Roddick Wimbledon '04 vs Djokovic Wimbledon '11

[USO2010]

Who wins this matchup?

Djokovic didn't have the cleanest route to the finals in '11, losing sets to Baghdatis and Tomic. He looked great against Tsonga in the SF, and he got to feast on a relatively tepid Nadal in the F.
His ROS was clicking during his peak, but in my opinion only marginally better than Peak Fed at Wimbledon (03-06).

Peak Roddick was on fire in the finals, the first set in the final was a fantastic display of aggressive forehands, pinning Fed to the corners. Roddick's level dipped by the 4th set and Fed was able to steady the ship with his defending and his rock solid ROS of Roddick's serve bombs. Rain delay stymied Roddick to a certain degree.

This match definitely goes 5. Roddick takes the first and third sets and I think is able to re-capture the momentum in the 5th set. I have Roddick in 5.

EDIT: Let's assume in this scenario we have a more neutral/middle ground speed grass (WB 2007 or thereabouts) and the racket tech of 2011.

 

[RS]

Does the grass matter to people? There are many people who think the 2004 grass was a lot faster.

 

[ForehandCross]

Murray 2022

 

[USO2010]

Does the grass matter to people? There are many people who think the 2004 grass was a lot faster.

Fair rebuttal.

Lets go with a middle ground, say 2007 WB grass?

 

[JasonZ]

Who wins this matchup?

Djokovic didn't have the cleanest route to the finals in '11, losing sets to Baghdatis and Tomic. He looked great against Tsonga in the SF, and he got to feast on a relatively tepid Nadal in the F.
His ROS was clicking during his peak, but in my opinion only marginally better than Peak Fed at Wimbledon (03-06).

Peak Roddick was on fire in the finals, the first set in the final was a fantastic display of aggressive forehands, pinning Fed to the corners. Roddick's level dipped by the 4th set and Fed was able to steady the ship with his defending and his rock solid ROS of Roddick's serve bombs. Rain delay stymied Roddick to a certain degree.

This match definitely goes 5. Roddick takes the first and third sets and I think is able to re-capture the momentum in the 5th set. I have Roddick in 5.

if it goes to 5, i would bet all my money on djokovic. very unlikely he loses a 5th set against roddick in a slam final, no matter if it is wimbledon or any other.

 

[junkieballer]

"I remember in the 2012 Olympics, I played Novak 2nd round. I was unseeded but had won a couple weeks before and won two of the last three tournaments I played in so I was feeling great. I felt like Wimbledon was a place where I could still catch lightning in a bottle, make a bit of a run. Felt great in practice that week, went out 2nd round. Novak was someone who I had a decent record against at that point and he beat me like a drum. I was like a child on the court and I didn't play that bad. I lost two and two on grass. I walked off the court and thought I'm going to go out tomorrow and feel like I'm playing well. He just beat me like a drum and that was one of the first times where I thought this game is getting a little bit different than what I've been used to, these guys are from another planet right now. That one kind of hit home for me. The way he was playing in that moment was eye opening." (Andy Roddick)

 

[USO2010]

"I remember in the 2012 Olympics, I played Novak 2nd round. I was unseeded but had won a couple weeks before and won two of the last three tournaments I played in so I was feeling great. I felt like Wimbledon was a place where I could still catch lightning in a bottle, make a bit of a run. Felt great in practice that week, went out 2nd round. Novak was someone who I had a decent record against at that point and he beat me like a drum. I was like a child on the court and I didn't play that bad. I lost two and two on grass. I walked off the court and thought I'm going to go out tomorrow and feel like I'm playing well. He just beat me like a drum and that was one of the first times where I thought this game is getting a little bit different than what I've been used to, these guys are from another planet right now. That one kind of hit home for me. The way he was playing in that moment was eye opening."

Pro players tend to succumb to recency bias.

 

[junkieballer]

Pro players tend to succumb to recency bias.

And Fed fans to nostalgia bias

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

if it goes to 5, i would bet all my money on djokovic. very unlikely he loses a 5th set against roddick in a slam final, no matter if it is wimbledon or any other.

