

Let's look at Thiem:
2012: 71/14 85
2013: 87/23 110 (he only played a total of 60 games, so not of much statistical use)
2014: 74/27 101
2015: 83/27 100
2016 (so far): 81/26 107 (53.5%)

Thiem has to win a LOT more games before I would pick him as any danger to the top players this year. I'll watch his stats through to the beginning of RG to see if they continue to go up.

On all surfaces so far this year: 83/25 108.

This is good, but it indicates that he is winning close matches but is not yet dominant over weaker players.

However, with those numbers he can be in the top 10, or close to it. Wawrinka was at 107 for the year. But he was around 120 or higher at RG.
 
falstaff78 said:
@Meles
@Gary Duane

I believe there's some logic fail in OP's analysis. I would argue Thiem is indeed a very promising young player. His 2016 does not appear to be a statistical oddity like Raonic's tie-break-fuelled 2015. And I don't expect mean-reversion to kill off his progress. See below for why I believe this is the case.


(1)
OP claims that there have only been incremental improvements in thiem's fundamental stats between his career numbers and his 2016 numbers. what he doesn't realize is that lots of incremental changes can add up to a big change.

the most fundamental ratio in tennis is the ratio of points that you win, to the points that you surrender. this is called "dominance ratio." it neatly encapsulates the impact of all the metrics OP has quoted above (1srv%, 1srv w%, 2srv w%, rtrn w%). it also shows, pound for pound, how good a tennis player you are relative to your opponents.

let's put all of OP's stats together and look at thiem's dominance ratio. but comparing 2016 to pre-2016 (which makes more sense than comparing 2016 to career, which includes 2016):

Thiem pre 2016: won 36% of return points. opponents won 35% on DT's serve. dominance ratio = 36/35 = 1.03
Thiem 2016: won 39% of return points. opponents won 33% on DT's serve. dominance ratio = 39/33 = 1.19

So Thiem has gone from winning 3% more points than his opponents pre-2016, to winning 19% more points than his opponents in 2016.


(2)
The obvious question is, is this a big improvement?

OP takes a subjective approach in his post. He simply looks up rankings for individual stats. And in support of this approach, he makes the statistically unverified claim that:



Fortunately there's a more objective way. We simply can look at the dominance ratio for players at different YE rankings in 2015. It turns out Thiem's improvement corresponds to a jump from a ranking of 20-30, to a ranking of 8-10.

2015 Y/E rank 1: 1.43
2015 Y/E rank 2: 1.24
2015 Y/E rank 3: 1.40

2015 Y/E rank 8: 1.18
2015 Y/E rank 9: 1.17
2015 Y/E rank 10: 1.19

2015 Y/E rank 20: 1.07
2015 Y/E rank 21: 1.01
2015 Y/E rank 22: 1.05

2015 Y/E rank 30: 1.01
2015 Y/E rank 40: 0.99
2015 Y/E rank 50: 0.97
2015 Y/E rank 100: 0.95

(The last table doesn't show average ranking of opponents. This is an important factor, obviously. e.g. Djokovic was not just 43% better than his opponents, he was 43% better than opponents ranked 36 on average. Murray was 24% better than opponents ranked 53. Federer was 40% better than opponents ranked 46 on average etc. etc. Thiem's ave opp ranking before 2016 checks out with guys in the 20-30 range, and his ave opp ranking in 2016 checks out with guys in the 8-10 range. Can provide details if anyone is interested.)



(3)
Finally, OP makes the point that the only stat which has spiked is first serve percentage. as though to suggest this number alone explains Thiem's surge.



Well, first of all Thiem's 1srv% has not spiked from a normal level, to an unsustainable level. It has spiked from a low level, to a normal, sustainable level.

But even if indulge OP's logic, we find that most of the increase in Thiem's dominance ratio is NOT coming from the spike in first serve percentage:

in 2016 Thiem has so far won 67% of service points. This breaks down into: (1srv% 66%) x (1srv w% 74) + (1-66%) x (2srv w% 54%)

Now let's do the same calculation assuming that the first serve percentage did not "spike," but only increased 3 percentage points above the pre-2016 level:
(1srv% 60%) x (1srv w% 74) + (1-60%) x (2srv w% 54%) => 66% of service points won

We can then calculate Thiem's dominance ratio in this latter scenario:
Thiem 2016: won 39% of return points. opponents won 34% on DT's serve (i.e. 1-66%). dominance ratio = 39/34 = 1.15

That is to say, only 25% of the total increase in dominance ratio comes from the "spike" in first service percentage. (1.19-1.15)/(1.19-1.03).

