Rome 2017 final: Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev

[veroniquem]

He is still in a swoon, yet he has weathered the storm better and indeed he would have lost to most, he seems to try and cruise right now instead pushing himself all out at times and this has not worked.

Cheers
3Fees

Whatever it is, I hope he can fix it soon and I think he will. Eventually. The shots are still there. Mental and consistency are what needs fixing.
His game was completely unrecognizable from previous rounds. I would love to say it is all credit to Z but having watched the match, I don't think it was just that.

 

[veroniquem]

By the way, I don't remember if anyone mentioned it but that hug at the net was really heartfelt. I didn't know Z and D were such good buddies !!!!

 

[Meles]

By the way, I don't remember if anyone mentioned it but that hug at the net was really heartfelt. I didn't know Z and D were such good buddies !!!!

What is your take on the relative trajectories of your three favorites heading into RG?

 

[Gazelle]

By the way, I don't remember if anyone mentioned it but that hug at the net was really heartfelt. I didn't know Z and D were such good buddies !!!!

Don't read much into that. Djokovic is hugging everyone like that nowadays. Amor y paz you know...

 

[veroniquem]

What is your take on the relative trajectories of your three favorites heading into RG?

Let's see. I'm gonna use a few stats to answer your question.

Most titles won on clay in 2017:
1- Nadal: 3 (2 tier 1)
2- Zverev: 2 (1 tier 1)
Best winning % (10+ matches played):
1- Nadal: 94.4
2- Zverev: 84.2
3- Thiem: 81.0
Most matches won overall:
1- Ramos-Vinolas: 18
2- Nadal, Thiem, Carreno Busta: 17
3- Zverev: 16
Most service games won % (10+ matches played):
1- Cilic: 87
2- Nadal: 86
3- Zeballos: 86
4- Coric: 85
Most return games won %
1- Schwartzman: 42
2- Nadal: 40
No one else is even remotely close, next % is 31

Names that appear in all 5 categories? Nadal stands alone way ahead of the pack.
3 categories out of 5: Zverev
More than 1: Thiem (2)

Anyone else winning RG this year will be a huge surprise, rabbit out of hat trick
Everything points to Nadal right now.

But sport can defy logic. Wawrinka, anyone?

 

[sbengte]

I was thinking the same thing, poor Dominic. Strange though that Djokovic saved all his fire for the semis rather than the final. The only thing I can ascribe it to is the fact that Thiem had beaten Nadal the previous round, as if Novak was sending out a message to Rafa saying "this is what I would've done to you too if we were playing tonight".

You don't believe Novak being out of gas for the final mattered among other things like playing Zed for the first time ?

 

[sbengte]

To be fair to Novak, he played absolutely horrible in the final. I'm happy for Z but playing like he did, Novak would have lost to anyone across the net on Sunday.
Maybe playing several days in a row + the emotion of making a master final after a long drought was too much to cope with for him and he needs to get his rhythm back. It takes some time.
Look at how long it took Rafa to extirpate himself from his slump.

Finally someone gets it...I think he will be fine for RG unless he gets a tricky 1st week draw.

 

[sbengte]

Mark my words boys, soon Zverev will be dominating and many of us will be getting just as sick of him as Djokovic/Fed/Nadal. I know I will. Just can't really like him for some reason.

How can you not like him ? He's so cute

When Zed starts dominating I'm going to channel my inner clayqueen and start posting his pictures in all threads

 

[-snake-]

How can you not like him ? He's so cute

When Zed starts dominating I'm going to channel my inner clayqueen and start posting his pictures in all threads

Arghghgh

 

[-snake-]

Mark my words boys, soon Zverev will be dominating and many of us will be getting just as sick of him as Djokovic/Fed/Nadal. I know I will. Just can't really like him for some reason.

Me neither. He's like a succesful Berdych. I don't hate him, he's just meh.

 

[cc0509]

You don't believe Novak being out of gas for the final mattered among other things like playing Zed for the first time ?

NO!

 

[cc0509]

What is your take on the relative trajectories of your three favorites heading into RG?

What "three" favorites?

There aren't "three" favorites!

 

[sbengte]

NO!

You've already answered that, let him answer for himself now

 

[sbengte]

What "three" favorites?

There aren't "three" favorites!

IKR ? It's as if people desperately want to generate interest in a tournament whose winner is a foregone conclusion for the most part.

 

[Mainad]

To be fair to Novak, he played absolutely horrible in the final. I'm happy for Z but playing like he did, Novak would have lost to anyone across the net on Sunday.
Maybe playing several days in a row + the emotion of making a master final after a long drought was too much to cope with for him and he needs to get his rhythm back. It takes some time.
Look at how long it took Rafa to extirpate himself from his slump.

