Reality Check on Thiem

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Don't read the following if watching FO on tape.
Time to bump this thread and its two Thiem skeptics since Thiem is in route to being six in the world.;)
From my signature:
"Thiem is currently ranked 14. The numbers really don't say he can get much higher than that -- in fact it looks to me like he'll sink down into the 25-35 range at some point this season" (That's the OP's original post which he updated on March 1 and backed off of his prediction.)
"I don't think I've seen such a young generation of incompetents in all of the years I've been watching tennis." cc.
And of course CC, he probably missed the two incompetents battling today in an epic match. Goffin came back and took 1st set from Thiem. Thiem turned the tables in sets 2 and 3. Monumental tiebreaker and staggering set point save by Thiem (3 Goffin shots should have been enough to finish the point) to avert a 2 sets to 0 deficit. CCs "pitch black horse" is making his move on the field at the French Open.:confused:

Ha ha. I didn't see the match. I did tape it but haven't watched it yet. I do know the results. As I said in another thread, if Thiem can somehow manage to beat Djokovic, I'll have a whole new appreciation for him but I don't think he will do it. Not yet.
 

meltphace 6

Hall of Fame
Thiem is currently ranked 14. The numbers really don't say he can get much higher than that -- in fact it looks to me like he'll sink down into the 25-35 range at some point this season. The top 10 players typically have a few statistical categories in which they are also ranked in the top 10 -- for instance the incredibly important duo second serve points/return points won. Thiem is not close to the top ten in any key stat this season. Players don't have to be in the top 10 in every key stat -- just a few. Stats reflect why players happen to win matches -- offense, defense, serve, whatever the case may be. On what is Thiem hanging his hat? I hope for Thiem's sake he continues to have a great season, but he may have already peaked.
K, thx.
 

meltphace 6

Hall of Fame
Thiem and all his supporters are going to be sent crashing down to Earth in spectacular fashion soon.
OMG-Meme-by-Chad-Syphrett.png
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
But return or serve POINTS won mean very little. What really matters is serve or return GAMES won.
Return games won % for 2016 on hard:
1- Djokovic: 36.8
2- Murray: 32.1
3- Delpo: 31.57
4- Fed: 31.53
5- Dzumhur: 30.9
6- Berankis: 30
7- Goffin: 29.3
8- Kyrgios: 28.57
9- Fabbiano: 28.57 (fewer matches)
10- Klizan: 28
11- Nishikori: 27.8
12- Berdych: 27.6
13- Young: 27.3
14- Brown: 26.9
15- Stepanek: 26.3
16- Nadal: 26.2
17- Monfils: 25.85
18- Wawrinka: 25.82
19- Gasquet: 25.3
20- Becker: 25.2
21- Thiem: 25.1

(Most spectacular drop = Ferrer, from top 5 to off the radar!!)

Service games won % on hard for 2016:
1- Isner: 94
2- Raonic: 93.8
3- Djoko: 90.7
4- Tsonga: 89.2
5- Federer: 89.1
6- Wawrinka: 88.9
7- Kyrgios: 88.8
8- Cilic: 88.6
9- Bedene: 88.1
10- Muller: 88
11- Murray: 87.2
12- Sock: 86.9
13- Karlovic: 86.6
14- Cuevas: 86.5
15- Querrey: 86.2
16- Lopez: 86.1
17- Nishi: 85.9
18- Monfils: 85.4
19- Vanni: 85.18
20- Johnson: 85.12
21- Delpo: 85
22- Simon: 84.9
23- Ferrer: 84.8
24- Berdych: 84.6
25- Fognini: 84.48
26- Agut: 84.46
27- Thiem: 84.43

