I think you are right. Fed has probably 2 chances left (Wimbledon16, UsOpen16), at most 4 chances left (W/US 2017). If he wins Halle, i think he has a reasonable chance to win one of them if Novak slips. I also think there is a chance Novak might slip after his huge achievement of winning the last 4 slams. With Novak its impossible to say. If he stays injury-free and keeps the fitness he will have tons of chances. But I think its easy to forget how tough it is to win a slam. To get to 18, Novak still needs the number his coach used his whole career to achieve, and Novak is 29.A key part of it will be Federer not getting 18 himself. If he stays at 17, I think ND has a reasonable chance, but not much margin for error.
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