2016 USTA League Nationals are going on in full force, and unfortunately that means a few cases of questionable self-rated players comes up...
computerratings.blogspot.com
See link - this has been analyzed by
@schmke - he found that most self-rates rate themselves correctly, in that something close to 70% of self-rates who get their first computer rating get their S rating confirmed with a C.
You could argue that ~30% is a pretty big error rate, though there's probably a big chunk of those who were legitimately close to the border and the S rate was not unreasonable.
Given that the bump rate among C-rated players is around 5 to 8% overall, 30% among S-rated is definitely a significant difference. I did a similar style of analysis using TennisRecord dynamic NTRPs, and only within my own state (Connecticut). Obviously those aren’t official, but you can get a more granular picture of the rating distribution within a level versus just who was bumped up and down.
Although TR records aren’t official and may not mirror USTA’s dNTRP perfectly, the C-rated players do tend to follow a bell curve within their own levels as expected. As
@schmke noted, the ladies S-rated players skew low, with a bell curve centered lower than the C-rated curve and more of a tail in the bump down range. Also most of the female S-rated players are 2.5 and 3.0s.
On the male side, there are a surprisingly large number of 3.5 and 4.0 self-rates, with almost 50% of the 3.5 guys being self rated last year. The 2.5 level basically doesn’t exist in our area. The S-rated men, at 3.0 and 3.5 particularly, barely follow a bell curve; it’s more like a uniform (flat) distribution with as many players in the bump up & down areas as the center of the level.
This fits my observation of the dynamics at our club. Women generally want to have a high rating next to their name and many of the S-rated players are legitimate beginners who took up tennis as adults. On the mens’ side, many of the self-rates are guys who used to play tennis and are coming back to it, or athletes from team sports transitioning into tennis. Guys, especially older guys, who self rate using the general descriptions of the NTRP levels tend to overrate themselves. Young guys, athletes, and players that get recruited to USTA by team captains in general tend to be ringers.
Unlike with the ladies, there really is no league / level for male newbies in our area; if a guy is new to tennis and not already a solid athlete in some other sport, he should expect to practice and take lessons or clinics for at least a year or two before trying USTA even at the 3.0 level.