Karlo out of top 10 wow, Berd sliding down, Rafa completely off the radar and let's be honest: Thiem's stats on hard suck. Kyrgios much more promising.
Players' serves tend to improve with age and adaptation. Fed, Nadal, and Djokovic all improved significantly between age 22-29 on serve, though Nadal has regressed.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Nice bump. Reading this thread and considering the times we are living, I realize it is high time to make space for this gem in my sig again!
Haha. I've got one of my own that @meltphace 6 also discovered in the bump a few posts above (the OP quickly retracted to his credit and seems now to respect Thiem quite a bit). Welcome to the Thiem signature club.;) Zeballos was a bit nebulus for me, but suits you to a T.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Ha ha. I didn't see the match. I did tape it but haven't watched it yet. I do know the results. As I said in another thread, if Thiem can somehow manage to beat Djokovic, I'll have a whole new appreciation for him but I don't think he will do it. Not yet.
Your optimistic skepticism is quite refreshing and I do greatly enjoy all of your comments and your admoninations. I've yet to decide if this is in the cards today. Goffin was oh so close to putting Thiem away I hope you enjoy the turning point in the replay and gain an appreciation for The Clay Destoryer (my new ridiculous nickname for Thiem that will go on the shelf til next year in a few days.) Quite the day for Thiem leaping to ATP 7. He was screwed with his draws this entire season and has taken advantage of this break nicely. He's a contender at this point. I may have to upgrade my cc signature if he wins the event to your dark horse related comment.;) no better time than the present.. haha Nostradamus is gone... now you've got two signature worthy comments.
tiphat.gif
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Your optimistic skepticism is quite refreshing and I do greatly enjoy all of your comments and your admoninations. I've yet to decide if this is in the cards today. Goffin was oh so close to putting Thiem away I hope you enjoy the turning point in the replay and gain an appreciation for The Clay Destoryer (my new ridiculous nickname for Thiem that will go on the shelf til next year in a few days.) Quite the day for Thiem leaping to ATP 7. He was screwed with his draws this entire season and has taken advantage of this break nicely. He's a contender at this point. I may have to upgrade my cc signature if he wins the event to your dark horse related comment.;) no better time than the present.. haha Nostradamus is gone... now you've got two signature worthy comments.
tiphat.gif

I'm flattered--two of my comments in your signature? ;) The young generation has been incompetent. As I said, if Thiem can beat Djokovic and then go on and win the event I'll change my view about him. Or even if he knocks Djokovic out and loses in the final, that's ok too. ;) I just don't think he's ready to beat Djokovic. We'll find out soon.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
I'm flattered--two of my comments in your signature? ;) The young generation has been incompetent. As I said, if Thiem can beat Djokovic and then go on and win the event I'll change my view about him. Or even if he knocks Djokovic out and loses in the final, that's ok too. ;) I just don't think he's ready to beat Djokovic. We'll find out soon.
Glad your flattered. I just put the Goffin vs Thiem highlights with full 2nd set breaker in the Djoko vs Thiem match thread just in case you can't watch your full replay.;)
 

Nonsense

Hall of Fame
EDIT: After the ATP updated the stats page on Tuesday, Thiem jumped many spots in all categories -- he didn't stay in place or drop in any of them. Based on the new rankings, Thiem's stats are at least as impressive as the 9th ranked player, Jo-Willy. Although Thiem is still significantly less impressive statistically than Berdych or anyone higher, I think Thiem is definitely a threat to move into the 8-10 range. This would have been my conclusion had the ATP's site been updated as I expected on Monday. I think Thiem is a threat at the big clay tournaments, but does not present a consistent threat to the players currently ranked 1-7, and I would add Raonic and probably Kyrgios to that list. That aspect of my original conclusion remains unchanged at this point.

Funnily enough Thiem is now top-7! I do agree that he needs more top 10 wins and especially needs to get one on hard courts as he's had 0 of those.

His draw here has been kind, but that's where the real fun begins for him. He's already 7th and basically has no points do defend in the 2nd half of the season at the major events:

- Didn't play Wimbledon, 1st round of USO
- 1st Round at Canada, 1st round at Cincy, 2nd round at Shanghai, didn't play Paris.
- 2690 of his 3105 points have been already acquired this year, so he's defending a measly 425 points the rest of the year.

He could legitimately be higher than Nishikori at the end of the year and close to Nadal/Wawa even.
 
He could legitimately be higher than Nishikori at the end of the year and close to Nadal/Wawa even.

