Reasons why Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year

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BreakPoint

BreakPoint

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Reasons why Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year?

This is a thread for people to list and discuss their reasons why they think Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year (2009).

Let's keep it polite and cordial. No trolling nor flaming.

Here's my #1 reason:

Because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, beats Bjorn Borg's records. Federer tried to beat Borg's record at Wimbledon, but failed. Yes, he equaled it, but he could not beat it. He could not win more than 5 consecutive Wimbledons.

Same at the French Open. Nadal has equaled Borg's record of 4 consecutive French Opens, but he will not be able to beat it. ;)

Reason #2:

Nadal is tired from his long runs at each clay court tournament leading up to the French. He couldn't even beat Federer in the Madrid final in his home country in front of his home fans. He'll run out of gas again before the French final.

Reason #3:

Federer has regained his confidence after beating Nadal in the Madrid final so will challenge Nadal at the French this year. He also has a new strategy that has proven to work against Nadal on clay.

OK, so what are YOUR reasons why Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year? :)
 
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I also don't think he's winning it this year... but c'mon... reason #1 is just silly :)

I don't think he's in top form right now. And I think Nole and Fed have made significant advances on the Bull on clay. Can't wait!
 
I'd say because other players are beginning to figure him out slowly but surely. Just like it happened with Fed. But I think he's gonna win still.
 
Nadal is going to STEAMROLL every player that gets in his way after this loss against Roger. Dont be surprised if Uncle Tony really peals Nadal a good one and Nadal is out for blood at the French. I wouldnt want to play Nadal now at RG. Hes tasted defeat on clay this year and he is going to want that RG title even more. I expect Nadal to not even lose a set at RG
 
BreakPoint said:
This is a thread for people to list and discuss their reasons why they think Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year (2009).

Let's keep it polite and cordial. No trolling nor flaming.

Here's my #1 reason:

Because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, beats Bjorn Borg's records. Federer tried to beat Borg's record at Wimbledon, but failed. Yes, he equaled it, but he could not beat it. He could not win more than 5 consecutive Wimbledons.

Same at the French Open. Nadal has equaled Borg's record of 4 consecutive French Opens, but he will not be able to beat it.

Reason #2:

Nadal is tired from his long runs at each clay court tournament leading up to the French. He couldn't even beat Federer in the Madrid final in his home country in front of his home fans. He'll run out of gas again before the French final.

Reason #3:

Federer has regained his confidence after beating Nadal in the Madrid final so will challenge Nadal at the French this year. He also has a new strategy that has proven to work against Nadal on clay.

OK, so what are YOUR reasons why Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year? :)
Click to expand...

Reason #1 is silly
I'll take part of #3 (except Fed's confidence - he has almost none). I am a Rafa fan but I am not sure he can win again.
In regards to #2 - Rafa will be 100% - the same way he was in Madrid. When somebody else beats Rafa don't come up with "Rafa is tired".
Fed or Nole could win RG this year - they are close to Nadal's level this year.
 
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GameSampras said:
Nadal is going to STEAMROLL every player that gets in his way after this loss against Roger. Dont be surprised if Uncle Tony really peals Nadal a good one and Nadal is out for blood at the French. I wouldnt want to play Nadal now at RG. Hes tasted defeat on clay this year and he is going to want that RG title even more. I expect Nadal to not even lose a set at RG
Click to expand...

Would he steamroll Sampras if he had been playing at his peak now?
 
IvanAndreevich said:
I'm just asking a question. What I can't ask a question? :confused:
Click to expand...


I would have picked prime Pete circa 93-94 over Nadal yesterday at Madrid sure. Nadal looked awful and totally fatigued. Healthy Nadal no Pete cant beat him. Of course if you gave Pete 5 tries at the French against the same player I dunno. Hard to believe Pete would lose to the same player 4-5 years in a row at the same slam whether its Nadal arguably the clay court GOAT or not. Stranger things have happened in tennis. Pete was more of a fighter than Fed is
 
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but dont forget to consider the fact that the paris clay is much slower than mandrid
just want you guys to keep that in mind ;)
 
#1 Nadal might have been slightly injured (right knee).

From Yahoo tennis:
"He said his right knee is OK, but it acted up again on Saturday and has troubled him since November."
 
danb said:
Reason #1 is silly
I'll take part of #3 (except Fed's confidence - he has almost none). I am a Rafa fan but I am not sure he can win again.
In regards to #2 - Rafa will be 100% - the same way he was in Madrid. When somebody else beats Rafa don't come up with "Rafa is tired".
Fed or Nole could win RG this year - they are close to Nadal's level this year.
Click to expand...

