Roger : best ever, The four of us? That’s a really difficult call.

BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
Limpin, Here my 1967 Wimbledon seeds:

1 Laver
2 Rosewall
3 Gonzalez
4 Gimeno
5 Emerson
6 Stolle
7 Newcombe
8 Santana
9 Buchholz
10 Ralston
11 Hoad
12 Roche
13 Ashe
14 Graebner
15 Bungert
16 Drysdale

Thus 8 pros and 8 amateurs.

pc1, I'm sorry, I might be able to address you but not directly because every time I log in your posts vanish from my display.

Limpin's question was about the seedings of June 1967. Not about who the greatest chances would have.

I still cannot agree regarding Ashe and Okker who did rather little in the first half of 1967.

Please remember that Hoad was able to reach fourth round in the 1970 French Open. In 1967 he was in better form.

Lew's performance at the 1966 Wembley was fantastic.

Hoad would have trained much for an open 1967 Wimbledon.
 

pc1

G.O.A.T.
pc1, I'm sorry, I might be able to address you but not directly because every time I log in your posts vanish from my display.

Limpin's question was about the seedings of June 1967. Not about who the greatest chances would have.

I still cannot agree regarding Ashe and Okker who did rather little in the first half of 1967.

Please remember that Hoad was able to reach fourth round in the 1970 French Open. In 1967 he was in better form.

Lew's performance at the 1966 Wembley was fantastic.

Hoad would have trained much for an open 1967 Wimbledon.
It's all speculation on my part anyway so it really doesn't matter. To be honest I don't know how much extra training would've done for him considering how much the back injuries must've taken from him. It doesn't matter I concede that Hoad could've been seeded if one used logic but also a logical case could be made for him not being seeded. As you could tell I wasn't sure to begin with and I originally did seed him.
 
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Dan Lobb

G.O.A.T.
Who is talking about winning percentage? I only talked about a higher level of play, which is the only logical conclusion. Come on Dan, try to keep up. You haven`t presented any facts, at all. You are only referring to opinions of others, on a court room you would be helpless. I gave you an argumentation, backed up by facts and common sense on why players emerging from and dominating a larger field, are more likely to display a higher level of play. All you got is heresay.

There is no point in continuing this topic. Lets just agree to disagree then
No, where do you get that? Not just "opinions of others", which would be useless, but the opinions of the players themselves, who are the only genuine experts on this question.
The idea of "there are more people playing, they must be better" does not take into account that there are many more sports played today, and more money around, so of course there would be more players.
In the old pre-open era, you had to be a great player to make a career out of tennis, there was little competition for athletes from other sports, so only a few sports had spots for great athletes.
Tennis was certainly a much hotter sport in Australia in the 1946-1970 era, interest fell off drastically after that, motor sports became the great passion of Australians.
There were fewer major sports worldwide then, tennis attracted the better athletes.
 

Limpinhitter

G.O.A.T.
1967 Open Wimbledon hypothetical seedings
This almost is retroactive seeding in hindsight.

1. Rod Laver
2. Ken Rosewall
3. John Newcombe (I think Kramer put money on Newk to win the amateur Wimbledon in 1967.)
4. Roy Emerson
5. Arthur Ashe (Ashe didn't play Wimbledon that and only played the Australian among the four majors. Ashe reached the final losing to Emerson. Great grass game. Ashe had a bigger serve in those days and we do know he won the first US Open in 1968.)
6. Andres Gimeno
7. Pancho Gonzalez (took into account he was in his late thirties and may not handle best of five for many rounds well. As his peak he could be top seed. I may seed 1956 Gonzalez top seed.)
8. Tony Roche
9. Tom Okker
10. Butch Buchholz
11. Dennis Ralston (number 10 and 11 are close and could be switched)
12. Manuel Santana
13. Fred Stolle
14. Lew Hoad (He had a lot of injuries and frankly I'm not sure if he should be seeded. I believe he had not won a tournament in many years by 1967! He clearly would be one of the top seeds at his peak.)
15. Drysdale
16. Graebner

This was more difficult than I expected. Here are my seeds for a hypothetical open Wimbledon 1967:

1. Rod Laver
2. Ken Rosewall
3. Roy Emerson
4. John Newcombe
5. Pancho Gonzalez
6. Andres Gimeno
7. Manuel Santana
8. Tony Roche
9. Arthur Ashe
10. Fred Stolle
11. Dennis Ralston
12. Cliff Drysdale
13. Butch Buchholz
14. Lew Hoad
15. Niki Pilic
16. Clark Gaebner
 
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krosero

Legend
I know that @krosero has data about % of tournaments won. I may be wrong, but if I am remembering correctly Gonzalez, comparing him to modern players, does not look very dominant. I don't think any of those 50s and 60s players did. My own assumption is that those great players compare very well to today's players in winning, in being tough, domination, but again you can't see that with Laver from numbers until 1969. If you think Laver improved in '69, you could explain his "lesser success" earlier in those terms, but my assumption is that Laver absolutely peaked sometime a bit earlier. So if his stats/numbers do not reflect that, we need to examine what was different from the OE to push them down.
I have Gonzalez winning 34% of all his career tourneys, which compares very well with modern players. I would have thought you meant that Gonzalez compares poorly to modern players in terms of match percentage, which he does, as do all the greats who spent significant amounts of time on the old pro tour, due to the format being so different from modern formats.

In terms of match winning percentage I agree with all the points you're making.

