Roland Garros 2024 Contenders

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
1. Novak Djokovic - 3 time Roland Garros champion, won 2 of the last 3 titles and lost third to eventual winner. Has taken apart Nadal Tsitsipas Ruud Zverev and Alcaraz who are all on the LIST.

c831c3a7-4f97-4623-8214-17e19217591a_20230611_RG_CD_6910_web.jpg




2. Carlos Alcaraz - 20 years old with 7 clay titles. Already won 2 Madrid titles and 2 Barcelona titles. Could have pushed Djokovic last year but body gave up on him. He has beaten Tsitsipas from this list but being the youngest player of the group, he definitely has time on his side.

alcaraz-madrid-2023-trophy.jpg




3. Rafael Nadal - He is coming back, perhaps for the final time. He has to prove he can play at his best again but clay gives him superpowers. In 2022, when he was looking bad, he beat 3 players from this list to win the title. Overall he has beaten Djokovic a gazillion times, Zverev and Ruud here.

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4. Alexander Zverev - He has made semifinals in last 3 editions. In 2021, he was beaten by Tsitsipas who is on this list, in 2022 he beat Alcaraz who is on the list but got injured vs Nadal, in 2023 he had very poor performance vs Ruud who is on this list. But 3 straight semis, he is a formidable force. He is also the guy who beat Alcaraz in 2022 and now knows he can beat Alcaraz in a grinding match. He has also won Madrid/Rome before.

zverev-madrid-2021-sunday-trophy.jpg



5. Stefanos Tsitsipas - This guy is figuratively taking crap from the entire tennis community right now. His best days might not be over though, he is only 25. He has shown he can beat Zverev who is on this list, he was 2 sets up vs Djokovic but lost in the end. The match was high quality. Tsitsipas also has 2 Monte Carlo titles and has been in QF or better in 3 of the last 4 years.

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6. Casper Ruud - Now hear me out. This guy is probably the worst on this list. But he has proven to be consistent on the surface like David Ferrer. Two slam finals even through a puffy draw are not anything to scoff at. He has more finals here than anyone not named Djokovic or Nadal. He will need a lot of help from the draw but he puts himself in there just by showing consistency.

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I am removing Sinner and Rune from this list. Even though Rune in 2022 beat Tsitsipas and Sinner has at least shown his base level is in top 4 right now, I think both are not ready to win Roland Garros and would be shocked if that happened.
 
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D

Deleted member 758560

Guest
ruud' pic is the best, second place is tiny, third is zebrev, ndal next, then gioco and last is greek philosopher
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Rune and Sinner have much more of a chance than Stefanos or Ruud
Stefanos is former Roland Garros finalist. Ruud is also winning his matches vs Rune because Rune is not physically ready. I think Rune is better player too. But will have to see his physicality improve before putting him on the list.
Why is Sinner having more chance than Stefanos?
 
1. Novak Djokovic - 3 time Roland Garros champion, won 2 of the last 3 titles and lost third to eventual winner. Has taken apart Nadal Tsitsipas Ruud Zverev and Alcaraz who are all on the LIST.

c831c3a7-4f97-4623-8214-17e19217591a_20230611_RG_CD_6910_web.jpg




2. Carlos Alcaraz - 20 years old with 7 clay titles. Already won 2 Madrid titles and 2 Barcelona titles. Could have pushed Djokovic last year but body gave up on him. He has beaten Tsitsipas from this list but being the youngest player of the group, he definitely has time on his side.

alcaraz-madrid-2023-trophy.jpg




3. Rafael Nadal - He is coming back, perhaps for the final time. He has to prove he can play at his best again but clay gives him superpowers. In 2022, when he was looking bad, he beat 3 players from this list to win the title. Overall he has beaten Djokovic a gazillion times, Zverev and Ruud here.

qlth3ynpyvpkhzchc4vh




4. Alexander Zverev - He has made semifinals in last 3 editions. In 2021, he was beaten by Tsitsipas who is on this list, in 2022 he beat Alcaraz who is on the list but got injured vs Nadal, in 2023 he had very poor performance vs Ruud who is on this list. But 3 straight semis, he is a formidable force. He is also the guy who beat Alcaraz in 2022 and now knows he can beat Alcaraz in a grinding match. He has also won Madrid/Rome before.

zverev-madrid-2021-sunday-trophy.jpg



5. Stefanos Tsitsipas - This guy is figuratively taking crap from the entire tennis community right now. His best days might not be over though, he is only 25. He has shown he can beat Zverev who is on this list, he was 2 sets up vs Djokovic but lost in the end. The match was high quality. Tsitsipas also has 2 Monte Carlo titles and has been in QF or better in 3 of the last 4 years.

skysports-stefanos-tsitsipas_5742415.jpg



6. Casper Ruud - Now hear me out. This guy is probably the worst on this list. But he has proven to be consistent on the surface like David Ferrer. Two slam finals even through a puffy draw are not anything to scoff at. He has more finals here than anyone not named Djokovic or Nadal. He will need a lot of help from the draw but he puts himself in there just by showing consistency.

