Roger Federer Unsure About Playing Rolex Paris Masters 2019

ChrisRF

Legend
I get what you're trying to say, but... it's incorrect. Look at Jack Sock's Bercy win. Which Top8 did he beat? Did he even beat a single Top20?

Some knock on WTF bc you can win it by losing a match (two if it's extreme). But you simply cannot win it without beating at least 4 Top10 in most cases. It's VERY rare that you have to beat that many Top10s to win any other tournament. Some can be won without beating a single Top10 (see Sock's Bercy title).
As I said, the top players have to be present and also have to be seriously contesting for the title. When Sock won Paris, Federer and Djokovic were absent and Nadal pulled out with an injury.

But if they are there in full power and motivation but just lose to someone else who is then beaten by the eventual winner, then the winner has beaten them as well IMO. Tennis is about beating full draws directly AND indirectly.

I think the Paris Masters suffers from top players being not interested because of more points (and also money) to gain at WTF. If that wouldn’t be the case, then Paris surely would be the bigger event in a purely competitive sense.
 

oldmanfan

Legend
As I said, the top players have to be present and also have to be seriously contesting for the title. When Sock won Paris, Federer and Djokovic were absent and Nadal pulled out with an injury.

But if they are there in full power and motivation but just lose to someone else who is then beaten by the eventual winner, then the winner has beaten them as well IMO. Tennis is about beating full draws directly AND indirectly.

I think the Paris Masters suffers from top players being not interested because of more points (and also money) to gain at WTF. If that wouldn’t be the case, then Paris surely would be the bigger event in a purely competitive sense.

I get you. But forget the rest of the field outside Top8 for a sec. If Bercy ONLY has Top8 playing and nobody else, then you can win the title by beating only 3 Top8. You almost cannot do that to win the WTF, which almost always require 4 Top8 wins. Not only that, the motivation is different; more points and money per win. On average, WTF is simply harder to win than full draw masters. They're usually much harder to win bc of the pts/money motivation.
 
Lol. These Nadal haters don't even realize that Nadal going far in Paris and WTF is pretty much the only thing which can save Federer's weeks at #1 record.

Those are two completely separate issues really. It is a coincidence that now they are influencing one another.

:cool:
 

ChrisRF

Legend
I get you. But forget the rest of the field outside Top8 for a sec. If Bercy ONLY has Top8 playing and nobody else, then you can win the title by beating only 3 Top8. You almost cannot do that to win the WTF, which almost always require 4 Top8 wins. Not only that, the motivation is different; more points and money per win. On average, WTF is simply harder to win than full draw masters. They're usually much harder to win bc of the pts/money motivation.
I understand your thoughts as well. I guess it’s a matter of perspective.

Generally WTF is more difficult to win than just “a Masters tournament” because it only happens once per year. To make a fair comparison we have to pick one single Masters which must be won, for example Paris.

For a mediocre player of course winning WTF is more difficult because he must fight like a maniac for the whole season only to qualify.

But for a top player what I said is in full effect: He has no problem to qualify and has in some sense already beaten the non-qualifiers at the start of the WTF. Or as I said, he just needs to outperform the Top 8 and not Top 8 + 40 Others anymore. Of course the much more difficult part remains, but it still gets slightly easier. For example not having to beat Nalbandian in 2007 (because he barely failed to qualify but was clearly the best indoor player of the past weeks) made it even decisively easier for Federer. Or another example: Having the outside Top 10 underdog who plays the tournament of his life (Gonzalez, Söderling etc.) isn’t possible in such a small field.

I just don’t value H2H that much. If more (potential) top players are present in the draw, you have it more difficult. If the draw “opens up”, then others were just better. And remember even at the WTF it’s possible, for example when Dimitrov and Goffin played the final.

I guess some surprises at Masters tournaments come due to motivational issues, so that’s why we don’t see it at Slams more often. But I explicitly mentioned that what I said only counts if anyone is fully motivated ands wants the title badly (which isn’t the case in Paris as I have to admit).
 

oldmanfan

Legend
This time it's not Nadal or Murray who took their time to decide and withdrew after the draw was out, so what you will hear from this place now is crickets.

