Roland Garrows the downfall of Novak?

Nadal's turf or the new king?

  • Nadal for winner

    Votes: 30 31.3%

  • Novak for winner

    Votes: 35 36.5%

  • Roger with a comeback this year or someone else

    Votes: 31 32.3%
  • Total voters
    96
Masayoshi said:
Why would Djokovic think that the Fed 16 is impossible to break? From our outside perspective, it may look that way, but I feel that Djokovic has an insane amount of belief in himself, judging by the way he approaches his matches. He may be just crazy enough to think he'll get 11 more majors...

(and there'd be a small but non-zero chance he'd be right!)
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Djokovic has stated in an interview that he would be happy to retire with Borg's number of slams--i.e. 11. I don't think Djokovic thinks that 16 slams is even achievable for him. He is already 24 and will be 25 in May.
 
Djokovic will likely beat Nadal at Roiand Garros, and quite possibly in 4 sets i.e in an easier fashion than he did in the AO final.

Clay is likely the worst surface for Nadal to play Djokovic. The slowness of the surface exacerbates Nadal's fundamental problem against Djokovic. That is, Nadal does NOT have a finishing strategy. His shots do not penetrate the court, and Djokovic is fast enough to chase them down. Hence Nadal cannot "stay" on the offensive and has to play more defense against Djoko than he does against any other player.

The reason Nadal has been competitive against Djokovic on hardcourts is because the surface speed helps with his serve and the forehand. It allows Nadal the luxury to shorten points against Djokovic because as soon as the rally lengthens Djokovic takes control and pushes Nadal back.

When someone is as fast (or faster) than you, has more stamina and has bigger shots, clay is actually the WORST surface to play against them. Clay actually exposes your game. It is no coincidence that the 2 clay Nadal-Djoko matches in 2011 were straight set affairs. The F.O final also has the potential to be similarly one sided.

IMO, Nadal will have better chances at Wimbledon, if he makes the final there to play Djokovic..
 
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TennisFan3 said:
Djokovic will likely beat Nadal at Roiand Garros, and quite possibly in 4 sets i.e in an easier fashion than he did in the AO final.

Clay is likely the worst surface for Nadal to play Djokovic. The slowness of the surface exacerbates Nadal's fundamental problem against Djokovic. That is, Nadal does NOT have a finishing strategy. His shots do not penetrate the court, and Djokovic is fast enough to chase them down. Hence Nadal cannot "stay" on the offensive and has to play more defense against Djoko than he does against any other player.

The reason Nadal has been competitive against Djokovic on hardcourts is because the surface speed helps with his serve and the forehand. It allows Nadal the luxury to shorten points against Djokovic because as soon as the rally lengthens Djokovic takes control and pushes Nadal back.

When someone is as fast (or faster) than you, has more stamina and has bigger shots, clay is actually the WORST surface to play against them. Clay actually exposes your game. It is no coincidence that the 2 clay Nadal-Djoko matches in 2011 were straight set affairs. The F.O final also has the potential to be similarly one sided.

IMO, Nadal will have better chances at Wimbledon, if he makes the final there to play Djokovic..
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You're probably right,but I must say that I think RG played faster last year than the AO did this year. The AO was so painfully slow it was difficult for anyone not named Delpo to hit a through it. It was ridiculous.
 
Clarky21 said:
You're probably right,but I must say that I think RG played faster last year than the AO did this year. The AO was so painfully slow it was difficult for anyone not named Delpo to hit a through it. It was ridiculous.
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Yep, he has good points for sure, but I still think Rafa will get him at RG as long as he beats him in one or two of the masters coming up. He can't go 0-4 like he did last year in them.
 
Clarky21 said:
You're probably right,but I must say that I think RG played faster last year than the AO did this year. The AO was so painfully slow it was difficult for anyone not named Delpo to hit a through it. It was ridiculous.
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Slowness matters only to a degree. I don't care HOW SLOW a hardcourt is, it will NEVER play like a clay court. ( This is easily understood when one plays on a hardcourt and shortly after on clay).
No clay will allow the same type of shot penetration than a hardcourt allows. Clay also allows the opportunity for more defense and it's much harder to shorten points on it.
 
TennisFan3 said:
Djokovic will likely beat Nadal at Roiand Garros, and quite possibly in 4 sets i.e in an easier fashion than he did in the AO final.