I think Federer will be easier to pass in the rankings this year than either Nadal or Wawrinka will be. Just look at the race points, Federer isnt even top 10 right now. While his better part of the year is coming I highly doubt he is going to defend all his points from last year after being injured alot of the year so far (finals of Wimbledon, Cincinnati title, U.S Open final, WTF final all to defend, with suspect health, fitness, and no momentum going right now, good luck). I do think he has a shot at Nadal too though, who probably wont be collecting as many points in the 2nd half of the year relative to the 1st half (as usual).

Basically the highest I could see him reaching this year is 4th behind Djokovic,Murray and Stan, although if he somehow wins the title I might change my mind on that. He could be anywhere from 4th to 7th at years end I think.
 
Ha ha. I didn't see the match. I did tape it but haven't watched it yet. I do know the results. As I said in another thread, if Thiem can somehow manage to beat Djokovic, I'll have a whole new appreciation for him but I don't think he will do it. Not yet.

You do have to admit already though I was right in my pre tournament claim that Thiem was more of a contender for RG than either Federer or Raonic, which you disputed at the time. Federer didnt even play it turns out, Raonic did and didnt even reach the quarters as I expected he wouldnt, but it is clear Thiem was a bigger chance of ever winning the title this year, and more realistically of going quite deep, than either of those were, whether he ultimately does win it (I still highly doubt it btw) or not. He was atleast the 5th contender for the title which is where I had him, but which sent you into spasms at the time.

At Wimbledon I think Raonic and Federer (if he plays) are bigger contenders than Thiem right now, but not at Roland Garros.
 

Nonsense

Hall of Fame
I think Federer will be easier to pass in the rankings this year than either Nadal or Wawrinka will be. Just look at the race points, Federer isnt even top 10 right now. While his better part of the year is coming I highly doubt he is going to defend all his points from last year after being injured alot of the year so far (finals of Wimbledon, Cincinnati title, U.S Open final, WTF final all to defend, with suspect health, fitness, and no momentum going right now, good luck). I do think he has a shot at Nadal too though, who probably wont be collecting as many points in the 2nd half of the year relative to the 1st half (as usual).

Basically the highest I could see him reaching this year is 4th behind Djokovic,Murray and Stan, although if he somehow wins the title I might change my mind on that. He could be anywhere from 4th to 7th at years end I think.

Fed's a bit of a wildcard and he's usually very good in the 2nd half of the season. Nadal isn't.

And they're both injured-ish anyway.

Nadal:
- Has 2930 points this year, and is defending 2475 over the rest of the year.
- Big points WTF 600, Shanghai - 360, Hamburg 500, Basel, 300, Beijing 300, Stuttgart - 250
- Nadal is a bit more secure as long as he returns by the Hard court season. Stuttgart will likely fall off soon, but nothing else in there that is too concerning.

Federer:

- Has 1140 points thi year, defending 5515 over the rest of the year
- Big points at Wimbledon 1200, USO 1200, WTF - 1000, Cincy 1000, Basel 500, Halle 500
- Federer has huge issues really with the tournaments he has to defend. At best he can hope to replicate last season's form

So, yeah, I do agree that Stan will end the season ranked 3rd likely. Thiem at 4th is unlikely, but possible.

Kei at 4th?
-
2680 points this year, defending 1610 points only for the rest of the season
- Big points at Canada 360, Washington 500.
I think Kei ends the season ranked 4th if he gets his act together at slams. He is defending a total of 55 points at the last two slams (45 at Wimbledon and 10 at USO) which is laughably sad compared to Fed's 2400! He's 4th in the race currently and it's really hard to have a worse second half of the season for him than the one he had last season.

I'd say Kei at 4th, Thiem to finish sandwiched between Fedal.
 
Fed's a bit of a wildcard and he's usually very good in the 2nd half of the season. Nadal isn't.

And they're both injured-ish anyway.

Nadal:
- Has 2930 points this year, and is defending 2475 over the rest of the year.
- Big points WTF 600, Shanghai - 360, Hamburg 500, Basel, 300, Beijing 300, Stuttgart - 250
- Nadal is a bit more secure as long as he returns by the Hard court season. Stuttgart will likely fall off soon, but nothing else in there that is too concerning.

