REVISED: Updated Open era achievment ranking system using current ATP weighting

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by timnz, Jul 19, 2015.

  1. 6-3 6-0

    6-3 6-0 Guest

    Only a fool thinks Djokovic is done until he himself comes out announcing his retirement.

    On a side note, don't forget the harrassment Federer had to take back in 2013 with all weak era talks and Fed was 2 years older than Novak is now.
     
  2. Djokovic2011

    Djokovic2011 Bionic Poster

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    I'm not quite sure what that last part has to do with my post 6-3 6-0.
     
  3. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    Be interested in your feedback. If you think I missed a tournament achievement - then please let me know. The main reason that Sampras is so far behind is that below his Slams and Season end final achievements he is far below most of the top players in every other metric. (11 Masters 1000's vs 25 for Federer - that's a lot. Slam runner-ups Federer has got 10 vs Sampras 4, 500 series Federer 17 vs Sampras 12)
     
  4. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    Why don't you agree? In my opening paragraph (in the 1st post in this thread): "This is NOT a 'greatness' index of Open era players. 'Greatness' is a subjective term (doesn't mean it isn't valuable), whereas the intention of this ranking system is merely to layout tournament achievements (500 points and higher) of the great open era players weighted at current ATP weightings."
     
  5. Sabratha

    Sabratha Talk Tennis Guru

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    Back in 2013 Nadal fans used to say Federer could only win 250s in a strong era.

    Little did they know one of their faves (Novak) would soon feast on one of the weakest eras of all time.
     
  6. Djokovic2011

    Djokovic2011 Bionic Poster

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    Nadal fans were Djokovic fans as well?! :eek:
     
  7. Sabratha

    Sabratha Talk Tennis Guru

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    They liked Djokovic more than Federer. :rolleyes:
     
  8. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    I think he will. 4 or 5 years ago or so - I predicted he would end up with between 12 and 14 majors. I still hold to that. Hence, if he wins another 2 majors - that is (2 x 2) and say another 4 Masters 1000 and throw in 5 500 series - that is another 10 points - bringing him to 104 or so. I think that is very doable for him.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
  9. Djokovic2011

    Djokovic2011 Bionic Poster

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    In 2013? Ooh I don't know about that Saby.
     
  10. Bartelby

    Bartelby G.O.A.T.

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    If you gave points for the Olympics, then you'd surely also have to work out a way of giving points for a Davis Cup win in the final?

    Looked at this way, there is really no problem leaving out the Olympics because both it and the Davis Cup, however great, are radically different competitions.

    And not just because they are run through the ITF. Their fields, most notably, don't follow an ATP or ATP-style system.

     
  11. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    What 46 points difference is misleading?
    All the calculations are correct unless you spotted an error.
     
  12. Bartelby

    Bartelby G.O.A.T.

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    The other important point about the Olympics is that it is continually subject to political pressures to ban countries for political or pseudo-political reasons.

    We could easily have a situation where the best tennis players in the world are forbidden from competing, whereas this can't happen in the ATP.

    Or, at least, it can't happen directly, but we should remember that the Meldonium ban was a product of the IOC and government-controlled WADA.
     
  13. Sabratha

    Sabratha Talk Tennis Guru

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    Especially in 2013.
     
  14. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    I think the Olympics are worth something. I think that since 2008 they are probably good for around 1250 points ie less than WTF but more than Masters 1000. However, because there is no universal agreed weighting system beyond the ATP - I am stuck with using it - and unfortunately that is currently 0 points. The Davis Cup is in a different category for me - it is a team competition - I am measuring singles achievements.
     
  15. Djokovic2011

    Djokovic2011 Bionic Poster

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    The impression I had at the time was that the vast majority loathed him with a passion 'cos they knew without him Nadal would be winning everything in sight and also memories of 2011 were still very raw.
     
  16. Sabratha

    Sabratha Talk Tennis Guru

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    But even with him around Nadal was winning pretty much everything -- and they could use him to prop up Nadal because, as you know, Federer crapped all over Roddick and not Djokovic.
     
  17. Djokovic2011

    Djokovic2011 Bionic Poster

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    You're right, I do recall many of them saying things like that at the time which wasn't really fair 'cos Djokovic's overall performance in the '13 USO final was certainly no better than Roddick played in some of the slam finals he lost to Roger back in the day.
     