I honestly didn't think he was that bad. True, he made a poor start by losing his opening service game (but how many times have we seen him do that yet quickly recover to win the match?) and was then forever trying to play catch-up which he almost certainly would have done against some lesser opponents but Zverev was just too focussed and too clutch. This unnerved Djokovic and, in my opinion, caused him to make more errors than usual because of the doubt that Zverev had sown in his mind. It was the first time they had met and it quickly became evident that he just didn't know how to handle him. It was a painful learning curve for him but learn from it he will, I'm sure. Even so there was never more than one break per set so there was always the possibility for Djokovic to get back into the match. It was down to Zverev's focus and clutchness that he wasn't able to do so.

 

[cc0509]

IKR ? It's as if people desperately want to generate interest in a tournament whose winner is a foregone conclusion for the most part.

Honestly, you are like a broken record with your Nadal has had lucky draw posts.

Give me a list of players who you think would be an unlucky draw at the FO for Nadal. Which players do you think will pose a great challenge for him?

 

[cc0509]

You've already answered that, let him answer for himself now

I'm just saying when Novak was at his best, he wouldn't have lost to Zverev in a Masters 1000 final of all things.

 

[sbengte]

Honestly, you are like a broken record with your Nadal has had lucky draw posts.

Give me a list of players who you think would be an unlucky draw at the FO for Nadal. Which players do you think will pose a great challenge for him?

Right now, there is none because the field is seriously crap. He just needs to show up and that's it and I've been saying it through the clay season.

But that doesn't mean he hasn't had some exceptionally lucky draws in the past. It is easy to say post facto that 'he could have won with any draw' but that isn't the case at all. He is vulnerable in the early rounds and rarely gets a player who can challenge him (with Wimby being the only exception).

See what happened in Wimbledon when he started drawing tricky players in the first week. If he had for instance avoided drawing Kyrgios in 2014 he could have gone all the way and won the tournament. Then you'd be saying 'but which draw would have posed a challenge for him ?'

 

[cc0509]

Right now, there is none because the field is seriously crap. He just needs to show up and that's it and I've been saying it through the clay season.

But that doesn't mean he hasn't had some exceptionally lucky draws in the past. It is easy to say post facto that 'he could have won with any draw' but that isn't the case at all. He is vulnerable in the early rounds and rarely gets a player who can challenge him (with Wimby being the only exception).

See what happened in Wimbledon when he started drawing tricky players in the first week. If he had for instance avoided drawing Kyrgios in 2014 he could have gone all the way and won the tournament. Then you'd be saying 'but which draw would have posed a challenge for him ?'

He's vulnerable in the early rounds of Wimbledon and the USO but the FO when he's in good form? I don't know man.

All players (Fed,Djokovic,Nadal,etc) get some more favorable draws and less favorable draws. Don't get me started on Djokovic's USO draw last year for example. You are way too focused on Nadal when it comes to this subject.

He's the clay GOAT for a reason and when he was in decent form no other great player could challenge him there meaning Fed or Djokovic so I'm not sure how you could have picked a draw that would have challenged him year after year at the FO. And yes, Soderling was a one-off.

Dear Lord, I sure hope he doesn't lose early after all my posts saying he is a lock for the RG title this year!

 

[YellowFedBetter]

How can you not like him ? He's so cute

When Zed starts dominating I'm going to channel my inner clayqueen and start posting his pictures in all threads

Yes I'm a guy but I have no problem saying he's good looking But it doesn't change my opinion of him otherwise.

 

[YellowFedBetter]

Me neither. He's like a succesful Berdych. I don't hate him, he's just meh.

Exactly. Took the words out of my mouth.

 

[Mike Sams]

He's vulnerable in the early rounds of Wimbledon and the USO but the FO when he's in good form? I don't know man.

All players (Fed,Djokovic,Nadal,etc) get some more favorable draws and less favorable draws. Don't get me started on Djokovic's USO draw last year for example. You are way too focused on Nadal when it comes to this subject.

He's the clay GOAT for a reason and when he was in decent form no other great player could challenge him there meaning Fed or Djokovic so I'm not sure how you could have picked a draw that would have challenged him year after year at the FO. And yes, Soderling was a one-off.

Dear Lord, I sure hope he doesn't lose early after all my posts saying he is a lock for the RG title this year!

