Recent inflation of UTR ratings?

[Pctopcool]

Hi all,

Did you notice inflation of UTR ratings recently?

In the past month, my UTR rating (100% confidence) went up by one point for no apparent reason. All other guys playing in my league also experienced this. It seems there is a systemic inflation of the UTR ratings.

Did you experience this too? It could also be some guy in my tennis circle beat Djokovic in an exhibition

 

[travlerajm]

Hi all,

Did you notice inflation of UTR ratings recently?

In the past month, my UTR rating (100% confidence) went up by one point for no apparent reason. All other guys playing in my league also experienced this. It seems there is a systemic inflation of the UTR ratings.

Did you experience this too? It could also be some guy in my tennis circle beat Djokovic in an exhibition

My doubles UTR went up from 6.5 last week to 8.3 today. This normal UTR fluctuation in my experience.

 

[Pctopcool]

My doubles UTR went up from 6.5 last week to 8.3 today. This normal UTR fluctuation in my experience.

Wow, that is wild

 

[naylor73]

Mine has been around 6.9 for the majority of the year. No big fluctuations. UTR drops off matches after 12 months. If you dropped any bad matches, that would have a positive effect on your rating.

 

[Pctopcool]

Mine has been around 6.9 for the majority of the year. No big fluctuations. UTR drops off matches after 12 months. If you dropped any bad matches, that would have a positive effect on your rating.

My singles rating has been very stable in the past couple years. It just started going up significantly in the recent weeks. Most of the guys I regularly play with also experienced significant increases. So weird.

 

[mpnv1990]

Mine is up to 4.76, which is an all-time high for me.

 

[Moon Shooter]

My UTR had stopped updating as of about May 10th. I noticed it just included a game from last weekend. But it is still missing about 20 matches in between! I see that I am showing up in some of these matches for other players who played these matches but I am not sure if those matches effect my rating they just have me with my current rating.

So I suspect as the data finally gets added back in some of these numbers will be jumping around quite a bit.

 

[TennisBro]

I understand that you guys, with all due respect to you, are playing small leagues etc. So, your UTR ratings are important to you. The issues that some of you have mentioned here may be quite a bit more serious in the upper levels and in the top of junior ITF tennis where the teenagers depend on their college offers in the US. In a nutshell, UTR stinks as it lacks common sense and differenciates inadequately. Whether the top UTR office will ever get sued for lost opportunities remains to be seen.

 

[Roforot]

I understand that you guys, with all due respect to you, are playing small leagues etc. So, your UTR ratings are important to you. The issues that some of you have mentioned here may be quite a bit more serious in the upper levels and in the top of junior ITF tennis where the teenagers depend on their college offers in the US. In a nutshell, UTR stinks as it lacks common sense and differenciates inadequately. Whether the top UTR office will ever get sued for lost opportunities remains to be seen.

yes, for most of us, it's ego and bragging rights. If I were depending on it for a scholarship or invitation to a challenger tourney, that's quite a different matter. What is happening at the top levels of UTR?

 

[TennisBro]

yes, for most of us, it's ego and bragging rights. If I were depending on it for a scholarship or invitation to a challenger tourney, that's quite a different matter. What is happening at the top levels of UTR?

Teenagers in junior ITF are misevaluated which leads to a few issues in their lives; one is the tennis academies' perception of the young tennis talent, another is the sponsorships and offers from colleges with tennis teams. Your suggestion that WCs to bigger tournaments may be based on the UTR ratings is also to be considered.

 

[travlerajm]

yes, for most of us, it's ego and bragging rights. If I were depending on it for a scholarship or invitation to a challenger tourney, that's quite a different matter. What is happening at the top levels of UTR?

