No, this year it will be "Reality Check on Querrey". I fully expect Thiem to be ranked exactly where he currently sits -- lower half of the top 10. He's going to be a very tough out on clay, disastrously awful on grass, and mixed on hards.
Like last year, Thiem needs to desperately pad his ranking on clay. Despite lacklustre play Cilic has now opened a 215 point lead on Thiem coming into IW. Thiem needs to outperform Cilic and catch him to have any shot of getting top 8 seeding for the Masters1000 clay season. Cilic is currently 7. Other top 8 contenders for clay season seedings:
1. Goffin is a scant 130 points by Thiem and in fine form, but is defending SFs at Miami and IW (720 pts) so little threat.
2. Tsonga looks to be showing at IW and is ahead of Thiem now by and is defending 225 points at IW and Miami. Thiem is probably better off with Tsonga playing these events as he's sure to not play several of the masters 1000 on clay with baby Tsonga due in April. Thiem could be ranked 9 and still be sure of top 8 seeding on clay.
3. Monfils is out of form and defending 360 points so little threat to Thiem.
4. Federer is defending nothing and only 70 points behind Thiem.
This is why Thiem has to catch Cilic to get back to 8 in the rankings; Federer is likely to pass both of them.
5. Dimitrov is back a ways from Thiem (450 points), but is only defending 100 points at IW/Miami. He'll be a huge danger to overtake Thiem even in the clay season where Thiem defends 340 points to Greegor's 20.

Dimitrov could easily make a final or win IW or Miami given his form. His likely ascension makes catching Cilic critical so Thiem stays in the top 9 and can slide into top 8 seeding with Tsonga and likely Federer don't play some of the masters1000 clay.
Thiem is in a real horse race on the Miami/IW swing and needs to best his two R16 results from last year hopefully beating Cilic along the way.