I'm pretty sure that Laver had a lower match% outside of majors than in majors, also true of modern players, but probably a bit more depressed. I don't have all his non-major matches, but other people tell me my limited data for non-majors is too high because of a lot of matches that are not in most lists. That suggests to me that even after '68, some of the old mentality with smaller tourneys with very strong players continued.
Wiki has the numbers in majors, counting the 4 Slam events and US/French/Wembley Pros: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Laver_career_statistics#Performance_timeline

You may have calculated the GS numbers yourself; I haven't, so I'll go with the Wiki numbers here, and compare them with my latest career figures for all matches.

Amateur and Open periods combined:

Majors: 142-29 (83.04%)
All matches: 1150-311 (78.71%)


Old Pro Tour:

Majors: 38-7 (84.44%)
All matches: 451-178 (71.70%)

So yes Laver's match % outside of majors is lower than in majors.

The difference is most pronounced under old pro tour conditions, possibly (and this is just a guess) because so many pro tour tournaments were 4-man events.

But something to keep in mind too is that the old pro tour figure is made up entirely of Laver's prime years, and that may be a factor, too.
 

BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
Limpin, Here my 1967 Wimbledon seeds:

1 Laver
2 Rosewall
3 Gonzalez
4 Gimeno
5 Emerson
6 Stolle
7 Newcombe
8 Santana
9 Buchholz
10 Ralston
11 Hoad
12 Roche
13 Ashe
14 Graebner
15 Bungert
16 Drysdale

Thus 8 pros and 8 amateurs.

I want to change my 16 seeds a bit:

1 Laver
2 Rosewall
3 Gonzalez
4 Gimeno
5 Emerson
6 Stolle
7 Newcombe
8 Santana
9 Roche
10 Ralston
11 Buchholz
12 Hoad
13 Ashe
14 Graebner
15 K. Fletcher
16 Drysdale

I think that the seeding people would have seeded about this way.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
I have Gonzalez winning 34% of all his career tourneys, which compares very well with modern players. I would have thought you meant that Gonzalez compares poorly to modern players in terms of match percentage, which he does, as do all the greats who spent significant amounts of time on the old pro tour, due to the format being so different from modern formats.
I'm not making any strong statements about any of this for the 50s and 60s. But yes, I would absolutely assume that match% and game% are lower, since they are linked statistically, just as point% is also linked to game%.

Tournament% is going to be different because that is based only on finals.

We could, for instance, simply do a comparison of finals today for all categories of tournaments and thus compare majors to M1000s, M500s, and M250s. However, it won't help with most players because you won't have enough data. It would be an interesting thing to compare with Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic except that for Sampras and Agassi I'd probably have to simply go with majors and non-majors. I would not know how to arbitrarily assign those levels to all tourneys in the 90s.

Also, with majors and non-majors we would have some kind of metric for the whole OE, but with a huge problem: we would then run into the problem of "big money tournaments" vs. majors in the Laver/Rosewall era.

But I may run the numbers for majors/non-majors for all the ATGs of the OE, then run them in detail for this era.

I would expect game% to be higher for non-major finals.

I could also run SFs and Fs. Really I can filter in any way and I'm open to suggestions.
In terms of match winning percentage I agree with all the points you're making.
Yes. I'm talking about matches and games.
Wiki has the numbers in majors, counting the 4 Slam events and US/French/Wembley Pros: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Laver_career_statistics#Performance_timeline
You may have calculated the GS numbers yourself; I haven't, so I'll go with the Wiki numbers here, and compare them with my latest career figures for all matches.

Amateur and Open periods combined:

Majors: 142-29 (83.04%)
141-29 170
82.94%

Either Wiki has an extra match or I'm missing one. I believe I found an error in Wiki's total, which is slightly different from the ATP. My tally matches exactly with the ATP, which I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) at least got the majors right. But we are so close it hardly matters.

I have this for the OE:

59.89% of games

60.10 70
85.71% of matches.

This is more important to me than his amateur record because it should track better against other players in the OE.

What I absolutely do NOT have is anything like a complete record of his matches out of majors, but the data I have suggests that his non-major record is clearly lower, and I believe a more complete list, such as the one you have, pulls that down further.
All matches: 1150-311 (78.71%)
So right there down about 7% lower than his record in majors...
Old Pro Tour:

Majors: 38-7 (84.44%)
All matches: 451-178 (71.70%)
That's huge. The record in majors is close to his record in the OE. I don't know how many rounds were in the Pro Majors. From that % I would guess more rounds.
So yes Laver's match % outside of majors is lower than in majors.
Interesting. My assumption at this time is that the non-major matches in the old-pro era were far fewer rounds, and that in and of itself would explain it.
The difference is most pronounced under old pro tour conditions, possibly (and this is just a guess) because so many pro tour tournaments were 4-man events.

But something to keep in mind too is that the old pro tour figure is made up entirely of Laver's prime years, and that may be a factor, too.
My GUESS is that Laver's numbers should have been higher at his peak but are depressed because of the pro tour conditions. In other words, based on the figures I have for both Laver and Rosewall in majors in the OE, it seems logical to me that they would have had higher numbers in an OE situation. In other words, if the OE had started in '48 instead of '68, Laver and Rosewall would have had numbers during the 60s that would be fully in line with those of modern players.

I can't prove it, of course.

But it is in line with the way the numbers turned out for the OE. ;)
 

krosero

Legend
141-29 170
82.94%

Either Wiki has an extra match or I'm missing one. I believe I found an error in Wiki's total, which is slightly different from the ATP. My tally matches exactly with the ATP, which I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) at least got the majors right. But we are so close it hardly matters.

I have this for the OE:

59.89% of games

60.10 70
85.71% of matches.

This is more important to me than his amateur record because it should track better against other players in the OE.
Ok good so in the OE he won 85.7% of all his GS matches, going with your figure. In all matches of every kind, I have him at 606-182 in the OE, or 76.9%. Almost a 9% difference.

