Round of 32 by age

The bookies still have Sinner as favorite for tomorrow, though by a small margin - roughly 55-45.

When I was a teenager in the UK, I often stayed up late watching the US Open. But that was because of the time zone difference. On Thursday, I stayed up until 1 a.m. watching the women's semi-finals (which were great, by the way!) even though I was in the same time zone as the tournament. I think they really should stop playing so many matches at the AO and USO that go well past midnight local time.
Yeah I have no clue what to expect really. Their H2H on HC has been really strange. I dont think the matches prior to 2024 are very relevant, and IW is super slow.

I also wonder about the dynamics. The ones who have managed to trouble Sinner a bit in the grass/HC slams are players with a very serve based game; Shapo, FAA, Dimitrov. Very different players from Alcaraz.

The positive thing for Sinner in this match up is that Raz serve is attackable. On the other hand Raz is a great returner himself. Thats why I think 1st serve in% will be crucial here. If Sinner keeps it high he is almost impossible to break on medium HC/grass. At W Sinner kept it above 60% and that worked! Vs FAA yesterday it was way off.
 
I had a busy day yesterday so I was only able to watch the first match from halfway through set 2 onwards and I only saw a few points from the second match. What did you make of them? Did FAA show enough to suggest that there's any chance of him making the improvements necessary to challenge more consistently?

Djokovic made all four slam SFs this year (and never was taken to five en route to the semis) but he didn't win a set in any of the slam SFs. I think it's safe to say he's reached the point at which he's very unlikely to challenge the top players in big matches anymore.
Just rewatched some of the SF vs FAA. It actually made me less worried. FAA is playing out of his mind in the 2nd set. He is impossible to break as he hits 74% 1st serves. Sinner just loses a bit focus at 3-4 and FAA is playing great and is a little lucky. It happens. Apart from that Sinner is pretty much in control.

When FAA is on you cant really expect to see a 1-6, 1-6 scoreline, as his game is very serve based, he is not that easy to break. Its the few games he is off that makes the change. This is also why he pretty much suc1s on clay where the serve has less to say.

So my conclusion; the difference from Cincy is on FAA, not Sinner. At Cincy he hit 55% 1st serves, at USO 65%. At Cincy he hit 8DFs and 0 aces, at USO 5 DFs and 9 aces. In the 3rd and 4th set FAA isnt playing bad, Sinner is just better.
 
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Just rewatched some of the SF vs FAA. It actually made me less worried. FAA is playing out of his mind in the 2nd set. He is impossible to break as he hits 74% 1st serves. Sinner just loses a bit focus at 3-4 and FAA is playing great and is a little lucky. It happens. Apart from that Sinner is pretty much in control.

When FAA is on you cant really expect to see a 1-6, 1-6 scoreline, as his game is very serve based, he is not that easy to break. Its the few games he is off that makes the change. This is also why he pretty much suc1s on clay where the serve has less to say.

So my conclusion; the difference from Cincy is on FAA, not Sinner. At Cincy he hit 55% 1st serves, at USO 65%. At Cincy he hit 8DFs and 0 aces, at USO 5 DFs and 9 aces. In the 3rd and 4th set FAA isnt playing bad, Sinner is just better.

Thanks for that. Did it look like if FAA were to improve a few things he might be a threat at the hard court slams in the next two or three years?
 
Thanks for that. Did it look like if FAA were to improve a few things he might be a threat at the hard court slams in the next two or three years?
Hard to say really, lots to improve. He made twice as many UEs as Sinner, and i even think Sinner let his guard down a few occations. He isnt a threat to Sincaraz now, so he will need to improve, and he is 3y older than Raz and 1y older than Sinner.
 
Hard to say really, lots to improve. He made twice as many UEs as Sinner, and i even think Sinner let his guard down a few occations. He isnt a threat to Sincaraz now, so he will need to improve, and he is 3y older than Raz and 1y older than Sinner.

