Will he win a slam? Anytime in the near future?
tsitsi is not bad on clayI think he could be the next guy up on clay. Not just because he beat Rafa, but because there don't seem to be any clay courters better than him in the next gen. Dominic has a shot at 3-4 frenchies, but just is too old. At least right now, Zverev and Medvedev are barely acceptable on clay. Tsitsipas and Rublev really have a shot at dominating the clay swings for the next decade and a half. There are some who can disrupt that, such as Alcaraz, but overall, it's an interesting thought. Either way, I think he wins at least 5-6 slams.
Zverev put himself in there. What a surprise. Forgot about Ruud, but he is another one who might win a slam just because everyone seems to have forgotten that Nadal is going to retire and stop winning on clay some day.tsitsi is not bad on clay
zverev too, called himself a top-favourite with rafa few years ago
ruud will be a contender and sinner made the 1/4 in his first appearance
Lotta good points. I just can’t see Shapo ever being a better player than Rublev. A lot of Rublev’s deficiencies can improve and while he’s never gonna be Djokovic/Rafa, his movement is good enough. Shapo’s problem cannot be fixed short of a brain transplant and even then his BH will still be a problem for him. FAA has yet to blow me away and I think we’ve already seen 95% of Tsitspas’s peak...but Sinner could potentially dominate - Sinner has the highest ceiling IMO.It's easy to succumb to recency bias and say he will win a slam (even if this particular victory came in a Bo3 match), so I'll try to answer as if I didn't just see him beat Rafa on clay.
I think my answer 3 hours ago would've been (and still is) "no." In the near-term, I think his second serve (though it's improving) and lack of net game render him vulnerable against the likes of Novak, Rafa, and Medvedev, and his merely decent movement skills place a hard cap on his defense. I also don't think his forehand holds up that well to depth on quicker surfaces, and any player who can keep the ball deep will be able to neutralize his offense to some degree. Over the long run, I expect some of those weaknesses to improve (though, notably, I don't expect his movement to get much better). However, by that time I believe Felix, Sinner, Musetti, Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, Shapo, and maybe others will all be bigger threats at slams than Rublev.
The question might be whether there's a period between Rafa and Novak's retirement and the rise of those younger players where there's no clear favorite at the slams (or where Rublev is among the favorites). I don't want to say Rublev has a chance to "vulture" slams in that scenario because that term undermines the amount of work he will have had to put in to win a slam even under those conditions, but that may be his best chance.