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  18. Sabratha

    Sabratha Talk Tennis Guru

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    At least you understand name =/= form.
     
  19. Djokovic2011

    Djokovic2011 Bionic Poster

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    I do. I just wish other people on here understood it as well. ;)
     
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  20. Bartelby

    Bartelby G.O.A.T.

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    Yet another problem with the Olympics is that Chefs de Mission love to throw their weight around in the name of team spirit!

    Krygios was basically forced out of the Australian team because of his behaviour and yet the ATP tolerates him, minor punishments aside.

    This is yet another illustration of the fact that the Olympics and the Davis Cup are not sufficiently open to the entire field.

    Although to win them is a considerable achievement, they are quite unique competitions. Their peculiarities do set them apart.

     
  21. NEW_BORN

    NEW_BORN Professional

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    Yeah i get the fact that Sampras has won a lot less of the lower tier tournaments than some of the other greats but surely the difference in score between Federer and Sampras which i highlighted to be roughly the equivalent of 23 slams is not an accurate representation of Federer's greatness over Sampras.

    By several important metrics, Sampras is only marginally lower than Federer's -
    Slam wins 18-14 Federer
    WTF wins 6-5 Federer (Sampras does have 2 Grand Slam Cups though)
    Weeks at No.1 302-286 Federer

    I think for starters week's at No.1 has to be reflected in your rankings somehow.
    But i do appreciate your effort in compiling these date.
     
  22. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    You mention the top level metrics - but as I said this ranking system brings in everything from 500 points and above. The fact is that Sampras' achievements drop away after season end finals.

    Weeks at number 1 - yes, people have asked for this over the years - but I have resisted this for two primary reasons:

    1/ It is a kind of double counting ie people got the ranking due to their achievements - which I have already counted

    2/ The inaccuracy of the weeks at number 1 system especially prior to the mid-1980s (McEnroe was ranked as YE#1 for 1982 even though he had a third of the titles of number 3 placed Lendl (and not superior titles either). The fact is before the mid-1980s they didn't count everything. YE Number 1's is a more accurate measure - but even that is disputed.

    Here's another point:

    Last year Murray finished number 1 over Djokovic. Now Murray won less slams than Djokovic. His ranking was totally based on ATP weighted points. People didn't dispute Murray's YE status. Why should it change when we up the number of years we are assessing players over? If we were okay on a ranking based on ATP weightings over 1 year - why not use that weighting over multiple years? Otherwise are we saying that in a few years we will re-access whether Murray was 2016 YE#1?

    This ranking system is designed to be objective. Yes, it creates some jarring results. But when you think about it - why is is jarring? I think it is primarily because we tend to rate players in a slam only way - and not over their entire portfolio of achievements. It contradicts our 'slams only' intuitions. But our intuitions sometimes aren't fully accurate.

    Thanks for your encouragement.
     
  23. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    Both Federer and Nadal have movement upwards

    For ease I have reduced the weighting points down by a factor of 1000 eg Slams are worth 2 instead of their ATP 2000.

    Scale is: (SV x 2) + (SEFNL x 1.5) + (SEFOL x 1.3) + (SEFRUNL x 1) + (SRU x 1.2) + (TOP9 x 1) + (TOP9RU x 0.60) + (SEFRUOL x 0.80) + (OSG x 0) + (SSF x 0.72) + (SEFSFNL x 0.60) + (500S x 0.50)

    Federer = (18 x 2) + (5 x 1.5) + (1 x 1.3) + (3 x 1) + (10 x 1.2) + (26 x 1) + (18 x 0.60) + (1 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (13 x 0.72) + (1 x 0.60) + (17 x 0.50) = 115.86

    Lendl = (8 x 2) + ((5 + 2 - 1) x 1.5)) + (0 x 1.3) + (2 x 1) + (11 x 1.2) + (22 x 1) + (11 x 0.60) + (2 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (9 x 0.72) + ((5 -2) x 0.60) + (42 x 0.50) = 99.48