This is what’s happening currently at the top levels of UTR. Jenson Brooksby has climbed into the Top 3, ahead of Djokovic, despite having not played a match in almost 2 years. The algo loves him because his most recent 2 opponents from 2 years ago have climbed the rankings since then while Jenson was idle with dual ruptured wrist tendons. He even reached UTR World #1 with “100% reliability” a couple of weeks ago. He is the first known player to successfully defeat the UTR algo all the way to the top.
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[TennisOTM]

This is what’s happening currently at the top levels of UTR. Jenson Brooksby has climbed into the Top 3, ahead of Djokovic, despite having not played a match in almost 2 years. The algo loves him because his most recent 2 opponents from 2 years ago have climbed the rankings since then while Jenson was idle with dual ruptured wrist tendons. He even reached UTR World #1 with “100% reliability” a couple of weeks ago. He is the first known player to successfully defeat the UTR algo all the way to the top.
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That is strange, though it seems like they have now corrected the issue of him appearing on the ranking list. Even though he is now rated at 15.89 on his UTR page, he does not appear on global rankings list that I'm seeing. The 15.89 is "36% reliable" and appears to be based on just 3 match results from the 2023 Australian Open.

 

[TennisOTM]

I understand that you guys, with all due respect to you, are playing small leagues etc. So, your UTR ratings are important to you. The issues that some of you have mentioned here may be quite a bit more serious in the upper levels and in the top of junior ITF tennis where the teenagers depend on their college offers in the US. In a nutshell, UTR stinks as it lacks common sense and differenciates inadequately. Whether the top UTR office will ever get sued for lost opportunities remains to be seen.

I'd love to look at some examples of what you are talking about. We've seen some strange UTR rating behavior for cases like mixed doubles players, injured players, and players with a small network of opponents, but those are inherently challenging situations to deal with.

For someone like a high-level junior singles player who has recent, frequent results from a variety of tournaments, high school matches, etc., I have a hard time believing UTR could be so bad? I'm willing to be proven wrong.

 

[travlerajm]

That is strange, though it seems like they have now corrected the issue of him appearing on the ranking list. Even though he is now rated at 15.89 on his UTR page, he does not appear on global rankings list that I'm seeing. The 15.89 is "36% reliable" and appears to be based on just 3 match results from the 2023 Australian Open.

He still appears on the app version on the ranking list.

He briefly dropped off the list 3 weeks ago, but then 2 days later he was reinstated.

His UTR ranking progress is being followed on the official Jenson Brooksby UTR thread.

 

[travlerajm]

I'd love to look at some examples of what you are talking about. We've seen some strange UTR rating behavior for cases like mixed doubles players, injured players, and players with a small network of opponents, but those are inherently challenging situations to deal with.

For someone like a high-level junior singles player who has recent, frequent results from a variety of tournaments, high school matches, etc., I have a hard time believing UTR could be so bad? I'm willing to be proven wrong.

A high level junior can ‘beat UTR’ by applying the Jenson formula.

As soon as he has an outlier great result at a tournament where he beats an up-and-coming good junior, he can then sit out for 6 months and watch his UTR climb while idle faster than it would had he kept playing.

 

[Moon Shooter]

Why is UTR still giving him a rating when he hasn't played in over 12 months. His matches shouldn't be effecting anyone else's ratings right?

 

[travlerajm]

Why is UTR still giving him a rating when he hasn't played in over 12 months. His matches shouldn't be effecting anyone else's ratings right?

His matches aren’t affecting anyone else’s ratings because there are none.

But his rating continues to fluctuate up and down with Casper Ruud’s and Tommy Paul’s because those matches are heavily weighted in his rating.

When Casper wins a big match, Jenson improves.

 

[Moon Shooter]

His matches aren’t affecting anyone else’s ratings because there are none.

He played matches at the AO 2023 and earlier.

But his rating continues to fluctuate up and down with Casper Ruud’s and Tommy Paul’s because those matches are heavily weighted in his rating.

When Casper wins a big match, Jenson improves.

So are the ratings everyone Brooksby played for the 12 months before his last match are effecting his rating but his rating is not effecting anyone else unless they also stopped playing in that same window? It seems like UTR is keeping track of several different "realms" of ratings.

It also seems he got lucky in playing a few up and comers before his injury.

"A high level junior can ‘beat UTR’ by applying the Jenson formula."

Yes it would seem easy to do, if you can predict the future. You just need to know who the up and coming players are as opposed to those who are hitting their own peak.

