Shanghai Final Federer v Nadal

Who wins?

  • Nadal in 2

    Votes: 22 15.2%
  • Federer in 2

    Votes: 61 42.1%
  • Nadal In 3

    Votes: 31 21.4%
  • Federer in 3

    Votes: 31 21.4%

  • Total voters
    145
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icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Mini stats before the final (full stats also available):
2HnCSS.png

i just realized where is our stat guru anyway falstaff?
 

YellowFedBetter

Hall of Fame
Dat BH volley...
I don’t think that’s what cost him. To me it showed his guts more than he recovered from that and another frustrating TB loss in the next set to do what he did. I wouldn’t take that shot back, I would have Andy get some 2nd serves on his BP’s In the 5th set.

Funny thing is I actually have a harder time watching the ‘04 Final for some reason.
 

metsman

Talk Tennis Guru
Ow0kL_f-maxage-0.gif




But what happens now? Meles goes against Tignor.

Some kind of unsolvable paradox? The universe will implode and there will be no match at all?
I think it will proceed to 6-6 in the 3rd set tiebreak upon which they will embark upon a point that will never end or a point that will never be completed because every time it does, Hawkeye confirms that it has to restart.
 
D

Deleted member 716271

Guest
I don’t think that’s what cost him. To me it showed his guts more than he recovered from that and another frustrating TB loss in the next set to do what he did. I wouldn’t take that shot back, I would have Andy get some 2nd serves on his BP’s In the 5th set.

Funny thing is I actually have a harder time watching the ‘04 Final for some reason.

Roddick played his best in 04 and there wasnt this huge superiority established yet. So I understand how it would have been very disappointing at the time after the 1st set and most of the 2nd and how the matchup went from that point forward.

As far as the missed volley in 09, gotta disagree with you there. It might not seem as significant because it wasn't in the final few games and Roddick did recover nicely but if he wins that point by making a club hacker difficulty level volley, it is 2 sets to 0.
 

YellowFedBetter

Hall of Fame
Roddick played his best in 04 and there wasnt this huge superiority established yet. So I understand how it would have been very disappointing at the time after the 1st set and most of the 2nd and how the matchup went from that point forward.

As far as the missed volley in 09, gotta disagree with you there. It might not seem as significant because it wasn't in the final few games and Roddick did recover nicely but if he wins that point by making a club hacker difficulty level volley, it is 2 sets to 0.
No problem with that. But I’ve never thought that was an “easy” volley though, nothing under that kind of pressure is. But he fought back and had his chances, oh well. He showed more to me in that kind of defeat than an more straightforward victory would have.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
Could very well be. I have some trouble in thinking that Nadal can get mentally and physically worn out though. I understand that today vs. Cilic, Nadal had moments he got away mentally form the match. But he did that safely, and went back in control when needed.
But with Federer, Nadal will be fully concentrated and totally intense throughout the match. I am pretty sure of that. If Fed wins, it will be because he will deserve it, and not because Rafa goes down in intensity.
I've seen Nadal bamboozled at times against Federer where he looks completely powerless. WTF 2010 finals in the 3rd set, Hamburg 2007, etc. Who knows? I just feel Nadal has pushed his luck at his age to be playing this many matches and having to go to the well quite a few times. Federer looks fresher and should handle Nadal I think.
 
What do you like so much about Federer's tennis; I don't find it exciting at all. I'm never glued to the TV when he's playing.
Well, you don't speak for general public. Here in Shanghai, if Federer is out, it would mean absolute disaster for the organizer and touts who resell tickets.
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
Lol, in a way you'd have to feel a bit sorry for Nadal if he loses yet again to Federer. I mean he's played a full season so far and also played Beijing last week compared to Roger who picks and chooses his tournaments these days(understandable given his age but still). It's kinda like someone working all the hours God sends and getting no pay increase from his boss and another guy doing only part time hours and reaping all the rewards. You do wonder if Nadal would be thinking along those lines should Fed get the better of him again tomorrow.
do you think Federer felt that way the multiple times Nadal beat him at least 3 times in a row?