They seem the same but they're not. Murray w/d 'after' some OOP were out, and completely messed up the top2 seeding (and he like knew full well he couldn't realistically play at a high level since he hasn't played much, if at all, after WB17 and before USO17). Nadl w/d 1-2hrs before match play against Fedr at IW19. In Fedr's case at Bercy, his match would start on Tuesday, and OOP is not out for it. Worth noting is that Bercy-staff likely knew full well that there's a good chance Fedr won't play bc he's been hinting that all week. At least Fedr gave them plenty of time, and he's only #3 seed, not top2.
 
They seem the same but they're not. Murray w/d 'after' some OOP were out, and completely messed up the top2 seeding (and he like knew full well he couldn't realistically play at a high level since he hasn't played much, if at all, after WB17 and before USO17). Nadl w/d 1-2hrs before match play against Fedr at IW19. In Fedr's case at Bercy, his match would start on Tuesday, and OOP is not out for it. Worth noting is that Bercy-staff likely knew full well that there's a good chance Fedr won't play bc he's been hinting that all week. At least Fedr gave them plenty of time, and he's only #3 seed, not top2.

All that doesn't matter to "little sunshine".

8-B
 

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
They seem the same but they're not. Murray w/d 'after' some OOP were out, and completely messed up the top2 seeding (and he like knew full well he couldn't realistically play at a high level since he hasn't played much, if at all, after WB17 and before USO17). Nadl w/d 1-2hrs before match play against Fedr at IW19. In Fedr's case at Bercy, his match would start on Tuesday, and OOP is not out for it. Worth noting is that Bercy-staff likely knew full well that there's a good chance Fedr won't play bc he's been hinting that all week. At least Fedr gave them plenty of time, and he's only #3 seed, not top2.
I've always given Murray the benefit of the doubt on that one, that he genuinely thought he might/would be able to play and compete, even if that might have not been entirely realistic.

The situation is not that different, but there are some differences:

a) Fed didn't know how far he would go in Basel, and how he would feel - last year we thought he wouldn't play, but then he did. It's not unusual that people pull out after playing finals the week before, and is a consequence of the calendar as it is. Not sure whether play had already started for the main draw by the time Fed withdrew? Otherwise, it didn't really make much difference unless he was going to withdraw before the draw came out - which is kind of unreasonable given that he didn't know he'd play the final.

b) The stakes are lower. Djoko and Nadal were going to be on opposite sides of the draw no matter what.

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk
 

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil

Talk Tennis Guru
Do you get paid by the hour to observe Fed fans? ;)
Nope. If only spotting their clown acts was something one could earn from...
So the race to YE#1 could be at least a little dramatic in WTF.
They seem the same but they're not. Murray w/d 'after' some OOP were out, and completely messed up the top2 seeding (and he like knew full well he couldn't realistically play at a high level since he hasn't played much, if at all, after WB17 and before USO17). Nadl w/d 1-2hrs before match play against Fedr at IW19. In Fedr's case at Bercy, his match would start on Tuesday, and OOP is not out for it. Worth noting is that Bercy-staff likely knew full well that there's a good chance Fedr won't play bc he's been hinting that all week. At least Fedr gave them plenty of time, and he's only #3 seed, not top2.
Assuming players or tournament staffs "likely knew" something would have happened means nothing. And I wasn’t referring to Nadal's Indian Wells withdrawal against Federer. He skipped Cincinnati this year after the draw. Did it to duck Fed and Novak I have been told...

You will mess up a seeding to one extent or another. Everyone below the player who skipped an event could have been moved higher by one place, if the player in question skipped before the draw. Unless we think only the top 2 seeds matter.

In all honesty I don't condemn any of them for their late decisions.
 

oldmanfan

Legend
I've always given Murray the benefit of the doubt on that one, that he genuinely thought he might/would be able to play and compete, even if that might have not been entirely realistic.

The situation is not that different, but there are some differences:

a) Fed didn't know how far he would go in Basel, and how he would feel - last year we thought he wouldn't play, but then he did. It's not unusual that people pull out after playing finals the week before, and is a consequence of the calendar as it is. Not sure whether play had already started for the main draw by the time Fed withdrew? Otherwise, it didn't really make much difference unless he was going to withdraw before the draw came out - which is kind of unreasonable given that he didn't know he'd play the final.

b) The stakes are lower. Djoko and Nadal were going to be on opposite sides of the draw no matter what.

