Roland Garros 2012: Odds

OddJack

G.O.A.T.
1-Nadal: 5/4 (+125), Coral
2-Djokovic: 8/5 (+160), Bwin
3-Federer: 12/1 (+1200), Bodog
4-Murray: 16/1 (+1600), Bodog
5-Del Potro: 20/1 (+2000), Ladbrokes
6-David Ferrer: 33/1 (+3300), Bodog
7-Tomas Berdych: 80/1 (+8000), Bodog
8-Almagro: 125/1 (+12500), Paddy Power

One of few well written articles at BR.

1-Rafael Nadal (60% chance of winning: implies odds of 2/3 or -150)
2-Novak Djokovic (11.11% chance of winning: implies odds of 8/1 or +800)
3-Andy Murray (7.69% chance of winning: implies odds of 12/1 or +1200)
4-Roger Federer (6.67% chance of winning: implies odds of 14/1 or +1400)
5-Nicolas Almagro (3.85% chance of winning: implies odds of 25/1 or +2500)
6-Tomas Berdych (2.7% chance of winning: implies odds of 35/1 or +3500)
7-David Ferrer (1.8% chance of winning: implies odds of 55/1 or +5500)
8-Juan Martin Del Potro (1.64% chance of winning: implies odds of 60/1 or +6000)
Remaining field combined: about 4-5% chance of winning with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, and Robin Soderling eating up a huge chunk of that 4-5%.

I agree that Alma has better chance than Delpo

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...adal-tomas-berdych-and-nicolas-almagro-tipped
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Would be surprised if Magro reaches the semis, would have to be a lot of upsets for that.

otoh, murray looking nicely chilled in the article.
142282781_crop_340x234.jpg
 

jelle v

Hall of Fame
In regard to Federer, 12 to 1 is flirty but not quite worth it. The Swiss Maestro, even in his younger days, only once won the French Open outright. He's definitely on form to start 2012, but I think he is likely to continue to struggle in the late rounds of Grand Slams against younger competition.

Not that I want to come across like a blind Federer fan, but this is just nonsense in my opinion. Federer is only likely to lose against Nadal or Djokovic at roland Garros. This article makes it sound as if Federer's chances of reaching the semis are slim at best
 
N

NadalAgassi

Guest
Not that I want to come across like a blind Federer fan, but this is just nonsense in my opinion. Federer is only likely to lose against Nadal or Djokovic at roland Garros. This article makes it sound as if Federer's chances of reaching the semis are slim at best

No it doesnt but making the semis and winning are two hugely different things. Making the semis is quite doable for Federer. Winning is highly unlikely and 12/1 isnt even a worthwhile bet at this point, unless atleast one of Nadal or Djokovic (more likely Nadal when it comes to Federer) begin struggling in a major way to start the clay season and his odds havent changed much yet.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
How can Murray possibly be ahead of Rogi in that second list? That's just silly.

I agree that is a little ambitious but come to think of it if you had to pick someone to potentially beat Nadal and Djokovic back to back in a best of 5, even if it is clay, who would it be ? 31 year old Federer or hungry for that first slam Murray ? Past results cannot be a benchmark for all future odds, things have got to change sometime. Like they did with Novak's run in 2011.
 

dudeski

Hall of Fame
Yet Clarky21 will soon post that Nadal has no chance of winning and the title is Novak's except she will call the world #1 some stupid made up name.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Not that I want to come across like a blind Federer fan, but this is just nonsense in my opinion. Federer is only likely to lose against Nadal or Djokovic at roland Garros. This article makes it sound as if Federer's chances of reaching the semis are slim at best

The problem is that as good a run Federer may be on, with him approaching 31, it becomes harder and harder to assume that he is a lock for the final. He has made exactly one major final of the last 8. As for 'Federer is only likely to lose against Nadal or Nole at RG' , that is what they said about Federer's invincibility at Wimbledon until he lost in the quarters to Berdych and Tsonga. Nothing is a certainty with Federer anymore, in a best of 5.
 

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
Yet Clarky21 will soon post that Nadal has no chance of winning and the title is Novak's except she will call the world #1 some stupid made up name.

Was Clarky posting when Nadal won his last title ? (RG 2011 ?) It would be interesting to see what she had to say in the lead up to that one :D
 

Clarky21

Banned
Was Clarky posting when Nadal won his last title ? (RG 2011 ?) It would be interesting to see what she had to say in the lead up to that one :D


I don't think I was,to answer your question. And yet again Dudeski cannot resist bringing me up in his posts. I think he needs to find a different person to focus on.
 