Clay is likely the worst surface for Nadal to play Djokovic. The slowness of the surface exacerbates Nadal's fundamental problem against Djokovic. That is, Nadal does NOT have a finishing strategy. His shots do not penetrate the court, and Djokovic is fast enough to chase them down. Hence Nadal cannot "stay" on the offensive and has to play more defense against Djoko than he does against any other player.

The reason Nadal has been competitive against Djokovic on hardcourts is because the surface speed helps with his serve and the forehand. It allows Nadal the luxury to shorten points against Djokovic because as soon as the rally lengthens Djokovic takes control and pushes Nadal back.

When someone is as fast (or faster) than you, has more stamina and has bigger shots, clay is actually the WORST surface to play against them. Clay actually exposes your game. It is no coincidence that the 2 clay Nadal-Djoko matches in 2011 were straight set affairs. The F.O final also has the potential to be similarly one sided.

IMO, Nadal will have better chances at Wimbledon, if he makes the final there to play Djokovic..
Click to expand...

I agree with the basic premise here, and I could actually see this playing out; however, while clay is slower, so is the players' movement (due to the lack of friction between your shoes and the court) compared to a stickier hard court.

So Novak won't be gliding around the court quite as quickly as he does on hard court. Secondly, RG is 3 of 5 after all. Thirdly, the lighter balls used last year sped up the court, which would help Rafa. Last, as evidenced by some (not all obviously) of Rafa's play down under vs. Novak, Rafa is trying and getting a little more depth both on his returns and his groundies.

Given all that, I think you gotta give the edge in a RG final to Rafa, who, don't forget, grew up on that stuff. IMHO Rafa really stepped up his clay game by the semis against Murray and would've beaten the Joker, had Novak beaten Fed
 
welcome2petrkordaland said:
I agree with the basic premise here, and I could actually see this playing out; however, while clay is slower, so is the players' movement (due to the lack of friction between your shoes and the court) compared to a stickier hard court.

So Novak won't be gliding around the court quite as quickly as he does on hard court. Secondly, RG is 3 of 5 after all. Thirdly, the lighter balls used last year sped up the court, which would help Rafa. Last, as evidenced by some (not all obviously) of Rafa's play down under vs. Novak, Rafa is trying and getting a little more depth both on his returns and his groundies.

Given all that, I think you gotta give the edge in a RG final to Rafa, who, don't forget, grew up on that stuff. IMHO Rafa really stepped up his clay game by the semis against Murray and would've beaten the Joker, had Novak beaten Fed
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Well, I guess that's the optimistic view. But Nadal will REALLY have to bring his best tennis i.e the 2008 F.O kind to have a shot IMO.

See this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0dDL0Jzknk

This is what Djokovic did to Nadal's backhand at Rome 2011. I've never seen anyone pick Nadal's backhand so much. At the end Rafa was desperate, he was just moonballing from his backhand to get depth. Needless to say, if he does that again, it's lights out..

Nadal needs to serve BIG (not like he does on clay), use his off-forehand way more, and flatten out his backhand, especially down the line. In other words, he will have to go against his instincts on clay, where he is most defensive.

If he doesn't, it will be a sad F.O Sunday final for the hitherto King of clay..
 
MichaelNadal said:
^^Lets see what happens in Rome and Madrid before the eulogy man.
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True. But I'm just saying that at this point Nadal is more likely to beat Djokovic on Wimbledon/UsOpen than on the clay at F.O.

It may sound counter-intuitive but it happens to be true.
 
cc0509 said:
Djokovic has stated in an interview that he would be happy to retire with Borg's number of slams--i.e. 11. I don't think Djokovic thinks that 16 slams is even achievable for him. He is already 24 and will be 25 in May.
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He might get very close to Borg. I could see the Serbian winning around 10 slams.

If Djokovic had been playing like this since he won his first major(2008 ), then he would have reached Federer's 16. But not now. He is 25 and his playing style is not forgiving. Look at Fed he won slams for 8 years in a row, starting with his first major in 2003. Djokovic wasted years of his career after he won his first major and he is 25 now. That is not how you win 16 slams.