Federer:

- Has 1140 points thi year, defending 5515 over the rest of the year
- Big points at Wimbledon 1200, USO 1200, WTF - 1000, Cincy 1000, Basel 500, Halle 500
- Federer has huge issues really with the tournaments he has to defend. At best he can hope to replicate last season's form

So, yeah, I do agree that Stan will end the season ranked 3rd likely. Thiem at 4th is unlikely, but possible.

Kei at 4th?
-
2680 points this year, defending 1610 points only for the rest of the season
- Big points at Canada 360, Washington 500.
I think Kei ends the season ranked 4th if he gets his act together at slams. He is defending a total of 55 points at the last two slams (45 at Wimbledon and 10 at USO) which is laughably sad compared to Fed's 2400! He's 4th in the race currently and it's really hard to have a worse second half of the season for him than the one he had last season.

I'd say Kei at 4th, Thiem to finish sandwiched between Fedal.

Yes I see something like:

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Wawrinka
4. Nishikori
5. Federer/Nadal/Thiem, order up in the air, but if forced to guess now I would guess 5)Thiem, 6)Nadal, 7)Federer

That is based on my belief Wawrinka will atleast be in the final here though. If he loses to Murray in the semis tommorow (which I dont expect) he becomes more vurnerable as his best part of the season is probably already done too.
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
I always knew this thread will gonna receive a worthy bump sooner or later. Hopefully this is just first one out of many of those in future! :)
 

bjsnider

Hall of Fame
Funnily enough Thiem is now top-7! I do agree that he needs more top 10 wins and especially needs to get one on hard courts as he's had 0 of those.

His draw here has been kind, but that's where the real fun begins for him. He's already 7th and basically has no points do defend in the 2nd half of the season at the major events:

- Didn't play Wimbledon, 1st round of USO
- 1st Round at Canada, 1st round at Cincy, 2nd round at Shanghai, didn't play Paris.
- 2690 of his 3105 points have been already acquired this year, so he's defending a measly 425 points the rest of the year.

He could legitimately be higher than Nishikori at the end of the year and close to Nadal/Wawa even.
I did not forsee Berdych's disastrous results, since he's usually so consistent. It must be all Valverdu's fault, yeah?
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
You do have to admit already though I was right in my pre tournament claim that Thiem was more of a contender for RG than either Federer or Raonic, which you disputed at the time. Federer didnt even play it turns out, Raonic did and didnt even reach the quarters as I expected he wouldnt, but it is clear Thiem was a bigger chance of ever winning the title this year, and more realistically of going quite deep, than either of those were, whether he ultimately does win it (I still highly doubt it btw) or not. He was atleast the 5th contender for the title which is where I had him, but which sent you into spasms at the time.

At Wimbledon I think Raonic and Federer (if he plays) are bigger contenders than Thiem right now, but not at Roland Garros.

Honestly, for me Thiem isn't that great. He benefited from a really favorable draw with Nadal and Tsonga injured. Until he can start to beat the top ten players consistently to win big titles, I'm not sold on him.
 
Honestly, for me Thiem isn't that great. He benefited from a really favorable draw with Nadal and Tsonga injured. Until he can start to beat the top ten players consistently to win big titles, I'm not sold on him.

I am not sold on him either. I just felt the 5th strongest contender for RG was perfectly accurate. I still say that after today. He was always more of a contender for RG than Federer (even had he played) or Raonic this year, which you strongly opposed when we argued about it about a month ago. You overrated Raonic on clay as well, I remember you pencilling him into the quarters as if it were a guarantee, and thinking he was a contender to perhaps even go further than that, but he went out easily to some nobody I never heard of, and that same person then went on to lose to a really subpar Warwinka who has been weak at this event. I am pleased with Raonic's progress this year, but he is no clay courter, and probably never will be. Clay season and Roland Garros will be the meaningless stage of his season every year ala Sampras, and back to his real chances on grass and hard courts. Raonic and 0lderer (if semi fit) are stronger contenders for Wimbledon and maybe the U.S open than Thiem at this point, but not Roland Garros.