    Djokovic = (12 x 2) + (3 x 1.5) + (2 x 1.3) + (1 x 1) + (9 x 1.2) + (30 x 1) + (13 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (10 x 0.72) + (0 x 0.60) + (12 x 0.50) = 93.9

    Connors = (8 x 2) + (2 x 1.5) + (1 x 1.3) + (1 x 1) + (7 x 1.2) + (17 x 1) + (9 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (16 x 0.72) + (4 x 0.60) + (49 x 0.50) = 90.52

    Nadal = (14 x 2) + (0 x 1.5) + (0 x 1.3) + (2 x 1) + (7 x 1.2) + (28 x 1) + (15 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (1 x 0) + (3 x 0.72) + (1 x 0.60) + (17 x 0.50) = 86.66

    See post 1 in this thread for full details
     
  24. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    Had not for the WTF, Nadal and Nole would be pretty much even at this point. The YEC results is the prime reason Nole is 7 points ahead of Nadal.
     
  25. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Yeah but WTF is a very important and unique event. It's up to Nadal to win it at least once. Honestly 2010/2013 were his best shots and he ran into GOAT-ing Roger & Novak. I guess no shame in that. Just like no shame in losing to Rafa @RG all those years.
     
  26. Jackuar

    Jackuar Professional

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    I believe Nadal has overtaken Connors by now?
     
  27. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    Indeed he has. I keep post 1 in this thread updated with the current rankings (I have copied and pasted some of it below):-

    For ease I have reduced the weighting points down by a factor of 1000 eg Slams are worth 2 instead of their ATP 2000.

    Scale is: (SV x 2) + (SEFNL x 1.5) + (SEFOL x 1.3) + (SEFRUNL x 1) + (SRU x 1.2) + (TOP9 x 1) + (TOP9RU x 0.60) + (SEFRUOL x 0.80) + (OSG x 0) + (SSF x 0.72) + (SEFSFNL x 0.60) + (500S x 0.50)

    Federer = (18 x 2) + (5 x 1.5) + (1 x 1.3) + (3 x 1) + (10 x 1.2) + (26 x 1) + (18 x 0.60) + (1 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (13 x 0.72) + (1 x 0.60) + (18 x 0.50) = 116.36

    Lendl = (8 x 2) + ((5 + 2 - 1) x 1.5)) + (0 x 1.3) + (2 x 1) + (11 x 1.2) + (22 x 1) + (11 x 0.60) + (2 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (9 x 0.72) + ((5 -2) x 0.60) + (42 x 0.50) = 99.48

    Djokovic = (12 x 2) + (3 x 1.5) + (2 x 1.3) + (1 x 1) + (9 x 1.2) + (30 x 1) + (14 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (10 x 0.72) + (0 x 0.60) + (12 x 0.50) = 94.5

    Nadal = (15 x 2) + (0 x 1.5) + (0 x 1.3) + (2 x 1) + (7 x 1.2) + (30 x 1) + (15 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (1 x 0) + (3 x 0.72) + (1 x 0.60) + (18 x 0.50) = 91.16

    Connors = (8 x 2) + (2 x 1.5) + (1 x 1.3) + (1 x 1) + (7 x 1.2) + (17 x 1) + (9 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (16 x 0.72) + (4 x 0.60) + (49 x 0.50) = 90.52

    McEnroe = (7 x 2) + ((3 + (5 - 1)) x 1.5)) + (0 x 1.3) + ((1 + 3) x 1) + (4 x 1.2) + (19 x 1) + (7 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (8 x 0.72) + (0 x 0.60) + (23 x 0.50) = 73.76

    Sampras = (14 x 2) + (0 + (2 - 1) x 1.5) + (5 x 1.3) + ((2 - 1) x 1) + (4 x 1.2) + (11 x 1) + (8 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (5 x 0.72) + ((4 - 1) x 0.60) + (12 x 0.50) = 69.0

    Borg = (11 x 2) + ((1 + (2 -1)) x 1.5)) + (1 x 1.3) + ((1 + (3 - 1)) x 1) + (5 x 1.2) + (15 x 1) + (4 x 0.60) + (1 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (1 x 0.72) + (1 x 0.60) + (17 x 0.50) = 63.32