T6V3XZUMTFJWXE7YDADXSZI25Q.jpg


I am removing Sinner and Rune from this list. Even though Rune in 2022 beat Tsitsipas and Sinner has at least shown his base level is in top 4 right now, I think both are not ready to win Roland Garros and would be shocked if that happened.
If nadal is even close to average fitness he walks it. Nobody is even close to him on chatrier and wont be for another 5 years if he keeps playing. This new generation are so one dimensional that they are a gift for nadal on clay.
If not nadal it will be alcaraz. Clay is his best surface once he cuts down the ufes.
 

dking68

Legend
He has 1 title on clay in umag. I don't trust him on clay honestly.

But let's see.
I don’t trust him either but there’s a reason why he underperformed - he has pollen allergy. That’s why his best result at the FO was in 2020 when he just turned 19, because it was played in October when the pollen/hay fever season isn’t around. That’s why he lost early at FO
 

dking68

Legend
I don’t trust him either but there’s a reason why he underperformed - he has pollen allergy. That’s why his best result at the FO was in 2020 when he just turned 19, because it was played in October when the pollen/hay fever season isn’t around. That’s why he lost early at FO
@nachiket nolefam thats why he beat Carlos in clay in Umag - because it was played in July/august. Hay fever season is between April-June, that’s why Sinner underperforms in clay. But when he’s playing his best on clay - his level is top 4
 
D

Dwell

Guest
if he isn’t to make a semifinal next year - it’s Roland. Otherwise I’m confident he makes at least SF in the other 3
He needs clear strategic thinking and a versatile forehand.
I'm confident he can develop those but both seem to plummet when his physical condition deteriorates.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Fully agree with the top three if Nadal gets his body into shape! Would love to see another last charge of the King of clay.

Just some boring stats, the top 15 according to raw surface ELO and I marked the three players above 2000 in the synthetic clay Elo. This combined ration has greater predictive power than pure overall or surface ELO. Nole and Charlie are a step above the competition, Janni not far behind.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2023-11-27
Rank​
Player​
Age​
Elo​
HardRaw​
ClayRaw​
GrassRaw​
hElo​
cElo​
gElo​
Peak Age​
Peak Elo​
3​
20.5​
2148.8​
1983.0​
2039.0​
1909.3​
2065.9​
2093.9
2029.0​
20.2​
2239.7​
9​
25.2​
1973.9​
1879.1​
2005.1​
1650.8​
1926.5​
1989.5​
1812.4​
22.8​
2133.4​
1​
36.4​
2226.7​
2139.5​
1960.1​
1898.1​
2183.1​
2093.4
2062.4​
28.8​
2470.3​
16​
24.8​
1895.1​
1724.1​
1940.5​
1412.8​
1809.6​
1917.8​
1653.9​
23.4​
2064.0​
6​
26.0​
2020.5​
1910.5​
1918.9​
1757.6​
1965.5​
1969.7​
1889.0​
23.4​
2106.2​
5​
26.5​
2024.0​
1894.4​
1917.9​
1619.4​
1959.2​
1971.0​
1821.7​
24.7​
2161.7​
2​
22.2​
2196.7​
2098.9​
1913.5​
1733.0​
2147.8​
2055.1
1964.9​
22.2​
2196.7​
12​
20.5​
1936.0​
1778.5​
1897.3​
1631.9​
1857.2​
1916.6​
1784.0​
20.0​
2070.1​
38​
28.2​
1814.6​
1722.8​
1851.6​
1658.2​
1768.7​
1833.1​
1736.4​
26.9​
2018.4​
4​
27.7​
2104.4​
2026.2​
1850.0​
1751.2​
2065.3​
1977.2​
1927.8​
25.9​
2191.9​
50​
21.7​
1791.6​
1639.7​
1846.0​
1479.4​
1715.6​
1818.8​
1635.5​
20.6​
1925.4​
25​
25.2​
1864.7​
1693.4​
1824.7​
1593.2​
1779.0​
1844.7​
1728.9​
24.8​
1938.5​
7​
32.4​
2010.9​
1887.2​
1802.7​
1611.6​
1949.1​
1906.8​
1811.3​
23.2​
2090.6​
14​
27.3​
1899.7​
1693.2​
1801.9​
1822.2​
1796.4​
1850.8​
1860.9​
26.2​
2072.6​
20​
28.0​
1875.9​
1692.4​
1800.3​
1555.1​
1784.1​
1838.1​
1715.5​
28.0​
1893.0​

Sinner has his allergy but he clearly underperformed in the last two European clay swings. Ironically at 20 he looked stat-wise very much like a clay court specialist. Apart from Altmaier he had no really bad loss on clay in the last three seasons. Rinderknech, Popyrin and FAA were serving very well. 2021-2022 btw he always seemed to run into Nadal, Djokovic, Zverev and Tsitsipas...
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Great write-up. Only difference I would make is that I would have kept Sinner in and removed Tsitsipas.

Tsitsipas is a great player and I think he can cause some draw destruction, but I no longer believe mentally that he is willing to go to the extremes a player must go to in order to win a major. Particularly a clay major. He is right at the career trajectory where other great players in the past took their foot off the pedal. He is content to be a great player, and a consistent player. But he has a lot of other interests in life and tennis is no longer everything for him.