I do agree he has a crazy fan base on here who drastically overrate him at this point. No arguments there. It was laughable some thought he had anymore than a 15% shot to beat Djokovic today (although it was a bit more one sided than I believed it would be).
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
I am not sold on him either. I just felt the 5th strongest contender for RG was perfectly accurate. I still say that after today. He was always more of a contender for RG than Federer (even had he played) or Raonic this year, which you strongly opposed when we argued about it about a month ago. You overrated Raonic on clay as well, I remember you pencilling him into the quarters as if it were a guarantee, and thinking he was a contender to perhaps even go further than that, but he went out easily to some nobody I never heard of, and that same person then went on to lose to a really subpar Warwinka who has been weak at this event. I am pleased with Raonic's progress this year, but he is no clay courter, and probably never will be. Clay season and Roland Garros will be the meaningless stage of his season every year ala Sampras, and back to his real chances on grass and hard courts. Raonic and 0lderer (if semi fit) are stronger contenders for Wimbledon and maybe the U.S open than Thiem at this point, but not Roland Garros.

I do agree he has a crazy fan base on here who drastically overrate him at this point. No arguments there. It was laughable some thought he had anymore than a 15% shot to beat Djokovic today (although it was a bit more one sided than I believed it would be).

Honestly, I'm not sure Thiem is more of a contender on clay than an even injured Roger or a normal playing Raonic. I also think an uninjured Roger would not lose to this Thiem on clay even a 35 year old Roger. Thiem got lucky with his draw, plain and simple. He is going to have to do a lot more on clay to convince me he is able to beat the best players. Who has Thiem beat on clay in this tournament? A bunch of mugs basically whereas Raonic has done much better at the Masters 1000 clay events. I agree however that clay will never be Raonic's best surface. For now, Raonic has proven himself much more than Thiem has on all surfaces. Let's see if Thiem can keep his ranking moving forward. Will he be able to beat top ten players day in and day out? That's what I need to see to be sold on him.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Honestly, I'm not sure Thiem is more of a contender on clay than an even injured Roger or a normal playing Raonic. I also think an uninjured Roger would not lose to this Thiem on clay even a 35 year old Roger. Thiem got lucky with his draw, plain and simple. He is going to have to do a lot more on clay to convince me he is able to beat the best players. Who has Thiem beat on clay in this tournament? A bunch of mugs basically whereas Raonic has done much better at the Masters 1000 clay events. I agree however that clay will never be Raonic's best surface. For now, Raonic has proven himself much more than Thiem has on all surfaces. Let's see if Thiem can keep his ranking moving forward. Will he be able to beat top ten players day in and day out? That's what I need to see to be sold on him.
It wouldn't surprise me if Raonic passes Thiem in the rankings this year. Current race rankings (top 8):
Novak Djokovic 29 SRB 5/22/1987 5950 0 1200 1200 0 7150
Andy Murray 29 GBR 5/15/1987 3525 0 1200 1200 0 4725
Rafael Nadal 30 ESP 6/3/1986 2840 0 90 90 0 2930
Kei Nishikori 26 JPN 12/29/1989 2500 0 180 180 0 2680
Dominic Thiem 22 AUT 9/3/1993 1880 1 720 720 0 2600
Milos Raonic 25 CAN 12/27/1990 2155 -1 180 180 0 2335
Stan Wawrinka 31 SUI 3/28/1985 1605 1 720 720 0 2325
David Goffin 25 BEL 12/7/1990 1365 1 360 360 0 1725

