Roger Federer: ´I Missed My Chances´

[AceSalvo]

-------------------UE----BP------BP Won%
2006 FO---------51-----3/10----30%
2007 FO---------60----1/17-----6%
2008 Wimb-----52----1/13-----8%
2009 AO-------- 64----6/19-----32%
2009 USO-------62----5/22-----23%
2011 FO---------56----5/15-----33%
2014 Wimb-----29-----3/7------43% (the best match in this list)
2015 Wimb-----35-----1/7------14%
2015 USO-------54-----4/23----17%

Big Time. I think in Roger's case "Old habits die hard". It was in plain sight for his team to analyze. I dont think Edberg or even Rod Laver would have had an actual impact.

The trend is astonishing especially against peak baseliners regardless of court/conditions. Nadal has for ever etched something in Rogers head.

 

[Legend of Borg]

23 BP chances

 

[xan]

Novaks 1st serve was abysmal at times.

 

[SublimeTennis]

-------------------UE----BP------BP Won%
2006 FO---------51-----3/10----30%
2007 FO---------60----1/17-----6%
2008 Wimb-----52----1/13-----8%
2009 AO-------- 64----6/19-----32%
2009 USO-------62----5/22-----23%
2011 FO---------56----5/15-----33%
2014 Wimb-----29-----3/7------43% (the best match in this list)
2015 Wimb-----35-----1/7------14%
2015 USO-------54-----4/23----17%

Big Time. I think in Roger's case "Old habits die hard". It was in plain sight for his team to analyze. I dont think Edberg or even Rod Laver would have had an actual impact.

The trend is astonishing especially against peak baseliners regardless of court/conditions. Nadal has for ever etched something in Rogers head.

Some lose speed, reflexes with age, Fed's lost his nerve, he was scared out of his mind, anyone who knows how to see, look at his facial muscles, he choked, baseline with a baseliner when you've been killing everyone coming forward? I'm done with Federer, tired of being disappointed with him because he chokes.

 

[merwy]

2014W is a match where fed really hung on with pure grit but just couldn't hang on until the end (he loves making those almost-comebacks).
But I did feel like Novak was the better player there, fed just made good use of every opportunity he got.

Last night felt like the complete opposite. Federer was capable of playing at an extremely high level (as he showed in glimpses of the match, and over the course of the last month), but was just blowing it with stupid errors that he just cannot be making at this stage. He made some ridiculous errors on the most important points. And when he wasn't making stupid errors, he was playing way too passively.
It still bothers me how nervously he started the match. It was just errors all over the place. It was SO important for him to start strong and grab that first set. Now he was constantly down in the score.
As is typical for him, he went out with another almost-comeback. Like he did in W2008 and W2014.

 

[Anaconda]

OP failed to mention that Federer won a lot of matches he shouldn't have.

 

[BounceHitBounceHit]

-------------------UE----BP------BP Won%
2006 FO---------51-----3/10----30%
2007 FO---------60----1/17-----6%
2008 Wimb-----52----1/13-----8%
2009 AO-------- 64----6/19-----32%
2009 USO-------62----5/22-----23%
2011 FO---------56----5/15-----33%
2014 Wimb-----29-----3/7------43% (the best match in this list)
2015 Wimb-----35-----1/7------14%
2015 USO-------54-----4/23----17%

Big Time. I think in Roger's case "Old habits die hard". It was in plain sight for his team to analyze. I dont think Edberg or even Rod Laver would have had an actual impact.

The trend is astonishing especially against peak baseliners regardless of court/conditions. Nadal has for ever etched something in Rogers head.

The 2007 FO and 2008 Wimby finals were almost unbearable for me, and last night's match fell in a similar vein. This is the 'dark side' of an otherwise stunning resume. What would the GS count look like with a steady 35% conversion rate?????

 

[Charlemagne]

It's just saddening. Despite all he's accomplished, idk, it's just sad.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

I give Novak props for saving them all. He is the ultimate champion now and inside Roger head, but then, I don't know. I'm amazed at what Roger did. I enjoyed the match last night.

Credit to both men.

 

[NEW_BORN]

Federer's groundstrokes are generally ultra-risky compared to traditional baseliners like Djokovic and Nadal, his game just doesn't allow him to play safe.
But if he is to compete against these 2 in best of 5 matches and win, then he has no other choice but to learn to keep the ball in play in long extended rallies.
The days of winning by making 70 winners to 50ues are over. The guy making less errors will almost always be victor at the end of the day.
The best defense will almost always beat the best offense. It's no surprise that most coaches will tell you that defense wins championships.

