Yeah, the stated idea behind the Game zONe is that if you play someone within your GZ, the probability of the match is 35-65% either way. So presumably if you played an 18.5 you'd have a 35% chance of winning and if you played a 22.0, 65%. In this case you played a 16.0 and your GZ's don't even overlap. Now, if the roughly +/-2 GZ is good for +/-15%, one might extrapolate that the 4.2 point difference should be good for about -35%, so you were supposed to have a 15% chance of winning. Given the score and your experience, yeah, that seems a little low.
Interesting, thanks! Maybe the WTN "prediction" was not quite as horrible as I thought. A 15% chance of winning is worth showing up for. I'm curious what would be the equivalent 35-65% match win probability range for dNTRP? My opponent is 0.24 higher than me according to TR - would he be in my Game zONe if they had the equivalent version of that?