    Agassi = (8 x 2) + (0 x 1.5) + (1 x 1.3) + ((3 - 1) x 1) + (7 x 1.2) + (17 x 1) + (5 x 0.60) + (1 x 0.80) + (1 x 0) + (11 x 0.72) + (1 x 0.60) + (6 x 0.50) = 61.02

    Becker = (6 x 2) + ((1 + 1) x 1.5)) + (3 x 1.3) + ((4 + 1) x 1) + (4 x 1.2) + (13 x 1) + (8 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (8 x 0.72) + ((2 - 1) x 0.60) + (9 x 0.50)= 57.36

    Murray = (3 x 2) + (1 x 1.5) + (0 x 1.3) + (0 x 1) + (8 x 1.2) + (14 x 1) + (7 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (2 x 0) + (9 x 0.72) + (1 x 0.60) + (10 x 0.50) = 47.38

    Edberg = (6 x 2) + (0 x 1.5) + (1 x 1.3) + ((2 - 1) x 1) + (5 x 1.2) + (8 x 1) + (12 x 0.60) + (0 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (8 x 0.72) + ((2 - 1) x 0.60) + (8 x 0.50) = 45.86

    Wilander = (7 x 2) + (0 x 1.5) + (0 x 1.3) + (0 x 1) + (4 x 1.2) + (8 x 1) + (7 x 0.60) + (1 x 0.80) + (0 x 0) + (3 x 0.72) + (0 x 0.60) + (8 x 0.50****) = 37.96

    **** I found it difficult to determine that Wilander's 500 level equivalents are. Depending upon approaches, I ended up with anything from 5 to 10. I have settled (for now) on 8.
     
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  28. Djokovic2011

    Djokovic2011 Bionic Poster

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    Hilarious that despite his sh1tfest of a season, Djokovic is still more than three points ahead of Nadal.
     
  29. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    This year Nadal has improved by about 6 points. He has been doing very well. Djokovic's sole entry this year (so far) was the 0.6 that he earned making the Rome final. It will be interesting, once their careers have finished, where they both end up.
     
  30. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Bionic Poster

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    I can hear the venom dripping as you type :p
     
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  31. BGod

    BGod Hall of Fame

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    On Novak v. Nadal:

    AO: Novak>Nadal
    FO: Nadal>Novak
    WMB: Novak>Nadal
    USO: Novak>Nadal
    WTF: Novak>Nadal
    #1: Novak>Nadal

    I really can't ignore how Nadal's collective career is clearly behind Federer-Sampras-Djokovic
     
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  32. Incognito

    Incognito Hall of Fame

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    Roddick played amazingly well against Fed in those finals. He lost, just like Djokovic lost to Nadal.
     
  33. Incognito

    Incognito Hall of Fame

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    Nadal has won all the majors. He has more majors than Pete and djokovic. How the hell is that an inferior career?
     
  34. Incognito

    Incognito Hall of Fame

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    I find it hilarious that Nadal is once again 3 majors ahead of djokovic.
     
  35. coupergear

    coupergear Semi-Pro

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    This is cool. Thanks. Both Lendl and Connors though seem to pad with 500S tournaments. No one else even near their numbers. Any historical analysis on this difference? Are these events less popular with today's players?

    Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk
     
  36. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    Nadal has the momentum right now and could inch closer or tie Nole by the end of the season if Nole doesn't win anything. The question is who will reach 100 points first to surpass Lendl who has 99.48 points.
     
  37. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    Have a look at the first post in this thread for a discussion of 500s and Masters 1000 equivalents. Basically it is near impossible to compare modern masters 1000's with pre-1990 tournaments. So to make sure that pre-1990 masters 1000 possible tournament equivalents got recognised, I included tournaments at 500 level so the older players achievements get somewhat recognised
     
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  38. crazyups

    crazyups Professional

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    That's using atp weightings which don't include Olympics.
     
  39. crazyups

    crazyups Professional

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    I think the olympics used to be 700 or 750 atp points for gold.
     
  40. timnz

    timnz Legend

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    It was 750 points, so 0.75 on this scale. Hence isn't enough to put Nadal above Djokovic, at this stage - even if it was counted.

    I believe it should have points but I am strictly following the ATP weightings here, where it has no points.
     

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