More to come.
 

krosero

Legend
That's huge. The record in majors is close to his record in the OE. I don't know how many rounds were in the Pro Majors. From that % I would guess more rounds.

Interesting. My assumption at this time is that the non-major matches in the old-pro era were far fewer rounds, and that in and of itself would explain it.
That's too huge a difference, because I wasn't comparing apples to apples. I should have removed the tour matches (which I can easily do, I just forgot I had that figure calculated in another sheet!). If I do that, we can compare the pro majors against other tournaments only. The tour matches (ie, one-night stands) are depressing the figures even more so than small-draw tournaments are doing, so it's best to remove them.

I've also changed Wiki's figures for the pro majors because I've checked them and they are missing "place" matches, eg, third-place matches. Such matches are foreign to us today but they have to be included in this comparison because place matches were common in old pro tournaments, not just in the pro majors.

So re-doing the numbers for Laver:

Amateur years:

Majors: 82-19 (81.18%)

All matches: 544-129 (80.83%)


Open Era:

Majors: 60-10 (85.71%)

All matches: 606-182 (76.90%)


Old Pro Tour:

Pro Majors: 39-7 (84.78%)

All tournaments (no one-night stands): 339-87 (79.58%)


So this is better; the pro majors still stand out but not quite as much as before.

So the pattern is there: in the OE, Laver did about 9% better in majors than non-majors. On the old pro tour, about 5% better.
 
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krosero

Legend
I'm not making any strong statements about any of this for the 50s and 60s. But yes, I would absolutely assume that match% and game% are lower, since they are linked statistically, just as point% is also linked to game%.

Tournament% is going to be different because that is based only on finals.

We could, for instance, simply do a comparison of finals today for all categories of tournaments and thus compare majors to M1000s, M500s, and M250s. However, it won't help with most players because you won't have enough data. It would be an interesting thing to compare with Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic except that for Sampras and Agassi I'd probably have to simply go with majors and non-majors. I would not know how to arbitrarily assign those levels to all tourneys in the 90s.

Also, with majors and non-majors we would have some kind of metric for the whole OE, but with a huge problem: we would then run into the problem of "big money tournaments" vs. majors in the Laver/Rosewall era.

But I may run the numbers for majors/non-majors for all the ATGs of the OE, then run them in detail for this era.

I would expect game% to be higher for non-major finals.

I could also run SFs and Fs. Really I can filter in any way and I'm open to suggestions.
However you want to build on my numbers for the old greats and connect them to moderns is fine with me :)

I'll run the numbers too for Rosewall and Gonzalez. I know you calculated Ken's GS numbers and found a mistake at Wiki for the AO, were the other majors ok?

One note: when I give the figures for "all matches" in the OE, the vast majority are tournament matches but there are a good number of one-night stands in there. Those types of matches did not go away entirely for some time, and Laver, Rosewall and Gonzalez all continued to play them right into the mid-70s, at least.

They could be filtered out but I have not done that breakdown yet. I did it for the old pro tour because obviously the one-night stand was a dominant feature then. And such matches depressed the players' stats to a great degree. Did they do so in the OE? I would assume that they did but without a breakdown we don't know for sure. And anyway there weren't that many -- but keep in mind that they are there, in my figures.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
However you want to build on my numbers for the old greats and connect them to moderns is fine with me :)

I'll run the numbers too for Rosewall and Gonzalez. I know you calculated Ken's GS numbers and found a mistake at Wiki for the AO, were the other majors ok?
I know that it took me a LONG time to reconcile the ATP data with TA and then with you, if I remember correctly. As you know, there are errors everywhere. It sounds like Tennis Base is now getting it right if the owner is syncing with your data. Probably it is a matter of getting closer and closer to the full picture, and at some point you will be so close that getting closer won't change anything. You are probably already there.

I can't say for certain that the extra match Wiki is has is wrong and what I have is right. I'm only pretty sure it matches what the ATP has. To reconcile I'd have to check the majors every year, both in the amateur and OE periods. The missing match could be anywhere. If what you have matches with what Wiki has, I'd go with you in a heartbeat, then try to find out what year I am missing a major match.
One note: when I give the figures for "all matches" in the OE, the vast majority are tournament matches but there are a good number of one-night stands in there. Those types of matches did not go away entirely for some time, and Laver, Rosewall and Gonzalez all continued to play them right into the mid-70s, at least.
Yes. Those are the matches I am missing, totally. I THINK that going only by the matches counted by the ATP it favors the stats some, because those tourneys all seem to have a minimum of 4 to 5 rounds. In other words, the number of rounds favors the stats a bit, but not as much as majors. The extra matches you have would logically drive down the stats more.

I would DEFINITELY go by your stats, not mine, for all the guys who played on the pro tour and then moved into the OE.

I know I am missing matches for all the guys like Connors too. It is the same problem, competing tennis organizations. For the time being I'm using non-major matches only as a kind of check against majors, as a comparison.

I'm troubled by the figures for Connors and McEnroe. For both of them results outside of majors are very close to results in majors, usually not true at all for later ATGs, and quite obviously NOT true for Borg.

Connors is about 1% higher in majors than outside of majors. McEnroe is about .1% lower.

Rosewall is almost 10% higher, Sampras 9% even rounded off to the closest 1/100th of a percent.

Lendl only about .5% higher, but Borg 8%.

I can't fully explain this except to say that Lendl's reputation for being very consistent but a bit weak in majors might be true, and perhaps both Connors and McEnroe did will in small tourneys. I don't have invitationals and 4 men tournaments in my list, so the difference is striking.