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk

I get you, but Murray's w/d annoyed me a lot. I remember him posting a video hitting a tennis ball against a wall, and I thought his career was over. After hearing that he planned to play Cinci(?) and then pulled out and entered USO17, I was like wtf... And by that time in the year, there was NO doubt that the best 2 players in the world were Fedal, but Murray was being way too selfish trying to hang on to #1, so he didn't withdraw from the get go pre-draw. Sure, it's his right, but that doesn't mean it's a poor move. And what was the 'actual' tourney that he played after w/d from USO17 (I actually don't remember)?

Anyways, of the 3 w/d, Murray's was most annoying to me bc of the circumstances. Did you see his half of the USO17 draw as a result, before a single ball was even struck?
 

oldmanfan

Legend
Nope. If only spotting their clown acts was something one could earn from...

So the race to YE#1 could be at least a little dramatic in WTF.

Assuming players or tournament staffs "likely knew" something would have happened means nothing. And I wasn’t referring to Nadal's Indian Wells withdrawal against Federer. He skipped Cincinnati this year after the draw. Did it to duck Fed and Novak I have been told...

You will mess up a seeding to one extent or another. Everyone below the player who skipped an event could have been moved higher by one place, if the player in question skipped before the draw. Unless we think only the top 2 seeds matter.

In all honesty I don't condemn any of them for their late decisions.

Oh, my bad. I'm ok with Nadl's w/d from Cinci19. He passed all 3 requirements which would allow him to w/d from all masters if he wished. And I think that rule is good for the services rendered bc without that rule, just like a rubberband, if you stretch a player too much, they'll snap (i.e. quit the tour).
 

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
I get you, but Murray's w/d annoyed me a lot. I remember him posting a video hitting a tennis ball against a wall, and I thought his career was over. After hearing that he planned to play Cinci(?) and then pulled out and entered USO17, I was like wtf... And by that time in the year, there was NO doubt that the best 2 players in the world were Fedal, but Murray was being way too selfish trying to hang on to #1, so he didn't withdraw from the get go pre-draw. Sure, it's his right, but that doesn't mean it's a poor move. And what was the 'actual' tourney that he played after w/d from USO17 (I actually don't remember)?

Anyways, of the 3 w/d, Murray's was most annoying to me bc of the circumstances. Did you see his half of the USO17 draw as a result, before a single ball was even struck?
Yes, I remember all too well, and it did annoy me also, but I try to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I don't think he played again that year, so of course it makes you wonder - shouldn't he have known? But he may have reinjured something that he thought was getting better, it does happen.

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk
 

ChrisRF

Legend
Lol. These Nadal haters don't even realize that Nadal going far in Paris and WTF is pretty much the only thing which can save Federer's weeks at #1 record.
Honestly, I wouldn’t even rule out that Nadal himself could have a word about that record as well, considering how difficult it is for the field to overcome him in the past months.
 

oldmanfan

Legend
Yes, I remember all too well, and it did annoy me also, but I try to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I don't think he played again that year, so of course it makes you wonder - shouldn't he have known? But he may have reinjured something that he thought was getting better, it does happen.

Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk

C'mon now. I think you might've forgotten how bad his condition was. Murray could barely move in that video he posted 2-3 weeks after his WB17 withdraw bc of injury. That was why I thought his career was over. And that's why I was annoyed by him 1) rushing back, and I was worried for his health, and 2) messing up draws since he was still world #1 by ranking, but he was nowhere near #1 seed worthy.
It was what it was.

Of note is that he still has not learned bc he's rushing back from injury right now. I wish him luck, but he's really putting his future health at risk atm.
 

van_Loederen

Professional
I understand your thoughts as well. I guess it’s a matter of perspective.

Generally WTF is more difficult to win than just “a Masters tournament” because it only happens once per year. To make a fair comparison we have to pick one single Masters which must be won, for example Paris.

For a mediocre player of course winning WTF is more difficult because he must fight like a maniac for the whole season only to qualify.