Indeed if the first serve % had not increased at all in 2016, Thiem's dominance ratio for 2016 would still be 1.13.
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I like the dominance ratio. My one complaint would be isn't dominating on 2nd serves better than a higher first serve return point win rate. Those 2nd serve numbers so often tell the tale on individual matches.

Thiem's first serve percentage for the year is up 10% from last year. I doubt this has anything to do with luck or a random spike in performance. Previously Thiem mainly hit a hard first serve that would reach speeds around 140 mph at times. Thiem's big first serve kicker is getting him aces and he seems to be serving much more conservatively (like Nadal) with more work on the ball. The numbers from the final with Tomic defy belief (22 Ace, 1 DF, 79% first serve, 82% of service points won). Thiem will not serve well like this in every match, but the trajectory is decidely towards getting better with his serving. Is it possible to use statistics to project improvement?
 
TheGhostOfAgassi said:
@Meles & @falstaff78 Respect! This must be most impressive posts I've seen ever in here. Better than any sports journalist could have done ;););) Well done!
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Thanks. I like numbers and have really enjoyed looking at the tennis stats on the ATP site for the first time. It may all be a bit over blown as other players also had strong numbers last year, but Thiem definitely is strong in three of the four areas. Djokovic is the scary one last year. Wawrinka was able to hold about 50% of his second serve points against Djoko at the French and that is what got him the match. I think in the Rome final Djoko got over 70% on the Fed 2nd serves. Murray got his serving numbers up some last year and he will also be a challenge. By these numbers and Thiem's obvious improvements its hard to beliewe that he won't be very competitive against all but these two players.
 
Meles said:
Thanks. I like numbers and have really enjoyed looking at the tennis stats on the ATP site for the first time. It may all be a bit over blown as other players also had strong numbers last year, but Thiem definitely is strong in three of the four areas. Djokovic is the scary one last year. Wawrinka was able to hold about 50% of his second serve points against Djoko at the French and that is what got him the match. I think in the Rome final Djoko got over 70% on the Fed 2nd serves. Murray got his serving numbers up some last year and he will also be a challenge. By these numbers and Thiem's obvious improvements its hard to beliewe that he won't be very competitive against all but these two players.
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The question is.... Is Thiem ready for a war vs Novak and Andy? he has to be truly ready for it. Does he have a chance in 5 sets?
 
Plus the stats in 2015/2016 are against quality higher ranked players while the rest of his stats are a combination of challenger and lower ranked players.
 
If you have a good eye and watch a player for 5-10 matches, you can clearly figure out what ranking you can see in near term.

Thiem looks like a 8-10 rank player to me. He can get past Tsonga and Gasquet.

Now, Kyrgios can get to top 5 if he can stay focused. But will he do that ?
 
Omega_7000 said:
Plus the stats in 2015/2016 are against quality higher ranked players while the rest of his stats are a combination of challenger and lower ranked players.
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This is a good point. Excluding matches vs. players ranked >1000, which skew the averages:
Pre-2016 the average rank of Thiem's opponents in 122 ATP matches was 67
In 2016 the average rank of Thiem's opponents in 21 ATP matches was 55
 
AMGF said:
I don't need no numbers. I have seen his last 3 matches in Acapulco, this kid is playing great tennis.

Numbers analysis reflects the past, Thiem is the future.
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Great poast. This is how it should be. Stats exist for the sake of sport and not the other way around.

Fortunately, in this situation the numbers agree with you!
 
Meles said:
Thiem's first serve percentage for the year is up 10% from last year. I doubt this has anything to do with luck or a random spike in performance. Previously Thiem mainly hit a hard first serve that would reach speeds around 140 mph at times. Thiem's big first serve kicker is getting him aces and he seems to be serving much more conservatively (like Nadal) with more work on the ball. The numbers from the final with Tomic defy belief (22 Ace, 1 DF, 79% first serve, 82% of service points won).
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Excellent!
 
@falstaff78 @Gary Duane @Meles
Great stats, falstaff in particular.

@Meles
I think you're overestimating Thiem and underestimating the players ahead of him with this "I'll be shocked if Thiem is not in the top 8 by the French Open and with his recent hard court performance, he should be able to improve his ranking by year end given the horrible season Thiem had after July last year."