I felt that in some of those early Federer/Nadal matches, it was more so what Federer didn't do as opposed to what Nadal did do. The French Open 2007 final was a horrendous performance by Federer. Going 1/17 in BP conversions told the story that day. Heck he could've just camped out back where the linesman were standing and whacked the living you know what out of the ball and converted at a higher percentage than he actually did. LOL
Nadal didn't play exceptionally well that day either despite the sunny conditions and bouncy court.

 

[veroniquem]

I honestly didn't think he was that bad. True, he made a poor start by losing his opening service game (but how many times have we seen him do that yet quickly recover to win the match?) and was then forever trying to play catch-up which he almost certainly would have done against some lesser opponents but Zverev was just too focussed and too clutch. This unnerved Djokovic and, in my opinion, caused him to make more errors than usual because of the doubt that Zverev had sown in his mind. It was the first time they had met and it quickly became evident that he just didn't know how to handle him. It was a painful learning curve for him but learn from it he will, I'm sure. Even so there was never more than one break per set so there was always the possibility for Djokovic to get back into the match. It was down to Zverev's focus and clutchness that he wasn't able to do so.

You can try to justify it any way you want but his level was very mediocre compared to the rest of the week and it got worse as the match progressed. The way he lost his service game for the match was so lame, I could hardly keep my focus on the match. Once again, I would rather think that Sascha was GOATing, it would have made the match so much more gripping, but it simply wasn't the case and the encounter never got competitive. I hope Sascha realizes that and doesn't go into RG thinking he's unbeatable (and I am mortified to have to admit it but the Zverev/Isner semi was better quality and (gasp) rather more exciting as well Who would have thought, right? Not me for sure...)

 

[veroniquem]

Finally someone gets it...I think he will be fine for RG unless he gets a tricky 1st week draw.

He won't be fine for RG. He obviously needs more time. I would be absolutely stunned if he even made semi, regardless of draw. His head is still not in the right place. It's a long recovery process and RG is not an event/surface where he feels super comfortable to begin with (that's why it's the only slam he won only once).
Actually, none of the "usual" top players (other than Rafa) is in form right now. Rafa's challengers this year are new blood type like Zverev, not the established big names. Basically, it's calves vs bull this year. Maybe that's what makes it interesting because it sure is a different situation than the previous years when Djokodal or Fedal almost seemed like a given.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

You can try to justify it any way you want but his level was very mediocre compared to the rest of the week and it got worse as the match progressed. The way he lost his service game for the match was so lame, I could hardly keep my focus on the match. Once again, I would rather think that Sascha was GOATing, it would have made the match so much more gripping, but it simply wasn't the case and the encounter never got competitive. I hope Sascha realizes that and doesn't go into RG thinking he's unbeatable (and I am mortified to have to admit it but the Zverev/Isner semi was better quality and (gasp) rather more exciting as well Who would have thought, right? Not me for sure...)

Djokovic won 9/45 return points, that is 20%, and progressed past 15 only once (of Zverev's 9 holds, 1 was to 30, 7 were to 15 and 1 was to 0). Don't think he has ever been so hopeless on return in a given match since as far back as 2005. Definitely a case of Djovak regressing to Karlovic level of return prowess rather than Zvrv developing Karlobot-tier botting skillz, although his serve is pretty good as it is.

 

[cc0509]

I felt that in some of those early Federer/Nadal matches, it was more so what Federer didn't do as opposed to what Nadal did do. The French Open 2007 final was a horrendous performance by Federer. Going 1/17 in BP conversions told the story that day. Heck he could've just camped out back where the linesman were standing and whacked the living you know what out of the ball and converted at a higher percentage than he actually did. LOL
Nadal didn't play exceptionally well that day either despite the sunny conditions and bouncy court.

Federer could have done many things differently but I never felt he was as competent as Nadal was on clay especially in best of five at the FO. Did Federer make any of the FO matches vs Nadal close because if he did I don't remember any and by close I mean taking any of those matches to five sets? At least Djokovic took Nadal to five sets in 2013.

 

[veroniquem]

Djokovic won 9/45 return points, that is 20%, and progressed past 15 only once (of Zverev's 9 holds, 1 was to 30, 7 were to 15 and 1 was to 0). Don't think he has ever been so hopeless on return in a given match since as far back as 2005. Definitely a case of Djovak regressing to Karlovic level of return prowess rather than Zvrv developing Karlobot-tier botting skillz, although his serve is pretty good as it is.

Djoko has a huge problem with his own serve. His clay stats have regressed since last year but not that drastically. The huge gap is in: 2nd serve points won: from 57% in 2016 to 50% in 2017 and service games won: from 85% in 2016 to 79% in 2017. That's been his main problem all year and on hard as well. He can't win matches with no serve. (note that those 2 categories are the only ones that show more than 5% difference between last year and this year).

