Seles should be considered the womens GOAT
- Thread starter insideoutforehanders
- Start date
Our back-and-forth isn't about the overall result, but whether/to what extent Seles's serve and net game were improving at the time of the stabbing.
What's your take? I think she was making major steps forward on both fronts starting with the 1992 U.S. Open.
pierceforehands
Professional
Improving her serve, definitely.
Improving her volley, nada, not getting that one personally but to each their own.
In the modern game the former is probably more important than the latter anyway though.
I need to go back, rewatch the Sabatini match at the 1993 AO, and count the number of times Seles comes to net. It's more than any other match that I can remember.
Here's what the Google AI says:
In the 1993 Australian Open semifinals between Monica Seles and Gabriela Sabatini, Seles demonstrated a willingness to come to the net, a tactic that was becoming a more prominent part of her game. This was particularly evident in her aggressive groundstrokes and returns, which put pressure on Sabatini. This increased aggression, including coming to the net more frequently, was seen as a way for Seles to improve her game, especially on surfaces like grass, which benefited her play style. This change in tactics contributed to her successful hard court runs at both the 1992 U.S. Open and the 1993 Australian Open.
Not trusting AI at all, but this is my memory as well, pending a rewatch.
pierceforehands
Professional
I will probably rewatch it and maybe the final vs Graf at some point too.
Mustard
Bionic Poster
Seles in late 1993, when she was in a terrible place mentally, was in the best physical shape of her life.
Ballmachine87
Rookie
I dont doubt that, that doesn't change the fact that she had this body type, though.
Angrybirdstar
Professional
umm... TA has her at a grand total of 9 net points, with only 3 of those being active approaches and with no s&ving. at the AO '93 final Seles was 17/9/2. at the USO '95 SF and F, Seles was 14/3/0 and 9/9/0 respectively. meanwhile, in the oh-so-similar-to-grass setting of indoor carpet, at the '92 YEC Seles was 13/6/0, and at the '00 YEC Seles was 15/7/0.
for someone who had apparently solved the Graf matchup by being more aggressive and going to the net more often, who had apparently looked on the way to reaching a new level by serving better, and on top of that had apparently lost loads of her baselining confidence and movement even immediately upon returning from the stabbing... those aren't very inspiring numbers
Am I understanding you correctly that, in the 1993 Australian Open final, Seles had 17 net points, 9 active approaches, and 2 serve & volley points against Graf?
If so, that's actually more aggressive than I thought and solid evidence that Seles was serious about her net game by coming in that much on Rebound Ace against Graf in a Grand Slam final where she had to come from behind.
From those numbers and Seles playing doubles in half of her tournaments before the stabbing in 1993 (as per her plan), I can clearly see Seles having numbers like 26 net approaches, 14 active approaches, and 6 serve & volley points in three set matches against Graf going forward if she isn't stabbed. No, it was never going to be the primary focus of her game. But being able to finish off 8/9 points per set at the net and throwing in the occasional ad court serve & volley to Graf's backhand could make the difference in close matches.
pierceforehands
Professional
One thing I remember about the 93 Australian Open final was Graf did not come in enough, especialy in the 3rd set, where she had numerous points she would have won if she came to the net from good spots, but didn't, often subsequently losing the point. Seles did definitely come into net more than Graf in that match.
However Seles's biggest problems on grass were not lack of coming to the net, but this like her movement being considerably worse on grass than other courts as was not as comfortable with the footing as either a hard court or clay, not dealing with slice balls (which are very different than other courts) as easily, her two handed shots not being as condusive/adaptable to grass as surfaces with a surer bounce, not having an actual real slice, let alone a great one, a big asset on grass, herself, etc...
However Seles's biggest problems on grass were not lack of coming to the net, but this like her movement being considerably worse on grass than other courts as was not as comfortable with the footing as either a hard court or clay, not dealing with slice balls (which are very different than other courts) as easily, her two handed shots not being as condusive/adaptable to grass as surfaces with a surer bounce, not having an actual real slice, let alone a great one, a big asset on grass, herself, etc...
That's all fair, but I think that a good net game on grass would have covered up for those weaknesses. In other words, if you're taking the ball at net in the air, you don't have to worry about the bounce of the ball. And, if you're coming into net, you don't have some of the side-to-side movement on the baseline that Graf exploited in the 1992 final.