 

[TennisBro]

For someone like a high-level junior singles player who has recent, frequent results from a variety of tournaments, high school matches, etc., I have a hard time believing UTR could be so bad? I'm willing to be proven wrong.

That almost sounds like you are asking a question. The ones that sit in computerized offices with dark tinted windows their whole days more often have that "hard time believing" and seeing the world as it is.

 

[Moon Shooter]

I understand that you guys, with all due respect to you, are playing small leagues etc. So, your UTR ratings are important to you. The issues that some of you have mentioned here may be quite a bit more serious in the upper levels and in the top of junior ITF tennis where the teenagers depend on their college offers in the US. In a nutshell, UTR stinks as it lacks common sense and differenciates inadequately. Whether the top UTR office will ever get sued for lost opportunities remains to be seen.

Most here are not thrilled with UTR. It is just the best rating system tennis players can access. And by that I mean it predicts outcomes the best. I should say schmke’s rating system - which attempts to mirror usta can be pretty accurate as well.

 

[Moon Shooter]

That almost sounds like you are asking a question. The ones that sit in computerized offices with dark tinted windows their whole days more often have that "hard time believing" and seeing the world as it is.

Sometimes parents whose kids play sports have a hard time seeing the world as it is. Do you know a parent that is very upset with utr? If you do I bet bet $100 that it is *not* because UTR rates their child too high.

 

[TennisBro]

Most here are not thrilled with UTR. It is just the best rating system tennis players can access. And by that I mean it predicts outcomes the best. I should say schmke’s rating system - which attempts to mirror usta can be pretty accurate as well.

It is the best international system without a challenge; there aren't other choices but the WTN that the ITF players carry with their accounts. The structure favors EU/NA junior players that hang around wealthy accademies and play in sponsored tournaments there.

 

[TennisOTM]

That almost sounds like you are asking a question. The ones that sit in computerized offices with dark tinted windows their whole days more often have that "hard time believing" and seeing the world as it is.

Sorry for my rogue question mark. My question is: can you link to an example of an actively playing singles player whose UTR doesn't make sense?

 

[TennisBro]

Sorry for my rogue question mark. My question is: can you link to an example of an actively playing singles player whose UTR doesn't make sense?

Apology accepted. A bunch of names on the tip of my tongue but all juniors in ITF that I'd rather protect their young privacy. Some of the 15-17 year olds that don't train and play much in EU/NA have their UTRs "branded" based on locations. Picking up a few matches in M15/M25 Futures where they at times beat ATP players, with greatly different UTRs, slightly corrects off their ratings but that's not enough to compare to their peers in EU/NA. I get it's tough to evaluate starting juniors around the world equally but I reject the disciminatory statistical approach of UTR and the emphasis EU/NA clubs, coaches and uni recruiters in the US put on this rating of junior players. There are juniors who start building their UTR from the age of 14; if they are in a "wrong location" and play a few sanctioned matches against lowly opponents, their wins won't give them an equal recognition to the ones in the "right location"....that even tough the 14-year-olds get the same ranking world junior ITF points as their other peers that may end up with UTR over 11 while ranked lower than the "wrong location" juniors that get stuck at UTR 10 level. The point is that those "wrong location" junior ITF players have a steeper and higher mountain to climb than their peers from "right location". What's "universal" is the world ranking system in junior ITF, men ITF and ATP; taking UTR over the world junior rankings is unsound and bias.

 

[TennisOTM]

Apology accepted. A bunch of names on the tip of my tongue but all juniors in ITF that I'd rather protect their young privacy. Some of the 15-17 year olds that don't train and play much in EU/NA have their UTRs "branded" based on locations. Picking up a few matches in M15/M25 Futures where they at times beat ATP players, with greatly different UTRs, slightly corrects off their ratings but that's not enough to compare to their peers in EU/NA. I get it's tough to evaluate starting juniors around the world equally but I reject the disciminatory statistical approach of UTR and the emphasis EU/NA clubs, coaches and uni recruiters in the US put on this rating of junior players. There are juniors who start building their UTR from the age of 14; if they are in a "wrong location" and play a few sanctioned matches against lowly opponents, their wins won't give them an equal recognition to the ones in the "right location"....that even tough the 14-year-olds get the same ranking world junior ITF points as their other peers that may end up with UTR over 11 while ranked lower than the "wrong location" juniors that get stuck at UTR 10 level. The point is that those "wrong location" junior ITF players have a steeper and higher mountain to climb than their peers from "right location". What's "universal" is the world ranking system in junior ITF, men ITF and ATP; taking UTR over the world junior rankings is unsound and bias.