Good and balanced post. There are some I see!
 
GameSampras said:
I would have picked prime Pete circa 93-94 over Nadal yesterday at Madrid sure. Nadal looked awful and totally fatigued. Healthy Nadal no Pete cant beat him. Of course if you gave Pete 5 tries at the French against the same player I dunno. Hard to believe Pete would lose to the same player 4-5 years in a row at the same slam whether its Nadal arguably the clay court GOAT or not. Stranger things have happened in tennis. Pete was more of a fighter than Fed is
Click to expand...

Pete made one French semi final in his entire career, and he was never exactly "good" on that surface. It's safe to assume that Nadal would have owned him at the French regardless of whether they played 1 time or 100 times.
 
Cesc Fabregas said:
You really have it in for Nadal and worship Federer don't you?
Click to expand...
If you haven't already figured it out, I made this thread because it would make no sense to make a thread asking for reasons why Nadal WILL win the French Open. I mean, the reasons are already pretty obvious to everyone, aren't they? So no need for a thread like that. That's why I made this one instead - because it's a much more interesting topic to discuss and I expect there will be many different opinions. :)
 
GameSampras said:
Healthy Nadal no Pete cant beat him.
Click to expand...

yes he can!

Pete Had the SERVE AND VOLLEY!

how can anyone hope to defeat true SERVE AND VOLLEY????

even on clay

Pete would ahve won in 2006

Nadal gave away the first set 6-1
PEte woudl have bagled Rafa first set

Kicked served him to tie break in the second, and won

in the third PEte woudl have let up Nadal would have made a strong come back- 6-3

4th set it woudl be edgy and cagey it would go to a tie break
in the tie break PEte's MUCH SUPERIOR SERVE and of course, KICKER mixed with TRUE SERVE AND VOLLEY

would take out NAdal and Pete would win a RG

very possible against NAdal

of course, Pete could never beat Roger at RG
 
BP valid reasons.....

But:

1: records are made to be broken

2: Nadal could recoup as he has in the past. His approach to winning the title was to keep his matches as short as possible to have enough gas for the final. He could have a tough one or two that will seriously decrease his chances.

3: We'll see how Federer's confidence is under the ever changing conditions in Paris.

I'm anxious to see what the draw will look like.

Your post reminds me of a sidebar in Tennis magazine (I think it was last year) where Brad Gilbert gave 5 reasons why Nadal won't win RG. Fatigue and injury (blisters and his knees) were the big ones. Then Nadal wins without losing a set....
 
The only reason i see is Novak and Fed join forces to take him down like they did in Madrid.
But Rafa will die on court to win that FO. Will be interesting
 
BreakPoint said:
This is a thread for people to list and discuss their reasons why they think Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year (2009).

Let's keep it polite and cordial. No trolling nor flaming.

Here's my #1 reason:

Because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, beats Bjorn Borg's records. Federer tried to beat Borg's record at Wimbledon, but failed. Yes, he equaled it, but he could not beat it. He could not win more than 5 consecutive Wimbledons.

Same at the French Open. Nadal has equaled Borg's record of 4 consecutive French Opens, but he will not be able to beat it. ;)

Reason #2:

Nadal is tired from his long runs at each clay court tournament leading up to the French. He couldn't even beat Federer in the Madrid final in his home country in front of his home fans. He'll run out of gas again before the French final.

Reason #3:

Federer has regained his confidence after beating Nadal in the Madrid final so will challenge Nadal at the French this year. He also has a new strategy that has proven to work against Nadal on clay.

OK, so what are YOUR reasons why Nadal will NOT win the French Open this year? :)
Click to expand...

I'm not so sure I'm with you on this one. I'm a huge fan of Federer, but I think this win in Madrid (will boost Federer's confidence), will be in Nadal's favor, because the pressure of winning every match on clay is off him. Similar situation in 2007 when Federer broke Nadal's 81 clay streak.
Although I think if they meet again at the finals of RG, it will be much closer than previous years. As to who wins... up in the air.
 
Your #1 reason should keep people from reading the rest of your post. Nevertheless,

Your #2: Nadal is getting plenty of rest right now. A 22 year old, fit, super athlete does not need a 6 month vacation in the sun to recover.

Your #3: Federer will not be playing Nadal, if Djokovic is in his half.

And the real reason is that Djokovic will knock off Nadal, as he should have in Madrid.
 