I never got around to posting a chart showing my results.
They could be filtered out but I have not done that breakdown yet. I did it for the old pro tour because obviously the one-night stand was a dominant feature then. And such matches depressed the players' stats to a great degree. Did they do so in the OE? I would assume that they did but without a breakdown we don't know for sure. And anyway there weren't that many -- but keep in mind that they are there, in my figures.
[/quote]
My own data is extremely flexible because of the way I set it up. There is a quirk in my spread sheet that allows me to filter - which will not recompute for what I filter - then simply do a mass copy paste to a new screen, and the figures are instantly recomputed. My formulas are all in the first line, and the moment I copy to a new file they automatically only take into consideration the rows that are copied.

I then have to record the results. It's not fully automatic, unfortunately, but it's close.

The problem is that I do not have your complete data. I do for modern players. Going back into the 80s can get a bit dicey, the farther back, the worse.

I also don't know the exact history of when the kind of small tourneys of the late 60s and early 70s mostly stopped. I'm assuming it would have been when the ATP was fully established and there were no longer competing organizations splitting the field. My focus started totally from 1991 to the present, and that's where me data is solid. I've been gradually moving back because I wanted to see how the trends going on right now compare going back in time.
 

pc1

G.O.A.T.
This was more difficult than I expected. Here are my seeds for a hypothetical open Wimbledon 1967:

1. Rod Laver
2. Ken Rosewall
3. Roy Emerson
4. John Newcombe
5. Pancho Gonzalez
6. Andres Gimeno
7. Manuel Santana
8. Tony Roche
9. Arthur Ashe
10. Fred Stolle
11. Dennis Ralston
12. Cliff Drysdale
13. Butch Buchholz
14. Lew Hoad
15. Niki Pilic
16. Clark Gaebner
Limpinhitter,

Is this what you thought the seedings would be or is this what you think the seedings SHOULD BE?
 
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Limpinhitter

G.O.A.T.
Limpinhitter,

Is this what you thought the seedings would be or is this what you think the seedings SHOULD BE?

It's not what I thought they would be, hypothetically, because I'm not privy to Wimbledon's seeding criteria. It's a seeding based on performance in big tournaments over the prior year, combined with my personal opinion about each players' ability to succeed at Wimbledon.
 
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Drob

Hall of Fame
And Federer superior to Nadal ? This is also very debatable.


Federer is superior to Nadal

a) in the number of Slam tournaments won,

b) in the number of “Masters Cup” won,

and

c) on true fast (indoor) courts

but

On all the other points, Nadal is better than Federer.

Peak Nadal is clearly better than peak Federer on clay.

Peak Nadal is better than peak Fed on slow outdoor hardcourts

as almost all their Australian Open

(usually slow courts in the 2000’s and early 2010’s but fast courts since 2016 and especially 2017)

and Indian Wells

(not always but usually slow courts in California)

results had shown :

on slow outdoor hardcourts Nadal had lost only twice to Federer both at Indian Wells, in 2012 when the Spanish was slightly injured and in 2017 when Nadal played badly (but apparently Federer played even better than at the 2017 AO final).

Until 2016,

peak Nadal has been better than peak Federer on fast outdoor hardcourts.

But I have to recognize that

it is likely that

“Federer early 2017” is on fast (and perhaps even slow) hard courts better than peak Nadal (early 2009 / 2010 / 2013) ever was.

I still do not claim “surely” but “likely”

because “Nadal early 2017” is not as good as he was in 2009 (before his injury) or 2010 or 2013.

Nadal is not anymore as fast as he was in his young years

and besides in his three matches against Federer in 2017, the Spaniard has played too often Federer’s forehand including on the serve which he didn’t do in previous years (in some ancient matches Nadal had fully served to Fed’s backhand).

On the contrary “Federer early 2017” is better than he ever was on hard court surfaces.

Peak Nadal is better than peak Federer on XXIth Wimbledon slow grass.

Only on fast indoor courts, peak Nadal was less good than peak Federer.

In other words

peak Nadal is better than peak Federer on most surfaces.


Nadal has a much better record in Davis Cup,



Nadal has a much better record in Olympic Games singles event,



Nadal has a much better record in “Masters 1000”.



On August 19, 2013, Nadal had a positive head-to-head record against every other Top30 player in the world.

Since that date the Top30 list has changed

but it is very likely that Nadal has still a positive record today against everyone except of course Djokovic

(and perhaps a new rising player)

who leads Nadal in head-to-head confrontations since their 2016 Doha final on Saturday, January 9th.

It just shows how Nadal has been a dominant player

(before his recent years decline).

Federer at the same age

(27 years 2 months 16 days)

had not such a positive record

(in particular he was already dominated by Nadal in head-to-head record).

When Nadal was at his top he was superior to any player except Djokovic when the latter was on “stratospheric” heights

while Federer had and still has enormous problems to say the least when he met (meets) Nadal

or when he faces Murray when the Scots is in form

(though the Swiss has won their last 5 matches to lead 14-11 up to April 2017).

Federer is possibly the only player in tennis history who, as a world #1 was dominated during his reign by the supposed world #2, then Nadal.





Doherty no claim ?!?! Wrong argument, see my previous posts.

Tilden very little claim ?!?! Wrong argument, see my previous posts.

And Rosewall, Gonzales, Borg pretty certain below Laver and Federer ?!?! No sure at all.

About Rosewall versus Laver you didn’t give any valuable argument.

You just UNINTENTIONALLY pointed out that Laver was lucky to be born at the right moment :

able to win the amateur Grand Slam when the amateur competition was close to its lowest,

able to win the Pro Grand Slam when he was at his very peak (1967 is possibly Laver’s best year ever)

and again very close to his peak in 1969 to win an Open Slam

while Rosewall was much unluckier than Rocket because born too early in a “wrong” era.

“Muscles” peak years were 1961-1962-1963 when he was the world #1, by very far in the last two years.