Nadal handled 7 defeats by Djokovic and bounced back twice.

of course he wants, and in my estimation will most likely get, a win over Federer tomorrow. but, thats more like gravy after an already outstanding year.
 
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marc45

G.O.A.T.
Just wondering how many of you guys living in America will be watching this match live? It starts at 4.30 in the morning where y'all are! :eek:

younger days, yes...baseball playoffs tonight, then kill 3 and a half hours after Saturday Night Live

now, sleep & DVR time on Tennis Channel :)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@abmk
Is this match unprecedented for Fedal on hard courts? 2017 Auz is the closest hard court encounter I can find. Fed was down and out in 2013, so that leaves 2010 ATP final:
47/2010 F ATP World Tour Finals Hard Roger Federer Rafael Nadal 6-3 3-6 6-1 1.66 - 2.40

Now Nadal is favored for this one.:eek:
 

Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
How does this make sense... How does Nadal have less 1st serve returns points won AND less 2nd serve return points won, but in total he's won more return points? Can you explain that please. And also where are the full stats? :)

I double checked. Those numbers are correct.

That's possible because those stats depend on how their opponents served in each match as well (how many 1st serve points, how many 2nd serve points). Those stats in the mini version are the average. It's not the case with the serve stats.

Here, see it for yourself (pardon the rainbow highlighting :p):

lLuL0I.png


Edit: fixed the image resolution
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
I double checked. Those numbers are correct.

That's possible because those stats depend on how their opponents served in each match as well (how many 1st serve points, how many 2nd serve points). Those stats in the mini version are the average. It's not the case with the serve stats.

Here, see it for yourself (pardon the rainbow highlighting :p):
esx7sE.png
I'm going to try pulling for both of them from tennis abstract right now. Pretty sure the guy there is Fednatic and he seems to have everything up to date for this match rather than after tournament..... nope the matches are in, but can't pull up totals for such a short period and they wouldn't have return broken out either.:mad:

I see a problem with your individual 2nd serve match numbers versus tennis abstract:
http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal&f=Acx2017100220171009qqB0r1

All of Nadal's matches are above 50% on 2nd return at both Shanghai and Beijing.:eek:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Rafa has been very good so far, probably good enough to go in as betting favourite and Meles' pick. Unfortunately Tignor has picked Federer, so not the best news for Fed fans there.

On these courts Fed does possess that ability to make Rafa play below his best by pushing him back. He needs to be patient but effective with his shots tomorrow if he wants to bag the title.
Got a good, good looksie at early going with Fed v God Potro and I'm pretty impressed.

"Finally we have a dream match this year. The Fedal encounter earlier this year at Auz was delightful, but now both look fully poised to bring an even higher level in the Shanghai final.
sbowing_100-106.gif
Here we have it all; Nadal at his best on hard courts against the best form Fed has had since his peak and with the backhand that took the match away from Nadal down under.:cool: I'll be tuning in live for this one at 430 a.m. my time; wouldn't miss it for the world.
loveshower.gif
"

I honestly don't know who will win this and it's killing me in leagues.
ohnoes.gif
 

Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
I'm going to try pulling for both of them from tennis abstract right now. Pretty sure the guy there is Fednatic and he seems to have everything up to date for this match rather than after tournament..... nope the matches are in, but can't pull up totals for such a short period and they wouldn't have return broken out either.:mad:

I see a problem with your individual 2nd serve match numbers versus tennis abstract:
http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal&f=Acx2017100220171009qqB0r1

All of Nadal's matches are above 50% on 2nd return at both Shanghai and Beijing.:eek:

Those numbers I pulled from flashscore which for basic, pure number stats, are more reliable than the ATP website in my experience (for example, I have found quite some mistakes in their graphic stats shown after each match). ATP haven't even updated anything yet as usual.

