Thiem has had good results since the AO, winning a couple of titles and claiming some scalps along the way. It's tempting to think of Thiem as the next ascendant young star. I checked the stats to see if that idea is realistic. It's not. In key areas, Thiem's numbers are up a couple of percentage points against his career. Thiem's first serve percentage has spiked 8 points. Here are the 2016 numbers:
Career Numbers:
That's the good news. Here's the bad news. How does Thiem currently rank against the field in 2016? Out of the top 10 in every significant category.
1st Serve Points Won
39* revised Tuesday to 29
2nd Serve Points Won
18* revised Tuesday to 13
Service Games Won
33* revised Tuesday to 28
1st Serve Return Points Won
16* revised Tuesday to 11
2nd Serve Return Points Won
40* revised Tuesday to 26
Return Games Won
24* revised Tuesday to 17
Maybe Thiem is suffering from a skewed result due to a larger sample size than the field? True, Thiem has played many more matches thus far than most players. Perhaps the field has not regressed to the mean as quickly as Thiem?
One way to correct for that is to project Thiem's current numbers to the end of the season and then compare them to the field in the most recent complete season available -- 2015. How does that look?
1st Serve Points Won
24
2nd Serve Points Won
15
Service Games Won
25
1st Serve Return Points Won
8
2nd Serve Return Points Won
17
Return Games Won
12
Good numbers, right? Except we have to consider that the field is at a much worse disadvantage in this comparison than Thiem's large sample size puts him in 2016. They've had three or four times the number of opportunities to make mistakes. Certainly we can expect Thiem to regress in many of these stats over the course of 2016.
Quick Word about Thiem on Clay
Delimiting the stats to clay improves Thiem's rankings in the key stats, just not to something like dominant levels. Cuevas and Nadal are ahead, just to name two, and most of the field hasn't played the surface yet. Still, Thiem may be more dangerous on clay.
Thiem in the top 10?
Thiem is currently ranked 14. The numbers really don't say he can get much higher than that -- in fact it looks to me like he'll sink down into the 25-35 range at some point this season. The top 10 players typically have a few statistical categories in which they are also ranked in the top 10 -- for instance the incredibly important duo
second serve points/return points won. Thiem is not close to the top ten in any key stat this season. Players don't have to be in the top 10 in
every key stat -- just a few. Stats reflect why players happen to win matches -- offense, defense, serve, whatever the case may be. On what is Thiem hanging his hat? I hope for Thiem's sake he continues to have a great season, but he may have already peaked.
EDIT: After the ATP updated the stats page on Tuesday, Thiem jumped many spots in all categories -- he didn't stay in place or drop in any of them. Based on the new rankings, Thiem's stats are at least as impressive as the 9th ranked player, Jo-Willy. Although Thiem is still significantly less impressive statistically than Berdych or anyone higher, I think Thiem is definitely a threat to move into the 8-10 range. This would have been my conclusion had the ATP's site been updated as I expected on Monday. I think Thiem is a threat at the big clay tournaments, but does not present a consistent threat to the players currently ranked 1-7, and I would add Raonic and probably Kyrgios to that list. That aspect of my original conclusion remains unchanged at this point.