Thanks - I can definitely see UTR having a regional drift problem when there's not enough worldwide mixing of opponents playing in juniors. Players who have less ability to travel outside their home region might be the ones who end up drifting lower, even if UTR is not being intentionally discriminatory.

I would think that junior ITF ranking points system could also be vulnerable to bias - to the extent that not all tournaments have the same level of opponents to advance to the point-earning rounds. The non EU/NA players may rack up a lot of points by advancing to the late rounds of tournaments outside of EU/NA, but UTR is estimating that those tournaments should be given less weight because the competition was weaker. Can it be proven that UTR is wrong about that? Would be an interesting analysis for a stat person to investigate.

 

[TennisBro]

I would think that junior ITF ranking points system could also be vulnerable to bias - to the extent that not all tournaments have the same level of opponents to advance to the point-earning rounds. The non EU/NA players may rack up a lot of points by advancing to the late rounds of tournaments outside of EU/NA, but UTR is estimating that those tournaments should be given less weight because the competition was weaker. Can it be proven that UTR is wrong about that? Would be an interesting analysis for a stat person to investigate.

Just as the WTA or ATP tournaments may be affected in a similar fashion; some M15s, M25s, lowly challengers or even 250s may be poorly represented in some regions. So, it's a common occurance across the pond. The UTR powers desire the recognition that is unnecessary; and, may I assume that it is with ulterior motives. Now, I sense you'll come with another question which is what agenda can they possibly have? The answer is across a few fields out of which some are such as the development of young tennis players, sponsorships, higher education in the US etc. All in all, we have the world rankings for juniors, ITF men and ATP men just as the ITF women and WTA women which all should be respected no matter what and without the UTR nonsense.

 

[TennisBro]

I can definitely see UTR having a regional drift problem

I procrastinated on this one; I see some speculative coaching at some academies where some juniors are pushed to play some UTR sanctioned tournaments where they can improve their UTR ratings. This doesn't have to be in a weaker but stronger region too. I know of situations where coaches with their players literally use tournaments to improve their kids' rankings in the UTR. What I mean is that they seek higher rated players to play against for the UTR improvements. I'd say that's not just normal and professional but speculative in the NA/EU regions. I know you can say that that is what is supposed to be but there is more to it than what you read from my words here.

 

[Roforot]

Theres a thread in the general pro player about Utr ranking some teaching coach as the number 1 player ahead of Iga…. It seems that the lady lost a practice match against a male davis cup player who was utr 14 and this upjumped her rating.

Its pretty extreme, but I could see how an academy could manipulate things by having a challenger play a junior. Then the junior protects his rating.

 

[travlerajm]

Theres a thread in the general pro player about Utr ranking some teaching coach as the number 1 player ahead of Iga…. It seems that the lady lost a practice match against a male davis cup player who was utr 14 and this upjumped her rating.

It’s pretty extreme, but I could see how an academy could manipulate things by having a challenger play a junior. Then the junior protects his rating.

I’m compiling a list of ways to fake your way up the UTR rankings. It would be fun to prove it out.

 

[Moon Shooter]

UTR still left out about 20 matches of mine betweeen may and September. Funny thing is those matches show up for some other players listing me as playing them. Those matches don’t show up for me. I reported it to Utr over a month ago. They started adding some recent matches but about 20 matches are still left out. That is the case for few people in my area.

Brooksby should not have a rating at all since he hasn’t played in over 12 months. If that is the case it clearly shows the system is broken. It is sad for tennis that a clearly broken system offers the best predictions.