I wouldn't call Goffin or Zverev (25th in race) "mugs". Raonic got a lot of his points around the Australian Open and on hard courts. He's not even close to Thiem on clay. I'd be surprised if Raonic could beat Zverev on clay for that matter. Hard courts and grass are another matter. Thiem would have a shot against Raonic on hard courts as speed is the one thing Raonic does not handle well. Kyrgios beat Raonic on clay even. We'll just have to wait for these matches. Raonic won Brisbane this year (ATP 250) and Thiem won Acapulco (ATP 500). Best get used to Thiem in the top 8. He's only defending 500 points until the end of the year.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
It wouldn't surprise me if Raonic passes Thiem in the rankings this year. Current race rankings (top 8):
Novak Djokovic 29 SRB 5/22/1987 5950 0 1200 1200 0 7150
Andy Murray 29 GBR 5/15/1987 3525 0 1200 1200 0 4725
Rafael Nadal 30 ESP 6/3/1986 2840 0 90 90 0 2930
Kei Nishikori 26 JPN 12/29/1989 2500 0 180 180 0 2680
Dominic Thiem 22 AUT 9/3/1993 1880 1 720 720 0 2600
Milos Raonic 25 CAN 12/27/1990 2155 -1 180 180 0 2335
Stan Wawrinka 31 SUI 3/28/1985 1605 1 720 720 0 2325
David Goffin 25 BEL 12/7/1990 1365 1 360 360 0 1725

I wouldn't call Goffin or Zverev (25th in race) "mugs". Raonic got a lot of his points around the Australian Open and on hard courts. He's not even close to Thiem on clay. I'd be surprised if Raonic could beat Zverev on clay for that matter. Hard courts and grass are another matter. Thiem would have a shot against Raonic on hard courts as speed is the one thing Raonic does not handle well. Kyrgios beat Raonic on clay even. We'll just have to wait for these matches. Raonic won Brisbane this year (ATP 250) and Thiem won Acapulco (ATP 500). Best get used to Thiem in the top 8. He's only defending 500 points until the end of the year.

Of course Zverev is a mug relatively speaking. What has he done so far? Goffin was Thiem's only decent opponent in this FO imo.

Thiem doesn't have many points to defend moving forward so he should be able to prove himself and beat top ten players consistently. Until he does that, I am not sold. I doubt Thiem would beat Raonic on hard courts at the moment. But let's see how it all plays out. At the moment all of the young and younger guns are not good enough to challenge the Big Four players.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Of course Zverev is a mug relatively speaking. What has he done so far? Goffin was Thiem's only decent opponent in this FO imo.

Thiem doesn't have many points to defend moving forward so he should be able to prove himself and beat top ten players consistently. Until he does that, I am not sold. I doubt Thiem would beat Raonic on hard courts at the moment. But let's see how it all plays out. At the moment all of the young and younger guns are not good enough to challenge the Big Four players.
Correct. I rate Zverev highly on clay, not hard courts. He's already made a clay court final this year. He's not there yet on hard courts. I'll be interested to see Zverev's progress on grass this year. He's definitely serving bigger and usually gets near 70% first serves in play. He's quicker than Raonic or even Del Potro with tremendous tenacity. Zverev doesn't quite have the monster weapon yet, but both sides are very good and some rate his backhand excellent. Zverev is a moving target and will improve in the next couple years.

This is Thiem's break out year so to speak and we'll see if he makes any big leaps in the next year, but for now its more likely to be slow, steady improvements. With that top 8 seeding he'll keep adding to his points in the upcoming events, but I don't know how often he'll break through into SFs and Finals. The great think about the top 8 is he won't have to get through Nishikori, Raonic, or Wawrinka who are likely to be 5-8 in the big events. He'll still have his work cut out with 9-12 in R16, and Goffin, Cilic, Tsonga, and even Gasquet will be interesting depending on the event.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@Gary Duane @Meles @Chanwan @veroniquem @bjsnider @tacou

Guys great discussion. Please see the chart below. This is a very rich chart, and I will create a separate thread for people to discuss it in its own right. But for this discussion it has a couple of very clear implications. Which I've put below the table.
  • The table shows (%svc games won + %return games won) for every multi-major winner in the open era for which ATP has data since 1991.
  • It shows the numbers for the complete calendar season in which the player turned the given age.
  • Grey means not a complete season (e.g. Nadal in 2012, or any player in 2016).
  • Below the main table I take the averages for guys with 4+ majors and the average for guys with 2-3 majors. (excluding the incomplete seasons)
  • I compare these numbers to some of the up and coming stars. For the young guys I start tracking their numbers in the years when they hit 20 ATP matches.
iYlGnVn.png

(My wife thinks it was a poor use of 3 hours to put this table together. What does she know :))

Implications:

1. Historically, having a few years of 108 is a necessary but not sufficient condition to be a 2-3 major winner. That is, all 2-3 major winners have had a few years in the region of 108-110. But that doesn't mean that everyone who has had a few years of 108-110 has won 2-3 majors. I am thinking of the Tsongas, Berdychs and Ferrers of the world.

