bjsnider
Hall of Fame
I am examining here second serve points won and second serve return points won. No data is available prior to 1991. Over time, these stats have become an increasingly important reflection of dominance. Through much of the 1990s, first serve points won was more important than it is today. First serve percentages are down from the 1990s. Service breaks are less frequent than they used to be, for whatever reason, and so defending the second serve and attacking the opponent's second serve has become the main strategy for tennis success.
Finishing ranked number one in both stats has been accomplished three times prior to 2008, by Agassi twice and Muster once. In 1995, Agassi captured the AO trophy, got to the RG QF, the semi at Wimbledon, and the final at the USO. He finished the year ranked number two and it was his greatest year up to that time. Agassi topped that in 1999, capturing RG and the USO, the Wimbledon final and the fourth round at the AO. He finished ranked number one for the season, the only time he did so. Muster's 1996 wasn't even his best season, which indicates again how much more important the second serve has become.
Nadal topped both stats from 2008-2010, and in that time won non-RG majors for the first time. In 2008, he beat Federer at Wimbledon, in 2009 at the AO, and in 2010 beat Djokovic to capture the USO. If Djokovic tops both categories again this year, it would be the second time in recorded history that the same player has done so two consecutive years, and the fifth time a player has led both stats in the past nine seasons.
Andy Murray is an interesting reversal of Agassi. Murray has no real problem with his first serve points. Those numbers are better than Djokovic and Nadal and just off the top guys like Fed. On the other hand, Murray's second serve numbers are very low. It's easy for guys to pressure that shot. Agassi defended the second serve as well as anyone, but in the 1990s there were usually 30 or more guys ahead of him in the first serve points won list. Agassi improved his first serve in his later years considerably, getting close to the top 10.
For Djokovic's dominance to end, either he will have to decline in one or both of these categories, or a young player will have to emerge excelling in both areas.
Code:
YEAR RET SV
1991 Bruguera Stich
1992 Agassi Stich
1993 Agassi Muster
1994 Agassi Chang
1995 Agassi Agassi*
1996 Muster Muster*
1997 Berasategui Rusedski
1998 Agassi Rios
1999 Agassi Agassi*
2000 Byron Black Grosjean
2001 Hewitt Roddick
2002 Gaudio Agassi
2003 Massu Ferrero
2004 Nalbandian Federer
2005 Nadal Federer
2006 Davydenko Federer
2007 Ferrer Federer
2008 Nadal Nadal*
2009 Nadal Nadal*
2010 Nadal Nadal*
2011 Djokovic Nadal
2012 Djokovic Federer
2013 Ferrer Djokovic
2014 Djokovic Federer
2015 Djokovic Djokovic*
2016 Djokovic Djokovic*
Finishing ranked number one in both stats has been accomplished three times prior to 2008, by Agassi twice and Muster once. In 1995, Agassi captured the AO trophy, got to the RG QF, the semi at Wimbledon, and the final at the USO. He finished the year ranked number two and it was his greatest year up to that time. Agassi topped that in 1999, capturing RG and the USO, the Wimbledon final and the fourth round at the AO. He finished ranked number one for the season, the only time he did so. Muster's 1996 wasn't even his best season, which indicates again how much more important the second serve has become.
Nadal topped both stats from 2008-2010, and in that time won non-RG majors for the first time. In 2008, he beat Federer at Wimbledon, in 2009 at the AO, and in 2010 beat Djokovic to capture the USO. If Djokovic tops both categories again this year, it would be the second time in recorded history that the same player has done so two consecutive years, and the fifth time a player has led both stats in the past nine seasons.
Andy Murray is an interesting reversal of Agassi. Murray has no real problem with his first serve points. Those numbers are better than Djokovic and Nadal and just off the top guys like Fed. On the other hand, Murray's second serve numbers are very low. It's easy for guys to pressure that shot. Agassi defended the second serve as well as anyone, but in the 1990s there were usually 30 or more guys ahead of him in the first serve points won list. Agassi improved his first serve in his later years considerably, getting close to the top 10.
For Djokovic's dominance to end, either he will have to decline in one or both of these categories, or a young player will have to emerge excelling in both areas.
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