 

[jm1980]

-------------------UE----BP------BP Won%
2007 FO---------60----1/17-----6%
2008 Wimb-----52----1/13-----8%

 

[AceSalvo]

OP failed to mention that Federer won a lot of matches he shouldn't have.

I can say the same about other players as well.. I just highlighted the main reason why Roger missed a couple of slams, at the least, especially against Nole/Nadal.. Roger always has Murray in his pocket..

 

[norbac]

He's just not a clutch player. He should watch some tape from Novak in big points and hope that helps.

 

[BGod]

The way he'd set up the break point opportunities and then go to a conservative baseline rally right after. I was in awe of how pantsless the man was.

I believe he thinks way too much about his age and therefore goes for the safe approach and it never serves him well against the grinders.

 

[RF20Lennon]

Federer honestly has lost his mental edge with age. That's what cost him the match. If had taken the opportunities up 4-3 he would've wrapped it up in 4.

 

[AceSalvo]

Federer honestly has lost his mental edge with age. That's what cost him the match. If had taken the opportunities up 4-3 he would've wrapped it up in 4.

yes.. I think Rogers gets caught up in thinking too much about the way he has to finish points like when he was young, you know the winning days.. in the process, he ends up being at a disadvantage, by not focusing on the best shot selection.. he just cant keep the ball in play as he used to consistently esp against Nole/Nadal.. one would think Roger kinda knows that, but the stats say something else.. or maybe he does..

 

[MasturB]

Kind of sad the US Open is supposed to be faster than Cincy and Dubai, but it's actually slower.

Balls were just sitting to Novak, Fed really couldn't penetrate the court.

 

[SpinToWin]

He's just not a clutch player. He should watch some tape from Novak in big points and hope that helps.

Like the French Open 2013?

 

[YetAnotherFedFan]

What's clear to me reading this thread is that people are living their fantasies through Federer and are emotionally ill equipped to cope, when their fantasy doesn't play out as expected.

 

[AngryBirds]

Federer honestly has lost his mental edge with age. That's what cost him the match. If had taken the opportunities up 4-3 he would've wrapped it up in 4.

Nope. The match would have gone to the 5th set and Novak would still have the upper hand.

 

[scotus]

Kind of sad the US Open is supposed to be faster than Cincy and Dubai, but it's actually slower.

Balls were just sitting to Novak, Fed really couldn't penetrate the court.

Novak mentioned that the court played faster this year than in previous years.

 

[Enga]

What's clear to me reading this thread is that people are living their fantasies through Federer and are emotionally ill equipped to cope, when their fantasy doesn't play out as expected.

Yeh, I mean, I like Federer and enjoy watching his games, but its not so sad to me if he loses. He has already won everything anyway...

 

[tennis_pro]

He's just not a clutch player. He should watch some tape from Novak in big points and hope that helps.

I wonder how clutch Djokovic is going to be in his 30's.

 

[RF20Lennon]

Nope. The match would have gone to the 5th set and Novak would still have the upper hand.

No. Federer would have enough momentum to close it out in 4.

 

[Wilander Fan]

I dont think its an age thing. You can see Federer has had trouble with BP conversion even back in his prime. I think grass BP conversions tend to be alot lower because servers have a big advantage but his FO BP percentage...especially 07 are mind boggling because serving is not as much of a factor on clay. Especially Nadal who just used it to start points.

I also dont think you can give alot of credit to Novak on saving break points. It was mostly a case of Federer being indecisive and timid on those chances. It was sad to see him return aggressively sending close to the box and then retreat back behind the baseline.

I think the main thing I noticed was that Federer was rushing himself on his shots. Especially his FH. I honestly dont think those half volley baseline strokes have much effect on Novak or Rafa because they are going to get to those and those shots dont have enough pace to force them into a passive shot. Its why Wawrinka has troubled these guys recently. He hits a big shot to get them to choke up defensive shots and puts those away. Federer has kind of sacrificed bit baseline shots for early hitting to take away time but that just doesn't work well against guys who are fast retrievers. Its the reason guys like Monfils are suddenly troubling Federer now. If he is not going to all out attack and go to the net, he should really take a step back and try to hit the ball properly.

 

[Jaitock1991]

One thing that these stats fail to show is the amount of second serves he's had a look on during all these break points. In Sunday's match, they weren't few.

 

[TheMusicLover]

The way he'd set up the break point opportunities and then go to a conservative baseline rally right after. I was in awe of how pantsless the man was.