 

[Roforot]

UTR still left out about 20 matches of mine betweeen may and September. Funny thing is those matches show up for some other players listing me as playing them. Those matches don’t show up for me. I reported it to Utr over a month ago. They started adding some recent matches but about 20 matches are still left out. That is the case for few people in my area.

Brooksby should not have a rating at all since he hasn’t played in over 12 months. If that is the case it clearly shows the system is broken. It is sad for tennis that a clearly broken system offers the best predictions.

My tournament matches and tri level matches show up, but so far none of my singles flex league is in UTR.

It doesn’t make sense that your opponent would have the match on their record but not you. Seems like the data is corrupted.

 

[travlerajm]

My tournament matches and tri level matches show up, but so far none of my singles flex league is in UTR.

It doesn’t make sense that your opponent would have the match on their record but not you. Seems like the data is corrupted.

Maybe it’s because the opponent was > 2 UTR units lower?

 

[Roforot]

Maybe it’s because the opponent was > 2 UTR units lower?

Possible... that's the weirdest thing about UTR is that it has my singles up around 6.5 whereas my doubles is 5.5. I haven't done anything to justify the singles rating; I played 2 singles matches this year before the flex league going 1-1. If they don't consider the matches b/c the UTR discrepancy, it's kind of a self-fullfilling prophecy... For doubles, I've done well in tournaments and leagues but it hasn't gone up over the year. I guess they may argue I'm not playing against high enough competition to raise my doubles UTR.

Or perhaps you were talking towards Moon Shooter who's missing matches on his end though they appear to be recorded and are on his opponents record?

 

[schmke]

UTR still left out about 20 matches of mine betweeen may and September. Funny thing is those matches show up for some other players listing me as playing them. Those matches don’t show up for me. I reported it to Utr over a month ago. They started adding some recent matches but about 20 matches are still left out. That is the case for few people in my area.

I see 24 matches for you from May through September.

 

[Moon Shooter]

Maybe it’s because the opponent was > 2 UTR units lower?

No it was a stretch of time that utr did not pick matches from my area. And it wouldn’t make sense that it would show up on other peoples results but not my own. I’m not sure what is happening. I’m not sure if these matches are effecting my rating or if my rating is just changing because the people I played against earlier are having their rating change. I have been very disappointed with tennis rating systems.

 

[travlerajm]

No it was a stretch of time that utr did not pick matches from my area. And it wouldn’t make sense that it would show up on other peoples results but not my own. I’m not sure what is happening. I’m not sure if these matches are effecting my rating or if my rating is just changing because the people I played against earlier are having their rating change. I have been very disappointed with tennis rating systems.

All the rating systems have their strengths and drawbacks, so it’s better to use them as an aggregate to know where you stand.

 

[Moon Shooter]

I see 24 matches for you from May through September.

Yes but utr does not show any doubles matches under my profile between may 11 until September 22. Those 24 matches are missing. But if you look at the guys I played in state for 40 and over on august 11 I show up for them in their utr results but they do not show up for me.

Also look at my two opponents from my last match picked up on may 11 you will see a big gap in utr missing many usta matches that TR picked up. I have no idea what is happening. I reported it to utr and they said they would add the matches but it all seems like a giant cluster. Who knows what is going on.

 

[Moon Shooter]

All the rating systems have their strengths and drawbacks, so it’s better to use them as an aggregate to know where you stand.

Yes I think I have an idea where each rating system has flaws and can sort of fill in the gaps. The problem what I “think” is a flaw is just my subjective view. So if I’m going to just overrule the rating system with my subjective view why have a rating system to begin with?

 

[travlerajm]

Yes I think I have an idea where each rating system has flaws and can sort of fill in the gaps. The problem what I “think” is a flaw is just my subjective view. So if I’m going to just overrule the rating system with my subjective view why have a rating system to begin with?

You could just assume that all have built in sources of error, but in different ways. So you could average them into a composite rating and have high confidence.

 

[Moon Shooter]

You could just assume that all have built in sources of error, but in different ways. So you could average them into a composite rating and have high confidence.

For that to make sense you would need to be able to know how to convert utr tr/ntrp and wtn. I think I can do that pretty well with utr and tr/ntrp but I’m not so sure of wtn.

