Shocking tournament GOAT pts reveal

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
UTS manages yearly records for all players and its useful to do year over year comparison on overall achievement of players.
Now if you agree with their GOAT points scenario is totally up to you and I will not get into it but it seems very fair to modern tennis post 2000. Where masters have half the weight of slams and final has half the weight of title etc. All 250 are only included if the result is title win and Olympics is given a masters status.

The GOAT points can come from ranking as well as tournaments but looking only at tournaments shows a big reveal which was shocking to me.
Here is the cumulative points from all tournaments at the end of the year for all multi slam winners.

Player19202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
Hewitt135298109132149153156158159161
Safin3374462638291929494
Federer041649120189273347389445491525575586627664670720752779783785
Nadal4280127188236303351382449483554563613654706728741776778
Djokovic33168101127203269331391482545556602650691752785848868
Murray26305878106138162173210274284285287287287287287287
Wawrinka00135681011194167869699100100100100100100100
Alcaraz3476109
Sinner2101438100

GOAT.png
 
Nadal lead over all is so insanely high until age 27 which is where Djokovic starts challenging him for year over year. Federer with very slow start is behind both despite great 2004-07 period for most of his career. Its only with overall longevity that he squeaks past Nadal in the end.

Djokovic takes full control of the race at around age 34 but has underrated peak until then from 27 to 34. He is also following Federer's longevity model and can add to already insane 90 pts lead.

This lead is very similar to overall career of guys like Safin and Wawrinka who peaked for slams but didn't have any sort of consistency.

Sinner is already surpassing both while Alcaraz and Hewitt both had meteoric rise like Nadal.
 
This also settles the discussion of better youngest ever player between Nadal and Alcaraz. While Carlos has higher variety, Nadal in 2008 finished year at number 1 in very deep field while Carlos is settling for number 3 right now. Let's see.
 
With the lengthening of so many masters I don’t think this will be a fair measure going forward. The extra match is gonna reduce top player participation considerably as we already saw last year.
 
With the lengthening of so many masters I don’t think this will be a fair measure going forward. The extra match is gonna reduce top player participation considerably as we already saw last year.
You may be very right but masters have always been the top most atp event and best players during their peak rarely played 250s. As ATP is adding weight to existing 250s to 500s, I think the balance will still remain at the top. And these are multi slam winners so very top players.
 
I don't agree with their "GOAT points".

But to each, its own.

At the end of the day, which specific parameters you use to determine your GOAT and how to weight each value is, at the very least, partially subjective.

For instance, I don't believe that any amount of "total titles" (including ATP 250s or ATP 500s) or "extra Grand Slam finals lost" should overcome a deficit in Grand Slam titles, while others will disagree, and that is only one example.

Another example: I believe the number of Grand Slam titles is the most relevant all-time great críterion, with other criteria being tie-breakers in case two players are tied in the Grand Slam count, while others will disagree with this approach.

What I will say, though, is that Novak Djokovic is so clearly ahead of his competitors, that is extremely difficult to imagine an objective case of him not being the undisputed Open Era GOAT. He simply "has it all". Novak Djokovic is, in my view, objectively the Open Era GOAT.
 
I don't agree with their "GOAT points".

But to each, its own.

At the end of the day, which specific parameters you use to determine your GOAT and how to weight each value is, at the very least, partially subjective.

For instance, I don't believe that any amount of "total titles" (including ATP 250s or ATP 500s) or "extra Grand Slam finals lost" should overcome a deficit in Grand Slam titles, while others will disagree, and that is only one example.

Abother example: I believe the number of Grand Slam titles is the most relevant all-time great críterion, with other criteria being tie-breakers in case two players are tied in the Grand Slam count, while others will disagree with this approach.

What I will say, though, is that Novak Djokovic is so clearly ahead of his competitors, that is extremely difficult to imagine an objective case of him not being the undisputed Open Era GOAT. He simply "has it all". Novak Djokovic is, in my view, objectively the Open Era GOAT.
I don't agree with some of the points but yes it can be PARTIALLY subjective.
 
I don't agree with some of the points but yes it can be PARTIALLY subjective.
I guess it happens accross all sports. Everyone will agree that LeBron James is a superior basketball player than, say, Pau Gasol. Was Bird greater than Magic though? Was Shaq greater thsn Kobe? Was Curry greater than Bird? There're some comparisons that are so close, that there'll always be an element of subjectivity and personal preference.

The same applies even outside sports. Who was a greater film director: Francis Ford Coppola or Martín Scorssese? Sergio Leone or Woody Allen? Stanley Kubrick or Alfred Hitchcock?

