pierceforehands
Professional
What are some records you thought were likely to fall at a specific point in time but still exist today. Some for me.
-Navratilova's Wimbledon record. At the end of 96 I would have said Graf was a near lock to atleast tie, but had an over 50% chance to even break. She was at 7, needing 2 to tie, 3 to break. There was seemingly nobody close to her on grass. The hot up and comer, who some thought would challenge Graf's #1 ranking before 97, is not great on grass, by far her worst surface (still clearly is despite that she did win a Wimbledon, had a shot at 1 or 2 others, and never won the French, as her two 1st round losses while world #1 indicate as well), and never seemed likely to be a big obstacle to Graf there, even is threatened her everywhere else and for the #1 ranking. Seles was not back to peak fitness or her peak level, and wasn't looking that near or likely to reach it, but even if she did on grass she had never proven herself a serious threat to Graf even at her very best (Seles's best ever performance on grass was a pre stabbing Wimbledon final that still wound up in a total massacre to Graf). Sanchez was becoming more dominated again in her rivalry with Graf by then, not only losing all their 95 and 96 matches, but not winning a tournament Graf was even in the draw those 2 years, and her epic Wimbledon final vs Graf in 95 looked like an outlier, as that is the surface she is least likely to threaten Graf on. Novotna, the 2nd best grass courter was Graf's pigeon, especialy mentally. Nobody was predicting the Williams to be contending for the Wimbledon title by 99/2000 at end of 96 either, in fact most still saw them as a joke rumor mill, that would probably never be serious, full time players on tour. Of course Graf wound up not winning another Wimbledon, mainly due to major injuries in 97 and 98 that nearly forced her into retirement before her actual late 99 retirement.
I do think many were thinking Serena may tie or even break it at the point she got to #7, but I don't think it had the feeling of high likelihood/inevitability it did with Graf.
-Court's Slam record. Again I (and I think most) expected this was 100% falling to Graf at end of 96, maybe even more obviously than the Wimbledon record as 3 Wimbledons at already age 27 is never a safe or certain guarantee, but atleast 4 more overall slams for Graf at end of 96 seemed super likely. She had won the last 6 she played, and there seemed be no even challengers on the horizon besides possibly Hingis, Seles if she got back to absolte full fitness, and potentially Davenport who began moving closer to being a real contender plus a tough opponent for Graf after her Olympic win. Novotna had a good 96, and looked like a potential contender going into 97, but as already noted was Graf's pigeon, and always seemed likely to only be able to win events if someone else took out Graf for her (as it turns out even her long awaited big titles at the 97 YEC and 98 Wimbledon, and her potential missed opportunities of big titles at 98 US Open, 97 Wimbledon, maybe 97 or 98 RG, were only when Graf was taken out for her). Sanchez ended 96 looking burnt out and washed up, with horrible showings post her upset 96 US Open loss to Hingis; her 97 surprised few people at that point, and the only surprise to anyone was her moderate resurgence to one last hurrah as a real contender in 98. I think atleast 90% of people would have predicted Graf reaching atleast the benchmark number of 25 at that point.
However this is a two part story as this applies twice. When Serena got to 23 is there seriously anyone who thought she wasn't getting to 25, despite her age? Even after her unexpected pregnancy she reached 4 slam finals, and was nearly everyones pick to win in all 4 (some called the Andreescu loss, but definitely none of the other 3), but lost all 4, plus some other times she fell in the semis people were predicting victory. Not only did she not reach 25 she didn't reach 24. Court's record remained unscathed, when it looked nearly certain to fall first to Graf, then to Serena.
-Federer's Wimbledon record. Honestly before the 2023 final did many people see this mark remaining the sole record? The vast majority of people felt Djokovic was the more likely winner of the 2023 final itself, a result that would already tie the record. I think most at that point figured the odds were good Djokovic would win atleast 2 more, and break it. Now granted this literally swung on that one match, as after losing the 2023 final, the feeling of certainty Djokovic was winning #8, and the likelihood of his winning #9, both diminished gigantically. Technically this record is still under assault as Djokovic is active, but 8 Wimbledons is looking safer all the time.
-King's combined Wimbledon record. She does not hold the record on her own now, she is tied with Navratilova at 20. However it seemed likely she would lose the record altogether, with Navratilova likely reaching 21. It did not happen, and it felt for quite awhile that it would, especialy when Navratilova was at 18 entering Wimbledon 95, and was a strong contender for both the womens doubles (playing with Graf, before Graf WD, many picked the Navratilova/Graf team to win) and mixed (which she win, reaching #19). Still going very strong in doubles and mixed at that point, regardless of partners, it seemed likely she would win atleast 3 more from the title, to gain sole possession of the record.