While Ferrer and Nishi do have some defending to do, it's not much more than we would expect for players their level. Berdych has more, but he's also got a 1500 cushion to Thiem. And Tsonga and Gasquet have hardly more than Thiem, if even that.

When I look at a players upside, I also look at how well they do against top opposition. Thiem is 3-10 for his career and 2-1 this year (beating Rafa, Ferrer, losing to Fed). Now 1-9 prior to this year is quite poor. Compare that to Kyrgios, who's 7-12 (3-2 this year).
Beating Rafa and beating Ferrer this year could be different than beating other top-10'ers. So far, neither player has exactly played up to their normal standards.

Ferrer could be falling down hard this year, but he could also surprise us for another year. Who knows.
Either way, I think Thiem will get close to top-8 by the time of the FO (say top-7 to top-12), but am not yet convinced he'll get there.
 
thomasferrett said:
I agree he's probably already peaked.

Time isn't on his side (he's already 22), and grinders like him don't tend to have long careers.
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I hope this is a joke, honestly can't tell.

As for OP, I am a stats head. I love numbers. But what do these numbers mean? Nothing.
He's playing slightly better in certain areas...guess what, he's at a career high ranking! This kid, and all talented 22 year olds, should be getting better every season.
None of the spikes are that dramatic, nor are the totals unsustainable.
Reality check: 18-4, World No. 14, 2 titles before March. THOSE numbers mean something.

I'm also a huge Gilles Simon fan and he ranked No. 3 in second serve points won last season, what a lot of pundits talk about as one of the single most important stats in tennis for top players.
Is Simon world No. 3? Or a way better player than Thiem could ever be?
Numbers are fun but winning is more important.
 
Chanwan said:
@falstaff78 @Gary Duane @Meles
Great stats, falstaff in particular.

@Meles
I think you're overestimating Thiem and underestimating the players ahead of him with this "I'll be shocked if Thiem is not in the top 8 by the French Open and with his recent hard court performance, he should be able to improve his ranking by year end given the horrible season Thiem had after July last year."

While Ferrer and Nishi do have some defending to do, it's not much more than we would expect for players their level. Berdych has more, but he's also got a 1500 cushion to Thiem. And Tsonga and Gasquet have hardly more than Thiem, if even that.

When I look at a players upside, I also look at how well they do against top opposition. Thiem is 3-10 for his career and 2-1 this year (beating Rafa, Ferrer, losing to Fed). Now 1-9 prior to this year is quite poor. Compare that to Kyrgios, who's 7-12 (3-2 this year).
Beating Rafa and beating Ferrer this year could be different than beating other top-10'ers. So far, neither player has exactly played up to their normal standards.

Ferrer could be falling down hard this year, but he could also surprise us for another year. Who knows.
Either way, I think Thiem will get close to top-8 by the time of the FO (say top-7 to top-12), but am not yet convinced he'll get there.
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Good poast, and welcome back to the cuckoo's nest;)

Clay season should indeed be quite open in that segment of the rankings. It seems open whether the usual suspects will perform yet again or whether they are dropping off a bit. Excited to see whether Thiem can take any big names in the masters as well.
 
Chanwan said:
@falstaff78 @Gary Duane @Meles
Great stats, falstaff in particular.

@Meles
I think you're overestimating Thiem and underestimating the players ahead of him with this "I'll be shocked if Thiem is not in the top 8 by the French Open and with his recent hard court performance, he should be able to improve his ranking by year end given the horrible season Thiem had after July last year."

While Ferrer and Nishi do have some defending to do, it's not much more than we would expect for players their level. Berdych has more, but he's also got a 1500 cushion to Thiem. And Tsonga and Gasquet have hardly more than Thiem, if even that.

When I look at a players upside, I also look at how well they do against top opposition. Thiem is 3-10 for his career and 2-1 this year (beating Rafa, Ferrer, losing to Fed). Now 1-9 prior to this year is quite poor. Compare that to Kyrgios, who's 7-12 (3-2 this year).
Beating Rafa and beating Ferrer this year could be different than beating other top-10'ers. So far, neither player has exactly played up to their normal standards.

Ferrer could be falling down hard this year, but he could also surprise us for another year. Who knows.
Either way, I think Thiem will get close to top-8 by the time of the FO (say top-7 to top-12), but am not yet convinced he'll get there.
Click to expand...