When doing comparisons, unless there's a huge gap between two competitors, an element of parcial subjectivity will be there.
 
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Very interesting graph.
Nadal was basically the GOAT almost continuously until he was 33.
And Federer in a virtual race parallel to age has never been.
Djokovic from 27 to 28 years old reached the absolute peak of tennis with 91 points.
 
Very interesting graph.
Nadal was basically the GOAT almost continuously until he was 33.
And Federer in a virtual race parallel to age has never been.
Djokovic from 27 to 28 years old reached the absolute peak of tennis with 91 points.
Bare in mind this is only tournament points. We are not looking for domination or other stuffs so weeks don't come into effect.

Eg. Nadal each year winning RG but having 3 multi slam years between 2005 to 2017 was counterbalanced by Federer winning 11/16 in just 4 years. So I would give some points to dominance as well.

The explosive Federer and Djokovic graph shows that context but Nadal was most consistently great until age 33.
 
Very interesting graph.
Nadal was basically the GOAT almost continuously until he was 33.
And Federer in a virtual race parallel to age has never been.
Djokovic from 27 to 28 years old reached the absolute peak of tennis with 91 points.
Excited to see where Sinner stands in 15 years. Tennis is in a good state now, with Sinner and Raz as stars of the present, and a longevity giant like Novak still hanging around.
 
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UTS manages yearly records for all players and its useful to do year over year comparison on overall achievement of players.
Now if you agree with their GOAT points scenario is totally up to you and I will not get into it but it seems very fair to modern tennis post 2000. Where masters have half the weight of slams and final has half the weight of title etc. All 250 are only included if the result is title win and Olympics is given a masters status.

The GOAT points can come from ranking as well as tournaments but looking only at tournaments shows a big reveal which was shocking to me.
Here is the cumulative points from all tournaments at the end of the year for all multi slam winners.

Player19202122232425262728293031323334353637383940
Hewitt135298109132149153156158159161
Safin3374462638291929494
Federer041649120189273347389445491525575586627664670720752779783785
Nadal4280127188236303351382449483554563613654706728741776778
Djokovic33168101127203269331391482545556602650691752785848868
Murray26305878106138162173210274284285287287287287287287
Wawrinka00135681011194167869699100100100100100100100
Alcaraz3476109
Sinner2101438100

GOAT.png
To get a better perspective it should be year based rather than age based. Federer has long stopped but in the chart he is at the last.
Djokovic is still going on .
If you have that chart please put on
 
Nadal lead over all is so insanely high until age 27 which is where Djokovic starts challenging him for year over year. Federer with very slow start is behind both despite great 2004-07 period for most of his career. Its only with overall longevity that he squeaks past Nadal in the end.

Interesting how his dominance of the clay masters and 500 events comes to bear.
 
Nadal sacrified his results in later stage of his career to win more as a youngster. He should save his body more, play less physical tennis early and he would maybe still play right now. Well, he has to pay a toll now. His one dimensional one trick pony clay tennis agenda also doesn't help.. Hihi.
 
Nadal sacrified his results in later stage of his career to win more as a youngster. He should save his body more, play less physical tennis early and he would maybe still play right now. Well, he has to pay a toll now. His one dimensional one trick pony clay tennis agenda also doesn't help.. Hihi.
Nadal had his best ever start to a season...... On hardcourt..... at age 36....
 
Interesting how his dominance of the clay masters and 500 events comes to bear.
Yes, if he wins 1 master out of 3 on clay and 1 RG, even then he would have decent year. But he usually won multiple masters, another 500 and a RG just from April to early June. Most consistently good player ever with less peaks and valleys.
 
This chart is very interesting. I like seeing how many points each player had after a certain age. For example:

Nadal put up 61 points during his age-22 season to take a 188-49 lead over Federer through their age-22 seasons.

Sinner’s career is tracking eerily similar to Federer’s career.

Marat Safin put up 39 points his 2nd year(age 20), then never topped 19 points again. Talk about wasted talent. But to be fair, many of us might have done the same thing. You can either put in 8 hours a day of working out + 2-3 more hours of watching film/ studying the game, or you can use the money from Safin’s meteoric rise to chase skirts.

Anyway, good stuff here.
 
This chart is very interesting. I like seeing how many points each player had after a certain age. For example:

Nadal put up 61 points during his age-22 season to take a 188-49 lead over Federer through their age-22 seasons.

Sinner’s career is tracking eerily similar to Federer’s career.

Marat Safin put up 39 points his 2nd year(age 20), then never topped 19 points again. Talk about wasted talent. But to be fair, many of us might have done the same thing. You can either put in 8 hours a day of working out + 2-3 more hours of watching film/ studying the game, or you can use the money from Safin’s meteoric rise to chase skirts.