I'm no troll but I think it's very unrealistic to say Nadal will lose the French. Nothing is certain, but it's as close to 100% certain as it was last year, in my opinion.
 
GameSampras said:
Of course if you gave Pete 5 tries at the French against the same player I dunno. Hard to believe Pete would lose to the same player 4-5 years in a row at the same slam whether its Nadal arguably the clay court GOAT or not.
Click to expand...

Not that hard to believe.

The reason and only reason is Nadal and Federer are actually Borg's slaves and he has hired them to tie his records but not break them to make everyone remember him more and than have them look into how truly amazing he is and how much harder it was for him to the accomplishment with wood rackets and truly polarized surfaces..however his plan backfired and it brought up some unnecessary andre agassi talk.
 
King of Aces said:
Nadal wont win but rather Roger will lose it by beating himself and shanking the ball all over the place.
Click to expand...

Owned.gif
 
Illness and injury are the only reasons that could stop Nadal from winning.

Let's hope that doesn't happen.
 
I agree that Fed has a chance and so does Djoko but to rule Nadal out is blasphemy, i mean the guy has never even been pushed to 5 sets at RG,

Would be pretty cool to see Fed get it though
 
egn said:
Not that hard to believe.

The reason and only reason is Nadal and Federer are actually Borg's slaves and he has hired them to tie his records but not break them to make everyone remember him more and than have them look into how truly amazing he is and how much harder it was for him to the accomplishment with wood rackets and truly polarized surfaces..however his plan backfired and it brought up some unnecessary andre agassi talk.
Click to expand...
Yes, and remember that Bjorn Borg is only one man. It'll take two whole GOAT's in Federer and Nadal to break his two records, if they ever do. :shock:
 
If you know Nadal well, you will be sure that he will win RG. Nadal now is very focused, wants to start playing RG yesterday more than today, he is vey eager to win it and everybody know that:
MOTIVATED NADAL + KING OF CLAY= WINNING RG WITHOUT DROPPING A SET.

If he will drop a set it will be against Djokovic not federer and i am sure federer wont make the finals if he had Djoker in his half, Djoker is really far better than Federer on clay.

for Federer fans: just calm and stop living in elusions cause of the non significant win against Nadal.

AND INSTEAD ANSWER THESE Qs:
Who won the most titles from the start of the season?
Who won the most matches from the start of the season?
Do you still think Federer is number 1? UPDATE YOUR INFORMATIONS NADAL IS NUMBER 1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Just resolved or still.
 
No?? said:
I dont agree with BP regarding his points.

But its just nice to see a thread started by someone othe than a Naltard..

Its a nice change from all the childish crap in all honesty.
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BTW, I'm not saying that Nadal won't win the French Open. I'm asking people to think of any reasons why he won't win it, if he were not to win it. :)

Let's face it. The overwhelming odds are that Nadal will indeed win it. So people need to think out of the box to come up with scenarios on what could go wrong to cause him not to win it. :)
 
Nadal has a w`ek off to rest a little. He won't drop hardly any if any sets on his way to the semis where it will be nadal djokavich, Federer and somene else.

Fed could, Djokavich could, but I think Rafa will win it again.
 
Let me spoil the party. I cannot but think of every day randomness that Nadal has to face.

1. What is the probability Nadal won't get to Paris at all? (Air crash anyone?). Am i sounding so evil? ;)
2. What is the probability Nadal will not injure himself while training?

Assume that Nadal has made to french open in one full piece (and no food poisnoning and no car crashes while travelling to and fro hotel/RG, etc; you get the risk picture). Remember the fact he has done it for 4 years does not mean he will automatically do it again. Hell i am not even sure if i will make it home from work today. I could die in a number of ways before that!

(a) Prob(wins first round / given he has reached the courts) = 99.99%
(reason why he won't make it: he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 3rd set)

(b) Prob(wins second round / given he has won the first round) = 99.99%
(reason why he won't make it: he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 3rd set)

(c) Prob(wins third round / given he has won the second round) = 98.2%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 3rd set
2. Ivo Karlovic bombs him out of the court with abotu 100 aces in total)

(d) Prob(wins 4thround / given he has won the 3rd round) = 96%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 4th set
2. he is tired after 3 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF)

(e) Prob(wins QF / given he has won the 4th round) = 90%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 2nd set
2. he is tired after 4 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF
4. his whacks the crap out of his own right eye , while executing his funny around the head f/h. needs immediate medical attention. gets bagled as he cannot see balls hit to his b/h)

