Yeah I have no clue what to expect really. Their H2H on HC has been really strange. I dont think the matches prior to 2024 are very relevant, and IW is super slow.The bookies still have Sinner as favorite for tomorrow, though by a small margin - roughly 55-45.
When I was a teenager in the UK, I often stayed up late watching the US Open. But that was because of the time zone difference. On Thursday, I stayed up until 1 a.m. watching the women's semi-finals (which were great, by the way!) even though I was in the same time zone as the tournament. I think they really should stop playing so many matches at the AO and USO that go well past midnight local time.
I also wonder about the dynamics. The ones who have managed to trouble Sinner a bit in the grass/HC slams are players with a very serve based game; Shapo, FAA, Dimitrov. Very different players from Alcaraz.
The positive thing for Sinner in this match up is that Raz serve is attackable. On the other hand Raz is a great returner himself. Thats why I think 1st serve in% will be crucial here. If Sinner keeps it high he is almost impossible to break on medium HC/grass. At W Sinner kept it above 60% and that worked! Vs FAA yesterday it was way off.