However Rosewall wasn’t, very unfairly, considered then as the world top player

because all the glory reflected on Laver due to his domination in the amateur ranks (in particular his 1962 Slam)

whereas Rocket was clearly less good than Rosewall during these years.


Kenny’s apogee is simply either ignored or unknown.


Once again considering Laver’s Slam in 1962 as a very great feat is a pure nonsense given that some pros were clearly better than him that year.

Of course many players born earlier than Rosewall were even unluckier than Kenny and are nowadays completely forgotten even more than Rosewall : Gonzales, Segura, Kramer, Riggs, Budge, Vines, Perry, Tilden, Wilding, Brookes, the Dohertys and others.





Your answer to :

“Originally Posted by Carlo

PS.. 2 : my list of majors as indicated above is of course subjective because I don’t rely on tradition.”

Well I should have written

“my list of majors as indicated above is of course subjective

however the list of majors considered as official is in fact so laughable that it deserves only ignorance and contempt.

Therefore my subjectiveness is nothing compared to the stupidity of the so-called official designation of major tourneys”
.

This supposed official list relies on supposed tradition

but ONE CAN’Trely on tradition.



The reason is that the players couldn’t choose their tournaments.


They were due to obey their federation and/or had financial (in amateur tennis) needs.

They couldn’t play according to so-called tradition but according to their possibilities which could be very restrained.


Tradition in tennis in those days was a fallacy, a pure nonsense.


The so-called “greatest” events according to dubious standard weren’t the true greatest events at all

given how the tennis circuit was structured at the time.


The problem is that almost everybody now refers to statistics compiling numbers from the so-called majors in order to rate players

whereas these majors were in fact, so many times, very strong depleted events.


So my choices are necessarily subjective and so debatable

but I don’t think that many of my choices can be denied.

Probably few choices are wrong. In particular perhaps should I choose more often some North America (or World) Pro head-to-head tours.

In the end my subjective choices are anyway very much closer to the “truth” than the “official” list.


Besides I don’t make any GOAT rankings etched in the stone from my list :

I would never say that a player A with 10 majors (according to my list) is better than a player B with 9 majors

because I perfectly know that my estimations of majors won, have all a margin of error given that the choices of majors are debatable.


Moreover it is a great error to rate tennis players on majors won alone.

There are many other criteria to use in order to judge players’s feats (I won’t detail them here).


However it is clear that 11 Slams tourneys for Laver don’t make him justice at all.

Nevertheless in the public opinion Laver is a much inferior player than Federer because the latter has won 18 majors.

So when I state that Laver has indeed won almost 20 majors it is very much closer to the truth than 11

which is, as I have said earlier, a pure nonsense.


So choosing events that I think as “greatest” is less error-prone than the “official” alternative.





Your answer to :

Originally Posted by Carlo

Why ? Because in the pre-open era, tradition was more an ideal, a hypothetical concept, a fruit of imagination than a reality.

Even in the amateur circuit, tradition was an illusion and so-called great traditional amateur events didn’t always deserved this label.

I can retort exactly in the same way as yours : these so-called greatest events were labelled thus according to who ? According to officials who just wanted to rule players and to prevent some of them, especially the very best, to enter in their so-called majors.

It is pure common sense. Look at the draws of these supposed great events.

So many of them were so weak that it is evident that the “tradition argument” is a pure fallacy.

Look at the draws of the Australian amateur champs, the French amateur champs and even the US and British amateur champs.

Are you blind ? Stop playing the blind, please. Open your eyes !!!
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
That's too huge a difference, because I wasn't comparing apples to apples. I should have removed the tour matches (which I can easily do, I just forgot I had that figure calculated in another sheet!). If I do that, we can compare the pro majors against other tournaments only. The tour matches (ie, one-night stands) are depressing the figures even more so than small-draw tournaments are doing, so it's best to remove them.

I've also changed Wiki's figures for the pro majors because I've checked them and they are missing "place" matches, eg, third-place matches. Such matches are foreign to us today but they have to be included in this comparison because place matches were common in old pro tournaments, not just in the pro majors.

So re-doing the numbers for Laver:

Amateur years:

Majors: 82-19 (81.18%)

All matches: 544-129 (80.83%)


Open Era:

Majors: 60-10 (85.71%)

All matches: 606-182 (76.90%)


Old Pro Tour:

Pro Majors: 39-7 (84.78%)

All tournaments (no one-night stands): 339-87 (79.58%)


So this is better; the pro majors still stand out but not quite as much as before.

So the pattern is there: in the OE, Laver did about 9% better in majors than non-majors. On the old pro tour, about 5% better.
Update: Apparently the Wiki total for majors lists one extra W for the AO, and that is where the error is. You and I cross checked the numbers for Laver at the AO.

So at least my Laver data for majors is 100% complete and correct, I believe.
 

BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
I want to change my 16 seeds a bit:

1 Laver
2 Rosewall
3 Gonzalez
4 Gimeno
5 Emerson
6 Stolle
7 Newcombe
8 Santana
9 Roche
10 Ralston
11 Buchholz
12 Hoad
13 Ashe
14 Graebner
15 K. Fletcher
16 Drysdale

I think that the seeding people would have seeded about this way.

Here my seeded players of an open 1964 Wimbledon as maybe the committee would have ranked.

1 Rosewall
2 Laver
3 Gonzalez
4 Gimeno
5 Emerson
6 Buchholz
7 Hoad
8 McKinley (holder of the amateur event)
9 Sedgman
10 Olmedo
11 Santana
12 Osuna
13 Anderson
14 MacKay
15 Ralston
16 Stolle

Thus 10 pros and 6 amateurs
 

Drob

Hall of Fame
Mr. Colussi: You are a brilliant tennis historian and I agree with you on many things. But I must take issue on your Nadal-Federer analysis.