Yes, he is going to need to be the Wawrinka of his generation. Stan was a top 30 player at the age of 21, just like Felix was on tour at a young age. But Stan took forever to put it together to become a slam champion [seven years to find championship-winning form; another year to actually win one].

I'm not sure Felix has it in him to do that, but this event should show that he can at least do better than he has been doing for the last couple of years.
 
Yes, he is going to need to be the Wawrinka of his generation. Stan was a top 30 player at the age of 21, just like Felix was on tour at a young age. But Stan took forever to put it together to become a slam champion [seven years to find championship-winning form; another year to actually win one].

I'm not sure Felix has it in him to do that, but this event should show that he can at least do better than he has been doing for the last couple of years.
Yep. This surely is a new FAA. Actually Sinner plays a great match, you cant really blame him for losing a set to FAA here. In the third set i think FAA plays great. Sinner only hits 40% first serves, still FAA cant get to a single BP. Its great tennis by FAA, but Sinner is just too good here. If Felix continue to play like this USO he is top10, maybe even top5. I think Sinner wins today with a decent 1st serve in%.
 
Australian Open 2026, Women's Singles 3rd Round

18: Jovic, Andreeva, Valentova
19: Mboko, Bartunkova
21: Gauff, Shnaider, Noskova
23: Tauson, Sonmez, Selekhmeteva
24: Potapova, Baptiste, Wang Xinyu, Stearns, Anisimova, Swiatek
26: Rybakina
27: Sabalenka, Kalinskaya
28: Ruse, Osaka, Inglis
29: Muchova
30: Paolini, Keys, Mertens
31: Putintseva, Svitolina, Pegula
33: Linette, Pliskova

By Age Bracket:
15-19: 5
20-24: 12
25-29: 7
30-34: 8
35-39: 0
 
Australian Open 2026, Men's Singles 3rd Round

20: Tien, Mensik
21: Quinn
22: Alcaraz
23: Musetti, Shelton, Darderi
24: Spizzirri, Sinner
25: Machac
26: Moutet, Davidovich Fokina, Etcheverry, De Minaur, Marozsan
27: Cerundolo, Vacherot, Ruud
28: Paul, Bublik, Tiafoe [turned 28 on 20 January], Zverev, Rublev, Borges, Fritz
29: Medvedev, Khachanov
30: Norrie, Van de Zandschulp
37: Cilic
38: Djokovic
40: Wawrinka

By Age Bracket: (overall)
15-19: 0
20-24: 9
25-29: 17
30-34: 2
35-39: 2
40-44: 1

Incidentally, the two halves are quite divergent from each other. The top half is bunched in the middle; the bottom half is spread out. Here they are:

By Age Bracket: (top half)
15-19: 0
20-24: 2
25-29: 13
30-34: 1
35-39: 0
40-44: 0

By Age Bracket: (bottom half)
15-19: 0
20-24: 7
25-29: 5
30-34: 1
35-39: 2
40-44: 1
 
Australian Open 2026, Women's Singles 4th Round

18: Jovic, Andreeva
19: Mboko
21: Gauff
24: Wang Xinyu, Anisimova, Swiatek
26: Rybakina
27: Sabalenka
28: Inglis
29: Muchova
30: Keys, Mertens
31: Putintseva, Svitolina, Pegula

By Age Bracket:
15-19: 3
20-24: 4
25-29: 4
30-34: 5
35-39: 0
 
Australian Open 2026, Men's Singles 4th Round

20: Tien, Mensik
22: Alcaraz
23: Musetti, Shelton, Darderi
24: Sinner
26: De Minaur
27: Cerundolo, Ruud
28: Paul, Bublik, Zverev, Fritz
29: Medvedev
38: Djokovic

By Age Bracket:
20-24: 7
25-29: 8
30-34: 0
35-39: 1
40-44: 0
 
Australian Open 2026, Women's Singles Quarter-Finals

18: Jovic
21: Gauff
24: Anisimova, Swiatek
26: Rybakina
27: Sabalenka
31: Svitolina, Pegula

