Shapo ROS

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
#1
Shapo's ROS is pretty dismal, especially against 1st serves, considering the rest of his game.

He often goes for a big return, only to result in a shank/mishit. In 2018 he only won 27% of 1st serve returns.

Compare to another 1HBH like Wawrinka who has career 30.1% 1st serve return, or Fed who has 32.6% 1st serve return.

Would Shapo be better off developing a good chip/slice ROS like Wawrinka usually uses (and Fed often uses) to return 1st serves?

Discuss.

 
#5
He’s at a huge disadvantage returning with a one-handed BH especially when rightys (the vast majority on tour) serve to his BH on the deuce court, every righty’s stronger side. He desperately needs a chip return to somewhat ameliorate for the on-handed return handicap.
 
Last edited:

bjk

Hall of Fame
#6
He can't admit there are any weaknesses in his game so he's going to shank backhands until it works. There is no backup plan.
 
#8
What are you expecting from a player that has once made a slam 4th round two years ago?

It is what it is. He is mediocre.
He has not even been 2 years on the Tour and he already has 3 Masters 1000 semifinals. I think a lot of players would like to be mediocre like him. Anyway your comment will be even more pathetic in 10 years when he will have win several slams.
 

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
#9
He has not even been 2 years on the Tour and he already has 3 Masters 1000 semifinals. I think a lot of players would like to be mediocre like him. Anyway your comment will be even more pathetic in 10 years when he will have win several slams.
You think 27% ROS for 1st serve is not mediocre? His 27.0% returns against 1st serves were 50th in the ATP for 2018, just .1% better than Stevie Johnson :)

If Shapo continues at 27% for 1st serve returns during his career, it is doubtful that he will win many slams, as his serve isn't big enough to compensate for not being a great returner...
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#11
Shapo's ROS is pretty dismal, especially against 1st serves, considering the rest of his game.

He often goes for a big return, only to result in a shank/mishit. In 2018 he only won 27% of 1st serve returns.

Compare to another 1HBH like Wawrinka who has career 30.1% 1st serve return, or Fed who has 32.6% 1st serve return.

Would Shapo be better off developing a good chip/slice ROS like Wawrinka usually uses (and Fed often uses) to return 1st serves?

Discuss.

Your data is a failure. 2nd half of 2018 Shapo won 30.0% of first return points and 36.6% of return points (barely passable level). If we go to IW/Miami Shapo is at 37.8% return points won. He's won on first return in these matches; 29.0%, 35.6%, 29.9%, 36.4%, 35.7%, 31.8%(Tsits), and 37.5%

The problem you've identified is no longer a problem. Denis is around 34% first return points won the last month which is pretty much GOAT level.;)
 

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
#13
Your data is a failure. 2nd half of 2018 Shapo won 30.0% of first return points and 36.6% of return points (barely passable level). If we go to IW/Miami Shapo is at 37.8% return points won. He's won on first return in these matches; 29.0%, 35.6%, 29.9%, 36.4%, 35.7%, 31.8%(Tsits), and 37.5%

The problem you've identified is no longer a problem. Denis is around 34% first return points won the last month which is pretty much GOAT level.;)
OK, so sounds like last few matches Shapo is returning 1st serves better than Fed's lifetime average :)
 
#14
He’s a ball basher. We need FAA to save tennis.
FAA isn't? Felix is more consistent, but he still seems like a basher to me.

Shap's ability to construct easy points on serve is the most impressive thing to me from any player right now. I'm honestly not sure if anyone else other than Fed does this better (but I don't watch as much ATP anymore) Return and shot selection at times needs work though..
 

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
#15
The problem you've identified is no longer a problem except against great servers like Fed who can target Denis' BH.
Fixed it for ya @Meles :)

Fed only hit 2 aces (kind of a slow night for him), yet Denis only wins 2 out of the remaining 20 non-ace 1st serve points??? That seems like a problem to me...
 

3lite

Professional
#24
Lefties should never utilize a one-handed backhand as it simply goes against their very nature.

It's almost as bad as wearing a watch on your right hand.
 

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
#26
Shapo out-returned by Struff today on clay. 3 breaks vs. 6 breaks.

Only 4 aces in 3 sets for Struff, so Shapo got his racket on plenty of serves.

Not a good sign for Shapo's chances in the upcoming clay season!
 
#29
I believe the general strategy is

1) Hit hard

2) Hit harder
Strategy is really the issue, more than any technical chink. The guy has obvious talent, but doesn't seem capable of the variations required at the highest level, especially on an off day.

Watched him lose in 3 sets to Struff in Monte Carlo yesterday. Shapovalov was having a poor day (served 10 double faults, I think), but kept on trying to bash the ball past his opponent.

2 issues there:
1) He played on clay exactly like on hard court, and the ball kept coming back
2) He didn't adjust his strategy to his capabilities of the day

This kid desperately need a change in his coaching set up. FAA is not as flash as Sapovalov technically, but he is miles ahead in strategy.