Sinner can win it, though imo. He is still entirely unproven, I agree, but there has to be a first time for everything and Sinner has shown enough to suggest he is ready to take the next step. I honestly think he is going to win AO so he might go into RG with a major already under his belt.

Rune will win one of the clay masters next year for sure, and could play spoiler big time at RG. I think he could beat almost anyone in the draw in a single match, but I don’t think he can win the whole tournament so agree with him not being included.
 

Wander

Hall of Fame
I am removing Sinner and Rune from this list. Even though Rune in 2022 beat Tsitsipas and Sinner has at least shown his base level is in top 4 right now, I think both are not ready to win Roland Garros and would be shocked if that happened.
And you wouldn't be shocked if Ruud won RG next year? Really? The guy is 0-5 against Djokovic, 0-2 against Nadal and 0-2 against baby Sinner. He just had a year where it looked like his level is already fading after never looking like a future Slam winner in the first place. And you reckon he's a contender to win RG next year? Come on man. He would have trouble winning that title even if it was just him against Rune, Tsitsipas, Zverev and other 0 Slam guys.
 
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nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
And you wouldn't be shocked if Ruud won RG next year? Really? The guy is 0-5 against Djokovic, 0-2 against Nadal and 0-2 against baby Sinner. He just had a year where it looked like his level is already fading after never looking like a future Slam winner in the first place. And you reckon he's a contender to win RG next year? Come on man. He would have trouble winning that title even if it was just him against Rune, Tsitsipas, Zverev and other 0 Slam guys.
I think he is the worst on the list. What he has done after 2 successive RG can't be forgotten. He has beaten top players and he looked physically ready for the bo5. I think if the draw fell his way he can get someone like Rublev or rune in QF and Zverev or Tsitsipas in semis. He took a downturn this year but he is fit, he will be back.
 

dking68

Legend
I think he is the worst on the list. What he has done after 2 successive RG can't be forgotten. He has beaten top players and he looked physically ready for the bo5. I think if the draw fell his way he can get someone like Rublev or rune in QF and Zverev or Tsitsipas in semis. He took a downturn this year but he is fit, he will be back.
Sinner is better on clay than Ruud tbh. Yes he may have made a Roland final but if you take into consideration that first set against Rublev in Roland 2022 and Alcaraz Umag in 2022, Sinners level is top 4 on clay
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Sinner is better on clay than Ruud tbh. Yes he may have made a Roland final but if you take into consideration that first set against Rublev in Roland 2022 and Alcaraz Umag in 2022, Sinners level is top 4 on clay
If he has results you can say.

Right now you are again spamming. He has zero results. He has to win before being made into top 4 on clay.
 

Wander

Hall of Fame
I think he is the worst on the list. What he has done after 2 successive RG can't be forgotten. He has beaten top players and he looked physically ready for the bo5. I think if the draw fell his way he can get someone like Rublev or rune in QF and Zverev or Tsitsipas in semis. He took a downturn this year but he is fit, he will be back.
I guess Ruud is a contender if Nadal is unfit and Djokovic receives a shocker loss or gets injured etc. during the tournament. But I don't see him being any more of a contender than Rune and Sinner. True, Ruud made two consecutive RG finals and that's a feat impressive enough to include him in a current contenders list, but I do feel like Sinner deserves the nod just as much after his recent feats. He's had pretty decent clay results too including beating Alcaraz to win his sole clay ATP title in 2022.

Rune has been very up and down, but I think he could be ready for a deep run in 6 months. He lost to Ruud at RG the last two years, but I don't think he looked completely outmatched either time. More that he just ran out of conditioning against Ruud's unrelenting consistency. But it's a bit early to say that this would necessarily be the case for the third year in a row.

Of course, in the end who you decide to include in your contenders list and whom to cut out is a judgement call for each individual. The problem here is that after the first two names (Djokovic and Alcaraz) the drop-off is pretty stark, and you have probably half a dozen players who are close to equal as the next favourites.
 

Subway Tennis

G.O.A.T.
I think he is the worst on the list. What he has done after 2 successive RG can't be forgotten. He has beaten top players and he looked physically ready for the bo5. I think if the draw fell his way he can get someone like Rublev or rune in QF and Zverev or Tsitsipas in semis. He took a downturn this year but he is fit, he will be back.
It’s somewhat unspoken on here because a lot of people don’t like Ruud, but he actually enjoys the matchup with Zverev in my opinion.

Zverev could take out anyone in the RG draw, but I can also picture Ruud straight-setting Zverev in a SF if they met.
 

Wesling

Semi-Pro
Nadal walks it etc - lol djokovic has pushed nadal to the brink before 10 years ago and beaten him several times. they are very even on clay, even if nadal usually is a little bit better. if nadal is even 10-15% off his normal peak, djokovic can easily take him out.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
I mean I still think Ruud > Rune by a decent margin but Holger def deserves to be up there
He will be if he wins new tournaments next year. I am adding the list as of today. Last year he wilted physically vs Ruud. I am just saying he will probably need some time to be ready physically. Ruud is what 24/25?
 
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