By Age Bracket:
15-19: 1
20-24: 3
25-29: 2
30-34: 2

Australian Open 2026, Men's Singles Quarter-Finals

20: Tien
22: Alcaraz
23: Musetti, Shelton
24: Sinner
26: De Minaur
28: Zverev
38: Djokovic

By Age Bracket:
20-24: 5
25-29: 2
35-39: 1
 
Australian Open 2026, Women's Singles Quarter-Finals

18: Jovic
21: Gauff
24: Anisimova, Swiatek
26: Rybakina
27: Sabalenka
31: Svitolina, Pegula

By Age Bracket:
15-19: 1
20-24: 3
25-29: 2
30-34: 2

Australian Open 2026, Men's Singles Quarter-Finals

20: Tien
22: Alcaraz
23: Musetti, Shelton
24: Sinner
26: De Minaur
28: Zverev
38: Djokovic

By Age Bracket:
20-24: 5
25-29: 2
35-39: 1
Dino is still going strong!
 
Dino is still going strong!

Yes, in an otherwise young men's field. (Two other dinos made R3, but by R4, the field had got younger). The interesting thing is that there are more absolute dinosaurs in their late 30s or even early 40s (e.g. born in the second half of the 80s) winning two rounds than there are slight dinosaurs in their early 30s (e.g. born in the first half of the 90s). This year, Djokovic, Wawrinka, and Cilic all made R3, but only two born between 1989 and 1995, inclusive, and both those two were born in late 1995 (Norrie, born in August 1995, and Van de Zandschulp, born in October 1995). An absolute desert of those born between 1989 and the end of July 1995! As you would expect - given they weren't any good to begin with. Still, bizarre that Wawrinka is still out there making R3s at almost 41 while the eight-year-younger Thiem last got that far five years ago, when he was a mere 28! Wawrinka was better than Thiem to be sure, but not that much better that you'd expect that.

On another note, while the men's field is pretty young in the later stages except for Djokovic (Zverev isn't young, but until he turns 29, he's not old), the women's field is not. 21-year-old Gauff and 18-year-old Jovic did make the QF, but both lost yesterday, so all of the final six players are 24 or older. Anisimova is the youngest, and even she is almost 24 and a half. Indeed, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that she and Swiatek will both lose tonight, in which case the semis will be Sabalenka (age 27 and eight months) v Svitolina (age 31 and four months), and Pegula (age 31 and 11 months) v Rybakina (age 26 and seven months). The bookies make Rybakina slight favorite against Swiatek and Anisimova slight favorite against Pegula, but they are both matches that could go either way.

Actually, three of the four matches today could be really good ones. Of course, Sinner will beat Shelton 6-4 6-2 6-1 and Shelton will win fewer points than that on return, but the other three matches look like they could well be exciting!
 
Australian Open 2026, Women's Singles Semi-Finals

26: Rybakina
27: Sabalenka
31: Svitolina, Pegula

By Age Bracket:
15-19: 0
20-24: 0
25-29: 2
30-34: 2

OLD women's draw, with all four players aged 26.5 or more. Exact ages as of semi-final day (Thursday January 29th):

Rybakina = 26 years, 7 months, 12 days
Sabalenka = 27 years, 8 months, 24 days
Svitolina = 31 years, 4 months, 17 days
Pegula = 31 years, 11 months, 5 days
 
Should be a fairly easy win at this point. Sinner-fans (me) should probably be more satisfied with Dino than Moose in the SF.

You give Zverev a fair chance?

Depends on what your goal for the SF is. If you want an easier workout, then I agree. But the thing with Musetti is that it's like playing Dimitrov - no matter how well he plays for part of the match, he's inevitably going to fade or get injured. So, the outcome is even less in doubt.

I give Zverev more chance than I do Djokovic, certainly. I think it is likely to be a competitive match, even if Calf wins in the end, whereas I can imagine Sinner winning something like 6-3 6-4 6-2.
 
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