Rafa isn't returning that well at Shanghai. For example, in the QF vs Dimitrov, Dimitrov won 50% of 2nd serve points (12/24), but Rafa only won 33% on 2nd serve return (8/24), not 50%, because Dimitrov made 4 DF's.

I think the guy on tennis abstract might have ignored the DF stats, hence the inflated 2nd serve return numbers. It's not wrong. It's right actually. Yes you win 2nd serve points when your opponent doubtfaults. But it doesn't tell whole story IMO. So I'll still stick with these. :)
 

Federev

G.O.A.T.
Man...

Hate to be a coward (maybe)...

But - apart from all the stats and hype (again) - I really feel like its simpler:

Nads has the fierce animal thing going on full steam and Fed is just not quite there in terms of health, energy, and power like we saw for the first half of the year.

It's like - Fed has slipped a bit and Nads has obviously gone up a lot since Miami.

If anythign Fed's Delpo match and less rest will wear him down that much more.

If I had to bet I would say Rafa in two very very clear cut sets, like 6-4, 6-4.

I hope I am wrong of course, but I'm all about lowering my expectations - as if that ever helped.

But then again, nothing will change AO'17 Set 5, so i won't be that bummed.
 

ADuck

Legend
I double checked. Those numbers are correct.

That's possible because those stats depend on how their opponents served in each match as well (how many 1st serve points, how many 2nd serve points). Those stats in the mini version are the average. It's not the case with the serve stats.

Here, see it for yourself (pardon the rainbow highlighting :p):
ivFaNl.png
Ohhh, I get it. It's because you averaged the percentages right? Why not add up the fractions of each individual match instead? Might be a better means of determining who's better on return.
 

ADuck

Legend
Ohhh, I get it. It's because you averaged the percentages right? Why not add up the fractions of each individual match instead? Might be a better means of determining who's better on return.
Actually idk.. All's i know is it would be interesting to see it on a point-by-point basis as well as a match-by-match basis.
 

Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
Ohhh, I get it. It's because you averaged the percentages right? Why not add up the fractions of each individual match instead? Might be a better means of determining who's better on return.

Yes I know, there's always a problem with % stats. They can look deceivingly better or worse than they actually are, but not that much. That's why I called it "mini version", you know, just a quick look to have the most general idea; and because still the average numbers don't lie.

But by looking at the numbers on each match I think it's pretty clear now how the average stats turn out like that.
 
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Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
Voted for Nadal in 3 but will be equally happy with either winning.

Nadal is going to leave blood on the court trying to win this after going down three times in a row earlier this year.
 

Pyrolysis

Rookie
It's indoors too, if Fed plays as well as he did in their last two, Nads is gonna get btfo

But I think this one might be closer. Three sets
 

ForumMember

Hall of Fame
Forecast tells high probablity of rain, Indoors is more likely.
Still don't understand how come bookies putting money on Nadal to win this. For me it's Federer's surface so he is huge favorite to win this one. Fed in two. Easily. Nadal is gassed with two much tennis.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
I think Federer could be in a wheelchair with both arms amputated and he'll still lead in the polls no matter who it is that he's slated to play. LMAO!!!
 

clayqueen

Talk Tennis Guru
Please! Your arse is crazy-glued to every Federer match, every Federer article, and all things Federer. For somebody who claims she doesn't like Federer's game and constantly maligns Federer on this board, you certainly seem to be fixated on the guy. :rolleyes: I don't watch players I don't like.
Lol. I'm not glued to Federer's matches for a start and unlike you, I do watch players I don't like because I'm a fan of tennis. It's not that I don't like Federer I just can't see what the fuss is about and neither you nor anyone can make me.
 

roysid

Legend
It's pretty even. Fed looked more fresh but he had the longer SF and don't forget that was 4 hours later than Nadal's. So he has less time to receover
 
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