Great post as always @Chanwan .

In my responses in this thread I have been trying to undermine the case that "Thiem's 2016 is a fluke or an outlier". this is very different from the case that "Thiem is a lock to be a top player"

for the latter case it's probably better to rely on gut feel and instinct. I think this is where Meles, and a lot of the other posters are coming from. and I have to say I am joining in the excite!
 
Apologies to everyone who responded to the original post with anything of substance. The ATP stats page had apparently not been updated to reflect Thiem's most recent tournament, as I assumed it had. Today the stats rankings have changed considerably in Thiem's favour. I have updated the OP with the new stats and also revised comments and (more optimistic)conclusions at bottom. Note that the stats on Thiem's personal page, which is the source of the two images I captured, have not changed, so I guess they were up to date on Monday.
 
For Kyrgios fans his stats show 57% 2nd serve return percentage on hard courts This year. McEnroe and Murray career leaders in this stat at 54%. Kyrgios was 48% last year on hard. A healthy Kyrgios will be staggering this year. His return game has been transformed from a weakness to a strength.
 
bjsnider said:
Apologies to everyone who responded to the original post with anything of substance. The ATP stats page had apparently not been updated to reflect Thiem's most recent tournament, as I assumed it had. Today the stats rankings have changed considerably in Thiem's favour. I have updated the OP with the new stats and also revised comments and (more optimistic)conclusions at bottom. Note that the stats on Thiem's personal page, which is the source of the two images I captured, have not changed, so I guess they were up to date on Monday.
Click to expand...
I saw the same stats originally reported when I looked yesterday at ATP site so I will peak at hard court numbers for 2016 again. Facts are stubborn things, but stats can be made to lie. Thanks for being wrong as this was fun to look at. Had to hammer on the original ranking conclusion.
 
Thiems hard court stats don't look all that much better in 2016 except for his glaring weakness, 1st serve return points won on hard. Thiem is at 31% up from 26% last year. This is a big move and Thiem's first serve return points won % is an area to keep watching on both clay and hard courts.
 
Chanwan said:
@falstaff78 @Gary Duane @Meles
Great stats, falstaff in particular.

@Meles
I think you're overestimating Thiem and underestimating the players ahead of him with this "I'll be shocked if Thiem is not in the top 8 by the French Open and with his recent hard court performance, he should be able to improve his ranking by year end given the horrible season Thiem had after July last year."

While Ferrer and Nishi do have some defending to do, it's not much more than we would expect for players their level. Berdych has more, but he's also got a 1500 cushion to Thiem. And Tsonga and Gasquet have hardly more than Thiem, if even that.

When I look at a players upside, I also look at how well they do against top opposition. Thiem is 3-10 for his career and 2-1 this year (beating Rafa, Ferrer, losing to Fed). Now 1-9 prior to this year is quite poor. Compare that to Kyrgios, who's 7-12 (3-2 this year).
Beating Rafa and beating Ferrer this year could be different than beating other top-10'ers. So far, neither player has exactly played up to their normal standards.

Ferrer could be falling down hard this year, but he could also surprise us for another year. Who knows.
Either way, I think Thiem will get close to top-8 by the time of the FO (say top-7 to top-12), but am not yet convinced he'll get there.
Click to expand...
@Chanwan

A conservative estimate would be that Thiem makes round of 16 in the 5 ATP 1000 events and a SF at Barcelona for a 630 point gain. He's got about 200 points to defend so maybe 2700 points by the French which would be just enough for top 10.
If he averages QF in the 5 ATP 1000 events that would be another 450 points for 3150 which would get him to 9. Ferrer is likely to drop below this. I agree that catching Nishikori or Berdych will be hard, but it is possible if they have a poor Spring. With help from a player like Wawrinka or Federer going deeper this year. Nishikori and Berdych are very likely to drop its just a matter of how much. If Thiem wins one of the ATP 1000 events then that adds another 720 points which would make his rise to top 8 or higher by the French a slam dunk.
 
falstaff78 said:
Great post as always @Chanwan .