MichaelNadal said:
^^Lets see what happens in Rome and Madrid
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Why? Rome, Madrid and even Monte Carlo use heavy, slow balls that don't suit certain players like Federer.... Winning these tuneups means nothing, unlike before 2011, come the FO. Babolat balls(RG balls) are like bullets, fast and light. Believe it or not, RG is Federer's best chance to win a slam this year. The clay is faster as well, they have removed some of it and rarely water it so it can play like HC. But the balls used there are not slower and heavier like the ones used at AO, Wimbledon and USO.
 
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celoft said:
He might get very close to Borg. I could see the Serbian winning around 10 slams.If Djokovic had been playing like this since he won his first major(2008 ), then he would have reached Federer's 16. But not now. He is 25 and his playing style is not forgiving. Look at Fed he won slams for 8 years in a row, starting with his first major in 2003. Djokovic wasted years of his career after he won his first major and he is 25 now. That is not how you win 16 slams.



Why? Rome, Madrid and even Monte Carlo use heavy, slow balls that don't suit certain players like Federer.... Winning these tuneups means nothing, unlike before 2011, come the FO. Babolat balls(RG balls) are like bullets, fast and light. Believe it or not, RG is Federer's best chance to win a slam this year. The clay is faster as well, they have removed some of it and rarely water it so it can play like HC. But the balls used there are not slower and heavier like the ones used at AO, Wimbledon and USO.
Click to expand...



Didn't you swear up annd down that FrankenCvac would never reach double digits in slams while others were telling you he is practically a lock to do so? Why the flip flopping?
 
celoft said:
He might get very close to Borg. I could see the Serbian winning around 10 slams.

If Djokovic had been playing like this since he won his first major(2008 ), then he would have reached Federer's 16. But not now. He is 25 and his playing style is not forgiving. Look at Fed he won slams for 8 years in a row, starting with his first major in 2003. Djokovic wasted years of his career after he won his first major and he is 25 now. That is not how you win 16 slams.
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I totally agree with what you have stated above.
 
Would be great to see Novak bring home his first FO title this year as well as a Grand Slam, is a Golden Slam too much to ask for as well?
 
Lsmkenpo said:
Nadal will not make the semis the giant hitting Swede is expected to return and will likely beat Nadal there once again, Nadal has never defeated a 100% healthy Robin Soderling on clay. It is Nadal's worst nightmare, after his last defeat it took him over a year to recover. I fear the next loss will be too much and Nadal will announce his retirement in the post match press conference, than collapse and have to be rushed to a mental hospital, where he will spend the rest of his life ........muttering to himself...Bo Carl...Bo Carl...Bo Carl over and over, as he arranges the empty water bottles of fellow patients he pulls out of the trash cans on the floor in front of him.

Uncle Toni will visit him once a year on his birthday to bring him a banana.
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that would be wonderful.
(but wouldn't he be muttering "No Vak... No Vak" to himself ?)
by the way, where is this rainman photoshop poster somebody posted some months ago ? :p

i can imagine his fellow patients flipping a coin from time to time... just to have a good laugh watching him inevitably/suddenly run like a mad bull until the end of the room. :)
 
Ferrer appears to lack confidence on big points vs big players. I would be very shocked if Ferrer beats the most self-confident player on tour, at a slam.
 
I can't see any reason why Djoko wouldn't do well at RG but I still think he's more vulnerable there than Rafa (and even Fed even though Fed's age may start weighing on him at this point). Maybe it's a question of stamina. Clay requires more endurance than any hard court surface and a lot of rallies can be gruelling. Despite recent results, I like Rafa's chances vs Novak there, especially with no TB in the 5th. Rafa was close at AO and the RG surface favors him much more than hard court.
 
rommil said:
Huh? Who? What? Rafa gave up? You mean Rafa the warrior fight to the last point Nadal? You must be joking, Nadal_slammmed_king.
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Rafa was distraught in the 1st set when he realized The Rafa Slam was going to be cut short by injury. You could see it in his reactions.
 
veroniquem said:
Ferrer is a nightmare matchup for Rafa but he's not done well vs either (uninjured) Djoko or Fed.
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Let's hear H2H figures first instead of your interpretation of matchup. Since 2008, since as per Nadal fans, pre-2008 was "baby nadal".
And don't count injured-Rafa, since that's just mean and hateful (so no AO-2011)
 
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