One point: your general assertion that peak Nadal better than peak Federer on most surfaces. Except for slow hardcourt, you did not specify "most surfaces." But besides Clay Obviously, what are the other surfaces you refer to?

Grass? 7 Wimbledons to 2; 8 titles at Halle versus 1 Queens and 1 Stuggart

Fast Hardcourt - 7 Cinncinnati Masters 1000 to 1

Medium Hardcourt - 5 U.S. Opens to 2

Slow Hardcourt - 3 Sunshine Doubles to zero; 4 AO to 1 (they say this year's AO was fast so I don't count it in Federer's
favor)

Indoors: 4 of Roger's 6 WTF or Masters Cups won indoors versus zero WTFs for Rafa; Federer 22 Indoor titles versus 2 (yes, two) for Nadal.

Another point you assert: Nadal peak superior on slow hardcourt. See above, three Sunshine Doubles to zero. (And, I might add, "slow hardcourt" is a contemporary phenomenon, what we now call hardcourts hardly existed as significant tournament surfaces until well into the 1970s, with the Pacific Southwest and Pacific Coast Championships practically the only two cement-based tournaments of note before the open era. And the hardcourt tournaments were generally fast courts from 1970s until early this century. My point being, the slow hardcourt may be very much of the moment, but it doesn't have historical pedigree, and, as shown above, it looks like Rafa would not have done so well on fast indoor courts (or fast outdoor courts) that made up the vast majority of top-flight tennis traditionally [obviously I am talking mostly "Pro" tennis here in pre-Open terms]. Rafa is a great, extraordinary player and fighter and tactician,and would have adjusted, but I don't think the ultra-fast indoor wood courts of the later French Pro, or the canvass laid over ice rinks of the Pro Tours would have been Rafa's thing. Federer, on the other hand, would have thrived on such surfaces.

Third: Nadal Clear Davis Cup superiority. Technically accurate but problematic. Nadal has been stingy, Federer giving. Nadal has best historical singles percentage in Davis Cup, but only 23 matches (give or take one) versus nearly 50 Federer singles matches; Federer plays D.C. doubles (successfully), Nadal only singles. Of the four Cups generally credited to Nadal (without looking at the actual round-by-round records), he led the team only once (2011), the other three times he was a successful contributor (mostly part-time),
but did not lead the charge. Nadal's D.C. singles record certainly shows what a preternatural competitor he is, but part of the D.C. analysis is your contribution to your country over your own personal tournament goals.
For years and years at his peak, Fed never shirked the call.




And Federer superior to Nadal ? This is also very debatable.

 

BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
Here my seeded players of an open 1964 Wimbledon as maybe the committee would have ranked.

1 Rosewall
2 Laver
3 Gonzalez
4 Gimeno
5 Emerson
6 Buchholz
7 Hoad
8 McKinley (holder of the amateur event)
9 Sedgman
10 Olmedo
11 Santana
12 Osuna
13 Anderson
14 MacKay
15 Ralston
16 Stolle

Thus 10 pros and 6 amateurs

And here the seedings for an open 1960 Wimbledon.

1 Gonzalez
2 Rosewall
3 Hoad
4 Sedgman
5 Cooper
6 Olmedo (holder)
7 Fraser
8 Trabert
9 Segura
10 MacKay
11 Laver
12 Anderson
13 Ayala
14 Pietrangeli
15 Emerson
16 Gimeno

Thus 9 pros and 7 amateurs
 

BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
Mr. Colussi: You are a brilliant tennis historian and I agree with you on many things. But I must take issue on your Nadal-Federer analysis.

One point: your general assertion that peak Nadal better than peak Federer on most surfaces. Except for slow hardcourt, you did not specify "most surfaces." But besides Clay Obviously, what are the other surfaces you refer to?

Grass? 7 Wimbledons to 2; 8 titles at Halle versus 1 Queens and 1 Stuggart

Fast Hardcourt - 7 Cinncinnati Masters 1000 to 1

Medium Hardcourt - 5 U.S. Opens to 2

Slow Hardcourt - 3 Sunshine Doubles to zero; 4 AO to 1 (they say this year's AO was fast so I don't count it in Federer's
favor)

Indoors: 4 of Roger's 6 WTF or Masters Cups won indoors versus zero WTFs for Rafa; Federer 22 Indoor titles versus 2 (yes, two) for Nadal.

Another point you assert: Nadal peak superior on slow hardcourt. See above, three Sunshine Doubles to zero. (And, I might add, "slow hardcourt" is a contemporary phenomenon, what we now call hardcourts hardly existed as significant tournament surfaces until well into the 1970s, with the Pacific Southwest and Pacific Coast Championships practically the only two cement-based tournaments of note before the open era. And the hardcourt tournaments were generally fast courts from 1970s until early this century. My point being, the slow hardcourt may be very much of the moment, but it doesn't have historical pedigree, and, as shown above, it looks like Rafa would not have done so well on fast indoor courts (or fast outdoor courts) that made up the vast majority of top-flight tennis traditionally [obviously I am talking mostly "Pro" tennis here in pre-Open terms]. Rafa is a great, extraordinary player and fighter and tactician,and would have adjusted, but I don't think the ultra-fast indoor wood courts of the later French Pro, or the canvass laid over ice rinks of the Pro Tours would have been Rafa's thing. Federer, on the other hand, would have thrived on such surfaces.