In my responses in this thread I have been trying to undermine the case that "Thiem's 2016 is a fluke or an outlier". this is very different from the case that "Thiem is a lock to be a top player"

for the latter case it's probably better to rely on gut feel and instinct. I think this is where Meles, and a lot of the other posters are coming from. and I have to say I am joining in the excite!
Click to expand...
I know and saw where you're coming from. I'm not quite ready to join the hype train fully, but I do see him as a fringe member or better of the top-10 in the very near future. Top-5 this year would surprise me quite a bit.

Meles said:
@Chanwan

A conservative estimate would be that Thiem makes round of 16 in the 5 ATP 1000 events and a SF at Barcelona for a 630 point gain. He's got about 200 points to defend so maybe 2700 points by the French which would be just enough for top 10.
If he averages QF in the 5 ATP 1000 events that would be another 450 points for 3150 which would get him to 9. Ferrer is likely to drop below this. I agree that catching Nishikori or Berdych will be hard, but it is possible if they have a poor Spring. With help from a player like Wawrinka or Federer going deeper this year. Nishikori and Berdych are very likely to drop its just a matter of how much. If Thiem wins one of the ATP 1000 events then that adds another 720 points which would make his rise to top 8 or higher by the French a slam dunk.
Click to expand...
Thiem also has 250 points from Nice last year.
Winning an ATP 1000 would obviously seal the deal. But bear in mind those are almost exclusively won by the Big 4 + Wawa in recent times.
Thiem hasn't blown me away yet and I'm yet not convinced he'll beat the likes of Birdman, Nishikori, Gasquet and Tsonga more often than not. Not to speak of top-4.
Sysyphus said:
Good poast, and welcome back to the cuckoo's nest;)

Clay season should indeed be quite open in that segment of the rankings. It seems open whether the usual suspects will perform yet again or whether they are dropping off a bit. Excited to see whether Thiem can take any big names in the masters as well.
Click to expand...
Cheers, I think some usual suspects seem likely to drop off a bit (Rafa, Ferrer, Birdman) - but whether it's enough for anyone to capitalize is a big if. It feels like the top-8 has been top-8 forever (with Raonic joining them every now and then).

TheMusicLover said:
Good point.

I well remember one Mr. Roger Federer getting schtick from the media at age 22, "because he still hadn't won anything important" back then. ;)
Click to expand...
You're probably being sarcastic (have been away, so am slow). Fed won Wimbledon just before turning 22 and dominated the sport from age 22 and a bit (as you well know)
 
Meles said:
For Kyrgios fans his stats show 57% 2nd serve return percentage on hard courts This year. McEnroe and Murray career leaders in this stat at 54%. Kyrgios was 48% last year on hard. A healthy Kyrgios will be staggering this year. His return game has been transformed from a weakness to a strength.
Click to expand...

yes I've been keeping an eye on that. In a few weeks I will post an update in my thread where I am tracking his return points won!
 
tacou said:
I hope this is a joke, honestly can't tell.

As for OP, I am a stats head. I love numbers. But what do these numbers mean? Nothing.
He's playing slightly better in certain areas...guess what, he's at a career high ranking! This kid, and all talented 22 year olds, should be getting better every season.
None of the spikes are that dramatic, nor are the totals unsustainable.
Reality check: 18-4, World No. 14, 2 titles before March. THOSE numbers mean something.

I'm also a huge Gilles Simon fan and he ranked No. 3 in second serve points won last season, what a lot of pundits talk about as one of the single most important stats in tennis for top players.
Is Simon world No. 3? Or a way better player than Thiem could ever be?
Numbers are fun but winning is more important.
Click to expand...
Just keep watching the % of games won this year. 55% starts to get dangerous, 57.5% is usually top 3, and 60% or higher is usually either #1 or #2. Novak was around 62.5% last year, on all surfaces. Fed was just under 60% but 61% on HCs. Murray edged Fed out at a lower % at #3, but only at the end of the year. And he may not stay there long. He was at 56.5%. So watch Thiem. Watch where this % goes. If it keeps going up, then he is going to be VERY dangerous.
 
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Gary Duane said:
Just keep watching the % of games won this year. 55% starts to get dangerous, 57.5% is usually top 3, and 60% or higher is either #1 or #2. Novak was around 62.5% last year, on all surfaces. Fed was just under 60% but 61% on HCs. Murray edged Fed out at a lower % at #3, but only at the end of the year. And he may not stay there long. He was at 56.5%. So watch Thiem. Watch where this % goes. If it keeps going up, then he is going to be VERY dangerous.
Click to expand...
Thiem on hard courts this year has won 69% of serve points and 52% of return points. That looks to be roughly over 60% and probably higher than this in Acapulco. Don't get me going @Gary Duane !
chairshot.gif
(Too late: the hard court number is ahead of Murray; but not Fed).
 