This.
Roddick has to close it out in 4, or else, he is screwed.

 

[RS]

Fair rebuttal.

Lets go with a middle ground, say 2007 WB grass?

If you add a 4/5 option I may vote

 

[USO2010]

if it goes to 5, i would bet all my money on djokovic. very unlikely he loses a 5th set against roddick in a slam final, no matter if it is wimbledon or any other.

In this case I disagree. Roddick had the better offensive forehand and better serve. Think that gives him an edge...esp. against Novak's first WB final. I don't think there is a massive mental advantage in either direction.

 

[NatF]

Djokovic in five is the most likely answer.

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

In this case I disagree. Roddick had the better offensive forehand and better serve. Think that gives him an edge...esp. against Novak's first WB final. I don't think there is a massive mental advantage in either direction.

tbf, 2004 Wimbledon F was also Roddick's first Wimbledon final.

 

[Megafanoftennis100]

Djokovic in five is the most likely answer.

Score in the 5th set?
I reckon it would be 8-6

 

[JasonZ]

In this case I disagree. Roddick had the better offensive forehand and better serve. Think that gives him an edge...esp. against Novak's first WB final. I don't think there is a massive mental advantage in either direction.

first wimbledon final or not is not important. but djokovic is simply two leagues above roddick in the mental department.

 

[ghostofMecir]

Is 2004 Roddick using 2011 racket/strings tech or vice versa?

Post prime/peak Roddick’s serve gave Djokovic fits, which is why he’s only one of three players who have a leading dominance ratio and have more than half their points played vs. Djoko (5+ matches played with Federer and sinner the other two).

It’d be close with the match coming down to a few points here and there. I’m leaning Roddick.

 

[USO2010]

first wimbledon final or not is not important. but djokovic is simply two leagues above roddick in the mental department.

Djokovic is better mentally. I just don't think it is enough to overcome the gap in the serve department.

Not to mention, Roddick was quite mentally resilient in the 04 F, coming down from 0-4 (in the second set?) to get back on serve. I don't think the mental gap is as big here.

 

[Winners or Errors]

2004 Roddick was pretty much peak before all the injuries permanently wrecked his game. 2011 Novak still had some pre-2010 Novak in him, which made him a better watch than later "lock-down" versions. I think it's 50/50.

 

[USO2010]

Is 2004 Roddick using 2011 racket/strings tech or vice versa?

Post prime/peak Roddick’s serve gave Djokovic fits, which is why he’s only one of three players who have a leading dominance ratio and have more than half their points played vs. Djoko (5+ matches played with Federer and sinner the other two).

It’d be close with the match coming down to a few points here and there. I’m leaning Roddick.

Fair rebuttal. Let's assume in this scenario we have a more neutral/middle ground speed grass (WB 2007 or thereabouts) and the tech of 2011.

 

[junkieballer]

The people who vote for Roddick in this poll are the same people who predicted Federer to win 2014, 2015 Wimbledon and 2015 US Open.

People who can't predict future matches think they can predict time travel matches

 

[Silentchimera]

I personally think these work better for a 10 match series.

 

[RS]

I personally think these work better for a 10 match series.

Lol.

 

[USO2010]

I personally think these work better for a 10 match series.

noted for next. i guess we can rephrase this as the "expected mode". (most likely scenario)

who do you have in 10 matches?

 

[Silentchimera]

noted for next. i guess we can rephrase this as the "expected modal/median outcome"

who do you have in 10 matches?

Probably Djokovic 6–4 over ten. I’d expect the median match to be very close, likely four or five sets, with Roddick’s serve giving him a real chance in any individual match.

 

[Third Serve]

I think Roddick gives him a terrific fight—I don’t believe he’s someone Novak would be too eager to play on grass—but ultimately Djokovic was in strong form that Wimbledon even if he wasn’t as good as in 2015.