If you take 18 year-old Seles at Wimbledon, add her bigger serve, her improving net game, and a couple extra years of getting her footing on the grass, I think that 20 year-old Seles is looking pretty solid at the All England Club.
dannyslicer
Professional
RS
Bionic Poster
Bit of a strong reaction it was just a question
martinezownsclay
Hall of Fame
If that is your logic for determining GOAT than Maureen Connolly is obviously the GOAT, not Seles. Won all 9 slams she played from ages 16 to 19, 3 of the 4 were on grass, btw, imagine how many slams Seles would have won as a teenager if 3 of the 4 slams were on grass, maybe 1 or 2, LOL, but anyway. Seles would still be 2nd in that case, and probably Hingis 3rd, with Graf 3rd or 4th, and Navratilova (who did squat as a teenager) outside the top 200 somewhere. So if you are fine with that as your GOAT list so be it.
Angrybirdstar
Professional
yep, with every subsequent category being a subset of the previous category
1. Seles had 6-11 non-approach net points against all those opponents, with 8 and 0 in the Graf matches. don't know why that would become 12 (26 - 14) or why that would mean something for Seles rather than her opponent
2. Seles had 9 approaches in each of 2 Graf matches and 2 total s&vs, but that would turn into 14 and 6, when she wasn't doing that even in later years, where she was even more incentivized to make non-baselining changes to her game?
3. let's add a couple others - 12/5/0 vs Hingis at RG '98, 10/2/0 vs Graf at RG '99. meanwhile, reticent net player and stubborn tactician Graf was 11/4/0 vs Seles and then 18/17/0 vs Hingis at RG '99!
4. here's an example i found of Seles truly committing to the bit: 38/16/0. any guesses about the opponent, year, venue, or result?
if Graf was #FiguredOut why would there be close matches?
handsomeladjohnny
New User
Who let nephew on their account??
Venus would breadstick her
Venus would breadstick her
Seles specifically said after the 1992 U.S. Open final that her focus for 1993 was working on her net/serve & volley game practicing her net game and playing more doubles:
Q. Monica, you have talked about before about improving your serve and volley game. Is it — is it hard to work on your serve and volley game a lot when you are still able to win most of the tournaments without it?
MONICA SELES: I try to come in more. I am probably going to play doubles, after this tournament, pretty much every tournament I am trying to do that. But like Arantxa didn’t come in many times either, actually yesterday. It is hard to come in. Arantxa– I came in three times, I missed. Once I felt I’d missed easier shot. The other times — it is hard because they have a spin on it; they go very fast. It is different at practice and only thing that the serve and volley game is– you don’t have– you cannot go into the match and — it is different during practice because there is no pressure, but a match there is pressure. You go into a net. It is– you think what am I doing here; I am supposed to stay back because for seven, eight years, you have been playing at the backcourt. But I am volleying extremely well in practice; that is why I might play a little more doubles. Hopefully, that is going to help me. I don’t want to put that pressure on myself because the more I am thinking I got to go in; I got to go in, the more I kind of freeze up when I get there. It is like, “what am I doing here; I am not supposed to be here.” You can’t have that thought. So–
The 1993 Australian Open final was a good first step, but it was before she had played even one doubles match in 1993. That's where I see he upping her net approaches in the way I wrote.
I agree with every word of this, but it also opens up a potential weakness - that pesky 'half volley'. If you don't move well, and if you are tall, and are not completely comfortable with your balance and instinctive with your court positioning, you will be seeing a lot of dying tennis balls you have to scoop on the half volley. It one of the toughest shots in the sport to own and very few baseliners really own one, especially ones with two handed backhands. I know if I were a cagey grass courter, I would be taking the pace off, chipping a lot of my returns right down at Monica's feet or at a severe angle so she has to stretch and dig a trench. Not a lot of players in Monica's era really had effective slices, but Martina, Steffi, Zina, Lori, Jana and Helena definitely did.
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Angrybirdstar
Professional
can you explain why you're valuing mere talk over demonstrated (lack of) action, or why you've never made any reference to a hypothetical increase in concurrent doubles play having anything other than a strictly positive effect on Seles' singles play? in the nearly 3 months between AO and Hamburg, why was Seles only playing 2 indoors singles tournaments and no doubles?