 

[Deleted member 716271]

I think the bottom line is Nadal is the heavy favorite, perhaps odds on. but I think Djokovic being the 2nd favorite is reasonable.

 

[Mainad]

You can try to justify it any way you want but his level was very mediocre compared to the rest of the week and it got worse as the match progressed. The way he lost his service game for the match was so lame, I could hardly keep my focus on the match. Once again, I would rather think that Sascha was GOATing, it would have made the match so much more gripping, but it simply wasn't the case and the encounter never got competitive. I hope Sascha realizes that and doesn't go into RG thinking he's unbeatable (and I am mortified to have to admit it but the Zverev/Isner semi was better quality and (gasp) rather more exciting as well Who would have thought, right? Not me for sure...)

Well, that was my impression. Feel free to disagree, although I confess to being astonished that you seem prepared to accord Sasha so little credit for his victory. Maybe Djoko just edges him out in the swoon stakes after all?

 

[veroniquem]

Well, that was my impression. Feel free to disagree, although I confess to being astonished that you seem prepared to accord Sasha so little credit for his victory. Maybe Djoko just edges him out in the swoon stakes after all?

He he there is swoon and then there's tennis, 2 different things. Some matches are classics, others are letdowns. Surely, you are not arguing this match fits in the first category
Not Zverev's fault. What impressed me most about Z is how calm and focused he was, no nerves at all but tennis-wise, he really didn't have to push himself. The first set of the Raonic match and the Isner match were a lot more competitive. And even, amazingly, those 2 notoriously poor returners put more pressure on Z's service games than Novak did. Djoko just didn't show up in that final, it's like he never managed to get into it (despite a few great points)

 

[Mainad]

He he there is swoon and then there's tennis, 2 different things. Some matches are classics, others are letdowns. Surely, you are not arguing this match fits in the first category
Not Zverev's fault. What impressed me most about Z is how calm and focused he was, no nerves at all but tennis-wise, he really didn't have to push himself. The first set of the Raonic match and the Isner match were a lot more competitive. And even, amazingly, those 2 notoriously poor returners put more pressure on Z's service games than Novak did. Djoko just didn't show up in that final, it's like he never managed to get into it (despite a few great points)

The Raonic and Isner victories helped give Zverev confidence (he said as much himself) and that was a major factor in why Djokovic 'never managed to get into it' as you put it. Remember there was only a single service break in both sets. If Zverev had been only slightly more nervous and slightly less clutch on serve and in his ground strokes (which would have been entirely understandable given it was his maiden Masters final and first ever encounter with Novak), Djokovic would have won that match.

 

[veroniquem]

The Raonic and Isner victories helped give Zverev confidence (he said as much himself) and that was a major factor in why Djokovic 'never managed to get into it' as you put it. Remember there was only a single service break in both sets. If Zverev had been only slightly more nervous and slightly less clutch on serve and in his ground strokes (which would have been entirely understandable given it was his maiden Masters final and first ever encounter with Novak), Djokovic would have won that match.

No, he wouldn't have. His main problem was holding, forget about breaking.
Look, you want me to argue that Murray is playing his best tennis right now? Because that would be every bit as ridiculous as claiming Djoko did in the Rome final and the stats back that up.
Overall, Djoko's serve stats have been ominous this season. The positive is that occasionally, the serve comes back but it's still very erratic from one day to the next.
I have posted the difference between 2016 and 2017 for Djoko on clay: from 57% to 50% 2nd serve pts won and from 85% to 79% in service games won. Too breakable, especially in big matches when the pressure is on. He's getting better though but just not consistently better yet.

 

[cc0509]

He won't be fine for RG. He obviously needs more time. I would be absolutely stunned if he even made semi, regardless of draw. His head is still not in the right place. It's a long recovery process and RG is not an event/surface where he feels super comfortable to begin with (that's why it's the only slam he won only once).
Actually, none of the "usual" top players (other than Rafa) is in form right now. Rafa's challengers this year are new blood type like Zverev, not the established big names. Basically, it's calves vs bull this year. Maybe that's what makes it interesting because it sure is a different situation than the previous years when Djokodal or Fedal almost seemed like a given.

Your Fed hate is out of control and it blinds you but I completely agree with your sane analysis here.

How can Djokovic be the favorite for this FO title based on his shabby results the entire year and more specifically on clay recently? Also, the FO was always Djokovic's toughest slam to win even when he was at peak.