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Meles said:
Thiem on hard courts this year has won 69% of serve points and 52% of return points. That looks to be roughly over 60% and probably higher than this in Acapulco. Don't get me going Gary!
chairshot.gif
Click to expand...
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/dominic-thiem/tb69/player-stats?year=2016&surfaceType=hard

84/25 109 almost 55%. Which is VERY good, but it won't win RG unless he does a Stan. ;) (Meaning that he suddenly jumps up to around 60%.

And 69/52 on points is great.

Novak last year was 69/56 on points.

So Thiem is doing REALLY well... ;)
 
Meles said:
Haha. Games not points. Good stat. Muster was 79/37 for his career on clay. Thiem is not near that.
Click to expand...
Best ever on clay for a career as of last year:

Nadal, clay career: 85/43 128 - 64%. No one else comes close. But he is now bringing down that average each year.

Here are the best of the best:

Career: All Clay

Nadal: Clay: 85/43 128
Djokovic: Clay: 81/36 117
Muster: Clay: 79/37 116
Coria: Clay: 74/40 114
Agassi: Clay: 78/35 113
Courier: Clay: 82/31 113
Federer: Clay: 84/28 112
Ferrer: Clay: 76/36 112
Bruguera: Clay: 76/36 112
Ferrero: Clay: 78/34 112
Edberg: Clay: 79/32 111
Gustafsson: Clay: 74/35 111
Kuerten: Clay: 80/30 110
 
All I know is that everyone here jumps on the bandwagon of the 'next big thing' way too early.

My bet is that Thiem disappears just like Janowicz has done within the next 9 months, and you will spend the rest of his career hovering around the bottom of the top 100 - top 200, kinda like a Zeballos type guy. He's already 22, you guys are forgetting that - time is most certainly NOT on his side.

If a young player wins 15 Slams in a row out of the blue, sure he deserves a bit of hype, but when he's only won one ATP 500 in his life (and that looks like it'll be his last) it's just laughable to expect him to do pretty well on tour.
 
Meles said:
Thiem on hard courts this year has won 69% of serve points and 52% of return points. That looks to be roughly over 60% and probably higher than this in Acapulco. Don't get me going @Gary Duane !
chairshot.gif
(Too late: the hard court number is ahead of Murray; but not Fed).
Click to expand...
But return or serve POINTS won mean very little. What really matters is serve or return GAMES won.
Return games won % for 2016 on hard:
1- Djokovic: 36.8
2- Murray: 32.1
3- Delpo: 31.57
4- Fed: 31.53
5- Dzumhur: 30.9
6- Berankis: 30
7- Goffin: 29.3
8- Kyrgios: 28.57
9- Fabbiano: 28.57 (fewer matches)
10- Klizan: 28
11- Nishikori: 27.8
12- Berdych: 27.6
13- Young: 27.3
14- Brown: 26.9
15- Stepanek: 26.3
16- Nadal: 26.2
17- Monfils: 25.85
18- Wawrinka: 25.82
19- Gasquet: 25.3
20- Becker: 25.2
21- Thiem: 25.1

(Most spectacular drop = Ferrer, from top 5 to off the radar!!)

Service games won % on hard for 2016:
1- Isner: 94
2- Raonic: 93.8
3- Djoko: 90.7
4- Tsonga: 89.2
5- Federer: 89.1
6- Wawrinka: 88.9
7- Kyrgios: 88.8
8- Cilic: 88.6
9- Bedene: 88.1
10- Muller: 88
11- Murray: 87.2
12- Sock: 86.9
13- Karlovic: 86.6
14- Cuevas: 86.5
15- Querrey: 86.2
16- Lopez: 86.1
17- Nishi: 85.9
18- Monfils: 85.4
19- Vanni: 85.18
20- Johnson: 85.12
21- Delpo: 85
22- Simon: 84.9
23- Ferrer: 84.8
24- Berdych: 84.6
25- Fognini: 84.48
26- Agut: 84.46
27- Thiem: 84.43

Karlo out of top 10 wow, Berd sliding down, Rafa completely off the radar and let's be honest: Thiem's stats on hard suck. Kyrgios much more promising.
 
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