Seles played doubles in half of her singles tournaments in 1993 after only playing doubles once in 1992. Specifically, she played singles and doubles in Chicago and Paris in 1993. The reason Seles only played Chicago and Paris in between the Australian Open and Hamburg was that she got a severe case of the flu in Paris, with Hamburg being her comeback tournament (where, of course, she was stabbed).
I'm not an increase in doubles play would strictly have a positive effect on Seles's doubles play. OTOH, I do think there was pretty minimal downside. From all the evidence, Seles was never going to be a great doubles player, so we're probably only talking about a few doubles matches per tournament, giving her extra practice on her net game, but without too much wear and tear that would take away from singles.
insideoutforehanders
Hall of Fame
I was surprised when Seles and Novotna played doubles together awhile in I think 98 or 99 as I always thought they hated each other. I guess I had been wrong about that.
Mustard
Bionic Poster
Why did you think that? Because Novotna was a nemesis for Seles in 1996, with wins at the French Open and Atlanta Olympics?
Seles had many doubles partners in the late 1990s. There was Novotna, Kournikova, Zvereva and Mary Joe Fernandez.
insideoutforehanders
Hall of Fame
Jana's obnoxious body language in some of their matches, like YEC 92 and Olympics 96. And since she blamed her loss to Seles in the 91 Australian Open final on injury.
Also since Betsy Bagelsen is Monica's best friend and was super negative on Jana during commentary, for instance accusing her of choking at the end of Wimbledon 97 final and 98 US Open semi vs Hingis.
insideoutforehanders
Hall of Fame
Part of that was Jana did have an actual injury and she started feeling it more as the long match went on. It was just inappropriate to admit it in a press conference and not something she would normally do IMO.
Fernandez only had 2 real chances to win a slam ever, Australia 91 and French Open 93, and missed both.
EvonneFedererBorgster
Semi-Pro
Betsy Bagelsen did tv commentary? What network or station?
Mustard
Bionic Poster
ESPN, I think.
I'd say she had a shot at the 1990 U.S. Open as well. She really outplayed Sabatini in the first two sets of their SF but failed to convert on 7/9 break points in the first set and lost it, 7-5. That could have been a straight set win for Fernandez. And then, Graf was bad in the final, worse than she was in the 1993 French final.
insideoutforehanders
Hall of Fame
I still think there is just no way she was beating Graf in the final there, but it is pure speculation obviously.
Oh, I agree. But if we're classifying the 1993 French final as a real shot, then I'd also say a hypothetical 1990 U.S. Open final was a real shot.
insideoutforehanders
Hall of Fame
So 3. More than I would have imagined for her to be honest.
I think I saw a stat saying she's the only Slamless WTA player in the Open Era with 25+ wins at each Major, with Mary Joe actually having 31+ wins at each Major. She was solid as hell, just couldn't quite get over the hump.
insideoutforehanders
Hall of Fame
She was also Sabatini's career nightmare in slams.
Pheasant
G.O.A.T.
I read that Seles gained 20 lbs during her 2-year layoff after that horrific stabbing. She also said that she gained another 17 lbs during the following 2 years. That is absolutely insane that she remained in the top-50 after gaining that much weight. But where the weight gain really appeared to affect her was in the 3rd set of matches.
3 set matches
1991-1993
24-5, .828 overall
12- 0, 1.000 in slams
1995-1997
15-10, .667 overall
4-5, .444 in slams
1998-2000
23-13, .639 overall
6-5, .545 in slams
Even without weight gain, you cannot afford to miss 2 consecutive years during your prime(she actually missed 28 consecutive months). That stabbing incident is the biggest black mark in the history of the sport. It really would have been interesting to see what she could have done. Now, the world will never know.
3 set matches
1991-1993
24-5, .828 overall
12- 0, 1.000 in slams
1995-1997
15-10, .667 overall
4-5, .444 in slams
1998-2000
23-13, .639 overall
6-5, .545 in slams
Even without weight gain, you cannot afford to miss 2 consecutive years during your prime(she actually missed 28 consecutive months). That stabbing incident is the biggest black mark in the history of the sport. It really would have been interesting to see what she could have done. Now, the world will never know.
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PDJ
G.O.A.T.