I don't know if I'm going crazy and watching the same sport as other people or not with so many saying Djokovic is the favorite. The truth is I think more posters hate Nadal on this forum than they do Djokovic and are resisting what seems obvious to me. Some posters think Djokovic is going to wave his magic wand and poof, a FO title will come, dismal form or not.

Is it possible that he could regroup in time and win the FO? Sure, I guess so but man, it sure looks like a long shot to me at the moment and believe me, I thought Djokovic was the big favorite to win the FO in 2015/16.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Djoko has a huge problem with his own serve. His clay stats have regressed since last year but not that drastically. The huge gap is in: 2nd serve points won: from 57% in 2016 to 50% in 2017 and service games won: from 85% in 2016 to 79% in 2017. That's been his main problem all year and on hard as well. He can't win matches with no serve. (note that those 2 categories are the only ones that show more than 5% difference between last year and this year).

Big servers are still Djokovic's worst match-up, only now he's more vulnerable to them, being more likely to give them break leads and less likely to break. Otherwise, he usually still breaks more than he gets broken. But there's another specific problem of constantly losing his opening service games, thus giving opponents advantage from the get-go. This has been happening with an alarming frequency, about 2 of every 3 matches.

 

[veroniquem]

Big servers are still Djokovic's worst match-up, only now he's more vulnerable to them, being more likely to give them break leads and less likely to break. Otherwise, he usually still breaks more than he gets broken. But there's another specific problem of constantly losing his opening service games, thus giving opponents advantage from the get-go. This has been happening with an alarming frequency, about 2 of every 3 matches.

I don't have a problem with his return game. He was never as good a returner on clay as he is on hard anyway. Certainly not in same category as a Nadal. And Zverev did serve excellently in this match.
No, what drives me nuts is those service games in which he suddenly self-destroys for no discernable reason. Mental or physical? Concentration?
Under Becker's guidance, his 2nd serve became a lot more lethal, that won him so many matches. That has reversed spectacularly. And the stats reflect that.
On the bright side, he can now be solid on serve during a whole match. Just not all the time. Once that aspect gets stabilized, we'll get the Nole we know and love back. Maybe not as dominant but a lot more competitive for sure. (The other problem is depth of shot, erratic too, not there in every match but at least there were a couple last week when that was back in full force as well)

ETA: service games won % in the 70s is not gonna cut it. What's ironical is that it was exactly Nadal's problem over the last 3 years or so. Did they swap bodies or what?

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

I don't have a problem with his return game. He was never as good a returner on clay as he is on hard anyway. Certainly not in same category as a Nadal. And Zverev did serve excellently in this match.

Oh please. Even against Claydal Djokovic never performed as bad on return as against Zverev (20% return points won, again!!). It was a crap return performance, besides being a crap serve performance obviously with muggy breaks.

No, what drives me nuts is those service games in which he suddenly self-destroys for no discernable reason. Mental or physical? Concentration?
Under Becker's guidance, his 2nd serve became a lot more lethal, that won him so many matches. That has reversed spectacularly. And the stats reflect that.
On the bright side, he can now be solid on serve during a whole match. Just not all the time. Once that aspect gets stabilized, we'll get the Nole we know and love back. Maybe not as dominant but a lot more competitive for sure. (The other problem is depth of shot, erratic too, not there in every match but at least there were a couple last week when that was back in full force as well)

ETA: service games won % in the 70s is not gonna cut it. What's ironical is that it was exactly Nadal's problem over the last 3 years or so. Did they swap bodies or what?

Djovak didn't have a world beating 2nd serve in 2011-2014 either, but repeatedly showed clutchness saving heaps of BPs. With that mental focus gone, him being sucky on serve isn't illogical. He wasn't going to BOAT on 2nd serve for long anyway, that takes 100% form and commitment.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Let's see. I'm gonna use a few stats to answer your question.

Most titles won on clay in 2017:
1- Nadal: 3 (2 tier 1)
2- Zverev: 2 (1 tier 1)
Best winning % (10+ matches played):
1- Nadal: 94.4
2- Zverev: 84.2
3- Thiem: 81.0
Most matches won overall:
1- Ramos-Vinolas: 18
2- Nadal, Thiem, Carreno Busta: 17
3- Zverev: 16
Most service games won % (10+ matches played):
1- Cilic: 87
2- Nadal: 86
3- Zeballos: 86
4- Coric: 85
Most return games won %
1- Schwartzman: 42
2- Nadal: 40
No one else is even remotely close, next % is 31

Names that appear in all 5 categories? Nadal stands alone way ahead of the pack.
3 categories out of 5: Zverev
More than 1: Thiem (2)

Anyone else winning RG this year will be a huge surprise, rabbit out of hat trick
Everything points to Nadal right now.