But for a top player what I said is in full effect: He has no problem to qualify and has in some sense already beaten the non-qualifiers at the start of the WTF. Or as I said, he just needs to outperform the Top 8 and not Top 8 + 40 Others anymore. Of course the much more difficult part remains, but it still gets slightly easier. For example not having to beat Nalbandian in 2007 (because he barely failed to qualify but was clearly the best indoor player of the past weeks) made it even decisively easier for Federer. Or another example: Having the outside Top 10 underdog who plays the tournament of his life (Gonzalez, Söderling etc.) isn’t possible in such a small field.

I just don’t value H2H that much. If more (potential) top players are present in the draw, you have it more difficult. If the draw “opens up”, then others were just better. And remember even at the WTF it’s possible, for example when Dimitrov and Goffin played the final.

I guess some surprises at Masters tournaments come due to motivational issues, so that’s why we don’t see it at Slams more often. But I explicitly mentioned that what I said only counts if anyone is fully motivated ands wants the title badly (which isn’t the case in Paris as I have to admit).
not only in Bercy it's not the case, also in Canada and MC.
we have seen top players in awful shape in IW + Miami too, or players in Rome were tired from Madrid or in Cincy tired from Canada.
injury absences can happen at the YEC too, but top players are still trying to be fit for it as it's (declared) one of the absolute highlights of the season.
the same is not the case with the M1000s ...and it's also not possible to be at your absolute best at 14 events per season.

(it's true that the small YEC format doesn't allow for big upsets/surprises though. that's one reason why it's clearly below the Slams.)
 

MeatTornado

Talk Tennis Guru
I'm relieved. There was too much to lose and not enough to gain here.

He's already home, no need to travel again. Take the week off, rest up and get ready for the final push in London.
 
Doesn't make sense to play being in the same half as Rafa and I don't think I have to explain this. Plus, it gives him a chance at the WTF. He's got a shot if he brings his Basel form to London.
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
Love that you’ve upped your game from just posting Nadal underwear pics to non-stop Roger Federer posts. Welcome to the Fed fan club!
Hmm. I didn't know that "Nadal underwear pics" have been your main area of interest. I learn something new every day!
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Good decision to skip it. He is not in race for #1 anyway and #3 or #4 really doesn't matter. It seems he has recovered some of his best form in Basel. Let's hope it continues in WTF while being fresh will also help. It's going to be tough there with lots of good youngsters making it to Top 8.
 

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
Hmm. I didn't know that "Nadal underwear pics" have been your main area of interest. I learn something new every day!
TZVJLNZUC2Q3s9sGiRXqQEOXaO0
 

Yugram

Legend
Funny to see how only yesterday there were comments or, may I say, delusions heard from Federer’s camp about winning Basel-Paris-WTF-AO in a row, beating Nadal in Paris and twice at WTF, beating Djokovic in WTF and AO final, and even becoming #1 again. :-D :-D :-D

Looks like Basel hangover has come to an end. Time to come back in reality where Federer is 3-4 in H2H against Sascha Zverev.
 
Last edited:

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
Funny to see how only yesterday there were comments or, may I say, delusions heard from Federer’s camp about winning Basel-Paris-WTF-AO in a row, beating Nadal in Paris and twice at WTF, beating Djokovic in WTF and AO final, and even becoming #1 again. :-D :-D :-D

Looks like Basel hangover has come to an end.
Not sure who those crazies were, but he does have a real good chance of winning WTF, but Djoker is still the fav no matter what happens in Paris, and Rafa has a better chance then many think at WTF. Depending on how Med looks in Paris, he also might have a good shot at it.
 

Yugram

Legend
Not sure who those crazies were, but he does have a real good chance of winning WTF, but Djoker is still the fav no matter what happens in Paris, and Rafa has a better chance then many think at WTF. Depending on how Med looks in Paris, he also might have a good shot at it.
He does have a pretty good match up against 3 WTF participants in Tsitsipas, Berrettini and Medvedev and 3 terrible match ups in Djokovic, Thiem and Zverev. Nadal, ehh.. depends on how good of a serving day Federer will have. I’d say a bit of luck is required here.
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
I was just wondering how long ago all of Feds gen like Roddick, Blake, Fish, Gonzo, Ferrero etc retired...seems like 10 years ago!

Well, Roddick retired in 2012, Fish had some helath issues that ultimately led to him retiring. Blake, Gonzo and Ferrero, I can't recall when they hung it up. Fed's definitely the ageless one of that group, that's for sure.
 
Top