Renowed Handicapper Not Picking Odds-on Favorite Rafael Nadal

Otacon

Hall of Fame
#1
The 2019 French Open starts Sunday with Rafael Nadal the even-money favorite to win his 12th title at Roland Garros. Novak Djokovic (11-4), Dominic Thiem (11-2), Stefanos Tsitsipas (16-1), Roger Federer (20-1) and Alexander Zverev (25-1) head the list of challengers in the year's second major.

The internationally-acclaimed tennis journalist Sean Calvert has been cashing consistently for six years and just took down a huge score on Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1! Calvert is known for making legendary calls like Stan Wawrinka to win the 2014 Australian Open at 60-1, and Jack Sock to win the 2017 Paris Masters at 80-1.

More importantly, Calvert specializes in Grand Slam events. In the 2017 French Open, for instance, $100 bettors who tailed him returned more than $1,600!

We can tell you Calvert wants no part of Nadal even though the Spaniard just won the Italian Open. That was the final clay-court warm-up for the French Open, but was only Nadal's first trophy this year.

"What I've seen through much of his clay swing is an older, slower version of Nadal who no longer looks capable of fending off an elite attacking opponent, and for him to lose to single-handed righties twice before Roland Garros is virtually unheard of."

"Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas have taken the game to Nadal with confidence and belief. They've hit him off the court, which must be damaging to Nadal's own belief that he can win another Coupe des Mousquetaires."

Given Nadal's vulnerability, Calvert is calling for the Spaniard to fall short of his third straight French Open crown.

So who wins the French Open? And which MASSIVE long shots could shock tennis? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Sean Calvert's detailed French Open men's championship picks, all from the international tennis expert who just called Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1!
 
#3
What I've seen through much of his clay swing is an older, slower version of Nadal who no longer looks capable of fending off an elite attacking opponent,
Wishful thinking, Nadal did not look significantly slower than 2017/2018 against Djokovic and Tsitsipas in Rome, who are by no means non-elite attacking opponents.

I respect people not favoring Nadal. But the argument in bold is incorrect. If Nadal looks slower, then Djokovic and Tsitsipas who were destroyed by him looked slow like the mummy.
 
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#4
Nadal is the favorite. However, unless he is the odds-on favorite, it is not wise to pick him at the odds being offered. It's more likely that he'll lose than that he'll win, but (much) more likely that he'll win than any one other individual will do so.
 
#5
The 2019 French Open starts Sunday with Rafael Nadal the even-money favorite to win his 12th title at Roland Garros. Novak Djokovic (11-4), Dominic Thiem (11-2), Stefanos Tsitsipas (16-1), Roger Federer (20-1) and Alexander Zverev (25-1) head the list of challengers in the year's second major.

The internationally-acclaimed tennis journalist Sean Calvert has been cashing consistently for six years and just took down a huge score on Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1! Calvert is known for making legendary calls like Stan Wawrinka to win the 2014 Australian Open at 60-1, and Jack Sock to win the 2017 Paris Masters at 80-1.

More importantly, Calvert specializes in Grand Slam events. In the 2017 French Open, for instance, $100 bettors who tailed him returned more than $1,600!

We can tell you Calvert wants no part of Nadal even though the Spaniard just won the Italian Open. That was the final clay-court warm-up for the French Open, but was only Nadal's first trophy this year.

"What I've seen through much of his clay swing is an older, slower version of Nadal who no longer looks capable of fending off an elite attacking opponent, and for him to lose to single-handed righties twice before Roland Garros is virtually unheard of."

"Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas have taken the game to Nadal with confidence and belief. They've hit him off the court, which must be damaging to Nadal's own belief that he can win another Coupe des Mousquetaires."

Given Nadal's vulnerability, Calvert is calling for the Spaniard to fall short of his third straight French Open crown.

So who wins the French Open? And which MASSIVE long shots could shock tennis? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Sean Calvert's detailed French Open men's championship picks, all from the international tennis expert who just called Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1!
Thiem going to win even if he has to play Novak in the Semis and Rafa in the final ?? or vice versa
 
#6
Djokovic is the best bet financially. Even money for Nadal not bad though.

As a Fed fan I might just put $100 on each. If Nadal wins I will make back the Djokovic money. If Djokovic wins I come out with some dough.

If neither wins, I just paid $200 to buy a loss for Nadal and Djokovic. Money well spent.
Thiem at 80-1, if I put down 10 dimes, how much would I win ??
 

Luka888

Professional
#7
If you have lot's of money and you are betting, of course you are going to risk. Thiem is not a bad option. It's a huge risk though. I'm not sure he can beat both Nadal and Djokovic, but bizarre things could happen if the draw opens up somehow.

I, personally dislike betting and I never do it.
 
#8
I got Thiem at 10/1 after Barcelona but I have Nadal at even money. I remember this guy also said Nadal wouldn't win RG last year and he was wrong.
 
#10
"Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas have taken the game to Nadal with confidence and belief. They've hit him off the court, which must be damaging to Nadal's own belief
Yeah, I don't know how Rafa will get over losing to Thiem before the French Open. Maybe like he does every other time Thiem beats him? Nah, Rafa's nearing the end. It'll also gonna be tough getting over losing a 3 setter to Tsitsipas. I know Tsitipas just lost in straight sets to Rafa, but that looked like a fluke. It's clear as mud, Rafa is almost done.
 