Third: Nadal Clear Davis Cup superiority. Technically accurate but problematic. Nadal has been stingy, Federer giving. Nadal has best historical singles percentage in Davis Cup, but only 23 matches (give or take one) versus nearly 50 Federer singles matches; Federer plays D.C. doubles (successfully), Nadal only singles. Of the four Cups generally credited to Nadal (without looking at the actual round-by-round records), he led the team only once (2011), the other three times he was a successful contributor (mostly part-time),
but did not lead the charge. Nadal's D.C. singles record certainly shows what a preternatural competitor he is, but part of the D.C. analysis is your contribution to your country over your own personal tournament goals.
For years and years at his peak, Fed never shirked the call.

Drob, Good points.

A minor point: The Germans may say "Stuggart" but the correct name is Stuttgart.
 

hoodjem

G.O.A.T.
An interview with: ROGER FEDERER
Saturday, August 25, 2012

THE MODERATOR: Questions, please.

But then best ever? The four of us? That’s a really difficult call.
Here, let me help: Murray is a mug, Djoker is a has-been. So, maybe you and Rafa are still pretty good, but the four of you?
Nope.


The four best ever?
Laver, Gonzales, Tilden, and Connolly.
 
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Dan Lobb

G.O.A.T.
It's all speculation on my part anyway so it really doesn't matter. To be honest I don't know how much extra training would've done for him considering how much the back injuries must've taken from him. It doesn't matter I concede that Hoad could've been seeded if one used logic but also a logical case could be made for him not being seeded. As you could tell I wasn't sure to begin with and I originally did seed him.
Hoad could not be seeded at all....he had officially retired in the fall of 1966, and played only briefly in 1967 at the Wimbledon Pro event, about two weeks more after that, hardly at all in 1968, mainly for Wimbledon.
In late 1969, he unretired and played a few more events.
 
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70sHollywood

Guest
Hoad could not be seeded at all....he had officially retired in the fall of 1966, and played only briefly in 1967 at the Wimbledon Pro event, about two weeks more after that, hardly at all in 1968, mainly for Wimbledon.
In late 1969, he unretired and played a few more events.

Safe to assume he would have come out of retirement for an Open Wimbledon. Considering his high seeding in 1968 lack of activity would not have been an issue.
 

BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
Hoad could not be seeded at all....he had officially retired in the fall of 1966, and played only briefly in 1967 at the Wimbledon Pro event, about two weeks more after that, hardly at all in 1968, mainly for Wimbledon.
In late 1969, he unretired and played a few more events.

Dan Lobb, You blame yourself as a Hoad expert. Hoad did play also the 1967 South African circuit (six tournaments) and the Wembley tournament where he won a set from Buchholz and reached the doubles final. In 1968 he played five tournaments.
 

pc1

G.O.A.T.
It was something like letting a past Masters golf champion from way back play the first two rounds.
That's why I debated on whether Hoad should be seeded at all. The injuries and lack of a full tournament schedule plus the age is tough for anyone, even a person who began with the great physical and skill talent of Lew Hoad. Sure I took into consideration I felt the pros were tougher than the amateurs but Hoad did not do much at that point. Any player can have some close matches with top players but in a long five set match would people really take Hoad over Okker or Ashe or Emerson in 1967? I don't think they would although I can see the other side.
 
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70sHollywood

Guest
It was a gift.

Then it could have been a gift in 1967 too.

But why gift somebody the number 7 seed? Why not 16? Why the randomness of number 7?

It's highly debatable whether Hoad would be been seeded if they did it the way they do it now.

Well he definitely wouldn't. They have a points system now. Depending on how they implemented such a system back then it is possible Rosewall and not Laver would have been the number 1 seed in 1968.
 

pc1

G.O.A.T.
Then it could have been a gift in 1967 too.

But why gift somebody the number 7 seed? Why not 16? Why the randomness of number 7?



Well he definitely wouldn't. They have a points system now. Depending on how they implemented such a system back then it is possible Rosewall and not Laver would have been the number 1 seed in 1968.
They probably seeded him number seven mainly due to his name and what they felt his strength was as a player. Seeding was so random in those days and based on opinion.
 
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BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
And here the seedings for an open 1960 Wimbledon.

1 Gonzalez
2 Rosewall
3 Hoad
4 Sedgman
5 Cooper
6 Olmedo (holder)
7 Fraser
8 Trabert
9 Segura
10 MacKay
11 Laver
12 Anderson
13 Ayala
14 Pietrangeli
15 Emerson
16 Gimeno

Thus 9 pros and 7 amateurs

pc1, Regarding Hoad: Lew would not have to play five sets against Okker or Ashe. He probably would beat Okker in 3 and Ashe in 3 or 4 sets.
 
That's why I debated on whether Hoad should be seeded at all. The injuries and lack of a full tournament schedule plus the age is tough for anyone, even a person who began with the great physical and skill talent of Lew Hoad. Sure I took into consideration I felt the pros were tougher than the amateurs but Hoad did not do much at that point. Any player can have some close matches with top players but in a long five set match would people really take Hoad over Okker or Ashe or Emerson in 1967? I don't think they would although I can see the other side.
Hoad beat is old rival Conzales 46 86 119 in the 1967 Wimbledon Pro not bad for a part timer.TW
 

pc1

G.O.A.T.
Hoad beat is old rival Conzales 46 86 119 in the 1967 Wimbledon Pro not bad for a part timer.TW
And that was superb but I was thinking of a reasonable seeding and whether an injured old Hoad would do well at an Open Wimbledon in 1967. I'm of the opinion that Hoad shouldn't be seeded but it's all speculation anyway. Unless we had a magic genie no one will know.

My first thought was that Hoad should be seeded but I thought to myself whether that was reasonable or was I just being impressed by the name. I looked at his results and concluded that I couldn't reasonably seed him. No big deal either way.
 

