Roland Garros 2024 Contenders

[nolefam_2024]

Current odds.

Alcaraz +200
Djokovic +300
Sinner +500
Tsitsipas +750
Zverev +1000
Ruud +1200
Nadal+1200

No Rublev and Rune in top 7.

 

[DSH]

Current odds.

Alcaraz +200
Djokovic +300
Sinner +500
Tsitsipas +750
Zverev +1000
Ruud +1200
Nadal+1200

No Rublev and Rune in top 7.

BWEH!

 

[nolefam_2024]

BWEH!

Rublev has never made a slam final or even a semifinal. Same like Rune.

 

[Deleted member 810491]

Watch everybody collapse to Nadal, he'll barely drop a set, such is the advantage he enjoys on Court Philippe.
Those big servers won't get cheap points, and will be exposed as per usual...

Can Nadal fulfill Manolo Santana's prophecy that he would win 15 Roland Garros titles?

Yes and he'll be back for more in 2025.

Going to be making a new account after this series ends tonight?

Going by this formula of hold + brk % above 115

Only three real contenders are Djokovic Sinner and Alcaraz.

Alexander Zverev is closest fourth but I won't trust him in big match scenarios. But it will depend on the draw now that he safely avoids facing them till semis.

Zverev is thrashed by both Djokovic and Sinner in RG before. But that was long time ago. He has yet to lose to Carlos in grand slams I think.

On other side, tsitsipas has run Djokovic close and beaten sinner in grand slam but he never won vs Alcaraz.

It will depend on the draw as well.

The best thing Sinner has ever done on clay is win 2022 Umag, so he's probably the weakest #2 seed in the history of Roland Garros.
And Djokovic is not winning anything this year.
Have a look at Nadal's 2022 Rome (lost to Diego in straights sets), and what he did at Roland Garros (beat Diego in straight sets and mauled Djokovic 60 62 75).
And the same will happen to Hurkacz... no chance of beating Nadal if they meet at Roland Garros.

 

[DSH]

Watch everybody collapse to Nadal, he'll barely drop a set, such is the advantage he enjoys on Court Philippe.
Those big servers won't get cheap points, and will be exposed as per usual...

Can Nadal fulfill Manolo Santana's prophecy that he would win 15 Roland Garros titles?

 

[Kralingen]

Watch everybody collapse to Nadal, he'll barely drop a set, such is the advantage he enjoys on Court Philippe.
Those big servers won't get cheap points, and will be exposed as per usual...

Going to be making a new account after this series ends tonight?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Last 52 on clay vs all time

Zverev
Last 52 hold 86.6 brk 27.8 - total 114.4
Career hold 79.6 brk 29.6 - total 109.2

Tsitsipas
Last 52 hold 84.2 brk 29.6 - total 113.8
Career hold 84.3 brk 28.0 - total 112.3

I consider > 115 hold + brk as standard slam contenders. Both are just below that standard right now.



Tsitsipas is about even in last 52 weeks and all career on clay. While zverev hold % has gone up 7%.


While tsitsipas to me always was better RG contender than Zverev , based on form in last 52 weeks they are about even though.



Ruud is quiet close to both with 82.4 + 31.3 = 113.7

 

[Jonesy]

Will the Red Baron play?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Rublev is not even close under 110. It would not shock me if he gets out in r2/3 but he can reach quarters if he is playing well.


There is no point speculating these 4.

Djokovic - played 8 matches on clay this year
Alcaraz - played 4 matches in Europe and under 10 this year on clay
Sinner - played under 10 matches on clay, last time he was playing well was long back in mc.
Nadal - He has barely played well enough to be contender based on form.


As of today I would rank this

1. Djokovic : no injury issues and defending champion
2. Alcaraz : injury issues but best raw talent for clay post Rafole
3. Sinner : huge injury scare but best player this season ( till mc)
4. Zverev : slightly going past Tsitsipas at this time. But mental is suspect
5. Tsitsipas : looking probably best he ever did before rg.
6. Ruud : close to zverev tsitsipas and no injury issues but doesn't have the top game to win in tough draw
7. Nadal : unless he is holding back till now, it looks impossible. But Nadal has won 14 rg so if he holds physically then he is threat to absolutely everyone.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Will the Red Baron play?