 

[USO2010]

Ran a 50 match simulation using custom software, here are the outcomes:

Empirical win rate: 54-46 Djokovic
Empirical Mode: Roddick def. Djokovic in 5. (24%)

Empirical Dist:

AR5: 24%
AR4: 18%
AR3: 4%
ND5: 22%
ND4: 22%
ND3: 10%

 

[USO2010]

I think Roddick gives him a terrific fight—I don’t believe he’s someone Novak would be too eager to play on grass—but ultimately Djokovic was in strong form that Wimbledon even if he wasn’t as good as in 2015.

Roddick in 3? That's quite something.

 

[Martin J]

Djovak in 5. Ultimately, he would wear Roddick down after a grueling battle but it would be entertaining.

 

[TTMR]

2004 Roddick was pretty much peak before all the injuries permanently wrecked his game. 2011 Novak still had some pre-2010 Novak in him, which made him a better watch than later "lock-down" versions. I think it's 50/50.

Djokovic had lost one match in all of 2011 before Cincy (which was a retirement).

 

[jl809]

There are only a couple of Djokovic’s title winning versions who are capable of beating Roddick 04 at Wimbledon

And this is one of them for sure. Djoker in 4 or 5

 

[USO2010]

I think Roddick gives him a terrific fight—I don’t believe he’s someone Novak would be too eager to play on grass—but ultimately Djokovic was in strong form that Wimbledon even if he wasn’t as good as in 2015.

We never really got to see Djokovic in full flight for a sustained period of time, if he was during the 2011 WB.

Didn't look great in the earlier rounds, turned the tables in a great win over Tsonga, then played a very tepid Nadal in the final. If we weigh the Tsonga result heavily, then its fair I suppose, otherwise harder to gauge. Djokovic played a great second set in the final, but really Nadal was crapping the bed late in the first, and in the final set.

In 04 Roddick dropped just a set before getting to the final and was in another gear. Hard to imagine this not going 5.

A- Djokovic vs. A Roddick on grass.

 

[SonnyT]

if it goes to 5, i would bet all my money on djokovic. very unlikely he loses a 5th set against roddick in a slam final, no matter if it is wimbledon or any other.

There was no way that Roddick could hang with Djokovic on grass. Actually, he couldn't hang with him at all!

 

[JoelSandwich]

There was no way that Roddick could hang with Djokovic on grass. Actually, he couldn't hang with him at all!

Wow!

 

[ghostofMecir]

Fair rebuttal. Let's assume in this scenario we have a more neutral/middle ground speed grass (WB 2007 or thereabouts) and the tech of 2011.

If Roddick has his same 2004 “live arm," . I’m meaning towards him – this is a guy in 2003 was hitting serves 135 to 138 mph out wide on the ad court, which is wild. With 2011 tech and that same arm, he would be a nightmare for Djokovic, but 2011 Djokovic has his own advantages and talent, which should make it a very good even matchup.

 

[ghostofMecir]

There was no way that Roddick could hang with Djokovic on grass. Actually, he couldn't hang with him at all!

Are you talking about the same one who beat Djokovic even after Djokovic had won a slam and had made slam finals? Are you talking about the player who is one of only three players who have won more than half their points played against Djokovic with Federer and Jannik Sinner being the others?

 

[Winners or Errors]

Djokovic had lost one match in all of 2011 before Cincy (which was a retirement).

That doesn't mean he'd automatically beat 2004 Roddick at Wimbledon. And... 40-15. He "escaped" a few times there in 2011.

 

[Shield]

Grew to appreciate Roddick over the years, but I’d favor 2011 Djokovic. I voted 4 sets, same as when he beat Nadal, but 5 wouldn’t be surprising either.

 

[FD3S]

If Roddick has his sane 2004 “live arm” done. I’m meaning towards him – this is a guy in 2003 was hitting serves 135 to 138 mph out wide on the ad court, which is wild. With 2011 tech and that same arm, he would be a nightmare for Djokovic, but 2011 Djokovic has his own advantages and talent, which should make it a very good even matchup.

Pretty sure the poly in Roddick's hybrid set up back then was the original Pro Hurricane which has aged rather poorly by modern string standards. Assuming he sticks with Babolat options 2011 string tech means he has access to RPM Blast, a pretty significant all-around upgrade.