BobbyOne

G.O.A.T.
tom, I'm not sure if Hoad or Gonzalez would have been seeded No.1 that year. Both players are a good choice.

Here my seeded players of 1939 as the committee could have ranked. I used the original seeding list (8 amateurs).

1 Budge (holder)
2 Vines
3 Perry
4 Nüsslein
5 Von Cramm
6 Austin
7 Riggs
8 McNeill
9 Puncec
10 Tilden
11 Henkel
12 Cooke
13 Cochet
14 Stoefen
15 Menzel
16 Ramillon or Tloczynski

Thus 8 or 7 pros and 8 or 9 amateurs.
 

hoodjem

G.O.A.T.
Little Mo Connolly, inch for inch maybe the best.
Yep. If you check out the scores of her slam matches in 1953-54, she was hardly challenged.

She was often crushing her opponents: e.g. in the entire 1954 French championships she lost a total of 15 games in all rounds.
 
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krosero

Legend
I also don't know the exact history of when the kind of small tourneys of the late 60s and early 70s mostly stopped. I'm assuming it would have been when the ATP was fully established and there were no longer competing organizations splitting the field. My focus started totally from 1991 to the present, and that's where me data is solid. I've been gradually moving back because I wanted to see how the trends going on right now compare going back in time.
Yeah the small tourneys continued well into the 80s. I'm more familiar with the ones from the early 70s but Lendl, Mac, Borg, Connors all played plenty of "invitationals", many of them 4-man events. The administration of these events is another question and they may not have been the same ones that Laver and Rosewall played in the early 70s but yeah in general you can say that "small-draw" events continued right through the 80s.

To get some idea of how vast all this activity was, just compare the official ATP tournament totals for Connors and Lendl against their true totals. With older players the gap is even larger, for a number of reasons.

Anyway I've run the same numbers for Gonzalez that I did for Laver above, comparing win % in majors against non-majors.

Again I'm following very generally the format at Wiki, with 4 GS majors and 3 pro majors: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_Gonzales#Performance_timeline_for_major_tournaments

But the numbers are my own, using my own sources.

Amateur years:

All matches: 211-34 (86.12%)
Majors: 20-3 (86.96%)


Open Era:

All matches: 174-112 (60.84%)
Majors: 24-12 (66.67%)


Old Pro Tour:

All matches: 436-154 (73.90%) (tournaments only; no one-night stands)
Pro Majors: 67-16 (80.72%) [9-4 French, 24-7 Wembley, 34-5 US]


So in the OE his win percentage was about 6 points higher in majors than in non-majors. On the old pro tour, about 7 points higher. In the amateurs, not much of a difference at all.

We saw that with Laver too. I think that may be because the amateur game just didn't have the type of small-draw tournaments that dominated the old pro tour and still proliferated in the early Open Era. The amateur game had no shortage of players and it was not uncommon for purely local, city championships to have 6 or even 7 rounds.

I've got numbers for Rosewall but I just need to break down his GS numbers into amateur and Open.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Yeah the small tourneys continued well into the 80s. I'm more familiar with the ones from the early 70s but Lendl, Mac, Borg, Connors all played plenty of "invitationals", many of them 4-man events. The administration of these events is another question and they may not have been the same ones that Laver and Rosewall played in the early 70s but yeah in general you can say that "small-draw" events continued right through the 80s.

To get some idea of how vast all this activity was, just compare the official ATP tournament totals for Connors and Lendl against their true totals. With older players the gap is even larger, for a number of reasons.
I don't have the full list for any of these players, but I know that when you include invitationals and such the numbers go down. That's pretty clear. For instance, if I take all your matches in the OE for guys like Mac and Connors and compare them with all matches counted by the ATP, your list will be lower in match% and game%. It's pretty clear why that is - fewer rounds.

But I'm also very iffy about the importance of those invitationals. If they paid a lot of money AND had a huge amount of press, then I would tend to think they were important. However, today we know that guys get matches that are more or less expos. There may be a lot of money involved, but does anyone take them seriously?

The difference to me is that in the 50s and 60s there may not have been huge crowds at almost any given event, and we more or less have to take them into consideration.

I'm not sure if their importance diminished quickly, nor do I know at what point we could consider them no longer important. I'm guess that over time they were more or less phased out so far as importance is concerned.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
[Gonzalez]
But the numbers are my own, using my own sources.

Amateur years:

All matches: 211-34 (86.12%)
Majors: 20-3 (86.96%)
As you say later, no small fields in those amateur years...
Open Era:

All matches: 174-112 (60.84%)
Majors: 24-12 (66.67%)
No surprise there. His record follows the pattern of most of the ATGs in the OE, and everything is much lower because of his age.
Old Pro Tour:

All matches: 436-154 (73.90%) (tournaments only; no one-night stands)
Pro Majors: 67-16 (80.72%) [9-4 French, 24-7 Wembley, 34-5 US]
That's your area. I don't have any data for that period. But doesn't it follow the norm for that period?
The amateur game had no shortage of players and it was not uncommon for purely local, city championships to have 6 or even 7 rounds.
The only surprise there is that the non-majors are not a bit lower, but then again we might not expect very young players to be marshaling their strength and energy for majors, much more likely and common for aging players, I think.
I've got numbers for Rosewall but I just need to break down his GS numbers into amateur and Open.
I'll be interested in those results. So far I think we are seeing that in the OE it is normal for top players to have better stats in majors than outside of them. It appears that the same idea is true of the pro-era.
 

hoodjem

G.O.A.T.
Yes as a matter of fact i can recall it and they were saying they had Lew as favorite but they did not realise that Lew s fuel tank was empty.!!! TW
Agreed.
Between his bad back and time away from the tour, Hoad was a shadow of his former greatness, with only occasional flashes of brilliance.
 
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