Can't say yes but can't say no either. Last I heard he was training in Mc.

 

[Jonesy]

Can't say yes but can't say no either. Last I heard he was training in Mc.

That gives hope. I want to see at least 2 big matches this tournament of the main contenders facing each other.

 

[nolefam_2024]

That gives hope. I want to see at least 2 big matches this tournament of the main contenders facing each other.

Going by this formula of hold + brk % above 115

Only three real contenders are Djokovic Sinner and Alcaraz.

Alexander Zverev is closest fourth but I won't trust him in big match scenarios. But it will depend on the draw now that he safely avoids facing them till semis.

Zverev is thrashed by both Djokovic and Sinner in RG before. But that was long time ago. He has yet to lose to Carlos in grand slams I think.

On other side, tsitsipas has run Djokovic close and beaten sinner in grand slam but he never won vs Alcaraz.

It will depend on the draw as well.

 

[DSH]

Going by this formula of hold + brk % above 115

Only three real contenders are Djokovic Sinner and Alcaraz.

Alexander Zverev is closest fourth but I won't trust him in big match scenarios. But it will depend on the draw now that he safely avoids facing them till semis.

Zverev is thrashed by both Djokovic and Sinner in RG before. But that was long time ago. He has yet to lose to Carlos in grand slams I think.

On other side, tsitsipas has run Djokovic close and beaten sinner in grand slam but he never won vs Alcaraz.

It will depend on the draw as well.

Zverev has lost against Alcaraz at the 2023 US Open.
Of course, he has a positive record against him and Sinner in GS tournaments.
Against both of them their h2h is 2-1 in this type of best of five sets events in his favor.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Zverev has lost against Alcaraz at the 2023 US Open.
Of course, he has a positive record against him and Sinner in GS tournaments.
Against both of them their h2h is 2-1 in this type of best of five sets events in his favor.

Nice. Did not know that. That gives Zverev a lot of confidence vs 2 of the 3 best contenders at rg.

I am not sure if he will be playing with zero pressure in slam semis or finals based on his past performances.

But recently he is turning the page.

 

[Hitman]

Nice. Did not know that. That gives Zverev a lot of confidence vs 2 of the 3 best contenders at rg.

I am not sure if he will be playing with zero pressure in slam semis or finals based on his past performances.

But recently he is turning the page.

Zverev beat Sinner at USO 2023, and then beat Alcaraz at AO 2024.

His issue is, he followed both those wins with losses.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Zverev beat Sinner at USO 2023, and then beat Alcaraz at AO 2024.

His issue is, he followed both those wins with losses.

I am positive on Zverev reaching later rounds of slams but not sure if he will ever get there without playing ridiculous five setters.

But yes as you and @DSH said we are seeing him turning the leaf now.

 

[Hitman]

I am positive on Zverev reaching later rounds of slams but not sure if he will ever get there without playing ridiculous five setters.

But yes as you and @DSH said we are seeing him turning the leaf now.

The Z man believes. I am glad he won Rome.

 

[big ted]

ill be surprised if rafa gets past the 3rd round. djoko wont win it. these days the younger players are more motivated than he is. before that wasnt the case.
i hope ruud wins

 

[nolefam_2024]

ill be surprised if rafa gets past the 3rd round. djoko wont win it. these days the younger players are more motivated than he is. before that wasnt the case.
i hope ruud wins

Would you say the same if Novak wins Geneva.

Novak is not top contender but he is not losing to someone like Ruud. Otherwise it's time to pack things up.

 

[GloW]

Would you say the same if Novak wins Geneva.

Novak is not top contender but he is not losing to someone like Ruud. Otherwise it's time to pack things up.

fool Novak once shame on Ruud.
Fool Novak twice shame on Novak.

 

[big ted]

Would you say the same if Novak wins Geneva.

Novak is not top contender but he is not losing to someone like Ruud. Otherwise it's time to pack things up.

its a start, but if djokovic can’t even win this 250 then forget it

 

[xFedal]

its a start, but if djokovic can’t even win this 250 then forget it

I don;t see Djokovic winning anything big this year, look at him ZERO FINALS this year, can't even win atp 250 tournament, i think he can't even win challenger tournament, a truly pathetic year from anyone that's ever been ranked no.1 in the world.