2. We don't yet know Thiem's ceiling!! Thiem is on a late timetable. He only played 20 ATP matches for the first time at age 21. This was due to injury and military service. But over the last two years he has a similiar trajectory to, for example, Kyrgios.

In other words, Thiem has done enough to suggest 2-3 majors in the future is plausible. But he has not yet done enough to suggest it is certain or even likely. Essentially he's done enough to suggest a long stay in the top ten is imminent and to warrant keeping a close eye on him.
Haha. Thiem at 110 and climbing for 2016.;) Its about ready to be Kyrgios time in the majors! Should have a shot at the next two. Plays Raonic on Grass at Queens club first round.
 
Thiem has had good results since the AO, winning a couple of titles and claiming some scalps along the way. It's tempting to think of Thiem as the next ascendant young star. I checked the stats to see if that idea is realistic. It's not. In key areas, Thiem's numbers are up a couple of percentage points against his career. Thiem's first serve percentage has spiked 8 points. Here are the 2016 numbers:

DLbIZZd.png

Career Numbers:

2udF1Hi.png

That's the good news. Here's the bad news. How does Thiem currently rank against the field in 2016? Out of the top 10 in every significant category.

1st Serve Points Won 39* revised Tuesday to 29
2nd Serve Points Won 18* revised Tuesday to 13
Service Games Won 33* revised Tuesday to 28
1st Serve Return Points Won 16* revised Tuesday to 11
2nd Serve Return Points Won 40* revised Tuesday to 26
Return Games Won 24* revised Tuesday to 17

Maybe Thiem is suffering from a skewed result due to a larger sample size than the field? True, Thiem has played many more matches thus far than most players. Perhaps the field has not regressed to the mean as quickly as Thiem?

One way to correct for that is to project Thiem's current numbers to the end of the season and then compare them to the field in the most recent complete season available -- 2015. How does that look?

1st Serve Points Won 24
2nd Serve Points Won 15
Service Games Won 25
1st Serve Return Points Won 8
2nd Serve Return Points Won 17
Return Games Won 12

Good numbers, right? Except we have to consider that the field is at a much worse disadvantage in this comparison than Thiem's large sample size puts him in 2016. They've had three or four times the number of opportunities to make mistakes. Certainly we can expect Thiem to regress in many of these stats over the course of 2016.

Quick Word about Thiem on Clay

Delimiting the stats to clay improves Thiem's rankings in the key stats, just not to something like dominant levels. Cuevas and Nadal are ahead, just to name two, and most of the field hasn't played the surface yet. Still, Thiem may be more dangerous on clay.

Thiem in the top 10?

Thiem is currently ranked 14. The numbers really don't say he can get much higher than that -- in fact it looks to me like he'll sink down into the 25-35 range at some point this season. The top 10 players typically have a few statistical categories in which they are also ranked in the top 10 -- for instance the incredibly important duo second serve points/return points won. Thiem is not close to the top ten in any key stat this season. Players don't have to be in the top 10 in every key stat -- just a few. Stats reflect why players happen to win matches -- offense, defense, serve, whatever the case may be. On what is Thiem hanging his hat? I hope for Thiem's sake he continues to have a great season, but he may have already peaked.

EDIT: After the ATP updated the stats page on Tuesday, Thiem jumped many spots in all categories -- he didn't stay in place or drop in any of them. Based on the new rankings, Thiem's stats are at least as impressive as the 9th ranked player, Jo-Willy. Although Thiem is still significantly less impressive statistically than Berdych or anyone higher, I think Thiem is definitely a threat to move into the 8-10 range. This would have been my conclusion had the ATP's site been updated as I expected on Monday. I think Thiem is a threat at the big clay tournaments, but does not present a consistent threat to the players currently ranked 1-7, and I would add Raonic and probably Kyrgios to that list. That aspect of my original conclusion remains unchanged at this point.
I'm no hardcore Thiem fan, but he has the potential to really make it into the top 4 in the future.
 