But sport can defy logic. Wawrinka, anyone?

Good stuff. So how do Zverev and Thiem stack up statswise on clay this year?
I would have assumed that Thiem might have been ahead before his train wreck of a match against Djokovic in the Rome SF but I could be wrong.

Maybe we will see them in a FO showdown. Hopefully no Zebra outfits this year!

 

[veroniquem]

Oh please. Even against Claydal Djokovic never performed as bad on return as against Zverev (20% return points won, again!!). It was a crap return performance, besides being a crap serve performance obviously with muggy breaks.
.

His overall perf on return on clay is around the low 30s anyway and you have to factor in how well the opponent served. Some players, you won't get a 30% success against. Some players you could get higher. Stats are just an average.
However, Z is not the returner of the century and there was no reason for Djoko to crumble multiple times on serve the way he did.
That was my point.
I think we agree overall that this was a subpar match from Novak with low intensity, lack of aggression, shaky concentration, little depth of shot and poor accuracy.
I know he did the same vs Murray in Rome last year and still beat Murray for the title at RG but Djoko's situation is different this year.

 

[veroniquem]

Good stuff. So how do Zverev and Thiem stack up statswise on clay this year?
I would have assumed that Thiem might have been ahead before his train wreck of a match against Djokovic in the Rome SF but I could be wrong.

Maybe we will see them in a FO showdown. Hopefully no Zebra outfits this year!

Ha ha yeah. I could do without the Zebra outfits!
Service games won on clay (2017):
Z: 84%
T: 83%
Return games won:
T: 31%
Z: 27%
Winning %:
Z: 84.2
T: 81.0
Titles:
Z: 2 (Munich, Rome)
T: 1 (Rio)
Matches won:
T: 17
Z: 16

If you look strictly at stats: edge Zverev but to be fair, Thiem bumped into king Nadal 3 times while Zverev didn't face the bull for either of his 2 titles + Thiem scored a win vs Nadal who's been the man to beat this clay season. Z impressed me a lot in Rome but overall they're close to tie at being the main challengers for the trophy this RG. The other thing is that if they have to play each other like last year, it seems it would be adv Thiem in that matchup. So it also depends on the draw.

 

[Meles]

Your Fed hate is out of control and it blinds you but I completely agree with your sane analysis here.

How can Djokovic be the favorite for this FO title based on his shabby results the entire year and more specifically on clay recently? Also, the FO was always Djokovic's toughest slam to win even when he was at peak.

I don't know if I'm going crazy and watching the same sport as other people or not with so many saying Djokovic is the favorite. The truth is I think more posters hate Nadal on this forum than they do Djokovic and are resisting what seems obvious to me. Some posters think Djokovic is going to wave his magic wand and poof, a FO title will come, dismal form or not.

Is it possible that he could regroup in time and win the FO? Sure, I guess so but man, it sure looks like a long shot to me at the moment and believe me, I thought Djokovic was the big favorite to win the FO in 2015/16.

You've finally seen the light after being giddy as a school girl over Novak's creaming of Thiem. Djokovic is vulnerable to servebots right now and the section of the draw with Nishikori and Delpo was decidedly weak (Delpo just got dumped out of Lyon by 100th ranked Ellias, Kei plummeting in the rankings.) He may make another SF or Final at RG with a good draw, but he could go down much earlier with the wrong draw.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Ha ha yeah. I could do without the Zebra outfits!
Service games won on clay (2017):
Z: 84%
T: 83%
Return games won:
T: 31%
Z: 27%
Winning %:
Z: 84.2
T: 81.0
Titles:
Z: 2 (Munich, Rome)
T: 1 (Rio)
Matches won:
T: 17
Z: 16

If you look strictly at stats: edge Zverev but to be fair, Thiem bumped into king Nadal 3 times while Zverev didn't face the bull for either of his 2 titles + Thiem scored a win vs Nadal who's been the man to beat this clay season. Z impressed me a lot in Rome but overall they're close to tie at being the main challengers for the trophy this RG. The other thing is that if they have to play each other like last year, it seems it would be adv Thiem in that matchup. So it also depends on the draw.

I'd also give the edge to Thiem on clay. Hopefully we will see many battles between the two on all surfaces in the next few years.