(f) Prob(wins SF / given he has won QF) = 90%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 1st set
2. he is tired after 5 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF
4. his whacks the crap out of his own right eye , while executing his funny around the head f/h. needs immediate medical attention. gets bagled as he cannot see balls hit to his b/h
5. suffers cardiac arrest)

(g) Prob(wins F / given he has won SF) = 80%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 1st set
2. he is tired after 6 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF
4. his whacks the crap out of his own right eye , while executing his funny around the head f/h. needs immediate medical attention. gets bagled as he cannot see balls hit to his b/h
5. suffers cardiac arrest
6. Fed serves like a machine)


Remember you are dealt only one sample path in your life. 1 in a million odd is not useful since you will not live a million times starting at the same point again and again.
 
^^ haha, some creative ones there.

How about a massive tectonic plate slide pushes Paris up to about the same height as Madrid (assuming the altitude theory).

On semi final day, Nadal gets super tired waiting for Djoko to serve. He wins 6-0 6-0 6-0 but his quadriceps are tired just waiting and waiting and waiting while Joko bounces the ball (no offence to Djoko fans here, just kidding)
 
Sentinel said:
^^ haha, some creative ones there.

How about a massive tectonic plate slide pushes Paris up to about the same height as Madrid (assuming the altitude theory).

On semi final day, Nadal gets super tired waiting for Djoko to serve. He wins 6-0 6-0 6-0 but his quadriceps are tired just waiting and waiting and waiting while Joko bounces the ball (no offence to Djoko fans here, just kidding)
Click to expand...

OTMPut said:
Let me spoil the party. I cannot but think of every day randomness that Nadal has to face.

1. What is the probability Nadal won't get to Paris at all? (Air crash anyone?). Am i sounding so evil? ;)
2. What is the probability Nadal will not injure himself while training?

Assume that Nadal has made to french open in one full piece (and no food poisnoning and no car crashes while travelling to and fro hotel/RG, etc; you get the risk picture). Remember the fact he has done it for 4 years does not mean he will automatically do it again. Hell i am not even sure if i will make it home from work today. I could die in a number of ways before that!

(a) Prob(wins first round / given he has reached the courts) = 99.99%
(reason why he won't make it: he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 3rd set)

(b) Prob(wins second round / given he has won the first round) = 99.99%
(reason why he won't make it: he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 3rd set)

(c) Prob(wins third round / given he has won the second round) = 98.2%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 3rd set
2. Ivo Karlovic bombs him out of the court with abotu 100 aces in total)

(d) Prob(wins 4thround / given he has won the 3rd round) = 96%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 4th set
2. he is tired after 3 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF)

(e) Prob(wins QF / given he has won the 4th round) = 90%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 2nd set
2. he is tired after 4 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF
4. his whacks the crap out of his own right eye , while executing his funny around the head f/h. needs immediate medical attention. gets bagled as he cannot see balls hit to his b/h)

(f) Prob(wins SF / given he has won QF) = 90%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 1st set
2. he is tired after 5 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF
4. his whacks the crap out of his own right eye , while executing his funny around the head f/h. needs immediate medical attention. gets bagled as he cannot see balls hit to his b/h
5. suffers cardiac arrest)

(g) Prob(wins F / given he has won SF) = 80%
(reasons why he won't make it:
1. he twists his knees changing direction when chasing a volley and has to retire in 1st set
2. he is tired after 6 five-setters
3. He discovers that his girl friend has been unfaithful to him. His tears blinds him when serving and result in 20 DF
4. his whacks the crap out of his own right eye , while executing his funny around the head f/h. needs immediate medical attention. gets bagled as he cannot see balls hit to his b/h
5. suffers cardiac arrest
6. Fed serves like a machine)


Remember you are dealt only one sample path in your life. 1 in a million odd is not useful since you will not live a million times starting at the same point again and again.
Click to expand...

HAHAH omg you guys are so creative... made me LOL :D.
 
Sentinel said:
^^ haha, some creative ones there.

How about a massive tectonic plate slide pushes Paris up to about the same height as Madrid (assuming the altitude theory).

On semi final day, Nadal gets super tired waiting for Djoko to serve. He wins 6-0 6-0 6-0 but his quadriceps are tired just waiting and waiting and waiting while Joko bounces the ball (no offence to Djoko fans here, just kidding)
Click to expand...

Hilarious.

And nadal cannot move because of a sore a**. He has been picking it 4 hours a day for nearly two weeks in a row.
 
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