True. Davenport took a while to get to fit. Capriati et al.
pierceforehands
Professional
Not really since we actually saw her come close in the final itself at the 93 French, just like at the 91 Australian we saw her come even closer to beating Seles in the semis, when in fact she should have when she literally had a match point she had 3 chances to either go for a winner or come to the net and likely win the point/match but instead played cautious and wound up making an unforced error instead, preceding to lose the match from there. When she would have had a badly injured Novotna in her maiden slam final, which is probably a virtual walkover. At the 90 US Open we never saw her play Graf, so there is nothing parallel to these 2 events even comparable to go by. We do know she is a career 0-14 vs Graf. It also does not matter that she came close to beating Graf at the 93 French since:
a)their entire head to head history, shows that is an aberration, and strongly against the norm. This is the biggest one of all, Fernandez nearly beating Graf at the 93 French is such an outlier in their rivalry, it does not mean mean she has a fairly good chance even against a worse Graf another time at all. Graf in Miami 92 and Australia 90 both was playing much worse than both those events, and still beat Fernandez in straight sets per usual, just as one example.
b)Fernandez was playing much better at the 93 French than the 90 US Open. She was playing very well at the 90 US Open, but nothing that indicates anything special, she had a cakewalk draw to the semis with no even fairly good wins, and was always a super tough opponent for Sabatini in slams. At the 93 French she was playing by far some of the best tennis of her life from the mid point of her quarter final match vs Sanchez onwards.
So even if you feel Graf was worse at the 90 US Open than the 93 French, which I don't agree with, since except for the final where she inexplicably played like garbage out of nowhere she was otherwise in pretty strong form at the 90 US Open, vastly stronger than the majority of her 90 form which for her had been quite subpar. It does not indicate Fernandez's chances are decent, or even close to what they wound up being at the 93 French.
I forgot to mention the 93 French was on a slower surface where Fernandez is much more of a contender. Indicated by her results as her 3 slam finals are all at the Australian and French, 0 finals at Wimbledon, US Open, Year End Championships on the faster courts. Plus her near title at the 91 Australian, despite technically not reaching the final. Another reason this would be a faulty assumption, she was never considered an actual contender to win a Wimbledon or US Open, she was a possible contender to win an Australian or French throughout her career.
This paragraph intrigues, especially this : "Another reason this would be a faulty assumption, she was never considered an actual contender to win a Wimbledon or US Open, she was a possible contender to win an Australian or French throughout her career."
What is the thinking here? By this point the depth of draws should be almost identical at the Aussie & the Open. The surface is of similar speed, and the ball bounces high enough. If anything the Aussie might be better attended by top players because everyone is refreshed and healthy from season end, the SGS is in play. Are you thinking that the controversy/ myth about Rebound Ace being more 'sticky' in the heat impacted draws ... evidence points to it being no worse than other hard courts. The Margaret Court Arena controversy cannot have impacted Fernandez, because it happened in 2017.
I looked at Fernandez record to see what I imagined her best surface was. From what I see, its anything that is not grass.
WTA career finals
Singles: 16 (7–9)
| Hard (2–4) |
| Grass (0–1) |
| Clay (2–2) |
| Carpet (3–2) |
[th]
Finals by surface
[/th]pierceforehands
Professional
And Fernandez's one and only grass final was losing 0 and 2 to that all time grass demon Monica Seles. Yeah Fernandez was hopeless on grass, and that she had any decent showings at Wimbledon shows the lack of depth on grass in that baseline heavy era.
Verbal Volley
Rookie
I respectfully disagree. Monica would have never won Wimbledon. The bounce was too low, the court speed too fast and the surface too unreliable in terms of the bounce to allow her to do so. She would have won numerous titles at Roland Garros and many in Oz as well, but was susceptible on the courts at the US Open, as evidenced by her loss to Linda Ferando 1/6,6/1/7/6 in the 3rd round in 1990.
BorgTheGOAT
G.O.A.T.
I mean when discussing Court's GOAT case, many people are already taking her mediocre (for a GOAT candidate) Wimbledon resume of three titles as a negative against her, (correctly) pointing out, that Wimbledon during her times was ahead of the other slams. Court however has the slam record and next to every other statistical record.