Well said. You really wonder what went on in the bloke's upper department, especially when having BPs on a SECOND serve - 11 of them! - and then just coming up with a meek, sloppy return at best.
If it didn't float into the net or into the tramrails immediately.

I believe he thinks way too much about his age and therefore goes for the safe approach and it never serves him well against the grinders.

I really question whether this is all too much a matter of age, I mean, he did the total opposite in Toronto and Cincy, and it payed out very well indeed. The age matter apparently wasn't a factor there, so why should it be a couple of weeks later at the USO?

I blame it on nerves most of all, and this might well be where his age indeed plays a role - realizing that this might well have been (one of) his last chance(s) to ever win a GS again.
In such circumstances apparently his mental fortitude went in some kind of remission state - he wasn't exactly the most clutch player in his early days either.

Anyways, it was a damn sad sight to witness. In contrary to his earlier GS losses agains Djok, I dare to conclude that at this occasion it wasn't as much a matter of Djokovic winning the match, but rather of Fed losing it.
(NB: this is NOT meant as a derogatory comment to Djokovic, rather in contrary, kudos to him for keeping his cool, while not exactly being at his best himself either. Deserved victory!)

 

[TheNatural]

the big question is why is he falling apart on the big points? Maybe he is over thinking things on the big points instead of playing the same way that he plays the rest of the time.

 

[TommyA8X]

Well said. You really wonder what went on in the bloke's upper department, especially when having BPs on a SECOND serve - 11 of them! - and then just coming up with a meek, sloppy return at best.
If it didn't float into the net or into the tramrails immediately.


I really question whether this is all too much a matter of age, I mean, he did the total opposite in Toronto and Cincy, and it payed out very well indeed. The age matter apparently wasn't a factor there, so why should it be a couple of weeks later at the USO?

I blame it on nerves most of all, and this might well be where his age indeed plays a role - realizing that this might well have been (one of) his last chance(s) to ever win a GS again.
In such circumstances apparently his mental fortitude went in some kind of remission state - he wasn't exactly the most clutch player in his early days either.

Anyways, it was a damn sad sight to witness. In contrary to his earlier GS losses agains Djok, I dare to conclude that at this occasion it wasn't as much a matter of Djokovic winning the match, but rather of Fed losing it.
(NB: this is NOT meant as a derogatory comment to Djokovic, rather in contrary, kudos to him for keeping his cool, while not exactly being at his best himself either. Deserved victory!)

I agree. Djokovic was trying his best to choke the match away and give the title to Fed (numerous loose games, DFs, brainfarts...). Fed simply refused to take the gifts and out choked Djokovic.
Fed was nervous throughout the match. He started with 40% of 1st serves in and dumbed a very easy putaway volley into the net to get broken in the first set.
2nd set, he played better but still missed huge chances to wrap it up earlier. I think everyone remembers that super easy FH which went long.
3rd and 4th sets were pathetic. A million missed chances, Fed comletely forgeting to come to the net until he was double break down in the 4th.
All in all, probably his worst slam final ever. At least at the FO he was playing Nadal, the greatest cc ever. Djokovic was never that good at the USO, and he wasn't that impressive in this final either.

 

[Omega_7000]

Federer has lost his precision game aND a good serve alone isn't enough to beat Novak.

 

[dh003i]

I agree. Djokovic was trying his best to choke the match away and give the title to Fed (numerous loose games, DFs, brainfarts...).

That's why I say Djokovic isn't a mentally strong player. Anyone who looks at that match and says it highlights mental strength saw a different match than I did. If Federer hadn't come out a tight error-machine, Djokovic would have been demolished. Fortunately for Djokovic, Fed also came out tight.

Again, mental strength is overrated and more complicated than people think. For example, it takes more mental strength to play Federer's game than Djokovic's, as Djokovic's game is more simple, based on defense as the core.

 

[Levi_Ackerman]

Some lose speed, reflexes with age, Fed's lost his nerve, he was scared out of his mind, anyone who knows how to see, look at his facial muscles, he choked, baseline with a baseliner when you've been killing everyone coming forward? I'm done with Federer, tired of being disappointed with him because he chokes.

 

[TheMusicLover]

Federer has lost his precision game aND a good serve alone isn't enough to beat Novak.

Well, Fed's serve was a major mess here too, especially in that 1st set.

My main beef with this loss is that it actually was a very winnable match for Fed. Djokovic didn't reach his best level by far (his serve was off for a lot of the match just the same) and he surely didn't play any better than he did in Cincy.
Of course, USO court is slower, conditions were different, but still - there's no excuse for Fed playing as tamely as he did.