Anyway, good stuff here.
And Andy Murray vs Wawrinka at age 28 had gap of 191. With Wawrinka barely registering.
 
And Andy Murray vs Wawrinka at age 28 had gap of 191. With Wawrinka barely registering.
That makes sense. The tennis season is more than 8 weeks long. The rest of the season matters. What was Stan's career winning pct; something like .630?

The grind of the entire season makes it tough to stay fresh for slams. As a fan, I'd want to see my favorite player making deep runs in all tournaments during the entire calendar year.

That said, I'm more of a fan of Stan than Murray. But there's no question that Murray was a much better player than Stan.
 
That makes sense. The tennis season is more than 8 weeks long. The rest of the season matters. What was Stan's career winning pct; something like .630?

The grind of the entire season makes it tough to stay fresh for slams. As a fan, I'd want to see my favorite player making deep runs in all tournaments during the entire calendar year.

That said, I'm more of a fan of Stan than Murray. But there's no question that Murray was a much better player than Stan.
Stan was on Nothing Major Podcast last week. He said it is very disrespectful to the big 4 and especially Andy Murray to compare himself with them.

I trust players when they say such stuff.
 
Yes, if he wins 1 master out of 3 on clay and 1 RG, even then he would have decent year. But he usually won multiple masters, another 500 and a RG just from April to early June. Most consistently good player ever with less peaks and valleys.

Unsurprisingly his Elo numbers were hitting usually their yearly peak in summer and their trough in winter. Winning lots on clay was the normal and a great year distinguished itself by having much success outside it.
 
Nadal had his best ever start to a season...... On hardcourt..... at age 36....
Because Djokovic was banned in AO 2022. The real reigning champ of AO Djokovic was banned by dirty Covid corrupted politics. Djokovic instead of Medvedev in Australian Open 2022 final and Nadal would get bullied like in 2019 AO, where Nadal played much better tennis than in 2022 btw.

Australian Open 2022 is a CHUMPionship and does not count.
 
DSH sum it up nicely
I think we should speak about three things.

When Djokovic starts his glutein free diet in 2006 instead of too late 2011 - he could easily take 7 or 8 slams more. AO 2007, AO 2009, AO 2010, Wimbledon 2009, Wimbledon 2010, US Open 2008 and US Open 2009 and US Open 2010 and French Open 2009. I did not mention Wimbledon 2007 and 2008 because even glutein Free Djokovic needed more time to learn how to play tennis on grass.

If Djokovic would not be dumb and go earlier on elbow surgery he would take US Open 2016, US Open 2017, Australian Open 2017 and AO 2018. He would not take Wimbledon 2016 because an injured elbow, but he probably take Wimbledon 2017. And of course he would take Australian Open 2017 and 2018 - no doubt about it - actual winners were jokes next to his absolute prime. Another 7 GSlams.

And Covid? Djokovic takes US open 2020, Wimbledon 2020, Australian Open 2022 and US Open 2022. Another 4 slams.

So basically there is a super high probability that glutein free healthy Djokovic without dirty Covid politics takes majority of those slams. Djokovic could have had 19 slams more if not his complete stupidity and stubborn mind.

Realistically (because nobody is perfect) I think Djokovic would have minimum 35 GS by now... He is an underachiever. But still
... 24 GS with his tough circumstances is THE GOAT achievement. Incredible Champion of Champions. The best ever.
 
Yes, we know that Novak feasted in his 30s when the competition was gone :alien:

In the entire tennis open Era, who else won five big titles (one Slam, four Masters) while going just 1-2 against the top 5 for the entire season (yes, only three matches total, was that vacuum era?).
Bonus, a career one-slam QF player, Gastón Gaudio, won a Slam just a year before. :alien:
 
There is no BIG3—just the GOAT and the Lendls. :cool:

Career​
vs Top5​
T5 Weight​
vs Top10​
T10 Weight​
vs T11+​
T11+ Weight​
vs All​
Nole​
203 (123-80) 60.59%​
15.08%​
375 (259-116) 69.07%​
27.86%​
971 (865-106) 89.08%​
72.14%​
1346 (1124-222) 83.51%​
Fed​
179 (104-75) 58.10%​
11.73%​
347 (224-123) 64.55%​
22.74%​
1179 (1027-152) 87.11%​
77.26%​
1526 (1251-275) 81.98%​
Rafa​
156 (93-63) 59.62%​
11.94%​
291 (186-105) 63.92%​
22.26%​
1016 (894-122) 87.99%​
77.74%​
1307 (1080-227) 82.63%​
Lendl​
163 (94-69) 57.67%​
12.44%​
257 (165-92) 64.20%​
19.62%​
1053 (903-150) 85.75%​
80.38%​
1310 (1068-242) 81.53%​
Peak​
vs Top5​
T5 Weight​
vs Top10​
T10 Weight​
vs T11+​
T11+ Weight​
vs All​
Opp Rank​
Opp Elo​
Nole 11-16​
91 (66-25) 72.53%​
19.08%​
174 (140-34) 80.46%​
36.48%​
303 (287-16) 94.72%​
63.52%​
477 (427-50) 89.52%​
18​
2086​
Fed 04-09​
67 (44-23) 65.67%​
13.59%​
121 (91-30) 75.21%​
24.54%​
372 (351-21) 94.35%​
75.46%​
493 (442-51) 89.66%​
26​
2017​
Rafa 08-13​
73 (47-26) 64.38%​
15.60%​
133 (93-40) 69.92%​
28.42%​
335 (313-22) 93.43%​
71.58%​
468 (406-62) 86.75%​
23​
2045​
Lendl 84-89​
74 (52-22) 70.27%​
15.81%​
116 (83-33) 71.55%​
24.79%​
352 (333-19) 94.60%​
75.21%​
468 (416-52) 88.89%​
27​
2014​
Career Finals​
vs Top5​
T5 Weight​
vs Top10​
T10 Weight​
vs T11+​
T11+ Weight​
vs All​
Nole​
85 (53-32) 62.35%​
60.28%​
105 (69-36) 65.71%​
74.47%​
36 (30-6) 83.33%​
25.53%​
141 (99-42) 70.21%​
Fed​
61 (30-31) 49.18%​
39.10%​
98 (58-40) 59.18%​
62.82%​
58 (45-13) 77.59%​
37.18%​
156 (103-53) 66.03%​
Rafa​
64 (36-28) 56.25%​
48.48%​
83 (51-32) 61.45%​
62.88%​
49 (41-8) 83.67%​
37.12%​
132 (92-40) 69.70%​
Lendl​
71 (35-36) 49.30%​
48.97%​
89 (47-42) 52.81%​
61.38%​
56 (46-10) 82.14%​
38.62%​
145 (93-52) 64.14%​
Peak Finals​
vs Top5​
T5 Weight​
vs Top10​
T10 Weight​
vs T11+​
T11+ Weight​
vs All​
Nole 11-16​
47 (32-15) 68.09%​
74.60%​
59 (43-16) 72.88%​
93.65%​
4 (4-0) 100.00%​
6.35%​
63 (47-16) 74.60%​
Fed 04-09​
30 (17-13) 56.67%​
45.45%​
44 (30-14) 68.18%​
66.67%​
22 (20-2) 90.91%​
33.33%​
66 (50-16) 75.76%​
Rafa 08-13​
35 (20-15) 57.14%​
62.50%​
42 (25-17) 59.52%​
75.00%​
14 (12-2) 85.71%​
25.00%​
56 (37-19) 66.07%​
Lendl 84-89​
37 (20-17) 54.05%​
56.92%​
45 (24-21) 53.33%​
69.23%​
20 (19-1) 95.00%​
30.77%​
65 (43-22) 66.15%​
 
I think we should speak about three things.

When Djokovic starts his glutein free diet in 2006 instead of too late 2011 - he could easily take 7 or 8 slams more. AO 2007, AO 2009, AO 2010, Wimbledon 2009, Wimbledon 2010, US Open 2008 and US Open 2009 and US Open 2010 and French Open 2009. I did not mention Wimbledon 2007 and 2008 because even glutein Free Djokovic needed more time to learn how to play tennis on grass.

If Djokovic would not be dumb and go earlier on elbow surgery he would take US Open 2016, US Open 2017, Australian Open 2017 and AO 2018. He would not take Wimbledon 2016 because an injured elbow, but he probably take Wimbledon 2017. And of course he would take Australian Open 2017 and 2018 - no doubt about it - actual winners were jokes next to his absolute prime. Another 7 GSlams.

And Covid? Djokovic takes US open 2020, Wimbledon 2020, Australian Open 2022 and US Open 2022. Another 4 slams.

So basically there is a super high probability that glutein free healthy Djokovic without dirty Covid politics takes majority of those slams. Djokovic could have had 19 slams more if not his complete stupidity and stubborn mind.

Realistically (because nobody is perfect) I think Djokovic would have minimum 35 GS by now... He is an underachiever. But still
... 24 GS with his tough circumstances is THE GOAT achievement. Incredible Champion of Champions. The best ever.
How come he only managed one slam a year for three years smack bang in the middle of his peak and also post-gluten, hmmmmmm?
 