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-Navratilova's Wimbledon record. At the end of 96 I would have said Graf was a near lock to atleast tie, but had an over 50% chance to even break. She was at 7, needing 2 to tie, 3 to break. There was seemingly nobody close to her on grass. The hot up and comer, who some thought would challenge Graf's #1 ranking before 97, is not great on grass, by far her worst surface (still clearly is despite that she did win a Wimbledon, had a shot at 1 or 2 others, and never won the French, as her two 1st round losses while world #1 indicate as well), and never seemed likely to be a big obstacle to Graf there, even is threatened her everywhere else and for the #1 ranking. Seles was not back to peak fitness or her peak level, and wasn't looking that near or likely to reach it, but even if she did on grass she had never proven herself a serious threat to Graf even at her very best (Seles's best ever performance on grass was a pre stabbing Wimbledon final that still wound up in a total massacre to Graf). Sanchez was becoming more dominated again in her rivalry with Graf by then, not only losing all their 95 and 96 matches, but not winning a tournament Graf was even in the draw those 2 years, and her epic Wimbledon final vs Graf in 95 looked like an outlier, as that is the surface she is least likely to threaten Graf on. Novotna, the 2nd best grass courter was Graf's pigeon, especialy mentally. Nobody was predicting the Williams to be contending for the Wimbledon title by 99/2000 at end of 96 either, in fact most still saw them as a joke rumor mill, that would probably never be serious, full time players on tour. Of course Graf wound up not winning another Wimbledon, mainly due to major injuries in 97 and 98 that nearly forced her into retirement before her actual late 99 retirement.
I do think many were thinking Serena may tie or even break it at the point she got to #7, but I don't think it had the feeling of high likelihood/inevitability it did with Graf.
-Court's Slam record. Again I (and I think most) expected this was 100% falling to Graf at end of 96, maybe even more obviously than the Wimbledon record as 3 Wimbledons at already age 27 is never a safe or certain guarantee, but atleast 4 more overall slams for Graf at end of 96 seemed super likely. She had won the last 6 she played, and there seemed be no even challengers on the horizon besides possibly Hingis, Seles if she got back to absolte full fitness, and potentially Davenport who began moving closer to being a real contender plus a tough opponent for Graf after her Olympic win. Novotna had a good 96, and looked like a potential contender going into 97, but as already noted was Graf's pigeon, and always seemed likely to only be able to win events if someone else took out Graf for her (as it turns out even her long awaited big titles at the 97 YEC and 98 Wimbledon, and her potential missed opportunities of big titles at 98 US Open, 97 Wimbledon, maybe 97 or 98 RG, were only when Graf was taken out for her). Sanchez ended 96 looking burnt out and washed up, with horrible showings post her upset 96 US Open loss to Hingis; her 97 surprised few people at that point, and the only surprise to anyone was her moderate resurgence to one last hurrah as a real contender in 98. I think atleast 90% of people would have predicted Graf reaching atleast the benchmark number of 25 at that point.
However this is a two part story as this applies twice. When Serena got to 23 is there seriously anyone who thought she wasn't getting to 25, despite her age? Even after her unexpected pregnancy she reached 4 slam finals, and was nearly everyones pick to win in all 4 (some called the Andreescu loss, but definitely none of the other 3), but lost all 4, plus some other times she fell in the semis people were predicting victory. Not only did she not reach 25 she didn't reach 24. Court's record remained unscathed, when it looked nearly certain to fall first to Graf, then to Serena.
-Federer's Wimbledon record. Honestly before the 2023 final did many people see this mark remaining the sole record? The vast majority of people felt Djokovic was the more likely winner of the 2023 final itself, a result that would already tie the record. I think most at that point figured the odds were good Djokovic would win atleast 2 more, and break it. Now granted this literally swung on that one match, as after losing the 2023 final, the feeling of certainty Djokovic was winning #8, and the likelihood of his winning #9, both diminished gigantically. Technically this record is still under assault as Djokovic is active, but 8 Wimbledons is looking safer all the time.
-King's combined Wimbledon record. She does not hold the record on her own now, she is tied with Navratilova at 20. However it seemed likely she would lose the record altogether, with Navratilova likely reaching 21. It did not happen, and it felt for quite awhile that it would, especialy when Navratilova was at 18 entering Wimbledon 95, and was a strong contender for both the womens doubles (playing with Graf, before Graf WD, many picked the Navratilova/Graf team to win) and mixed (which she win, reaching #19). Still going very strong in doubles and mixed at that point, regardless of partners, it seemed likely she would win atleast 3 more from the title, to gain sole possession of the record.
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