 

[Mainad]

It seems to be becoming a familiar pattern in their recent Slam final encounters. They have now played 3 in just over a year and in each case, Federer came in on the back of a great tournament dismissing his earlier opponents with ease and then plays sub-par against Djokovic in the final. His serve is off, his forehand misfires which was not the case in his earlier rounds.

I think Djokovic is in Federer's head now just like he is in the heads of practically everyone else. He makes you nervous and forces you to play worse than you can. The sign of a truly great player!

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

-------------------UE----BP------BP Won%
2006 FO---------51-----3/10----30%
2007 FO---------60----1/17-----6%
2008 Wimb-----52----1/13-----8%
2009 AO-------- 64----6/19-----32%
2009 USO-------62----5/22-----23%
2011 FO---------56----5/15-----33%
2014 Wimb-----29-----3/7------43% (the best match in this list)
2015 Wimb-----35-----1/7------14%
2015 USO-------54-----4/23----17%

Big Time. I think in Roger's case "Old habits die hard". It was in plain sight for his team to analyze. I dont think Edberg or even Rod Laver would have had an actual impact.

The trend is astonishing especially against peak baseliners regardless of court/conditions. Nadal has for ever etched something in Rogers head.

Nice but it would be fair to have the same stats for the finals he won.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

Career stats, Federer 41% conversion of BP
Nadal 45% and Djokovic 44%
Murray 43% and Wawrinka 40%

Nadal has more success on clay, Djokovic and Murray return better than Federer, overall nothing wrong with these numbers

 

[OhYes]

Federer was out of this world returning Novak's serve. He was good at net, Novak had some amazing SABR controlling but Federer still won in that department. You just can't be perfect on everything.
Novak's determination to save his own serve was astonishing, and although he couldn't hit 1st serve for quite some time - he still made it.

 

[mike danny]

This is what not winning a slam in 3 years does to you. You become nervous in the final.

This is why I sincerely believe Federer has a greater chance to beat Novak in a semi than in a final. In a semi he doesn't have any reasons to be nervous knowing that there would still be work to be done.

Even in the W 2012 final he was nervous but was a bit fortunate Murray was even more nervous with it being his home slam and never winning a slam before that.

IMO he doesn't need a victory over Novak in a slam final. He needs a slam, period, in order to get that monkey off his back. That way he would beat Novak too in a slam final.

Let's see how well Novak will be playing at 34 in a slam final.

 

[Gazelle]

Anyone think Fed should have done SABR on every BP on second serve? I think he would have gone better than 1/11.

Actually I was surprised Fed SABRd so little. He only did 8 times winning 50% of them (which was better than his overall 44% won on Djoks 2nd serve). He seemed scared to do it.

 

[xan]

That's why I say Djokovic isn't a mentally strong player. Anyone who looks at that match and says it highlights mental strength saw a different match than I did.

Yes, i saw a different match since i had my glasses off.
Please show me other matches where crowd is 98% behind other player and he still comes out a winner.
You wouldnt recognize mental strength if it were to hit you on the forhead.

 

[Gazelle]

That's why I say Djokovic isn't a mentally strong player. Anyone who looks at that match and says it highlights mental strength saw a different match than I did. If Federer hadn't come out a tight error-machine, Djokovic would have been demolished. Fortunately for Djokovic, Fed also came out tight.

Again, mental strength is overrated and more complicated than people think. For example, it takes more mental strength to play Federer's game than Djokovic's, as Djokovic's game is more simple, based on defense as the core.

True. Djok is not very strong mentally (but strong enough at moment). He's been pushing all year and got exposed at RG by Wawrinka, where he didn't have the guts to play more aggressively when it was required. But Fed is weaker at the moment. He has shown he can play that aggressive game without making many errors, like he did in Cincy. But then in USO final he starts making stupid errors all over the place. That's not the fault of his game, but of nerves. Like some poster pointed out, you can see his facial muscles contracted when he's nervous. I've been watching Fed for years, and I easily recognize when he's nervous. Contracted facial muscles he always had against Rafa, rarely against Murray, but now also against Djokovic.

 

[xan]

^same goes for you above. But you dislike him with a passion so i cant say im surprised.

 

[TU87]

In the course of any game Fed was weaker as the game got to the end. That is why he was only 17% on BP and Djokovic was 46% on BP. Djokovic was mentally the tougher player at the end of games. Look at Fed's service game at 4-4 in the 3rd set, he is up 40-15 on his own serve and loses the game.