 

[Kralingen]

If it’s the Roddick we saw before the rain delay I’m picking Andy. FWIW, I’m picking that Andy over 2004 Federer with no rain delay too.

 

[Third Serve]

If it’s the Roddick we saw before the rain delay I’m picking Andy. FWIW, I’m picking that Andy over 2004 Federer with no rain delay too.

I don’t think he’d sustain that level for the full five sets regardless. Remember the second wasn’t that good from him.

He played basically a perfect first set but the rest of the match, while it would give all the top grass courters a tough time, never quite reached those heights independently of the rain delay imo.

 

[USO2010]

We've stipulated a more neutral, medium speed grass event (WB 2007) for this hypothetical, and thus no rain delay.

Roddick was up 4-2 in the third before Fed adjusted his strategy after the rain delay. Roddick was never the best tactician so Fed charging the net stymied Roddick from the ground. IIRC Roddick's prior match against Ancic in the SF also had a rain delay, and Ancic rolled off the next 5 games.

With this in mind, its hard to see Roddick lose the third set against Fred on a dry day at WB.

 

[djokovic the conqueror]

Djokovic in 3. He'd win the majority of the rallies because of his superior ground game and movement. Plus, he'd have very little trouble in his service games because Roddick's return was terrible.

He would neutralize Roddick's serve without much trouble because he's the return GOAT. If Federer toyed with Roddick's serve, then Djokovic will do it too.

 

[Third Serve]

Djokovic in 3. He'd win the majority of the rallies because of his superior ground game and movement. Plus, he'd have very little trouble in his service games because Roddick's return was terrible.

He would neutralize Roddick's serve without much trouble because he's the return GOAT. If Federer toyed with Roddick's serve, then Djokovic will do it too.

One’s assessment of Roddick’s returning in the 2004 final is a pretty good litmus test for who actually knows what they’re talking about.

 

[beanchillin]

I just don't think Djokovic in 2011 has the serve to close this out, especially if the court plays fast. The early 2000s on grass were very different and Djoker's game in 2011 benefited a lot from grinding and endurance. I think Roddick's serve and forehand would make it very difficult for Djokovic to set up points and time shots the way we saw him do it in 2011. Tomic's variety early in that 2011 match caused plenty of problems

 

[ghostofMecir]

Djokovic in 3. He'd win the majority of the rallies because of his superior ground game and movement. Plus, he'd have very little trouble in his service games because Roddick's return was terrible.

He would neutralize Roddick's serve without much trouble because he's the return GOAT. If Federer toyed with Roddick's serve, then Djokovic will do it too.

They played many times and Djoko couldn’t neutralize the Roddick serve,

 

[4UTRMoutet]

Lots of crying from the Djokochimps for some reason. All you need to say is Djokovic beat almost prime Grassdal in 4 sets and that's the only argument you need, instead of being a baby.

 

[FD3S]

Djokovic in 3. He'd win the majority of the rallies because of his superior ground game and movement. Plus, he'd have very little trouble in his service games because Roddick's return was terrible.

He would neutralize Roddick's serve without much trouble because he's the return GOAT. If Federer toyed with Roddick's serve, then Djokovic will do it too.

On paper, the bolded section was the pre-match tale of the tape for every match they played barring their first encounter. In practice, Roddick still won more than he lost.

 

[mike danny]

Grew to appreciate Roddick over the years, but I’d favor 2011 Djokovic. I voted 4 sets, same as when he beat Nadal, but 5 wouldn’t be surprising either.

I’d say it would be closer than the 2011 final

 

[mike danny]

Lots of crying from the Djokochimps for some reason. All you need to say is Djokovic beat almost prime Grassdal in 4 sets and that's the only argument you need, instead of being a baby.

I’m not sure that would be enough though because it can be argued that 2004 Roddick played a stronger match than 2011 Nadal

 

[Shield]

I’d say it would be closer than the 2011 final

It’s possible. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who said it could go 5. Imo Djokovic would still take the win. Would have been fun to watch.