 

[Meles]

I honestly didn't think he was that bad. True, he made a poor start by losing his opening service game (but how many times have we seen him do that yet quickly recover to win the match?) and was then forever trying to play catch-up which he almost certainly would have done against some lesser opponents but Zverev was just too focussed and too clutch. This unnerved Djokovic and, in my opinion, caused him to make more errors than usual because of the doubt that Zverev had sown in his mind. It was the first time they had met and it quickly became evident that he just didn't know how to handle him. It was a painful learning curve for him but learn from it he will, I'm sure. Even so there was never more than one break per set so there was always the possibility for Djokovic to get back into the match. It was down to Zverev's focus and clutchness that he wasn't able to do so.

Exactly.

Zverev is simply a horror of a matchup for Djokovic. Maybe on some really slow clay he might break the new Zverev, but this kid now has a servebot class first serve (not Nole's cup of tea even at his peak) plus a 2nd serve which looks a lot like another first serve (180 kph all too often until this match was on ice and Zed had a couple DFs and backed off.) Of course Djokovic looked terrible as when he saw a 2nd serve it actually surprised him and was like a changeup from the steady diet of heat. Djokovic has no answer or hope against this type of game and few players do (Zverev thumping along at over 58% of 2nd serve points won on clay with this serve). Zverev has an excellent first return and was able to keep Djokovic on the defensive on more of his serve points than he expected. Djokovic wanted to dominate from the baseline, but he just was too much on the defensive to ever make this game plan work. Zverev defends like Simon with more power and depth. Wishful thinking by Djokovic fans if they think Zverev will bring any less in future encounters.

Murray is just the type of player to stop Zverev with his excellent returning and handling of big servers. Andy will survive the arrival of this wunderkind, but Nole's and Stan's days are numbered.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

His overall perf on return on clay is around the low 30s anyway and you have to factor in how well the opponent served. Some players, you won't get a 30% success against. Some players you could get higher. Stats are just an average.

Zverev served consistently well, but Djokovic completely fumbled on every chance he had to push Zvrv on serve (missed groundstrokes and 2nd serve returns). Not even getting to deuce once, pathetic. That's something only Serverer and Karlobot could do to prime (and healthy) Djokovic, and Zverev is a good server, but not close to those two (yet, perhaps).

However, Z is not the returner of the century and there was no reason for Djoko to crumble multiple times on serve the way he did.
That was my point.
I think we agree overall that this was a subpar match from Novak with low intensity, lack of aggression, shaky concentration, little depth of shot and poor accuracy.
I know he did the same vs Murray in Rome last year and still beat Murray for the title at RG but Djoko's situation is different this year.

True. Last year's Rome, Djok was a bit off, but also legitimately tired after surviving Bagelucci and GOATikori despite being off, so this could be seen as a blip, and Djokovic's momentum didn't get derailed. This year, he was totally fresh after getting to the final in straights and destroying Thiem in the semis, not to mention he was obviously expected to show the maiden finalist youngster what the real deal is, so the spectacular failure to do so must have been quite a blow.

 

[Chanwan]

Federer could have done many things differently but I never felt he was as competent as Nadal was on clay especially in best of five at the FO. Did Federer make any of the FO matches vs Nadal close because if he did I don't remember any and by close I mean taking any of those matches to five sets? At least Djokovic took Nadal to five sets in 2013.

He did not. But he "should" have been up 2-1 in 2011. Lost the first set from SP at 5-2 on a drop shot a quarter on an inch wide.

 

[Chanwan]

Djoko has a huge problem with his own serve. His clay stats have regressed since last year but not that drastically. The huge gap is in: 2nd serve points won: from 57% in 2016 to 50% in 2017 and service games won: from 85% in 2016 to 79% in 2017. That's been his main problem all year and on hard as well. He can't win matches with no serve. (note that those 2 categories are the only ones that show more than 5% difference between last year and this year).

he won 85 % of his service game on HC this year, that's more or less equivalent to his 2011 stats iirc. Difference: That year he was godly on return.
He's declined in both. But the level is still there every now and then. I honestly have him as a 2nd favorite at the FO. The 3 guys who've done best on clay aside from Rafa are all unknowns when it comes to the slams (Thiem, Zverev, Goffin). And there's something to be said about having been there, done that.

The Raonic and Isner victories helped give Zverev confidence (he said as much himself) and that was a major factor in why Djokovic 'never managed to get into it' as you put it. Remember there was only a single service break in both sets. If Zverev had been only slightly more nervous and slightly less clutch on serve and in his ground strokes (which would have been entirely understandable given it was his maiden Masters final and first ever encounter with Novak), Djokovic would have won that match.