Mind you, I then watched Rublev lose to Fognini in 3 sets, and it was exactly the same, trying to play a hard court game on clay. Rublev is the most brainless ball basher on tour.
 

IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
#30
Strategy is really the issue, more than any technical chink. The guy has obvious talent, but doesn't seem capable of the variations required at the highest level, especially on an off day.

Watched him lose in 3 sets to Struff in Monte Carlo yesterday. Shapovalov was having a poor day (served 10 double faults, I think), but kept on trying to bash the ball past his opponent.

2 issues there:
1) He played on clay exactly like on hard court, and the ball kept coming back
2) He didn't adjust his strategy to his capabilities of the day
Yeah, I would think that against a big guy such as Struff, Shapo would dial it back a bit, play higher-percentage tennis, and try to move Struff around the court more before trying for a winner.

Instead, Shapo was taking huge cuts from the get-go.

He seems to have no dialed-back setting? I'm thinking Federer against Isner or Anderson - Fed knows how to dial it back and play high-percentage tennis when called for. If Shapo had a similar strategy, I think he would be beating up on guys like Struff...
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#35
two words:

sample. size.

cherry picks like that often lead to conclusions that aren't representative.
Well he's only really shown this kind of level in Miami and so now we wait until July and must read the tea leaves for hard based on how clay and grass go.:D

I must say based on Miami's play I was quite disappointed in Shapo in his loss to Struff at Monte Carlo. He was way too aggressive and reckless in the 2nd and 3rd set. All he had to do was hit hard enough (exactly what he was doing in Miami), but consistent and Struff would have given him plenty of errors. Shapo was even winning rallies over 9 shots by a pretty wide margin for the match. Somehow the mentally tough player from the end of Miami (let's forget that first set with Fed;)) has not shown up on clay. I was thinking about his return stats in the match, but his penchant for too many errors on clay in Monte Carlo just didn't make it worth even considering.

We wait and wonder about his return game and of course grass is too few matches (and don't suspect Shapo will be a threat on grass.) We'll see what he does on clay and he will be in a very, very impressive Barcelona field next week.:love:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#36
Yeah, I would think that against a big guy such as Struff, Shapo would dial it back a bit, play higher-percentage tennis, and try to move Struff around the court more before trying for a winner.

Instead, Shapo was taking huge cuts from the get-go.

He seems to have no dialed-back setting? I'm thinking Federer against Isner or Anderson - Fed knows how to dial it back and play high-percentage tennis when called for. If Shapo had a similar strategy, I think he would be beating up on guys like Struff...
The amazing thing is he was doing this in has last couple matches in Miami (Tsits and Rublev). Amazed he didn't bring the new game to clay.:mad:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#37
Strategy is really the issue, more than any technical chink. The guy has obvious talent, but doesn't seem capable of the variations required at the highest level, especially on an off day.

Watched him lose in 3 sets to Struff in Monte Carlo yesterday. Shapovalov was having a poor day (served 10 double faults, I think), but kept on trying to bash the ball past his opponent.

2 issues there:
1) He played on clay exactly like on hard court, and the ball kept coming back
2) He didn't adjust his strategy to his capabilities of the day

This kid desperately need a change in his coaching set up. FAA is not as flash as Sapovalov technically, but he is miles ahead in strategy.

Mind you, I then watched Rublev lose to Fognini in 3 sets, and it was exactly the same, trying to play a hard court game on clay. Rublev is the most brainless ball basher on tour.
I think you're a tad hard on Rublev who really hasn't quite recovered from his fractured spine one year ago in Monte Carlo. Fognini played quite well to take the match. Agree Rublev looked like his hard court game, but he has to bash as his movement is not the best. Frankly Fognini over powered him at the end of their match; quite a number of great winners. Rublev still has not gotten his ground game of early 2018 back all the way so he's got a lot of upside on clay. He nearly had Fognini 5-1 in the 2nd, but then the tide started to turn.:sick:

Your analysis of Shapo is quite fair, but he was a rock of consistency in the latter stages of his match with Rublev and Tsitsipas in Miami. The Tsits win was stunning because Stefanos looked to be playing betterer than when he beat Fed at Auz Open, but Shapo took him down.o_O Someone needs to kick Shapo's ass for what he did in the Struff match especially given his smart consistency in the Miami matches.:sneaky:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
#38
Fixed it for ya @Meles :)

Fed only hit 2 aces (kind of a slow night for him), yet Denis only wins 2 out of the remaining 20 non-ace 1st serve points??? That seems like a problem to me...
Shapo was choking massively the whole first set so don't think we can put a lot of stock in the results whatsoever. 2nd set was credible. Fed pretty solid serve game these days; its his return that's made him weakerer over the last year (2nd return stats on hard court were train wreck last half of 2018.) Not many have a better serve game overall than Fed.

I've seen Shapo really deliver here of late, so he's going to just fine after the Struff bump in the road. Struff is a great addition to the top 40 and was expecting this to be a tough one and Struffy sure delivered. He particularly made Shapo look like a fool in their net to net exchanges and general net play.
 
Top