Talker

Hall of Fame
These are early odds, we have to see how Djokovic/Nadal do in the clay court season.

Nadal has a lot to defend so Fed could get to #2 and if he does Nadal could be drawn in Djokovic's half at RG.

This could be a way for Fed to grab another RG title if Djokovic would take out Nadal in the RG semis.

I would put Fed ahead of Murray at any slam though.

Could be that people think Lendl will work some magic with Murray on clay.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Was Clarky posting when Nadal won his last title ? (RG 2011 ?) It would be interesting to see what she had to say in the lead up to that one :D
Even if Nadal wins RG 2012 beating a super-fit Nole, i am sure she will dismiss Nadal's win as a freak upset win. In fact his reaching the final will be a huge streak of lucky upsets and chokes by his opponents.

Clarky's level of consistency is GOAT level, I think she'll totally dominate this forum for years to come.:)
 

Magnus

Legend
Wow. Murray, a player who never won a slam, never reached a RG final, having better odds to win than a player who have won RG and made it to multiple finals, not to mention is a recent IW winner compared to Murray who just lost Miami. I'm no Murray hater but this is weird.
 

dudeski

Hall of Fame
I don't think I was,to answer your question. And yet again Dudeski cannot resist bringing me up in his posts. I think he needs to find a different person to focus on.

You are just upset because saved yet another thread from your garbage prediction. You are welcome everyone.
 

Hood_Man

G.O.A.T.
I don't think I was,to answer your question. And yet again Dudeski cannot resist bringing me up in his posts. I think he needs to find a different person to focus on.

I'm sure I remember you posting in the FO Final thread last year.

You're a veteran now :)
 
These are early odds, we have to see how Djokovic/Nadal do in the clay court season.

Nadal has a lot to defend so Fed could get to #2 and if he does Nadal could be drawn in Djokovic's half at RG.

This could be a way for Fed to grab another RG title if Djokovic would take out Nadal in the RG semis.

I would put Fed ahead of Murray at any slam though.

Could be that people think Lendl will work some magic with Murray on clay.

Nadal has less points to defend this clay season than he's ever had to defend in a clay season. Nadal is a lot more likely to gain points this clay season than lose points.
 

Evan77

Banned
Nadal has less points to defend this clay season than he's ever had to defend in a clay season. Nadal is a lot more likely to gain points this clay season than lose points.
not sure about that. Nadal needs to defend:
MC - win
Barcelona -win
Mardid - final
Rome - final
RG - win

so he can only gain few points in Rome and Madrid assuming he wins everything else and that ain't happening. There is one particular guy who will probably trash him along the way.
 

kiki

Banned
get ready, vamostards.Rumours that Ken Rosewall is back at practice for a final Paris encore.
 

Talker

Hall of Fame
Nadal has less points to defend this clay season than he's ever had to defend in a clay season. Nadal is a lot more likely to gain points this clay season than lose points.

Going by last year Djokovic plays better against Nadal on clay than anywhere.
This year Djokovic is playing MC and will have other chances later in the CC season.
Fed's also a danger to Nadal at Madrid.

Nadal's going into MC with limited practice because of his knee treatment so that has to be watched.

Whatever happens, this will be one of the most anticipated clay season's in years.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Nadal has less points to defend this clay season than he's ever had to defend in a clay season. Nadal is a lot more likely to gain points this clay season than lose points.
But then he'll have more points to defend next year. Maybe it's not such a good idea after all.
 
not sure about that. Nadal needs to defend:
MC - win
Barcelona -win
Mardid - final
Rome - final
RG - win

so he can only gain few points in Rome and Madrid assuming he wins everything else and that ain't happening. There is one particular guy who will probably trash him along the way.

So that means Nadal can get 1600 points closer to Dj by beating Dj at Madrid and Rome. Very nice.
 
But then he'll have more points to defend next year. Maybe it's not such a good idea after all.

Nadal might as well get the number one ranking this year and then take his chances on Fed/Dj declining next year. Also, because this is an Olympic/very busy year is unlikely Nadal will gain much at the World Tour Finals. Next year he can though.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Nadal might as well get the number one ranking this year and then take his chances on Fed/Dj declining next year. Also, because this is an Olympic/very busy year is unlikely Nadal will gain much at the World Tour Finals. Next year he can though.
That would be awesome. As an added bonus, nadalwon2012 can come back out of hiding. And Clarky can go into exile. :D
 

Tenez101

Banned
I would say that the probability of certain players winning is roughly:

Nadal 50%
Djokovic 30%
Federer 5%
Lendl 5%
Everybody else 10%

I think we'll have a better idea after a few clay tournaments.
 