Agree until the last point: It needs to read, "the match could have been a lot closer". Zverev still had plenty of wiggle room given how unclutch Djoko was (losing the MP on an 8 feet long regulation BH, wtf?). Zverev could have won it from 5-all in the 2nd, in a TB in the second or in the third. Djoko, of course, would have stood a better chance had Zverev shown nerves. But in this match, the one showing nerves was the vily veteran.

 

[Chanwan]

Exactly.

Zverev is simply a horror of a matchup for Djokovic. Maybe on some really slow clay he might break the new Zverev, but this kid now has a servebot class first serve (not Nole's cup of tea even at his peak) plus a 2nd serve which looks a lot like another first serve (180 kph all too often until this match was on ice and Zed had a couple DFs and backed off.) Of course Djokovic looked terrible as when he saw a 2nd serve it actually surprised him and was like a changeup from the steady diet of heat. Djokovic has no answer or hope against this type of game and few players do (Zverev thumping along at over 58% of 2nd serve points won on clay with this serve). Zverev has an excellent first return and was able to keep Djokovic on the defensive on more of his serve points than he expected. Djokovic wanted to dominate from the baseline, but he just was too much on the defensive to ever make this game plan work. Zverev defends like Simon with more power and depth. Wishful thinking by Djokovic fans if they think Zverev will bring any less in future encounters.

Murray is just the type of player to stop Zverev with his excellent returning and handling of big servers. Andy will survive the arrival of this wunderkind, but Nole's and Stan's days are numbered.

- that said, seems like you have a twin: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/zverev-infosys-may-2017-serving
"
Overall in Rome, Zverev won 55.6 per cent (466/838) of total points - a significant jump over his 2017 season average of 52.1 per cent (2784/5339).

His Rome numbers send an ominous warning to the rest of the tour. If he can keep that up for a full season, that’s right where the World No. 1 ends up in total points won."

Now that's Meles hyperbole if I ever saw it...

 

[Meles]

- that said, seems like you have a twin: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/zverev-infosys-may-2017-serving
"
Overall in Rome, Zverev won 55.6 per cent (466/838) of total points - a significant jump over his 2017 season average of 52.1 per cent (2784/5339).

His Rome numbers send an ominous warning to the rest of the tour. If he can keep that up for a full season, that’s right where the World No. 1 ends up in total points won."

Now that's Meles hyperbole if I ever saw it...

LOL. Crude stats work. Zverev is a huge threat until we return to hard courts and then the party will be over. He might end up at 52.5% on hard court points won if he finishes season well.

 

[Meles]

he won 85 % of his service game on HC this year, that's more or less equivalent to his 2011 stats iirc. Difference: That year he was godly on return.
He's declined in both. But the level is still there every now and then. I honestly have him as a 2nd favorite at the FO. The 3 guys who've done best on clay aside from Rafa are all unknowns when it comes to the slams (Thiem, Zverev, Goffin). And there's something to be said about having been there, done that.

Agree until the last point: It needs to read, "the match could have been a lot closer". Zverev still had plenty of wiggle room given how unclutch Djoko was (losing the MP on an 8 feet long regulation BH, wtf?). Zverev could have won it from 5-all in the 2nd, in a TB in the second or in the third. Djoko, of course, would have stood a better chance had Zverev shown nerves. But in this match, the one showing nerves was the vily veteran.

Shame. Djoko serves stats actually pretty weak in 2011, so you're blowing some serious smoke comparing those numbers with 2017.

You are backing geriatrics on clay, not historically the best move with a crop of strong young contenders.

 

[cc0509]

You've finally seen the light after being giddy as a school girl over Novak's creaming of Thiem. Djokovic is vulnerable to servebots right now and the section of the draw with Nishikori and Delpo was decidedly weak (Delpo just got dumped out of Lyon by 100th ranked Ellias, Kei plummeting in the rankings.) He may make another SF or Final at RG with a good draw, but he could go down much earlier with the wrong draw.

Yes, the draw will be important but one thing is for sure, your hero Thiem won't beat Djokovic if they meet. Thiem loses in the locker room before he steps onto court with Djokovic. He clearly doesn't believe he can beat Djokovic according to comments.

 

[Gary Duane]

Yes, the draw will be important but one thing is for sure, your hero Thiem won't beat Djokovic if they meet. Thiem loses in the locker room before he steps onto court with Djokovic. He clearly doesn't believe he can beat Djokovic according to comments.

If Thiem loses in the locker room it will be because Djokovic is starting to come back, which may already be happening.

A lot of people may be making a huge mistake by assuming Novak is not going to bounce back, and that includes me...