Even without the stabbing, I cannot see how Monica would have gotten to 24 slams, even if she had gotten to 20 slams (which I consider a big if to be honest), then there is no way, she would have won more than 1 or (if all stars align) 2 Wimbledon titles. This would never have been enough to consider her GOAT, a resume with only one Wimbledon title would at the every least require the slam record to make up for it which I cannot for the life of me see Monica taking (also due to the fact again, that Wimbledon would basically be out so she would have to win the other three slams even more often).
Even without the stabbing, I cannot see how Monica would have gotten to 24 slams, even if she had gotten to 20 slams (which I consider a big if to be honest), then there is no way, she would have won more than 1 or (if all stars align) 2 Wimbledon titles. This would never have been enough to consider her GOAT, a resume with only one Wimbledon title would at the every least require the slam record to make up for it which I cannot for the life of me see Monica taking (also due to the fact again, that Wimbledon would basically be out so she would have to win the other three slams even more often).
Pheasant
G.O.A.T.
Best case scenario, Seles gets to 19 slam titles, which puts her #3 on most people’s goat list(would be #4 on mine, since I rate Martina at #1).
Side note: I am seeing a much better case for Court being #1 lately. She checks virtually all of the boxes. The Open Era CYGS is big; especially when you consider that we was getting old at that time(for that era). But I think that winning 3 slams the year after having a baby is perhaps even more ridiculous. Nobody else did more than 1 in a calendar year after having a baby.
I have Seles at #6.
Side note: I am seeing a much better case for Court being #1 lately. She checks virtually all of the boxes. The Open Era CYGS is big; especially when you consider that we was getting old at that time(for that era). But I think that winning 3 slams the year after having a baby is perhaps even more ridiculous. Nobody else did more than 1 in a calendar year after having a baby.
I have Seles at #6.
BorgTheGOAT
G.O.A.T.
You also have to keep in mind, that Court did not only win a CYGS, 6 in a row and overall 11 slams in the OE (despite breaks), but also has the highest winning % of ALL women in the OE. And this is, even with many years of her prime being outside of the OE.
The bounce being low and fast wsan't really a problem for her. Seles crushed the competition on carpet, including winning the WTA Finals three straight years for 1990-1992. The inconsistent bounce was the bigger problem, but it was one she was addressing through things like working on her net game at the time of the stabbing.
I have Seles getting 19-20 Majors if she's not stabbed, but I don't think that was her best case scenario (and I also could see her well below my 19-20 estimate in some scenarios even without the stabbing).
For me, Monica's best case scenario is that (1) she continues dominating from 1993-1994; and (2) Steffi is so discouraged by this that she doesn't make the big push she made after her injuries in 1994 and have the revitalized 1995-1996 she had in our current timeline. In that scenario, I could see Seles adding some more Majors above my estimate.
BorgTheGOAT
G.O.A.T.
For your best-case scenario I have still the following Qs:
1) How many Wimbledons would you see here winning in that best-case without Steffi?
2) How would you see her dealing with Hingis given her atrocious H2H of 5-15, which was ofc not prime vs prime but still indicated a difficult match-up?
3) How many overall slams would you see for her in that best-case scenario? 22, 24, more?
1) I see two maximum Wimbledons for Seles.
2) In my best case scenario, Seles has better movement than she did post-stabbing and keeps developing her burgeoning net game. I still think Hingis is a tough matchup for her, but it's more of a 50/50 deal than 5-15.
3) Yeah, I think somewhere between 22-24 for best case scenario.
PDJ
G.O.A.T.
I think Seles would have benefited from the Wimbledon grass of today. However, I think Chris Evert would benefit more - those 7 Runner Up and semi final losses would look a lot different and her count goes up which I don't think Seles gets close to. Much like it kinda panned out, with Evert on twice as many majors as Seles.
BorgTheGOAT
G.O.A.T.
Lets say 23 slams with 2 Wimbledons I would still think it will be tough for a GOAT case. Wimbledon above other slams was still prominent during here time, and if we assume Graf to be out, that will also raise questions about Seles' overall competition. With Graf it already does due to the stabbing and unlike Graf, Monica did not really have to fight and dethrone older but still good Nav and Evert.
I think even in your best-case scenario, few would put her above Serena, at least not if she does not completely dominate other achievements (YEC, YE1, weeks at No.1) which she likely would without the stabbing.
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