Roddick's Road back into the Top 4.

Okay here it goes.

After Wimbledon Roddick has 5440 points. And going into Indy Roddick will be #5 because of the points Del Potro lost at Kitzbuhel. If Roddick wins Washington and makes at least the semis at LA, Roddick has a net gain of 340 points or in other words a total of 5740 points. If he wins Indy he make up for some points lost in LA so its reasonable to assume that Roddick goes into the Masters with 5650 points (because the masters points are dropped early). Del Potro will go into the masters with less than 5000 points because he won't be able to defend a lot of points due to the new point system. Djokovic will go into the Masters with 6790 points. In the masters Roddick will have to hope for nice draws to make at least one semi and one quarter. That will add 540 points to his total at a minimum so he'll have 6190 points. Assuming that Djokovic keeps up his form he'll match Roddick at best so Djokovic will have 7330. Now comes the US Open. If Roddick ends up in either Nadal's or Djokovic's or maybe even Murray's quarter Roddick should make the semis. In this instance I'll take a conservative approach so let's say Roddick and Djokovic makes the quarters. Roddick drops to 6100 points and Djokovic drops to 6790 points. Roddick will lose points at Beijing no matter what but should make up those points at Tokyo which is now an ATP 500 leaving him with 6260 points going into the Shanghai masters. Djokovic won't gain much points because the only fall tourny he plays is an ATP 250 and he is defending 240 points. So Djokovic goes to 6800 points. If at Shanghai, Roddick can match Djokovic in the quarters their point totals go up to 6290 points and 6830 points respectively because they both lose 150 points at Paris. Roddick will probably lose 90 points at Paris and Djokovic 60 because nobody tries at Paris leaving them with 6200 points and 6770 points going into the ATP Tour Finals.

Djokovic has to defend 1300 points

Roddick has to defend 0 points

If Roddick wins just one match and Djokovic loses in the semis Roddick becomes #4 unless Del Potro becomes amazing all of a sudden. If Djokovic doesn't sweep his group and Roddick wins one match, Roddick can still become #4 if Djokovic makes the finals.

Here you guys go. What do you think?
 
given the way that roddick has been playing so far this year compared to last year, i would not be at all surprised to see him finish 4, but i think 5 is a safer bet.
 
I Hope Roddick can end the year top 5, he's has a better year then Both Delpo and Djoker and has performed better than both, slam wise.
 
roddick needs another stron run at the uso this year to ensure he has that top 5 finish bagged, #4 is within his grasp though because he has 0 points at the masters to defend while #4 has the win from last year.

but hardcourt season is just starting so nothing is for sure yet.
 
Okay here it goes.

After Wimbledon Roddick has 5440 points. And going into Indy Roddick will be #5 because of the points Del Potro lost at Kitzbuhel. If Roddick wins Washington and makes at least the semis at LA, Roddick has a net gain of 340 points or in other words a total of 5740 points. If he wins Indy he make up for some points lost in LA so its reasonable to assume that Roddick goes into the Masters with 5650 points (because the masters points are dropped early). Del Potro will go into the masters with less than 5000 points because he won't be able to defend a lot of points due to the new point system. Djokovic will go into the Masters with 6790 points. In the masters Roddick will have to hope for nice draws to make at least one semi and one quarter. That will add 540 points to his total at a minimum so he'll have 6190 points. Assuming that Djokovic keeps up his form he'll match Roddick at best so Djokovic will have 7330. Now comes the US Open. If Roddick ends up in either Nadal's or Djokovic's or maybe even Murray's quarter Roddick should make the semis. In this instance I'll take a conservative approach so let's say Roddick and Djokovic makes the quarters. Roddick drops to 6100 points and Djokovic drops to 6790 points. Roddick will lose points at Beijing no matter what but should make up those points at Tokyo which is now an ATP 500 leaving him with 6260 points going into the Shanghai masters. Djokovic won't gain much points because the only fall tourny he plays is an ATP 250 and he is defending 240 points. So Djokovic goes to 6800 points. If at Shanghai, Roddick can match Djokovic in the quarters their point totals go up to 6290 points and 6830 points respectively because they both lose 150 points at Paris. Roddick will probably lose 90 points at Paris and Djokovic 60 because nobody tries at Paris leaving them with 6200 points and 6770 points going into the ATP Tour Finals.

Djokovic has to defend 1300 points

Roddick has to defend 0 points

If Roddick wins just one match and Djokovic loses in the semis Roddick becomes #4 unless Del Potro becomes amazing all of a sudden. If Djokovic doesn't sweep his group and Roddick wins one match, Roddick can still become #4 if Djokovic makes the finals.

Here you guys go. What do you think?
I think it depends on how the players do during the hard court season. Right now, Djokovic has 8150 points and must defend 4100. Going into the Masters, that gives him 4050 points (8150 - 4100 = 4050) plus whatever he earns during the rest of the year. DelP 2325+ and Roddick 3470+. In effect, Roddick has an 1145 point lead over DelP (3470 - 2325 = 1145) and is 580 points behind Djokovic (4050 -3470 = 580).

So you are right that Del Potro needs to do better than Roddick to keep his #5 spot and, if he doesn't, then Roddick needs to do better than Djokovic to move into #4.

LT
 
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