Tony48

Legend
Nadal has less points to defend this clay season than he's ever had to defend in a clay season. Nadal is a lot more likely to gain points this clay season than lose points.

Let's put this in the proper perspective: he has less points because he lost two finals and won the other three.....as opposed to going undefeated

Here's how many points the top 4 are defending (ordered from most points to least):

Nadal: 4,700 (3 titles)
Djokovic: 2,970 (3 titles)
Federer: 1,830
Murray: 1,530

Nadal at most can only gain 800 pts (which means he sweeps the clay season), while everyone else can gain much, much more.
 
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Evan77

Banned
too many delusional Rafa fans here. He is not going anywhere near #1 even if he wins every clay tournament this year and that's not happening either. I'm getting more and more annoyed by Rafa and Roger ****s on this board. So much wishful thinking, no sense for reality at all. It's so sad, but suit yourself and believe in your fantasies.
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
Lol at the writer and Almagro's chances to win.

Doesn't look like a bad business to bet on Fed.

That would be like a throw away bet.

He hasn't won a slam in over 2 years, and he's not going to win his first slam after a considerable drought at RG. He's been hammered by Rafa in how many RG Finals? Even last year he played the best final he's ever played, and still lost to Rafa in 4 sets...

I'd honestly just bet on Djokovic. He's the only player that I fully trust to beat Nadal on clay.
 
Let's put this in the proper perspective: he has less points because he lost two finals and won the other three.....as opposed to going undefeated

Here's how many points the top 4 are defending (ordered from most points to least):

Nadal: 4,700 (3 titles)
Djokovic: 2,970 (3 titles)
Federer: 1,830
Murray: 1,530

Nadal at most can only gain 800 pts (which means he sweeps the clay season), while everyone else can gain much, much more.

Yeah Nadal can improve by 800 points but that means he can get 1600 points closer to Djokovic because Djokovic would lose 800 points by losing in the final of Rome and Madrid.
 

CocaCola

Professional
Yeah Nadal can improve by 800 points but that means he can get 1600 points closer to Djokovic because Djokovic would lose 800 points by losing in the final of Rome and Madrid.

How about Djokovic winning MC by beating Nadal in finals adding 1400 points to his lead? :lol:

Or even worse, losing to Nadal in finals and still adding 600 points.
 
C

celoft

Guest
get ready, vamostards.Rumours that Ken Rosewall is back at practice for a final Paris encore.

Ken Rosewall: 8 French Pro Championships.

Max Decugis: 8 French Championships.

Wake me up when Nadal wins 8 French Opens. :lol:
 

Crisstti

Legend
Let's put this in the proper perspective: he has less points because he lost two finals and won the other three.....as opposed to going undefeated

Here's how many points the top 4 are defending (ordered from most points to least):

Nadal: 4,700 (3 titles)
Djokovic: 2,970 (3 titles)
Federer: 1,830
Murray: 1,530

Nadal at most can only gain 800 pts (which means he sweeps the clay season), while everyone else can gain much, much more.

On the clay season?, what three titles...?. Rome, Madrid and what else?. :confused:

That would be like a throw away bet.

He hasn't won a slam in over 2 years, and he's not going to win his first slam after a considerable drought at RG. He's been hammered by Rafa in how many RG Finals? Even last year he played the best final he's ever played, and still lost to Rafa in 4 sets...

I'd honestly just bet on Djokovic. He's the only player that I fully trust to beat Nadal on clay.

Yeah, but still he reached the final just last year... I wouldn't bet on him for more than one reason, but the odds are interesting, that's all I'm saying :)

JMDP at 60/1 is a really interesting play and worth the risk.

Yep, him too.
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
On the clay season?, what three titles...?. Rome, Madrid and what else?. :confused:



Yeah, but still he reached the final just last year... I wouldn't bet on him for more than one reason, but the odds are interesting, that's all I'm saying :)



Yep, him too.

Monte Carlo and Barcelona?
 

batz

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic didn't win MC and Barcelona.

I didn't think I was arguing otherwise. I thought I was simply listing where points might be picked up this clay season - I've clearly got the wrong end of the stick; apologies.
 
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