DSH sum it up nicely
Djokovic the most consistent player of all time, no argument, the point i think @Sport is making above. He is most successful as well.
In terms of greatest, one cannot compare eras. But we can compare the Big 3 and the stats do suggest Nadal was the greatest of his era followed by Federer then Djokovic albeit Nadal v Federer is so close it can go either way. 12/24 v 12/40 is very telling
 
How come he only managed one slam a year for three years smack bang in the middle of his peak and also post-gluten, hmmmmmm?
Everyone has their own metrics, for me the Big 3 era hegemony was decided between 2008-2014 as that was the period of time when we got to see them and Murray at or close to their peaks at the same time although Federer was declining post 2010 pretty quickly.
I thought from 2011 onwards Djokovic-Murray would replace Nadal-Federer at the top of the game. The fact Nadal and Federer were still winning slams and big titles for almost 10 years afterwards and basically held off Djokovic and Murray until 2016 when both were much diminished players to me suggests both were just a notch above at their best.
What is mind boggling about Djokovic though is his consistency and how he kept himself in condition mentally and physically to dominate the game post Fedal, which Murray sadly totally failed to do. Murray was unlucky with his hip, but having had a hip replacement myself, Murray's decline cannot be just attributed to a new hip, the reality is, unlike Djokovic he failed to evolve his game to keep up with the changing game, something Djokovic has done better than anyone since Sampras arguably.
 
How come he only managed one slam a year for three years smack bang in the middle of his peak and also post-gluten, hmmmmmm?
Djokovic's game declined in comparison with 2011. He made mistake and should hire Becker or Goran earlier to implement serve and net game and changing game rhytm improvements earlier. Djokovic 2015 or 2016 etc. would dominate 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Also Djokovic tried to make an game adjustments to win French Open which costs him better results on other surfaces. He did not manage pressure well under the pressure of not winning French Open season by season. Clearly Djokovic's Peak game > Nadal's Peak game > Federer's Peak game
 
Djokovic's game declined in comparison with 2011. He made mistake and should hire Becker or Goran earlier to implement serve and net game and changing game rhytm improvements earlier. Djokovic 2015 or 2016 etc. would dominate 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Also Djokovic tried to make an game adjustments to win French Open which costs him better results on other surfaces. He did not manage pressure well under the pressure of not winning French Open season by season. Clearly Djokovic's Peak game > Nadal's Peak game > Federer's Peak game
LOLLLLL. Declining during one's peak, now. I'm sure there must be a Goatkovic video on this.
 
How come he only managed one slam a year for three years smack bang in the middle of his peak and also post-gluten, hmmmmmm?

Just remember, Fed managed only one sole Slam in the entire 6.8 years (Feb 2010 – Dec 2016), right near the middle of his prime (as a top 3 YE player from 2003 to 2019).
 
Just remember, Fed managed only one sole Slam in the entire 6.8 years (Feb 2010 – Dec 2016), right near the middle of his prime (as a top 3 YE player from 2003 to 2019).
He'd already won 16 and was not in the middle of his physical peak during the main chunk of seasons he went slamless. Two of those seasons were also injury-affected.

More deflection.
 
Djokovic fans will never accept that their idol was the biggest beneficiary of the Big 3 in winning so many Major titles in his late years.
:D

Too bad for Fed and Rafa—especially Rafa, who is less than a year difference in age—they became more and more of a pigeon for the GOAT. :cool:
 
Too bad for Fed and Rafa—especially Rafa, who is less than a year difference in age—they became more and more of a pigeon for the GOAT. :cool:
Nadal was 1 year older than Djokovic, but in miles, it was as if the Spaniard was actually 3 years older than the Serbian.
It is therefore not at all surprising that Nadal received a beating from Djokovic in their last match, even though he was playing on the Spanish left-hander's favourite surface.
:D
 
Djokovic fans will never accept that their idol was the biggest beneficiary of the Big 3 in winning so many Major titles in his late years.
:D
And yet they are so insecure that they spend 24/7 at TTW investing on GOAT debate. LOL
 
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Nadal was 1 year older than Djokovic, but in miles, it was as if the Spaniard was actually 3 years older than the Serbian.
It is therefore not at all surprising that Nadal received a beating from Djokovic in their last match, even though he was playing on the Spanish left-hander's favourite surface.
:D
Djokovic played more matches than Nadal at the time of their last match, and he’s been ahead in matches played at the same age for a while now. In terms of mileage, it’s actually quite the opposite if measured by matches played.
 
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