 

[travlerajm]

For that to make sense you would need to be able to know how to convert utr tr/ntrp and wtn. I think I can do that pretty well with utr and tr/ntrp but I’m not so sure of wtn.

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[Moon Shooter]

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Well according to that a 31-40 year old guy that self rates 3.0 is actually a mid 4.0 player. (27.2 wtn.).

 

[GrassCourtFan]

Yes but utr does not show any doubles matches under my profile between may 11 until September 22. Those 24 matches are missing. But if you look at the guys I played in state for 40 and over on august 11 I show up for them in their utr results but they do not show up for me.

Does it have two profiles for you, with some of the matches going to the other profile? I had that happen to me once, had to serve them a request to merge profiles

 

[schmke]

Yes but utr does not show any doubles matches under my profile between may 11 until September 22. Those 24 matches are missing. But if you look at the guys I played in state for 40 and over on august 11 I show up for them in their utr results but they do not show up for me.

Also look at my two opponents from my last match picked up on may 11 you will see a big gap in utr missing many usta matches that TR picked up. I have no idea what is happening. I reported it to utr and they said they would add the matches but it all seems like a giant cluster. Who knows what is going on.

I see the 24 matches on UTR.

 

[Moon Shooter]

Does it have two profiles for you, with some of the matches going to the other profile? I had that happen to me once, had to serve them a request to merge profiles

No it goes to my profile but the matches are missing.

I see the 24 matches on UTR.

It doesn’t show them in my recent matches in my profile. Nor did it show them in any of the advanced graphs when I paid for the upgraded features. I stopped paying for those features since it was missing so many of my matches. I are ther matches in June July and august when you click on my two opponent from my may 11 match? TD and GK? Their matches for those months are not showing up for me either.

Edit: Lol never mind it seems it added those later mates way out of chronological order. I had to look earlier then my February matches to see the missing matches from end of may through august.

 

[schmke]

No it goes to my profile but the matches are missing.



It doesn’t show them in my recent matches in my profile. Nor did it show them in any of the advanced graphs when I paid for the upgraded features. I stopped paying for those features since it was missing so many of my matches. I are ther matches in June July and august when you click on my two opponent from my may 11 match? TD and GK? Their matches for those months are not showing up for me either.

I looked you up by name, also looked up one of the "missing" opponents by name and navigated to you as the opponent, and both ways found the same profile and scrolled down on your results and see them all.

 

[Moon Shooter]

I looked you up by name, also looked up one of the "missing" opponents by name and navigated to you as the opponent, and both ways found the same profile and scrolled down on your results and see them all.

Yes I see that the missing matches from may June July and august are listed as coming before my February matches. I just didn’t scroll down enough.

Edit that seemed to happen to the other players in my area. When they added the matches they were out of chronological order.

 

[Roforot]

So your matches are all there and you feel good about utr? I dont have my flex singles in utr but it is in TR. But its possible they are 2 utr lower and not recorded… i don’t feel its worth paying to see the exact digits…

 

[Moon Shooter]

So your matches are all there and you feel good about utr? I dont have my flex singles in utr but it is in TR. But its possible they are 2 utr lower and not recorded… i don’t feel its worth paying to see the exact digits…

They added my matches and others for people in my area but they were recorded out of order. I’m not sure if that matters. The rating seems pretty much in line with what I expect although I do think utr in my area tends to rate women higher then the men for the same strength.

You can pay for utr for one month and see everyone’s rating. I am sort of a rating junkie and a captain of a few teams so I pay for it every now and then.

 

[Roforot]

They added my matches and others for people in my area but they were recorded out of order. I’m not sure if that matters. The rating seems pretty much in line with what I expect although I do think utr in my area tends to rate women higher then the men for the same strength.

You can pay for utr for one month and see everyone’s rating. I am sort of a rating junkie and a captain of a few teams so I pay for it every now and then.

Yes if a captain it can be useful… but I wonder if your eye-test is better? For ppl you haven’t seen play UTR or TR or WTN can guide you. But I would think you could predict better than the machine how the lines would do?