Ann

Hall of Fame
#11
The 2019 French Open starts Sunday with Rafael Nadal the even-money favorite to win his 12th title at Roland Garros. Novak Djokovic (11-4), Dominic Thiem (11-2), Stefanos Tsitsipas (16-1), Roger Federer (20-1) and Alexander Zverev (25-1) head the list of challengers in the year's second major.

The internationally-acclaimed tennis journalist Sean Calvert has been cashing consistently for six years and just took down a huge score on Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1! Calvert is known for making legendary calls like Stan Wawrinka to win the 2014 Australian Open at 60-1, and Jack Sock to win the 2017 Paris Masters at 80-1.

More importantly, Calvert specializes in Grand Slam events. In the 2017 French Open, for instance, $100 bettors who tailed him returned more than $1,600!

We can tell you Calvert wants no part of Nadal even though the Spaniard just won the Italian Open. That was the final clay-court warm-up for the French Open, but was only Nadal's first trophy this year.

"What I've seen through much of his clay swing is an older, slower version of Nadal who no longer looks capable of fending off an elite attacking opponent, and for him to lose to single-handed righties twice before Roland Garros is virtually unheard of."

"Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas have taken the game to Nadal with confidence and belief. They've hit him off the court, which must be damaging to Nadal's own belief that he can win another Coupe des Mousquetaires."

Given Nadal's vulnerability, Calvert is calling for the Spaniard to fall short of his third straight French Open crown.

So who wins the French Open? And which MASSIVE long shots could shock tennis? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Sean Calvert's detailed French Open men's championship picks, all from the international tennis expert who just called Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1!
I'm surprised at Rafa being only even money and Fed's odds being as good as they are. I still believe Rafa is going to win and still hope Federer can make it to the QF.
 
#12
I'm surprised at Rafa being only even money and Fed's odds being as good as they are. I still believe Rafa is going to win and still hope Federer can make it to the QF.
It's a reasonable line. My bookie has Nadal at -150. Typically my book will shade lines, so if you feel good about Nadal then that's a good sign. Federer is going to get action based on name alone and he's a champion. He's actually a fairly big dog given his name and pedigree but let's say Federer somehow gets to the final 4 and amazingly the three favorites aren't there. In that unlikely scenario, you'd have to give Federer a good shot to win simply due to who he is.
 

Luka888

Professional
#13
Never? I bet you do sometimes
I went to casino once when I was young. My best friend made me. I won $60CAD. I got lucky but I was bored there. We were drunk btw. It was after the bar hours.

However, that was 20yo ago. Another thing is I have a cousin who was very rich and very impulsive. He lost everything. He lost even his house. He couldn't help it. His wife left him. At he end he even borrowed money to gamble. He ended up in a small studio with nothing. Then he asked for some help. Horrible story.

So, no I do not gamble. I mean I could do it but I'm just not interested. The house always win at the end.
 
#15
I went to casino once when I was young. My best friend made me. I won $60CAD. I got lucky but I was bored there. We were drunk btw. It was after the bar hours.

However, that was 20yo ago. Another thing is I have a cousin who was very rich and very impulsive. He lost everything. He lost even his house. He couldn't help it. His wife left him. At he end he even borrowed money to gamble. He ended up in a small studio with nothing. Then he asked for some help. Horrible story.

So, no I do not gamble. I mean I could do it but I'm just not interested. The house always win at the end.
I bet you that you can’t go the rest of your life without betting

Will you take the bet? I’ll bet you anything and give you a million to one odds
 
#16
Djokovic is the best bet financially. Even money for Nadal not bad though.

As a Fed fan I might just put $100 on each. If Nadal wins I will make back the Djokovic money. If Djokovic wins I come out with some dough.

If neither wins, I just paid $200 to buy a loss for Nadal and Djokovic. Money well spent.
You’re lucky, my bookmaker has Nadal at 1.8 odds. Wouldn’t work for me.
 
#24
Federer at higher odds than Zverev? Yes I know Zed has been playing terrible the last few months, but putting Federer at higher odds is a bit much.
 
#25
Yeah, I don't know how Rafa will get over losing to Thiem before the French Open. Maybe like he does every other time Thiem beats him? Nah, Rafa's nearing the end. It'll also gonna be tough getting over losing a 3 setter to Tsitsipas. I know Tsitipas just lost in straight sets to Rafa, but that looked like a fluke. It's clear as mud, Rafa is almost done.
You’ve either misunderstood Culvert’s argument or you don’t understand it all if this is what you got out of what he said.
 
#26
The thing is even Rafa at 60-70% is enough to dominate the rest of the field unless someone pulls out an extremely inspired performance. It’s hard to imagine someone besides Djokovic doing that over 5 sets.

I see this as a Nadal vs Djokovic tournament with Thiem as a distant third. I’m still picking Nadal though, since even though Djokovic has gritted out some good wins recently he has looked vulnerable at times.
 
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