Supertegwyn

Hall of Fame
I generally think nothing is fixed in sports, so the narratives that "Thiem is the saviour of Tennis" or "Thiem will do nothing with his career" are both inane to me.

Let the kid play. He has promise, but a lot of people do. Maybe he'll be a great player, or perhaps he will flame out.

Any long term predictions at this stage are doomed to fail.
 

SirAMD

Rookie
All that training in the woods made him a Super Human!!! I dont see him tired after so many matches and like he said, he prefer playing matches because he suffers less then training!!!

For me, Thiem will stay Top5 in the next years...
 

Frost5541

Professional
All that training in the woods made him a Super Human!!! I dont see him tired after so many matches and like he said, he prefer playing matches because he suffers less then training!!!

For me, Thiem will stay Top5 in the next years...
I believe he can topple the likes of andy and roger and even Djokovic but needs more training. in the next 1 year, I can see him in the no.1 spot because of his dedication and hardwork towards the sport.
Lol, Thiem barely has to do anything to have a better career than Dimitrov.
Dimi highest ranking: 8, with 4 titles
Thiem highest ranking: 7 with 7 titles
haha! dimitrov... is dead... there is no comparison. dimitrov WAS (lol) a great player but not a very keen one. yes he is good at entertaining and playing, he needs more focus.
 
D

Deleted member 21996

Guest
Hey... This is my irrelevant stat. Show me yours Now. I win, you lose
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
He was 7th just a week ago :O

Did his Stuttgart run propel him to 4th?
Their is official ranking that comes out Monday after most tournaments. Live rankings that show the rankings from day to day. ATP race is updated every Monday and shows the points accumulated for the year so far and is what is used to determine the top 8 for the tour finals at the end of the year. With the final in Stuttgart Thiem has moved up to 4 in the live race. Federer is at 12 in the live race. Only Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray are currently ahead of Thiem. Thiem may pass Nadal within the week, but Nishikori is not far behind Thiem.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Talk about reality check.. the OP needs a serious one now.
It once again shows all this nerd statiticsism is a very limited way to look at a player's game and qualities.
Stats are very, very relative. You just have to look at the right ones. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you don't like stats), the grass season is too short to generate reliable numbers for the current season or even last season. And as we see with Thiem this year, his 2-6 record on grass coming into 2016 was a poor metric for predicting his play on grass.

Mixing stats with tennis knowledge can be helpful. Thiem's improved first return on hard courts is from a newer aggressive position near the baseline and some other refinements that maybe only his camp is privy too. You can see that in the numbers on hard courts. It only partially translated to clay because returning from far behind the baseline is often more effective and Thiem already had that shot, so Thiem's 1st return points up on clay up 3% this year. The hard court return is up a lot more than that; at least 6% from last year and 13% if you look at Thiem's last three hard court tournaments. That number is off the chart and it appears that on grass Thiem is doing all of his returns with this chip/bunt style backhand return on grass, both first and second. It looks like he is having some success with this on grass and its likely to get better through Wimbledon. You might not realize this without the stats. Thiem's improvements are very quanitifiable and the points stats help tell part of the story.
 
V

VexlanderPrime

Guest
Lol, Thiem barely has to do anything to have a better career than Dimitrov.
Dimi highest ranking: 8, with 4 titles
Thiem highest ranking: 7 with 7 titles
^ Dimitrov is more "never was" than "has been" but whatever dinky height he reached, he's definitely a has been in regards to that... Dude is mentally broken.
 
Now, can Thiem show up against a top quality opponent and win? This week at Stuttgart, he at least showed he wouldn't choke against a sub-par Federer. That's a positive step. That Roland Garros match with Djokovic, though... doesn't bode well for his emergence as a challenger. He has to do it, keep his head on straight, when facing one of the big three (Djokovic, Murray, Federer) playing well.
 
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