 

[fhdowntheline]

To sum up, Djoker squandered many opportunities to make this a quick match (not that it mattered in the end) , and Federer squandered many opportunities to prolong it.
And the not-so minor point of him getting repeatedly pinned to the ad court , exposing the full deuce court on many points, scrambling all the way to hit that weak "squash" shot. Thats when you realize he's 34+.

I'd say that strategy worked better for Djoker than SABR for Fed.

 

[TU87]

2014W is a match where fed really hung on with pure grit but just couldn't hang on until the end (he loves making those almost-comebacks).
But I did feel like Novak was the better player there, fed just made good use of every opportunity he got.

Last night felt like the complete opposite. Federer was capable of playing at an extremely high level (as he showed in glimpses of the match, and over the course of the last month), but was just blowing it with stupid errors that he just cannot be making at this stage. He made some ridiculous errors on the most important points. And when he wasn't making stupid errors, he was playing way too passively.
It still bothers me how nervously he started the match. It was just errors all over the place. It was SO important for him to start strong and grab that first set. Now he was constantly down in the score.
As is typical for him, he went out with another almost-comeback. Like he did in W2008 and W2014.

Agree. With each major win that Djokovic gets over Fed, Djokovic gets mentally stronger and Fed gets mentally weaker. You could see that Sunday. Sunday was the product of W2014 and W2015

 

[TommyA8X]

Career stats, Federer 41% conversion of BP
Nadal 45% and Djokovic 44%
Murray 43% and Wawrinka 40%

Nadal has more success on clay, Djokovic and Murray return better than Federer, overall nothing wrong with these numbers

41% is OK. 17% on the other hand is criminal in major finals. Lets not even mention 1/11 on break points on 2nd serves.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

41% is OK. 17% on the other hand is criminal in major finals. Lets not even mention 1/11 on break points on 2nd serves.

Yes but thats why i said we should have the stats of the finals he won as well, here we focus only on the losses. Ups and downs are normal for any tennis player thats why the big picture is more interesting

 

[Emiliano55]

Interesting stats.

Its like "if I don't play Roddick or Hewitt then I choke"...

And you guys think Federer is the GOAT ? Geez, the dude didn't even win 1 epic match against the big ones in his entire career. He had the chance in 2014 Wimby and on Sunday, and failed again.

He deserves to be surpassed by Nadal or Djokovic. Honestly.

 

[Omega_7000]

Interesting stats.

Its like "if I don't play Roddick or Hewitt then I choke"...

And you guys think Federer is the GOAT ? Geez, the dude didn't even win 1 epic match against the big ones in his entire career. He had the chance in 2014 Wimby and on Sunday, and failed again.

He deserves to be surpassed by Nadal or Djokovic. Honestly.

Nadal is 29 and isn't even reaching finals anymore. He choked his match against Fognini. Not the #1 player in his prime but Fognini. He's been losing to mugs at Wimbledon 4 years in a row...But yeah don't let that get in the way of your hatred for Federer.

Also let's see how many times 33/34 year old Novak "chokes" when he plays someone 6 years younger.

 

[Emiliano55]

Nadal is 29 and isn't even reaching finals anymore. He choked his match against Fognini. Not the #1 player in his prime but Fognini. He's been losing to mugs at Wimbledon 4 years in a row...But yeah don't let that get in the way of your hatred for Federer.

Also let's see how many times 33/34 year old Novak "chokes" when he plays someone 6 years younger.

What the hell has this bad year of Nadal to do with this ?

Nadal has beaten Roger in A LOT epic matches. He has beaten Roger in HIS BACKYARD in 2008, he has beaten Roger in the AO in a terrific 5 setter, when everybody was expecting Roger to take revenge in hardcourts. He has beaten Roger 4 times at RG, some of them being incredible. He has beaten Djokovic in epics RG matches when he was about to lose his crown according to all the press.
Same goes for Djokovic, a TON of epic matches won against Nadal and Federer. Both players have win a ton of epic matches, and A LOT of them were against who ? Yes, you guessed it, Federer.

You cannot just simply come here and say "Nadal lost to Fognini" bla bla bla. The Spaniard is having a terrible year, everybody knows that, and due to his years in the circuit, it was normal it was going to happen someday. However, the fact that Nadal had a bad 2015 doesn't took off all the merits he did in his entire career. Merits Federer never could do, unless he had Hewitts, Roddicks, young Djokovic, Gonzalez and Baghdatis in the finals.

So, stop the BS about Roger being old. The dude didn't reach a final as fresh as he did at this USO since AO 2007. Do you understand that ? Federer folding and choking in really big matches against these 2 players in his prime happened always, not now that he is 34 y/o.

Think for 2 minutes before posting, thank you.